Member Info for NicetoMichu

stock price performance imho.. Amerisur and all the rest.. especially US macro.. all US sneezes in the last few years have seen my p/f or approx. 40 cross sector AIM'ers catch widespread colds or flu's.. that are often very slowly recovered from too..thankfully the US markets have not had a serious colds/flu's in many years.. therefore I very much hope to have downsized my AIM bets across the board ahead of any US markets serious colds/flu's.. (underlying lack of liquidity in AIM is the base problem..... and that has gotten markedly worse this year.... AIM is a sick market generally in recent times.. and that is further discouraging participation .. and that further exacerbating the problem etc.. all imho .. here's to unfrozen Beaufort client monies helping somewhat at least.. and the 'amazingly' low s/p levels of some potentially good on a fundamentals basis AIM stocks helping somewhat too.. eg Amerisur, maybe/hopefully

I have incrementally doubled down here already... and am now early in the process of tripling down here.. so really hope there is an upturn coming :-)

Even if it's in due course i.e. 2019... including a takeover possibility.... I'm prepared to go long haul here.. and twin prop long haul will be a hell of a journey, I expect... and so my last few averaging down incremental bets could be in single figures.. but very hopefully not

I'm pretty clear that this is AT LAST now gaining decent business momentum.. but they did struggle for a long time previously and investors are likely cautious on this share off the back of that...also they were struggling particularly badly in 2017 while the government with paper consultation went endless on .. and so the balance sheet will take a bit more time to seriously strengthen up again - MS JV payment helped granted but growing revenues over many months from on the ground implementations required to give real confidence - off the back of years of smart accounting /private loans etc to keep it from looking truly awful.. and hence the s/p is slow to motor on.. but hopefully it does move meaningfully up soon

If it stays at low/ very low levels - eg 10p to15p range - well into 2019 and these guys deliver clear and growing nett profit thru this year and into next - like we're now expecting - then maybe ASH will get taken over.. eg Morgan Sindall to buy it out on the cheap a distinct possibility in my mind.. but that would still be at a very good premium to todays 12.5p.. not ideal - as this could get to 30p plus in coming few years easily enough in my mind - but 20p would be more than double my money for eg...

Every half decent up tick I check in here and it feels deja vu all over again :-)

Some new blood here with some interesting insights would be useful imho..

but in the absence of that, here's to you being right eventually Moneymunch.. even if that serious breakout occurs for the first time on your 51st time of calling it...

and Tony B sees it as a CERTAIN leak today..

...here's hoping some day soon or soonish this goes meaningful up

and I guess, whatever, your guys numerous postings are better than an empty BB.. maybe :-)

US shale oil is a further key poo driver Colonel.. production levels of it have increased more quickly than expected recently.

I'm all for Amerisur bears and/or PoO bears posting here.. I'm a little bullish on both PoO and Amerisur currently but always like to hear counter opinions... and there are many good AMER bulls posts regularly submitted here.. so good bear ones very welcome too imho..(Indeed there have been good bull cases posted for Amerisur for years in II - anyone remember Hub super bullish on this in 2016.. changed his mind somewhat subsequently granted - and I guess here too.. yet those bull arguments have been very wrong indeed..so far.. but hopefully not going forward.. but it's betting and by definition a game of - at least some - chance

and there was me hoping this would go up off the back of Beaufort monies unfreezing this week.. well not a good start to the week.. alas.. ruff, ruff

Interesting post Andrew and maybe you're right..

To me there might - also ?- still be some unsolved stuff around that plant ownership.. us using it to process on site is one thing - Moz deciding to legally challenge that may well be a no issue granted - but if it was decided better to sell it to raise useful cash, then having title documentation would be required and my guess is that Moz might still have that and might not immediately voluntarily hand over as it might be a useful bargaining chip in any overall settlement

Towards some balance: it's a long long - long - way from $70 back to $30 Brent...$85+ dollar oil was an exceptionally good price .. if Brent stays in the $65-$75 - and WTI whatever equiv- range in 2019 them good Oiler companies can do very decently indeed in terms of bottom line imho.. whether this is a good oiler company remains to be seen.. but if no and a good oiler company takes it over then fine too..

And if PoO does crash I think I can name you up to a 100 AIM oilers whose s/p's will capitulate from current levels far more than Amerisur will . .. that's not to say Amerisur can't go meaningfully lower, of course it can.. but many other AIM oilers could go down 70% plus from even current 'low' levels or go under...and alas I may well hold say 10 or more of those oilers as I type.. but which 10 out of the around 25 I hold I'm not sure :-)

Generally, having luckily done decently in the AIM oiler space over the years so far, the biggest take away I have is that I continually have to accept the risk I'm taking is far greater than I phantom, even including understanding the size of the risk I'm taking more and more as time goes by.. eg this is still a relatively benign marco environment.. Imagine how AIM stocks would react generally if US markets went down 25% … Altogether, for anybody new to the game, I offer that a good way to see AIM in its current semi broken sate is an indirect tax on the wealthy :-)

''the poor sould a few weeks back and got suckered by the mm's. he lost 10% in no time at all''

Not to mention, Colonel & Margaret, the poor souls 5 years back and 4 years back and 3 years back and 2 years back and 1 year back who have so far lost say 70% or 60% or 50% or 40% or 30% etc.. by being suckered by a more awful again type of MM : manky management !!

I think it's to do with the plant and not the gold they might have processed ANDis there not a process to go through to take LEGAL ownership of that Moz plant ? ( it should end up 'ours' in the end, but having the plant listed as a guarantee in a loan agreement and having legal ownership over it are two different things until a legal process is completed is my guess ?)

jointhedots..

plenty of which makes sense to me.. for your quoted reasons and a few other I too expect poo to rally at least somewhat in coming week.... if this happens, I'd like to think that would help Amerisur ….but from recent history one certainly can't be sure on that, alas..

Generally, this is ongoingly a mare of a share.. and hopefully that will change -in a good way, as it can of course still go down from here - soon.. but I have been saying similar for a long time now.. ruff ruff.. and good luck to all fellow longs on their BETS here

Perhaps It’s just you and me Dibs.. a long long tunnel .. but I see some light

Thanks for chart gaps colonel .. always useful .. and let’s be having you - going up - this coming week Amerisur .. mongrels would have been ashamed to walk alongside your sad self in recent years .. I’m not asking for a top dog showing from you - I’m a dreamer but not deluded- just nice to see you not walking on your lonesome for once .

My hopes are starting to rise here.. but too early to get even half way excited yet imho.. but if we push on up past 12p in coming days then I will start to get a little excited.

Ps: Malcay is certainly hit and miss and Amerisur and plenty of others have certainly seen him very wrong so far, but for every miss you guys have mentioned below, towards balance, I can mention a hit too, from his bucket lists since inception in 2016.... eg's hits off the top of my head : JOG, Ithaca, Faroe, Premier, SDX, Reabold, Hurricane etc.. (some have been hit, miss, and either or both again ..etc... if viewed over a few years too.... eg Sound, Hurricane)

Also I note that his bucket list was up well over 100% in 2016.. ad I'm very thankful to him for that...granted it performed poorly in 2017 and will be poor this year maybe/probably.... Aside: earlier this year on I posted a long mail on this on II with lots of colour on his hits and misses and overalls..if bored and if I can remember which board I posted on I may retrieve it someday and post it here... but, in truth, probably not..

that this just keeps going down..

...but, as promised, I did a small top up just now as it has hit 13's p.. only two more bullets left and would fire those in 11's and in single figures.. very hopefully I don't get to fire them..

This has turned into a real shocker of a bet for me now.. but it could bounce back by 100% or more readily enough on any sort of decent buying volume.. as we've seen recently before.. very hopefully.. imho..

no threshold passing sale notification RNS's from the over 3 per cent brigade in yonks here I see. According to midatech web site as at mid September 2018 Woodford with 20% and L&G with 15% are by far the biggest institutional holders.. City Finanical and Wings with 5% are next.. but this is so illiquid that it might even be a smaller player(s) selling out by increment that's doing this massive damage.. Have you any colour on who is/might be selling here George Inn ? What were woodfords or L&G or CF for eg peak holding here previously for eg (I need to read up on notification requirements to see what he/ others would have to notify when.. apart from under/over 3% )

PS: thanks for colour on IMM silverknight but still not for me at this time. best wishes with your bet there..

Well said Major Thomas on how market makers work. I think you said similar to me previously workover - or someone did - and I let it side, but: while very open to being corrected, my clear understanding is a market maker takes positions on their own books and even if for very short periods of time they are still, by definition, 'at risk' and the spread is their reward/buffer for the risk they are taking. While they generally will have very quick unwind/match options on what the have bought or sold, they don't always have another counterparty to unwind their position too immediately and in that instance if their role as liquidity facilitator has seen then take positions without visible immediate full unwinding options and in the intervening time before unwinding there has been volatility against/in favour of their position, this can result in an unwind at a loss/profit, even including their spread. PS; some of the spreads on AIM become ridiculously wide because the market maker doesn't really want any transacting in that name at that time as there are no immediate options visible to them at to unwind positions they would take on their books, and if the price goes against them while sitting on that position the very wide spread quoted is what they deem fair buffer/reward for the risk they will be taking.

Good to be cynical PublicHeel .. I wish I had been more so over the years.. and it's Nigeria....which is fabulously corrupt, in fairness - loved the post about the ministers brother in law and sister btw.. if that was all we had to worry about we'd be over the line already?! Its his 15 cousins that are perhaps currently the core focus?! - but towards balance I note the last line in that below posted Mirabaud comment ''We understand that talks are close to being consummated with the company hoping to report progress within the next week or so.'' (consummated with who on what could is debatable I grant you but even if the final revised deal off the back of which the implementation programme comes it's still forward motion in short order, hopefully.. so I'm still pretty positive here and will patiently wait and see ) Generally, the medium term prize here could be very big indeed if it comes together as we hope imho.. but, as always, you place your bets and takes your chances..

and at least lets have the Bird grow it before he chokes on it .. momentum can be gotten back here with incremental progressive news here thru rest of 2018 and then beyond.. e,g. phased news release around 'good' additional alluvial and starter hard rock agreements and Moz requisitioned plant monetisation, one way or other ... indeed If Mr Bird gets good momentum going from here I see an opportunity for this being up to 1.5p by year end.. a BIG if, of course

btw : did you post on II workover and under what name ? (Trap oil..now Jersey.. comes to mind just now..if yes your Sqz call was a very good one.. and I missed that..but maybe i'm way off on who you were there)

docisacroc has only been in here for 9 ish months workover and has an average of at worst 13p.. he's savvy and generally posts good analysis here imho.. he's looking forward constructively because he's not been weighed down by the abjectness for long here, unlike many of the rest of us.. and I'd do the same in his boots.. and he might well do well/very well here in the end.. alas for every one of him there are many many in here for years with averages in 20's, 30's, 40's etc. and it's them that should be felt for imho.. long term holders here have likely been smashed to smithereens, unfortunately.. but this can still come back a good ways at least imho..

For those unhappy with negative sentiments being expressed here - be they fully accurate or not.. ditto positive sentiments have some inaccuracies, unintentional or otherwise, too no doubt - a way to look at it might be people are just trying to figure/rationalise why the s/p keeps going down here, for YEARS now.

A good b/b imho has a balance of positive and negative, including very positive and very negative.. and the one constant that I offer after years in this small cap O&G betting game is that I'd wish I'd listened to the negatives more and the positives less.. I'd be richer - although and even more cynical person granted - now.

PS: I work on the laws of averages workover and so hold at least 10 producers/close to producing and at least 10 others ie explorers/pre pre producers/investor co's at any one time.

Producers/close to are mostly the 'usual suspects': Hurricane, SDX, Amerisur, President, Savannah, Trinity, Tullow- but no longer Premier - and Columbus and Parkmead etc..

'others' are generally random and so anybody's guess on next big up and/or down and so I'll not bother elaborating here much now... but Lansdowne is a current favourite and hopefuls for comebacks in next 6 months are : Prospex and Pantheon and Zenith and even Rose

Good luck to all on their BETS