Member Info for Nastynick

Ripley “Yet again childish posts from the gang of one share only posters !!!”

Exactly, when will you stop

Sorry the message I want to send keeps being edited by the system as sooon as I select post message

Less than 55,000 battles a day 3-4 months after first oil would be a problem or plateau forecast is revised down by 20-30%. We avoid these scenarios and its game on

Flow rates likely to put Sea Lion FID in doubt:

• 20–30%.

• Early signs of reservoir depletion or unexpected decline curve.

Temporary commissioning hiccups (e.g., 40–50,000 bopd in month 1) are not a major issue if they recover quickly.

• It’s sustained underperformance after commissioning that signals reservoir or well design issues.

Summary:

✅ Flow rates likely to put Sea Lion FID in doubt:

• 20–30%.

• Early signs of reservoir depletion or unexpected decline curve.

A “successful flow rate” to increase Sea Lion FID probability would be:

• 80–100,000 bopd stable production by late 2025

• Minimal technical hiccups or unexpected decline curves

• Positive operator updates confirming on-spec performance

This outcome would materially de-risk Sea Lion FID

Falling not following in message below

If Navitas confirms oils flow rate is 80% or higher of the daily rate of 120k then chances of Sealion FID increase to 95%+ that’s the connection.

So anything like 95k to 120k gets a massive green light even 85k is acceptable. Start following by 30%+ fid still on but banks will want more assurances.

Chill I’m sure all will be spiffing.

GLA

Rockhopper is overwhelmingly institutionally owned, with ~80% held by investment funds and asset managers, signaling high credibility and influence from financial institutions. Hedge funds hold a meaningful share (7–8%), while management retains very little skin in the game (

Institutional investors own roughly 79–80% of Rockhopper’s shares , with significant stakes held by:

• Aberdeen Group Plc: ~17.1% (≈109.6 million shares) 

• Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management: ~14.3% (≈91.6 million shares) 

• SRM Advisors (Monaco) SAM: ~7.67% (≈49.1 million shares) 

• HBOS Investment Fund Managers: ~7.61% 

• Barclays Wealth Management: ~5.0% 

• HSBC Global AM UK: ~3.7% ()

Institutional ownership rose from ~46% in March to approximately 80%, reflecting growing confidence from larger investors.

I’m only top slicing when we get to £20 ;)

Suck on that Ripley

GLA

Built upon the adventures of Robert Ripley and his travels across the globe searching for extraordinary people, unusual artifacts, and unbelievable things, Ripley’s embraces the spirit of discovery.

Since 1918, we’ve been curating curiosity, beginning with stories to fill newspaper cartoons and books……and fantasising over top slicing shares.

I choose to not believe it.

Typical lefty response calling me a nazi, I believe that’s hate speech and comrade Starmer locks you up for that….off to the gulag with you. I’m not discussing dividends, Rock is in great place, it’s all about FID.

GLA including Rolf

I agree, nothing materially has changed since last submission, so it will need to be some kind of ratification exercise with up date on costs due to interests. I don’t know if the “rogue” arbitrator needs replacing and the whole thing running again, in which case it’s out in the long grass. Either way we will win but ROI may opt for pain in the future rather than today. Main prize is FID and that starts with Shenandoah production oil flow rates being met.

GLA

“Perfect money for a few pokes in Isobel.”

I like this a lot!

Appraising Isobel would add substantially to the value of Rockhopper once appraised, assuming we have FID and drill holes for Sealion next year and then fund a few holes to appraise Isobel, share price would be between £2.50 and £3.50, I shared this earlier. No reason for Isobel revenue to take a decade once appraised and demonstration the scale of the new oil province I would expect more money to flow in to accelerate oil production and revenues.

Ownership Breakdown Highlights

From Simply Wall St:

• Institutions (including Aberdeen) = 79.5%

• Hedge funds = 7.67%

• General Public (retail) = 10.2%

Aberdeen Group’s stake is institutional, not retail.

• Retail investors collectively hold around 5–10% of Rockhopper’s shares, depending on the data source.

• Aberdeen offers mutual funds and retail products—but its stake in Rockhopper comes from its institutional arm, not from those retail channels

From Chat GPT

If Sea Lion FID happens end-2025 and Isobel is proven as a 1-billion-barrel resource in 2026, it would be a massive de-risking and value event. You could reasonably expect Rockhopper shares to trade at 250–350p (4–6× current price) as the market prices in Sea Lion cashflows and the enormous optionality of Isobel.

This is from ChatGPT and why I think it’s worth appraising Isobel in parallel with Sealion prep. Rock would then be a much bigger fish to buy and any takeover talk I would double the above prices.

I am no oil expert but can’t the MODU being sent to drill the Sealion holes before the FPSO arrives also put a few holes in Isobel to appraise it. With an operator update on Isobel, this becomes much more than just a single oil reservoir play and becomes an established frontier and will attract a lot more interest to expedite the production. For us would add multiples to the share price.

Anyway this is my hope.

GLA