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This would be my side bet, SMBC for the senior debt raise.

Looks really good as they not affected by Blackrocks ESG nonsense. Money is money to them. FID looks inevitable.

GLA

SMBC Group is a globally regressive bank when it comes to funding fossil fuels, providing USD 212.1 billion to fossil fuels since the signing of the Paris Agreement.

SMBC’s Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) finance keeps increasing even though new LNG projects are not needed in a climate safe world. SMBC has been Japan’s top financier of fossil gas in Southeast Asia since the Paris Agreement.

Sounds like my kind of bank lol, anti woke. Looks an outstanding candidate for raising the senior debt as Japanese banks haven’t been contaminated by the ESG and woke mind virus

GLA

bb3 don’t sweat it, €2.5m is going to be like a pimple on the ass of an elephant (or should i say sealion). it’s all about fid **** or bust!

gla

Someone off loaded a lot today, maybe. It was garbled lol, trying to short us to 13p.

GLA

Here comes the (delayed) sun

Nikb

Could be for insurance claim, this is material so we should get an RNS.

GLA

Impatience (please build Time Machine to transport me to October)

Is always manyana unfortunately. The long suffering rock holders know the drill by now ( no pun intended). A positive RNS next week would lift the mood.

Sounds from watching the video they need about $50M, not that much in grand scheme of things but you can see how the full OM award would have mostly plugged the gap, so annoying. I do think they will reapply for arbitration but as we know this takes forever. FID is everything get that this year and we have a solid base, share price £1 in my opinion.

GLA

Wow sounds like disastrous AGM! Next year let’s not have one

Thanks for the update, the $60M for FID sounds disappointingly too high, especially if that assumes a further $31M insurance pay out. That’s $91M total.

I don’t know why it’s so high and means dilution hence price drop before and now after the ICSID debacle

Good luck AGM team, hopefully I will be there next year at table 84.

Thanks for any feedback you can give to this forum.

GLA

FID is likely to be October due to the bank due diligence which is 4-6 months from May, so earliest end of August but more likely September/October.

AGM:

For me it’s all about FID. Questions I like answers to are 1. When do we get the insurance payment? 2 How much more funding do we need to find to satisfy FID requirements? 3. What are the options to satisfy any funding gap, would they consider current investors given shares options to raise this?

Thank you and good luck all going

I asked ChatGPT if Isobel/Elaine was 500 million barrels of oil when appraised what would be impact to rockhopper share price:

To estimate how 500 million barrels of recoverable oil from the Isobel and Elaine discoveries could impact Rockhopper Exploration’s share price, we’ll walk through a valuation model using key assumptions.

⸻

🛢️ Step 1: Value of the Oil (Gross)

Assume:

• 500 million barrels recoverable

• Long-term oil price: $70/bbl

• Netback profit per barrel (after costs): $20–25/bbl (conservative range)

Gross project value (NPV before tax and discounting)

= 500m bbl × $22.5 (midpoint netback)

= $11.25 billion

⸻

💼 Step 2: Rockhopper’s Net Share

Rockhopper owns 35% of the North Falkland Basin (Sea Lion + Isobel/Elaine) via their carried interest with Navitas Petroleum.

Rockhopper’s share:

= $11.25 billion × 35%

= $3.94 billion

Apply a risked discount to account for appraisal uncertainty, regulatory hurdles, and time value (pre-FID):

• Apply a risk factor of 0.4 (typical pre-FID for contingent resources)

• Discounted NPV to Rockhopper:

= $3.94 billion × 0.4

= $1.58 billion

⸻

🧮 Step 3: Per Share Impact

Assuming 640 million shares in issue:

• $1.58 billion ÷ 640 million = $2.47 per share (USD)

• Convert to GBP at ~1.27 exchange rate:

= £1.95 per share

If you want the further analysis the long pole in the tent is the due diligence on the financing mandate which takes 4-6 months. Assuming we get our financing in place i.e. the insurance claim plus some funds to make up the $54M and this isn’t on the critical path then earliest for FID is August but low probability, September is possible but more likely October. So FID should be September/October and we look fully primed for that.

By the way I got ChatGPT to correct itself several times, we need $54M as our contribution to FID the OM award would have done it, insurance plus a slight equity raise or additional fund of $25M would do it, peanuts in grand scheme of things

FID this year is a 70% chance delay to H1 2026 is 15% chance, doesn’t happen 15% chance. I will take those odds all day.

GLA

Here’s a refined look at who is most likely to farm into Sea Lion alongside Rockhopper and Navitas—and why they’re strong contenders:

⸻

✅ 1. Major IOCs & North Sea Producers

Equinor / Shell UK JV

• Equinor has deepwater project experience (Rosebank) and recently merged North Sea oil assets with Shell to create a regional powerhouse .

• As a newly formed JV targeting large-scale North Sea projects, Sea Lion is a logical target.

TotalEnergies

• Actively redeploying capital into North Sea E&P (e.g., Tyra II, gas redevelopment in Danish sector)  .

• As an integrated IOC with a high allocation to offshore projects, it has both appetite and balance sheet.

⸻

2. Private Equity & Energy-Focused Funds

Firms like Bluewater Energy, EIG, or HPS typically back mid-stage offshore developments.

They have supported similar deals in the North Sea and could provide required equity (~£100–150 m).

⸻

3. Asian National Oil Companies (NOCs)

CNOOC or PetroChina look to broaden global portfolios and may participate via farm-ins, offering non-dilutive capital and execution credibility.

⸻

📅 Likely Farm-In Timing & Process

• Post-FID (H2 2025): Once debt and equity funding structures are confirmed, a partner will be invited.

• Securing a farm-in immediately before or shortly after FID allows for smooth equity commitment from the partner.

I would like a few drills in Isobel early on with MODU,

Updated NAV Uplift from Isobel Appraisal

Using revised assumptions:

• Contingent resource: 200 million barrels

• Recovery factor: 35%

• Rockhopper WI: 35%

• Netback: $25/barrel

• Shares: 644 million

Net recoverable barrels = 200 M × 35% × 35% = 24.5 million barrels

Total value = 24.5 M × $25 = $612.5 million

Per-share NAV uplift = $612.5 M ÷ 644 M ≈ $0.95/share USD

Convert at ~$1.27 USD/GBP → ~75p per share potential NAV uplift.

Asked ChatGPT could the modu appraise Isobel summary was:

✅ Bottom Line

• ✅ Yes, the contracted MODU could technically be deployed for Isobel/Elaine appraisal wells.

• ❗️But commercially, it’s more likely that appraisal drilling will require either a contract extension or separate contract post‑Phase 1.

• Critical prerequisites include: rig contract terms, cash flow from Sea Lion, and environmental/regulatory approval for Phase 3.

1. Post-FID MODU Mobilization

• Expect a drilling rig (MODU) contract to be awarded immediately after FID—currently expected H2 2025.

2. Rig Selection Criteria

• Likely to be a mobile offshore drilling unit, capable of anchoring and handling multi-well clusters over the site.

3. Call-Off Timing

• Contract awards typically come with a 2–3 year mobilization window, aligning with the planned late H1 2026 drilling start.

⸻

✅ Summary

• ✔️ FPSO: MoU in place.

• ⚙️ Subsea equipment: agreements signed.

• 🛢️ MODU: Discussions ongoing, contract not yet finalized.

• 📅 Expect MODU commitment post-FID, in time to support a late 2026 drill commencement

About $1.6 billion per year