Member Info for Nastynick

I think price is down because US oil inventories are above expectations so Brent future dropped and most oilies are juts given a broad brush mark down.

GLA

Impatience

As stated previously with the cup and handle pattern, share price should be circa 63p in theory. No reason to think this won’t happen in coming week(s) ready for FID take off. Careful with those shorts!

GLA

Impatience

50% premium to be bought out is too low, given the potential of Rock in my opinion. Once FID is in place I would consider a share price below £2 as low ball. This equates to what? About £1.2billion, still chump change for the big boys and they make many multiples off this.

GLA

Impatience

Pattern was a cup and handle, we should break to 63p ish if the theory holds true.

GLA

Impatience

Grimuphere, does sound like Godders again, his advice or deramping didn’t work previously not sure why he thinks it will work again. I thought the guy had 1% of all shares? Not sure what his game now is.

GLA

Impatience

Furthermore the 328p doesn’t include Isobel/Elain which will be the 3rd phase of production after final appraisals, this is as big as Sealion (and probably bigger). So you may want to double that 328p.

GLA

Impatience and enjoy the day

It’s funny how we don’t get “TheChessMaster” or “godders” or “aimlessinvestor” any more? They were deramping back when we were 12-15p, now we have exploded upwards I guess they got the prices they wanted. not everyone here is straight up.

GLA

Impatience

Crofty

328p, I would be happy with that, enough fast cars and dancing girls to see my days out.

GLA

Impatience

Sealion - Once it gets up to 150kbbls/d you are around $750M per year profit for RKH. In total for Sealion northern and central you are talking 730M Barrels at say $35 profit would be $25billion, at 35% for RKH is almost $9billion. This is only Sealion. Current market cap $331M.

GLA

impatience

GLA

impatience

Assuming the 55kbbls/d at $60 selling and $25 costs would be $35 x 55,000 x 365 =$702,625,000.00 per year. Rockhopper gets 35% revenues so multiply by 35% is $245,918,750 year in year out. Without adding any future uptick in bbls/d, Isobel or any other development.

Someone correct my maths here if I have this wrong.

GLA

impatience

Definite cup and handle pattern, if it breaks through we will be 63p ish, hold on to your panties.

GLA

Impatience

Although we are waiting for the big FID announcement there will be clues prior? Will Navitas announce fund raise via Bonds for example? So although FID may be achieved mid 2025, one would have to believe that a lot of the mechanics to get there in terms of financing are being worked now or very soon. Hence this could rise sooner than FID (like anytime) …..exciting times

GLA

Impatience

Still looks like a cup and handle pattern to me. if it does break out on the upside will be 63-65p. Fingers crossed.

GLA

Impatience

Thanks for the update Norseman!

here comes the FID

GLA

Inpatience

“JPDM, thank you very much for your comments and I pretty much concur with what you are saying. However please give me your thoughts on is it a H&S forming because if it is and if it plays out it is signalling we are heading to around 22p.” You posted this in March NO8.

Then in April you posted that you had bought £350K in RKH at almost 40p.

You are not exactly inspiring confidence that your posts are in any way predictive in nature.

Trot on.

GLA

FID is coming

Impatience

I’m not one for censorship, so garbled cabn rattle out his 20 a day posts. Sometimes he is ramping, sometimes deramping. I’m 99% of the time bullish on Rock and heavily invested, so I will have bias and like it when Garbled is ramping. If he became super irritating to me I would put him in filter (like the chess master idiot). I make my own decisions on investing here, decide myself who has useful information and take accountability for my wins/losses. I am just ordinary Joe with no industry knowledge or inside info, the forum is a bit of fun with occasional experts popping in.

Have great weekend

GLA

FID is coming

Impatience

Just be careful any shorter we bounce pretty well off any lows and this could jump to mid 60s very quickly.

GLA

Impatience

In today’s world $1 billion isn’t a great deal of money. The risk on that investment is extremely low as they are investing in an asset that will be required for hundreds of years still and the return on investment is huge and solid. Premier Oil had their own issues and overstretched themselves with Sealion and hence stagnation. Navitas has moved this along at good speed since becoming the operator and checked all the boxes. FID will happen because the business case is VERY solid and break even model for oil price is so low. The plan I believe was for Shenandoah to flow before they announce FID on Sealion as it’s a great jumping off point, the NEXT BIG THING. The fatal accident with the FPSO delayed Shenandoah by 6 months. We are still on for mid 2025, June, July August….who cares. Trump tarriffs will be sorted in a month or so, POO will go up and down just as it always has. renewables will go up and down as well because these still have to be commercially viable. Stay calm and hold on to your pants, when next break out comes it could be surprising. my guess is a break to mid 60s soon, after FID I am now not so sure but high 70s to 80s seems very plausible.

GLA

Impatience

I’m not an expert on patterns but looks close, if so it’s bullish sign and breakouts will be mid 60s.

GLA

Impatience

My take is fill yer boots! oil everywhere, how did Desire miss I’ll never know, I try not to think about it.

GLA

Impatience