Member Info for Nastynick

Placing vs open offer done for speed and certainty of funds. Open offer looks like a token gesture. I guess the Italians and ICSID screwed us. If we had the full award by now we would have all the cash we needed. Business isn’t fair and the board has to weigh things up. Now we should have plenty of funds and very low risk of future dilution. Let’s move on FID it is, happy share price is holding up, 800 will be grabbed, £1+ at FID, multiples after this as province takes off.

GLA

The placement was a necessary evil and although it’s a bitter pill for us LTH to swallow you have to look at bigger picture. Without FID this share will languish forever, so if we have to give a little profit away to realise MUCH bigger future returns so be it. FID is the prize and road to riches. Can’t wait for that day to be honest, whatever the share price wile will finally be on our way!

GLA

Sea Lion alone — assuming full Phase 1–3 development — supports a valuation of £2.00–£3.10/share for Rockhopper.

• The market is currently pricing in political risk, FID uncertainty, and development delay — hence the large discount.

• Once FID is confirmed and first oil approaches (2027–2029), a re-rate to reflect underlying value is highly likely.

Add in an appraised Isobel assuming same size as Sealion (likely to be much bigger) then:

Here’s the projected share price trajectory for Rockhopper (RKH) from 2025 to 2035, based on:

• Sea Lion only through Phase 1 (2028) and Phase 2 (2029),

• Isobel appraisal announced mid-2028 and re-rated over 2 years,

• A final share price peak of £6.20 when both fields are fully valued.

🔹 Key Milestones:

• 📅 Jan 2028: Phase 1 first oil → significant re-rating begins

• 📅 Jan 2029: Phase 2 first oil → price nears full Sea Lion value (~£3.10)

• 📅 Mid-2028: Isobel appraisal confirmed → new re-rating toward ~£6.20/share over 2 years

Tim smith another deliberate deramper who tries to lower confidence.

We are 99.9% there for FID and you are trying to sow all the seeds of doubt. I will be in this for a long time and when they hit £2+ on the way up to £4-6 I will be celebrating big time.

I’m already budgeting for hob nobs are next years AGM

GLA

ZYX, you may have a lot of the industry terms but you haven’t been correct on the commercial aspects to date and always you are in the negative camp I feel but shroud it in techno jargon. FID will be the this year I thought September/ October due to the time assigned from due diligence from the bank for the senior debt. it looks like one condition from Navitas/ bank was rock has its finance in place. So yesterday that box got ticked, Shenandoah oil ticked another box. I think there will be a further news item on ticking any last boxes for FIG regulation but my guess is now more September than October. Those trying to trade may got caught out. FID is 90%+ nailed on this year only very slim chance it slips into Q1/26.

When we get FID i think given appetite we are circa £1.

GLA

Buzz you are such a deramping mupoet. If FID happens and it triggers the dilution in shares, don’t you think the fact we have FID will far outweigh any dilution, that’s the whole beauty of this arrangement. The dilution is greater than I expected BUT basically will insure us against any mishaps and also lead us in Sealion Phase 2, which will start very quickly after first oil on Phase 1, meaning the share price gets to £4-6 in 2-3 years. FID is everything and opens up the basin, Rock are now talking about Basin in their comms not just Sealion. If we appraise another 1,2,3,4Billion of total barrels of oil equivalent over the next 3-5 years the multiples in share price are staggering (assume we keep 35%stake) which would lead to significant dividends. FID is when the train truly leaves the station, I’m in for next 3-5 years if that happens,

GLA

All aboard the oil bonanza express

Overall great news , FID is nailed on, I think the dip and bounce was people and investors digesting the news as there was a lot in those RNSs. Bit annoying the new investors will get such a fantastic deal, but this is the way of it anyway. So long as we break £1+ by end of year (which I fully expect) all is good. I do expect us to prod Isobel still and I like the talk of Sealion Phase 2, this is shaping up to be the monster we hoped it would be.

GLA

Here comes the oil sump

JPDM,

I actually preferred your elastic band theory. That’s said I think break through 75p next stop is 85-90p, post FID I expect us now to be £1:10 to £1:20.

GLA it’s all guess work.

Jeez loving the ride today, making £10K every hour certainly lifts the mood

GLA

I don’t think we will see a big change in sp in the morning…but always welcome to see a rise.

That said the news is so significant in getting us to FID as I think the rest is nailed on. My expectation is that we will get some fits and starts but steady increases to 80p+ prior FID announcement, then circa £1 after that.

Over next few years it will not be as quiet as we think. I have said all along I think Isobel will get prodded and also we may get a farm in (or even worse a take over offer).

If we are still in the game as a company in 3 years time and Isobel is the 1 billion barrel asset we hope, then yes the sp should be north of £4.

GLA

I know no one believed me when I said they would get to 40p end of March and 62p was deffo on the cards before the ICSID corrupt outcome (which we will still win but it will be gravy later) . I did say Sealion FID was dependant on Shenandoah many months ago when some doubted and that has been seen to be correct.

I’m not here to be the messiah, but I do think Isobel will get prodded somewhere in between the Sealion phase 1 drills, as it puts the whole province into another dimension. I know many disagree agian, but I would do it as a business man. Marlon’s sump and Oilbrats its full of stars all proven up. Share value will be off the scale. Let’s see. first things first we need the FID.

GLA

Here comes the oil province

Shenandoah results are very much linked to Sealion FID. Navitas wants to raise more money, don’t you think banks want to assess their ability to pay off current debts as part of due diligence? Having guaranteed significant revenue stream from Shenandoah ticks that box,

Hence now Sealion FiD 90%.

Game on, never been more excited about Rock and it looks like I will be buying the chocolate hob nobs for next years AGM

GLA

At present forecasts Rockhopper’s 12-month analyst target ranges from 65p to 105 p, with an average around 81 p .

• Independent project-level models suggest that if Sea Lion and related upstream projects go into full production, Rockhopper’s equity stake (35%) could justify a valuation of ~£5.86 per share, or ~586p—though this reflects long-term full-cycle value and assumes financing and production all succeed

Here comes the sun

Sea Lion FID is now largely a matter of execution. The technical and regulatory groundwork is done. The final dependency is financing — and that process is well underway with strong precedent from Shenandoah. Unless oil prices crash or credit markets seize up, FID in late 2025 is highly probable (≈90%).

ChatGPT

Subsea 7 worked on/ working on Shenandoah, would make sense for Navitas to use someone they have experience with ;)

The jigsaw is nicely being completed

GLA

With the Shenandoah news FID for Sealion is now 90% chance of happening, rise of 25%. I was out this afternoon if I had seen the article I would have added more Rock.

Surprised we haven’t seen a reaction, could get very interesting early next week.

tick tock, all the pieces are falling into place.

GLA

The main events are Shenandoah oil production rates being as expected or better which supports Sealion FID. It’s frustrating as Shenandoah news should be put by now, but either way we are now talking 12 weeks to know if we are going to finally develop Sealion or not.

GLA

I don’t know why we are talking about Argentina I don’t see them as relevant to FID. we know they don’t like the FI being British and have made their stance. We will still carry on regardless, they are a busted flush, they have played their hand, the only thing I can see is they retract their dumb position and try and collaborate but we don’t need that, just it would be a bonus.

GLA

I guessed we might be a little volatile for a few days. it’s all on Shenandoah now. fingers crossed, if it’s positive I expect a spike up.

GLA

I think we will know in 10 weeks from now, but by 6 weeks we should have a good idea and the share price will reflect the confidence by then Im sure.

GLA