Member Info for Nastynick

The announcement says no warrants as part of OO. 1 per 50 sounds pretty frugal, I haven’t done any calcs, would expect anything from 1:8 to 1:12. Assume 1:10, that’s 10% of holding with a potential 50% immediate uplift in price, so it’s at best a 5% gain, which is ok but I’m not exactly popping the champagne on it. At 1:50 it becomes completely insignificant. If I get a chance I will top up a little and hope the longer game nets multiples of today’s share price.

GLA

GLA

Mirasol

I am missing the argument, if there is one? personally they can spend their money on fast cars and women (which is my preference) but they can equally spend it on Barry Manilow CDs and Elvis costumes. The main thing is we get FID and that’s it.

GLA

Islanders were consulted and FID is going ahead. Do you think the Crofters in Scotland had the authority to change the North Sea oil business when it was started? The only demise of that is climate change religion activists and loons like Ed Millibrain. I won’t spend any more air time on it, but I guess it’s a good sign that the only thing that we can dream up that may stop FID is the idea that farmers don’t want to be rich….give me a break!

GLA

FID is happening, most likely month is September, outside chance of October. Fill yer boots.verified by Chat GPT ;)

I think some are grasping at straws with FI Election, unless they vote Ed Millibrain in FID is nailed on. by the way that communist has two brain cells and they are both fighting for third place.

GLA

Navitas is down because they are converting bonds into equity, which is a very sensible approach and gives them much better base for fund raising for Sealion and Shenandoah south. Regardless it will dilute them a little hence relative small drop today. The beauty of our upcoming dilution is that it is contingent on FID, hence we got the initial drop then a realisation, so we have held firm. Another good play from Sam. I think he has played it very well. OM award could pay for Isobel appraisals….just saying

GLA

This scenario assumes tie-back to the existing Sea Lion FPSO, lowering infrastructure costs compared to a standalone field.

• If recoverable resources approach 200–300 million barrels (as some early models suggest), the NPV could easily exceed $5 billion.

• A phased Sea Lion-Isobel development makes the basin far more commercial and financeable, enhancing Rockhopper’s NAV and future farm-out potential.

Ugh message keeps getting cut off basically chatGPT says yes for very low cost Isobel can be done around Sealion drills.

• Timeline: drilling and testing could occur within a single summer weather window (Nov–Apr), with results in

🧭 Strategic Fit with Sea Lion

• Isobel is within tieback distance to Sea Lion’s proposed FPSO (Phase 1).

• Rockhopper and Navitas have already discussed its future potential for Phase 3 development (post-Sea Lion).

• Appraising Isobel now would create low-cost optionality and enhance full-field economics via future production uplift.

• The existing 3D seismic dataset is good, so drill targeting is de-risked.

⸻

💰 Cost & Timing Estimate

• A deepwater appraisal well in the Falklands might cost ~$40–50 million gross (could drop with campaign efficiency).

• A 2–3 well program could be bundled into a shared rig mobilization, either with Sea Lion early drilling or a dedicated campaign post-FID.

• Timeline: drilling and testing could occur within a single summer weather window (Nov–Apr), with results in

🧭 Strategic Fit with Sea Lion

• Isobel is within tieback distance to Sea Lion’s proposed FPSO (Phase 1).

• Rockhopper and Navitas have already discussed its future potential for Phase 3 development (post-Sea Lion).

• Appraising Isobel now would create low-cost optionality and enhance full-field economics via future production uplift.

• The existing 3D seismic dataset is good, so drill targeting is de-risked.

⸻

💰 Cost & Timing Estimate

• A deepwater appraisal well in the Falklands might cost ~$40–50 million gross (could drop with campaign efficiency).

• A 2–3 well program could be bundled into a shared rig mobilization, either with Sea Lion early drilling or a dedicated campaign post-FID.

• Timeline: drilling and testing could occur within a single summer weather window (Nov–Apr), with results in

ZYX, you have your opinion, I have mine. It’s what makes the world go round, time will tell. Anyway, I will get you a hob nob at next years AGM regardless.

GLA

Equity funding is now complete for Rockhopper, and Navitas’s conversion improves its funding position.

• These moves remove biggest execution risks: pre-FID equity certainty and lender confidence.

• Based on project lifecycle milestones and financing cadence, FID is now highly probable (>90%) by late October / early November.

• After FID and release of escrowed proceeds, preparations for contracts and long-lead equipment can accelerate.

GLA

Train is about to leave for oilville

Isobel will be drilled sooner than later in my opinion as I have said many times. A couple of prods to prove up a 1billion plus recoverable reserve would add massive value . I think it will happen in and around Sealion phase 1.

GLA

If MM thinks prodding Isobel makes sense, I’m sure this will happen sooner than others think. If it’s the monster we hope, that could encourage a lot more interest and effort to get oil province truly under way.

This would be the game play if I was running Rock, poke Isobel while establishing sealion phase 1.

GLA

Yes Ralph

Chat GPT says rockhopper share price:

5 billion recoverable £20

10 billion recoverable £40

20 billion recoverable £80

Now slap yourself and wake up, if we get 2-3 billion we will be pretty good.

GLA

60 billion barrels of oil in the basin maybe but, not all will be recoverable. Being very conservative, if we can recover just 2 to 3billion more oil rockhopper shares will be multiples of today’s price, £teens. The numbers become crazy once you go over 5 billion, like insane.

Like many of us here, I am reaching the autumn of my life and time will be more important than money. So like spacehoppa I want to realise at least some of this booty in the next 2-3 years. I can only handle fast cars and beautiful girls for so long ;)

GLA

Muchaboutmoney

These estimates are conservative and it’s just Isobel appraised, once FID on that it would sky rocket. I also think Isobel and other satellites will be much bigger. If this basin proves up another 2-3 billion of recoverable oil (highly likely) we get into multiples including £20+ a share. That said, short term (next 2 -3 years) need to keep feet on the ground. If things get expedited by more operations happening in parallel then who knows, but that would require more financial muscle and know how and another operator I feel. No one knows the end game here but we will be prone to being taken out at some time (hopefully for huge gain for LTH).

GLA

A few potential adders while we wait for first oil after FID (assume £1.20)

Let’s say we are awarded €80M for OM award after reapplying (adds 10-15p)

Let’s say we appraise Isobel with a few wells and it’s similar size to Sealion (adds 40-80p)

Otherwise it is a 2.5 year wait but once first oil phase 2 gets sanctioned and this is a big adder (40p -80p)

All above seem credible to me and fairly conservative.

End result £2:10 to £3:35

Of course there can always be a take over offer!

GLA

80p will be grabbed ….correction