Member Info for Nastynick

SpaceHoppa I agree with your numbers after Sealion FID we should have best parting $100M to play with. If we get any extra from the OM arbitration that would be more gravy.

I’m telling you I think they will stab Isobel a few times ;)

GLA

So we got insurance money and are reapplying for the award ….happy days. This will be gravy at a later date (for the Isobel appraisal drills ;))

GLA

Under what conditions would Rockhopper move out of AIM, and if so what would that mean for us?

Yes Hercules is capable of drilling Darwin - a 2 well appraisal campaign would cost circa £60M

• Older semi looks cheaper on a $/well basis, but regulators and insurers may prefer a modern, winterised rig for HSE reasons in the Falklands → risk premium.

• Hercules sits in the middle: higher per-day cost than a 4th-gen, but fewer rig days per well thanks to offline handling, more efficient tripping/casing, and fewer NPT risks.

• Drillship is fastest per well but massively more expensive overall and over-spec’d for 450 m water depth.

⸻

✅ Bottom Line

• If absolute lowest £/well is the driver → older semi wins (~£11M/well).

• If risk + stakeholder confidence is the driver → Hercules is the pragmatic balance (~£16–17M/well).

• If speed / ultra-deepwater flexibility is the driver → drillship, but at a premium (~£23M/well).

Takeaways

• Cheapest route: Older semi ($150k/day) if regulators accept it and technical efficiency losses are acceptable. Could save ~$120M vs Hercules.

• Balanced choice: Hercules or peer harsh-env semi — higher rig rate but good efficiency, safety, and stakeholder acceptability.

• Most expensive: Drillship — over-spec’d, higher fuel/operating cost, but potentially faster cycle time.

⸻

👉 In practice, Hercules is a safe middle ground: not the absolute cheapest, not the priciest, but a good fit for Sea Lion’s depth and environment.

Above from ChatGPT

I think FID is either September or October with most likely being October. this allows the placings to be processed, the RKH general meeting to be ratified and Navitas meeting. Also, FIG to do what ere they have to do to sign it off. The only thing I can’t see resolution to right now is the outstanding tax issue, but presumably RKh are getting the extra funding for this just in case and/or they have reached some agreement with FIG and when FID announced it will be explained.

The reason for FID by end of October is because purdah needs 70 days and the Falklands elections are December 11th I believe. If we don’t make the October deadline, FID could be Q1, hence why this was stated in the money raising RNS, but I think they will push for end of October so we are done and can meet the first oil schedule.

GLA

Not long to wait now

With the Rockhopper meeting being on 16th to ratify vote (I think it will be a no brainer, then FID announcement is the final step. Is 2-3 weeks enough time for them to arrange the hobnobs at Salisbury? I think so….

GLA

I’m now in Jakarta before I fly to Singapore then back to UK on Sunday, in time for bank holiday Monday. The insurance RNS I would expect very soon also the news on OO was stated as end of August (meaning next week). Not sure what today brings but next week looks very interesting.

GLA

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Bigred garbled fake grammar is an act, happy investor signs off same way as Garbled did just saying

It matters nought but rest assured FID is coming and I am thinking same as you share price peaks around £1.20

GLA

SteveO

Like most on here I track this closely given financial implications, my guess was October/November but I now think September/October. Potentially we are 6-8 weeks away from FID. I can’t see this drifting much lower but there could be the odd shake out to get some more shares. I think we will be 80p+ soon enough (end of August latest).

GLA

You do all know Happy Investor is Garbled and he wants a lower sp right now. Never heard so much nervous Nellie talk. The share price always takes a few hits before it climbs to weed out the weak.

GLA

And thank you Rockhopper I am flying to Singapore as I type and visiting Bali (second time) will pop into Jakarta before my return. I’m well paid but a few wives spent most of what I earned lol. Anyway I’m more cautious and would have flown economy or premium economy but with Rock doing so well I took business class….cheers Sam! The vino is great at 35000 feet.

Never felt more optimistic

GLA

Summary:

• Low netback ($30/bbl) → debt-free ~Q1 2030

• Moderate netback ($45/bbl) → mid-2029

• High netback ($60/bbl) → early 2029

So 2 years and debt free under current financial s, equity raise, loan etc.

Remember Rock will also reapply to ICSID for award again, what if we sell this or just collect this time with all that interest? Minimum say $50M, max $150M? We will be swimming in cash by 2030.

GLA

It depends if we spike up a lot after FID, typically share price should increase 15-35%. If it gets to say £1.20 I can see some sell off to £1 - £1:10, but I don’t think huge decline as FID outweighs the dilution significantly.

GLA

Bring on the £6 dancing girls

Ovets it was always minimum of £2 share price for me (just over £1M value to me). However, I can wait an extra few years if it’s getting to £6 :)

GLA

£6 share price will be more than enough dancing girls for me. Rock on Sammy.

GLA

Thanks Mogger and FITV….Looks like a it’s all go as far as FIG is concerned for FIF……..And in other news Mohammed Jallow stole a set of Sony headphones valued £250. London already reaching the Falklands. You couldn’t make that up. Send the illegal back lol

GLA

While we are waiting I ran some hypothetical models, assuming FID and first oil on Sealion, we then start phase 2 and we appraise Isobel and it’s a 500M boe total and we start producing from it by 2032, then share price would be around £6 and Rockhopper would be paying a circa 75p equivalent dividend each year. I know it sounds fantasy but is it? If so with my 520K shares currently I get almost £400k dividends. This is why I am holding out and not worried about the current equity raise, it will peanuts if this all comes off.

GLA