Member Info for Nastynick

You can’t have an omelette without breaking eggs. The FI residents will be richest people per capita on the planet, in exchange for a modest amount of homes and a hotel. Seems like a great deal.

GLA

I’m sure Rock and Navitas know what they are doing, main thing is getting FID done.

GLA

Shenandoah meets expectations

~85–90% – Navitas and Rockhopper likely proceed to FID in 2025

Nuff said

GLA I am going out for the day but next week could be fun

Assumptions

• RKH current price: 65p

• Market tends to price in partial probability of big project success (i.e., NAV discounting).

• A successful Shenandoah test would remove a major execution risk, triggering rerating.

• Brent price assumed to stay near $80–85, supportive of project economics.

• Analyst base NAV for full Sea Lion success often ranges £1–£1.20/share, so an 88p–90p price would reflect partial but confident de-risking.

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📈 Visual Summary

• ✅ If Shenandoah succeeds, Rockhopper could rise ~25–35%, toward 81–88p.

• ⚠️ If Shenandoah disappoints, Sea Lion FID is unlikely, and the upside evaporates—RKH may stall or fall.

From Chat GPT

If we get a decent report with no obstacles to getting the production oil rates targeted by end of the year we are truly off to the races as this milestone leap frogs the chances of success of Sealion FID to around 90%.

GLA

Enjoy the Sunday, Yorkshire puddings and dancing girls

My view is that these guys don’t hang about. Once Shenandoah starts pumping oil at a good rate it underpins a lot of the financials. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new farm in and bigger player take an interest and expedite Isobel plus…remember this basin is huge potentially 10, 20, 30 billion recoverable? someone will make a move in my opinion Sealion FID will be the catalyst. A poke in Isobel is peanuts compared to some wildcat exploration and Isobel could be a monster (twice as big as Sealion).

I’m not sure we get completely taken over or we just milk it all the way to the bank for a generation, why not?

GLA

Here comes the bottle of Rothschilds, dancing girls and the pool table

According to ThCheeseSlicer it was students and college kids with their pocket money, I guess schools are breaking up and the kids have spare dinner money.

Shenandoah happens and FID is nailed on for me, I expected Navitas to rise but we are certainly more leveraged here so our relative rise should always outpace Navitas with news affecting Sealion. my reckoning is this is a double bagger with high certainty now and not many are selling be it retail or institutional.

GLA

Here comes the bottle of Rothschilds and the dancing girls

My mind must be going but I was in Desire since they first drilled and hit everything but the bulls eye, my shares were paper and I can’t remember the date I bought. Was annoyed to see Rockhopper hit black gold with one of 2 strikes as I was only in Desire then. My aim originally was to make £50K to pay off my mortgage. countless years later I have over 500k shares worth multiples of the £50k I once dreamed of. Retirement for me can happen any day but probably the next year or so. Will be great if this makes it to the £2 mark and I’m worth over £1M on rockhopper alone. Glad to see the long term holders who have stuck it out thick and thin to get us where we are today getting their rewards finally.

GLA

Here comes the dancing girls

Dexter will be a at Tropical Storm at the most, I lived on the panhandle for 3 years, the locals treat these as a nothing burger, even the low grade hurricanes are considered not worth leaving for. I think all will be good with the oil flows, let’s see, exciting times ahead.

GLA

There will be more institutional investors (already 80%) so the retail investors like us will not make a lot of difference to share price. I thought post FID would be £1 this year but I now feel post FID will be nearer £1.20. Investors could then make the assumption this will climb to £2 on first oil in 18 months or so and higher if Isobel prodded and oil flows, so they might hold onto what they have.

GLA

Here comes Shenandoah

Sadly I have had to wait until later this month to max my ISA but I will be buying more. This is certainly not a time to sell in my opinion.

GLA

Despite a slight one-month delay to July, all key technical, operational, and financial milestones remain firmly in place. It is still highly likely (≈75–80%) that the Shenandoah field will reach 120,000 bpd shortly after initial startup, with capacity expansion to 140,000 bpd expected by early 2026.

I’m glad if my fanciful forecasts thread teased out Marlon Monkey from hibernation. Isobel looks like a monster.

GLA I just hope I live long enough to spend the multi millions this is go8ng to make me.

We will see, I think Isobel will be prodded sooner than you think because it turns the North Falklands Basin into a new oil province not just Sealion and the multiples on value are huge and we will get a big boy on board.

GLA

Rockhopper and Navitas have a joint agreement and this protects from a takeover u too end if 2025 and probably beyond has Navitas has the option to match any takeover bid for Rockhopper and in the past has defended such arrangements. So takeovers are less likely I asked ChatGPT the same thing

If Isobel is confirmed as a 1 billion barrel field and Sea Lion is already under development, then £6–£9/share is a much more realistic Q2 2027 price target for Rockhopper — with £10+ possible in a strong oil environment or in a competitive M&A scenario.

Or is it that fanciful?

NEIL agreed. The next big news should be Shenandoah oil production. So we can use chatGPT etc to guess share prices and scenarios, but bits kind of digital to me, if oil rates are good and no foreseen obstacles to Shenandoah reaching expected targets and revenues then Sealion FID chances of success increase another big step to 90%+.

Enjoy the weekend, I’m hopeful of Navitas update next week

I prefer hob nobs myself. Agreed when the usual suspects show up spouting end of the world nonsense you know that’s normally the queue to buy.

GLA 62p looks like resistance but positive Shenandoah could break it and nudge us up before the big FID break ;)

FID is 2-3 months away, if Shenandoah results are acceptable then FID is almost nailed on. I forecast 62p when I expected ICSID to go our way as we had a cup and handle pattern with breakout looking to meet resistance at 62p….we know what happened but that is now behind us. Good results on Shenandoah and I can see a climb to 75p. I predicted year would end on us at 99p but I now think closer to £1.20.

GLA

Morning. Ive just sliced my wrists after another dripley post.