What could have been5 May 2026 07:25
Today's RNS is good news but let's not forget that the board are very good at giving false hope as I've said before today is the anniversary of one of 5heir best broken promises and if they had actually had delivered their promise this is what the analyst estimate the sp today.
While hypothetical share prices are speculative, professional analyst models and historical market valuations provide a framework for what ImmuPharma PLC (IMM) could have been worth. The 4th May 2022 announcement specifically confirmed that its lead drug, Lupuzor™ (P140), had met key pharmacokinetic (PK) endpoints, theoretically clearing the path for its final Phase 3 clinical trials.1. The "Success Case" Valuation (£1.40 – £3.45+)If the program had progressed as originally intended in 2022 without subsequent regulatory pivots or delays, valuation models often point to significantly higher levels:Analyst Projections: Some bullish community and analyst perspectives suggest that a proven, effective Lupuzor™ for Lupus and other autoimmune conditions (like CIDP) could justify a market capitalisation of £1 billion to £25 billion.Implied Share Price: Based on the current ~624 million shares in issue, these valuations would translate to a share price between £1.40 and £3.45 per share.Licensing Value: Successful progression typically triggers significant milestone payments and royalty agreements (often estimated at ~30%), which would have drastically altered the company’s cash position and eliminated the need for recent highly dilutive fundraisings.2. Historical Context and Current RealityThe actual share price today is 4.14p. To understand the "gap," it is helpful to look at how the 2022 momentum was lost:The 2022 Setback: Following the May 2022 announcement, the FDA requested a move to much higher dosing and a new "adaptive" Phase 2/3 trial design in September 2022, effectively resetting the timeline.Dilution Impact: Because the drug did not reach the market or a major licensing deal, the company had to issue more shares to fund operations. Shares in issue rose from roughly 250 million in late 2020 to over 623 million today. This "dilution" means each share now represents a smaller slice of the company than it did in 2022.