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Hope you don’t mind me saying but another excellent post LTT. Absolutely and unreservedly agree with everything you say.

Keep up the good work!

Much

I agree Nick. If Sealion is the priority, why let potential purchasers of Zama know that PMO don't want it?

When you compare the two with Zama you have a shared project where you aren't the lead operator under an unstable regime with punitive tax policies likely to change at any time V Sealion where you are the lead operator, stable British protectorate, huge follow on opportunities (Isobel) and a very tax friendly environment.

Don't tell anyone but its a no brainer ........

This wouldn’t stop the UKEF financing the development of Sealion. It’s the financial support of British companies seeking to develop oilfields in foreign countries that they will stop. Not British companies in British waters.

The UK Export Finance agency has provided guarantees worth billions of dollars to help British oil and gas companies expand in countries such as Brazil, Iraq, Argentina and Russia over the years.

It’s is the financing of these projects that they intend to stop.

Much

Playing the odds.... interest rates are raised when inflation takes off not reduced.

Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods so you raise rates to reduce the amount of money circulating.

Totally agree ... I have always said that we will all end up as Premier / Chrysaor shareholders at some point.

An all share takeover at some point. Question is what will we be valued at as once it is clear that Sealion is going to be developed, you start to look at what we are worth based on recoverable assets and the oil I. The ground as well as future profits.

What ever it is it will be well north of a £1 a share.

Hey Ovets.

It’s been a crazy 8 years of waiting but I genuinely think in the case of Rockhopper, the best things come to those who wait. Everything is falling into place at just the right time.

Premier’s demise and the falling oil price looked like it was going to be the end of the road but the fact is, Sealion exists and is proven up and along with Isobel you have one hell of a lot of oil down there.

Who would have thought that Premier drowning under debt would have resulted in the creation of a new entity with the financial clout and more importantly the need to develop what will be its largest asset.

This time next year Rodney......

America’s nimble frackers in the Permian shale basin have stepped in quickly with fresh supply in previous mini-cycles but this time they are under much tougher financial discipline, and their best seams have mostly been tapped.

Westbeck Capital said the oil market is heading for a perfect storm. Insider buying by oil executives has reached record levels. There could soon be a buying scramble to unwind hedge contracts - de facto short positions - setting off a feedback loop. China and India are rushing to acquire stocks while crude is still below $50. “All the stars are aligning for a powerful bull market,” it said.

Interesting article in the Telegraph based on Goldman research and very bullish for us. Effectively there will be an 8% oil supply drop within a few years.

Imagine Ombrina Mare, Sealion Sanction, production by 2025 and then this

Goldman Sachs is replaying its best-selling hit: it has just proclaimed the start of another commodity supercycle.

We are in the very early stages of a supply crunch that will last for years and ultimately drive resource prices through the roof - or so goes the argument.

A global monetary and fiscal reflation boom will collide with the delayed effects of chronic under-investment in oil, mining and agriculture over the last decade.

The bank’s commodity chief Jeff Currie - the world’s most closely followed energy guru - says we are entering a new phase akin to the pre-Lehman noughties when the industrial revolutions of Asia were devouring resources and raising fears of peak oil, peak copper, and peak food.

All the major economies have abandoned austerity and declared a collective war on inequality. The planned spending surge on green deals and social welfare in Europe, America, and the OECD bloc will be buttressed by a consumer spending expansion in China.

The combined largesse will match the "BRICs" investment bubble of the 2000s in scale and outrun the supply of “almost all commodities".

as they did 50 years ago (bar the Bundesbank), deliberately letting their economies run hot to achieve "escape velocity" after the long malaise of secular stagnation.

Goldman Sachs says this revival of inflation will lead to the “revenge of the old economy”, and the effect will be turbo-charged: a V-shaped recovery in demand will collide with a structural supply shortage, something normally seen only towards the end of the business cycle but already visible today even in a downturn. “Nearly every commodity is in deficit despite lockdowns,” it said.

This includes oil once you strip away the distortions of the pandemic. Upstream investment in new oil and gas fields neared $900bn a year in the glory days. It halved after Saudi Arabia flooded the crude market in 2014 and prices crashed.

Then came the Paris climate accord. The advent of electric vehicles and talk of stranded assets scared the bankers away. The capital markets began to shun Big Oil.

The International Energy Agency said investment remained stuck at $480bn in 2018 and 2019, and will barely reach $300bn this year. The IEA's Fatih Birol says well depletion is eroding 3pc of global supply annually. “We’re losing one North Sea each year,” he said.

Eventually, there must be a crunch. Goldman Sachs says that moment is coming sooner than generally supposed. The Covid second wave is a “speed bump” that will not prevent a rebalancing of the crude market as the glut is cleared next year.
Mr Currie thinks Brent prices will reach $65 by the fourth quarter. From there, presumably, it is off to the races as he calculates that 8pc of global

Definitely something building here....... volume building, buys outstripping sales day after day and no price movement.

Oil price rising, Premier takeover going ahead, Ombrina Mare could happen any day.

Our prospects have never looked so good....our share price never so low. Something is definitely afoot.......

Two events that can take this quickly back to the 50s:

1. Resumption of dividends - its also possible that the money put aside for bad debts may not be needed and will be written back in
2. A BREXIT deal

Agree with some that the markets look toppy however, when you are a bank and priced under book, you can't really go wrong

Should say Plevin not apple...

And what if the bank in question underwrote their own policies Costain? Would apple in apply? I think not.

Just saying........

Much

Sorry Bruce. Totally incorrect.

As someone who worked in branch banking at the time I had two occasions where grieving widows were beside themselves with gratitude to find their husbands had taken PPI and that their personal loans would be paid off in full.

Much

The PPI policies paid out for sickness , unemployment and death all of which would have been covered so Sufcessx is absolutely right.

By making the Banks refund billions in PPI premiums the give and regulators have ensured that when an event like this did finally happen, they would have no insurance in place to meet their loan and credit card liabilities.

You can’t have it both ways my friends.

Looking at the trading and kick up of volume, looks like a move higher is imminent.

Been in a tight range this morning and with buys outweighing sells 2 to 1 should be one of those days when you look at the price and suddenly it is up 1.5p or more.

Fingers crossed....

An excellent summary Longterm.

Perfectly sums up my thinking and totally agree re Zama. H1 2021 is going to be very, very interesting.

Sorry for not being clear Ralph, when I said squeeze more out I meant re the farm out to and terms for Navitas not us.

Whereas before PMO needed Navitas to make Sealion fly, now they don't so may seek to negotiate less favourable terms in any deal so the dynamics of the deal have flipped. ie take the new deal or go take one as no longer rely on you.

If that is the case then we revert back to the original form out deal so doesn't effect us and we won't need to concede terms once we know they intend to develop the field as they are contractually bound.

Intersting times ahead.

Two key points for me.

Chrysaor deal is expected to be completed first quarter, previously it was first half of the year so things moving well.

Secondly, it looks like Chrysaor can effectively null and void the farm out if they want to and proceed alone. Of nothin else they may insist in better terms I guess.

In the Falkland Islands, the 250 mmbbl Sea Lion Phase 1 project is currently on hold. In the meantime, Premier continues to work with the Falkland Islands Government (FIG) on licensing, fiscal and regulatory matters. The proposed farm-out of the Sea Lion licences to Navitas is subject to FIG and, pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Chrysaor's approval.

Looks like the downtrend which has been in place since March has been broken at last so we may well be entering a new phase and a return to an upward trend.

We have earnings out next Thursday, a potential BREXIT deal on the horizon and hopefully a COVID vaccination by the new year. Add in a resumption of a small dividends or share buy back and this has only one direction of travel in 2021.

Time to fill your boots!

Daikihaku ... brilliantly put and exactly how we are probably all feeling. I certainly am!

But then you start to think of sea lion in production and Isobel with a billion barrels ....... :)