Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

It's not a court.

Worth reading the following https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/opinion/its-time-to-scrap-the-energy-charter-treaty/

Remember the no win no fee legal reps wouldn't have funded this case if they weren't confident of winning and remember, you can claim for not only your costs but loss of future profits.

Blue, yes absolutely I do.

The Energy Charter isn't some political managed Kangaroo Court beholden to the situation of the signatories that amends its judgements based on latest political developments.

I'll be in at sub 2.5p .... you can take you choice.

It's pretty clear that this market is behaving totally irrationally and that RKH is likely to head down to 2p or less over the coming days and weeks.

My average price paid is 37p on 100k shares and whilst I'm not one for chucking good money after bad, the oil price is going to re-bound at some point and we are sitting on cash. We're not in production so can effectively sit on the sidelines.

Where it gets interesting is Ombrina Mare which could see us with a market cap of£10m with £200m on the balance sheet assuming we get £175m. That is worth 40 to 45p a share and also enables us to ride this out and live to fight another day.

The Energy Charter doesn't give provision for Italy to walk away because there is a pandemic so its ruling will go ahead regardless.

Short and long is if I can buy at sub 2.5p which I expect to be able to do, this is worth a one pop shot purely on the back of Ombrina Mare so intend to pick up a further 50k shares and sell into the re-rating based on cash with the potential to make a quick £20k.

Much

Hey Daikihaku …. my investment was based on sealion and the oil we own but in the knowledge that OM was potentially a get out of jail free card if it all went t*ts up!

90 days and we could be sitting with £150m - £200m on the balance sheet and a very interesting 'shell' to any prospective buyers. If nothing else it might buy us another 3 years of living the dream!

Make no mistake, Corona and the oil price have caned us however, worth remembering that:

1. Ombrina Mare is a maximum of 90 days away (this was always my insurance policy here and what made it investable)
2. US shale is going to take a huge hit and supply is likely to drop off a cliff meaning higher oil prices further down the road
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Price-Crash-50-Of-US-Shale-Could-Go-Bankrupt.html

Just got to hope Premier gets through this ok

Much

Sorry Kurgan. It disagree entirely re OM.

Italy have to pay or are effectively defaulting on a liability (not good for your credit rating) and are already levying additional taxes on oil complained operating in Italian waters to build a fund to cover potential liabilities on the back of our case.

It the actions of someone who thinks they’re going to win and are seeking not to pay as required of them under the treaty.

Perfect storm FECM.

We know that OM last possible date is something like 6th June so we’ll know one way or a other by then.

In the meantime hopefully Premier can get the sale of Zama sorted which given the current climate would be hugely positive and give them some serious breathing space until things get better.

FECM you make a fair point however, £200m is a lot to make a hole in even by our feckless board.

Cash will underpin the share price. We won’t trade at a discount to cash and whilst Sealion may be delayed by another 6 months we can sit and wait and are well financed for when work finally gets under way.

Great post Seagull.

Ultimately we’re not a producer so if Ombrina comes in and we end up with circa £200m in the bank, we can just sit this out and are worth 40p in cash plus any value the market puts on Sealion and our future potential.

That puts me back in profit with everything to play for and Rockhopper in a great position to ride the next bull market and rise in oil price. It’s capitalism in action and leads to the next generation coming though as capital is re-allocated.

Ombrina Mare will massively underpin the share price and give us some stability.

I’m going for £150m to £175m as a ball park figure .

Yanbu .. yes there is that of course!

Hey Gozzie... I tend not to filter people unless they get really nasty so surprised to hear you say that,

Everyone’s point of view is worth considering when making an investment decision. Good counsel means listening to what you want to hear but more importantly what you don’t .

Only then can you make a proper informed decision.

Just wish people on here would stick to value adding debate rather than mud throwing.

Gozzie...... the Energy Charter covers a company for both the costs and all future profits from the field.

Italy have no choice but to pay. To fail would be the equivalent of defaulting on its sovereign debt leading to a down grade in their Moodys rating.

Not going to happen.

They’ll settle and within the required timescales.

Secret, I would suggest that a company like Rockhopper would trade up on cash given its potential. And that with cash on its balance sheet it would have a far greater potential and a nil risk of an equity raise.

Sealion has to be worth a few million

Not when it’s cash in bank Gozzie.

A company can’t be worth less than the value of its cash in the bank.

It would be like valuing a wallet on the ground with £50 in it at £45.

Listened to the PMO presentation this morning and the Q & A session.

It’s pretty obvious that the failure to realise Zama has undermined the finance. TD made it clear that EFG had basically said, come back and resubmit when Zama is in the bag and we can do a deal.

So we go from zero to hero on Zama sale confirmation, which kick starts the finance and we’re off in a chain reaction. But until that happens it’s the same old sitting and waiting tearing a strip off each other. Suggest people go and find a new hobby for the next couple of months.

Add in Corona virus and it’s all quite depressing , however Shale producers are going to go under like there is no tomorrow so big chunks of supply are going to disappear in the next 18 months taking oil higher.

Ombrina Mare result will be in the next 90 days. Each £50m puts 10p on the share price so £100m will take us back to 35p in an instant.

Yeah it’s disappointing but remember the darkest hour is just before the dawn. Nothing has changed. We’re just going to have to wait another 3 months.

Suggest people dial into the call which is starting now https://www.investis-live.com/premier-oil/5e3854690a12d4110095c251/edii

My take is that Zama is the catalyst.

In the meantime we have Ombrina Mare as our get of jail free card to get the share price back up above 30p if the pay out is anything more than £100m.

Result guaranteed to be published within the next 90 days.

Markets are massively over reacting and were looking for a reason for a sell off. FTSE is as cheap as chips on fundamentals and due a big bounce at some point.

The one positive is that with oil at $50 US shale producers who were struggling to roll over their debts and make any money are going to fall like nine pins and take some serious capacity out of the market.

RKH share price performance has been extraordinarily bad. Can’t believe we are trading at 13p. The market is saying OM is a nil payout, funding is a no and nothing is ever coming out of Sealion.

As such, if we get positive news this is going to flip. OM £150 m and we are immediately trading at 45p. Finance and FID and £1.20 a share plus.

Superich......Italy will pay and within the stipulated timescales set out in the treaty.

If it fails to it has effectively defaulted and Rockhopper can apply to the courts to have Italian assets impounded. A failure to pay your debts as a sovereign state has grave implications for your credit rating. Trust me Italy won’t even dream of going there.

Any day now and we could be transformed financially.

Ex dividend date is 16th April so you would need to have bought by close of trading on the 15th.

Good to see debate extending beyond the sanction of Sealion and what the Falklands could become as an oil producing province once the money starts to roll in and it becomes self financing.

We pretty much know the area has some pretty big fields with Isobel likely to be drilled first. As a safe and low tax province, it has the potential to grow exponentially as discovery after discovery comes in and with infrastructure in place and money flowing in, the momentum could be unstoppable.

Imagine getting into the North Sea at the beginning...... and no I’m not saying the Falklands is anything like as big but you get the picture.