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450m shares in issue. £250m equivalent payout gives you 45p cash per share.

And that places no value on Sealion……..

5 bag…. 45p straight up.

So at some point in the next 10 days we have been promised an announcement on Ombrina Mare, after which and the world could suddenly become a very different place. £200m is instantly worth 40p a share.

Appreciate people’s negativity, however with Sealion Harbour’s only real alternative for development now, oil at close to $75 and a strong possibility we are going to have an award of in excess of £200m, all is not lost.

Top post LTT.

The market may be missing what is going on but the choices for Harbour are fast running out with Sealion becoming their only real option from here on.

And of course we are now just days from the Ombrina Mare outcome.

Much

Harbour must be quickly coming to the conclusion that if they want a future with some serious production, the only option is Sealion https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Mexico-Regain-Its-Oil-Reputation.html

Wash, rinse, repeat .......

Maximum of circa 25 trading days until we finally hear .....

Be surprised not to see a few speculators jump in over the next few days and weeks and take the price up to 15p plus. Anyone who sells now is nothing short of an idiot given where we are.

35p by the end of August anyone?

Much

I think we have a leaky ship re Harbours results.

These are some pretty big slugs of shares and someone is more than willing to pay 5% over the odds so they are either stupid or we have a leaky harbour ...... bodes well for 7.00 am tomorrow...

Things likely to get interesting tomorrow with latest results and an opportunity to set out its strategy and plans including Sealion.

A perfect synopsis LTT.

What can I possibly add other than to say I agree 100% and echo everything you have stated.

Much

Absolutely beyond me why anyone would contemplate selling any share over the next 6 weeks.

Ombrina Mare judgement due and Harbour update against a background of oil at $74.

Next few weeks could see lift off and yet the share price continues to fail to reflect what is potentially just around the corner.

Very odd.

Yes definitely. The AGM will be the first opportunity post merger to set out the plans for the coming years.

Therefore expect Sealion to get get some serious coverage.

Much

Disagree guys. A failure to pay by the Italian state to pay would represent a default and impact both their moodys credit rating and ability to raise funds on the international money market. Italy will pay.

Each airbus is worth £100m. Heathrow is stuffed full of them. They’ll pay.

The Italian state owned airline Alitalia will make easy pickings if we end up in a similar situation

Hey Neilus...... given Ombrina Mare cost £30m and there are almost 30m barrels, even a $5 a barrel profit gives you $180m? This case is being watched very carefully as it could open up the flood gates.

Also worth pointing out that non-payment constitutes a default which can have an horrendous impact on country’s Moody’s Credit rating which drives the cost of state debt.

Trust me it will be a lot cheaper to pay than have the cost of state debt rise.

Also with Alitalia being a state owned airline, the impounding of a few Italian state owned planes at Heathrow should focus the minds.

Rest assured Italy will pay.

Rockhopper has provided an update on its international arbitration against the Republic of Italy in relation to the Ombrina Mare field. Further to the Company’s announcement of 31 March 2021, the Tribunal has today provided the following update:

“The Tribunal anticipates that it should be in a position to render its award* in the course of July. The Tribunal will revert to the Parties towards the end of June to confirm this timeframe.”

Rockhopper continues to believe it has strong prospects of recovering very significant monetary damages – on the basis of lost profits – as a result of the Republic of Italy’s breaches of the Energy Charter Treaty. All costs associated with the arbitration are funded on a non-recourse (“no win – no fee”) basis from a specialist arbitration funder.

Life has been very quiet for Rockhopper lately as the restructuring of Premier takes place and the Tribunal ruminates. Today’s news obviously says nothing solid but it must be good to be closing in on an answer to the question after such a long time. Whatever the outcome RKH still has an enviable position at Sea Lion which at todays oil price must have very positive economics.

Hey LTT

Energy Charter Arbitration awards alway include lost profits. Details of the Rockhopper case are around half way down

https://energy-charter-dirty-secrets.org/

Much

Hey Ralph,

The award isn’t going to be that low given we are claiming for the costs and the loss of future profits on 30m barrels.

Only risk is that it is reduced on the basis that we should have undertaken more diligence before getting involved.

I’ll be shocked if it anything under £200m, even more so if it is just £20m

Much