Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

Given max of 10 weeks this becomes a no brainier at this level.

Effectively each £100m of award is worth 22p on the share price based on cash in the bank. Add in that this will sort out any uncertainty re cash position and a decision from Harbour later this year re plans for Sealion puts us in a very different position come the end of the summer.

Anyone selling now would be absolutely mad!

Don’t you just love the sound of whining socialists on here after democracy once again tells them how it is? First we had Brexit which was obviously going to happen if you took the trouble to talk to people outside London and the liberal elite who just sat around reinforcing eachother’s convictions. Then came the general election.......

If only they could see the irony of posting their socialist rubbish on a board like this designed to support the buying and selling of equities which represents the absolute epitome of capitalism by its very nature.

Go Boris.........with the UKIP vote now firmly back with the Tories it’s going to be a very long time before the left has any kind of influence on brilliant post Brexit Britain.

From the Telegraph today....... oil and metal prices are poised to surge in coming months as Britain and the US launch a once-in-a-generation infrastructure spending spree and the global economy roars back to life.

Market strategists are bracing for the biggest jump in oil demand ever after drivers returned to the roads en masse. Crude is forecast to hit its highest level in three years, ultimately driving prices higher at the pump.

Meanwhile president Joe Biden is about to launch a $2 trillion (£1.5 trillion) programme to rebuild America’s crumbling roads and bridges, while in the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has talked about the need for a recovery led by investment in green energy.

Goldman Sachs has predicted a 14pc jump in commodity prices over the next six months, pushing a broad measure of metals and oil up to its highest level in more than six years.

The Wall Street bank expects copper to rise by over 10pc to reach more than $11,000 per ton by the first quarter of 2022, while Brent crude, the UK benchmark oil price, is set to hit $80 per barrel – a level not reached since 2018.

Bodes well for Harbour and any decision to make the FID on Sealion.

BTW, I get the frustration re Sam and has plundering colleagues, however Ombrina Mare could be any day now swiftly followed by Harbour starting to set out their strategy which could take the board from zero to hero in a jiffy.

Ultimately even if you did force a change, I would suggest it would be out of retribution rather than appointing someone new who is going to be able to somehow control events that are outside of their control.

Interesting quote and a great find LTT.

As I keep saying and as history has shown time and time again, never ever make a deal with the devil...... it never turns out well, the 83% take being proof of this.

Old news Bloobird..

If you wanted to sell something would you do anything other than big it up to get best price.

Doing business with countries like Mexico is like doing a deal with the devil......

Harbour our would be insane to try and get into bed with Mexico or indeed any of the Spanish speaking South American mafia. These guys are third world tin pot states run by despots. They’re not democracies and any deal you do is likely to be undone or you just get your assets taken and told to go before you are arrested.

As Ovets and co have said already, this is about dressing up Zama and feigning an interest to see if they can exit with some cash.

There is no way on hells earth that Harbour intend to try and do a deal with the devil let alone get into bed with him.....

Then there is a ready made to go field in a British protectorate where you have complete control, low tax rates and numerous follow on opportunities.

No brainier..... just be patient .....

Clearly the idea that the UK gov is no longer a supporter of the industry doesn’t hold true if this is anything to go by. Write off export finance for Sealion at your peril....
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-UK-Prepares-To-Boost-North-Sea-Drilling.html

Good find Bloobird....... and this kind of endless messing around with the risk that Mexico will continue to play silly buggers is exactly why Harbour will ultimately choose the Falklands and Premier decided to monetise.

It’s just too much hassle and risk dealing with problem children countries.

Much

40p plus on a decent Ombrina Mare settlement.

£1.20 plus on FID ....

Sounds like you mix with some pretty senior sources Tuggy so I clearly cannot argue with that statement if your source is reliable. As a Banker I've had experience of government schemes and the British Business Bank and one thing I would say is that have to be careful about treating all companies equally, so as long as the proposal is legal its actually quite difficult for them to say no if it stacks up.

Regardless there is the contractor finance as another source so with Navitas onboard, I don't see the financing as being a huge obstacle if the economics continue to work.

Much

Great spot Horsers. In the last four years, the government supported £21bn of UK oil and gas exports.

The change in UK oil and gas policy is about the gradual transition of the economy to a greener standing over time. It doesn’t mean flipping the switch immediately as anyone with half a brain recognises that the ships, plains, lorries, cars and homes that rely on oil are going to do so for some time to come and that new oil fields need to be found and developed if we are to keep the lights on.

Hey Tuggy,

If you remember back, Premier had set up the deal so that quite a lot of the supply chain would have an interest in the project providing finance for their different parts secured against the future cashflow. So in effect Premier had already secured finance from your third parties.

In terms of Export Finance, I wouldn’t write it off yet. They may talk the talk when it comes to saving the planet, but when it comes to a project like this which will finance the Falklands military presence and provide billions of spending throughout the supply chain, you may be surprised as to what gets sanctioned. There is always a way around these things.

Time will tell.

Much

Yes it’s true..... have a look at page 7. https://www.chrysaor.com/downloads/2.%20Analyst%20Presentation%20-%206%20October%202020.pdf

Hey Tuggy.

Have to disagree. Harbour will insist on being lead operator so will not go below 40% in respect of Sealion, otherwise they lose control and are no longer able to call the shots.

Much

Yup and phase 2 takes production to over 130k barrels a day so the maths just gets better and better.....

Hey Bloobird

Did you really expect them to behave any differently from the Europeans given their language is Spanish with something like 98% of the population of Spanish origin.

Same useless child like mentality coupled with an inability to organise a p*ss up in a brewery or the modern version, a vaccination of your citizens even when the kind Anglo Saxons and their brothers in India have developed and manufactured it for you so all you have to do is stick in in your subjects arm!

Thank god we are out of there.....

FALKLAND ISLANDS
The weak oil price environment resulted in Premier taking the decision to reduce activities on its Sea Lion Phase 1 project in the first quarter of the year. Sea Lion remains a material opportunity for the Group and a smaller core team has continued to progress a number of regulatory and commercial work streams over the course of the year.

Premier's 2020 priorities for its Sea Lion Phase 1 project, as envisaged at the start of the year, included securing senior debt financing for the project, completing the farm down to Navitas Petroleum and submitting a Field Development Plan for the project to the Falkland Islands Government by the end of the year.

Technical definition of the Sea Lion Phase 1 project, which will develop 250 mmbbls of the 530 mmbbls Sea Lion gross resource, was completed in the first quarter of 2020 and all of the key service and supply contracts were in the process of being finalised. Public consultation on the Environmental Impact Statement had also been completed having been updated to reflect further project optimisation. However, the collapse in commodity prices and the ensuing need to defer discretionary capex, resulted in Premier reducing activity on its operated Sea Lion Phase 1 project in April.

Over the remainder of 2020, a reduced team continued to progress a number of regulatory and commercial work streams. This included developing Sea Lion's net zero emissions plan to ensure the project would be carbon neutral and finalising the terms for Navitas to farm in for a 30 per cent interest in the Sea Lion licences. Under the terms of the farm out agreement, Navitas will share the pre-first oil funding and bring additional sources of senior debt financing to the project. In addition, the previously differing interests between Premier and Rockhopper across the various Sea Lion licences will be harmonised with Premier, Rockhopper and Navitas having a 40 per cent, 30 per cent and 30 per cent interest, respectively, in the Sea Lion licences.


The proposed farm out of the Sea Lion licences to Navitas is subject to the Falkland Islands Government's and, pursuant to the Merger Agreement, Chrysaor's approval. As a result, in December, Premier, Rockhopper and Navitas agreed to extend the exclusivity period for the farm out to enable the merger with Chrysaor to complete and the management of Harbour Energy to make a decision on the farm out.

Post period end, the Falklands Islands Government agreed an extension to each of Premier's licences in the North Falklands Basin, including the Sea Lion Discovery Area. The licences, which had been due to expire on 1 May 2021, have been extended until November 2022.

Just a reminder that PMO issue there full year results tomorrow so maybe worth tuning n to see what is said .....

Premier publish their end of year 2020 results Thursday and the arrangements to become Harbour are sanctioned by the Scottish Court on Friday.

May be some interesting information for us on the back of this towards the end of the week.

I wondered what happened to Ben Elton......