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Agree with everything you say Surfit.

How much we get after the lawyers is the big unknown. Regardless each £50m is worth 10p on the shareprice as a general rule.

Hi Surfit

Its difficult to say how much they will get but £150m appears to be a fair amount given you can claim for costs and all future profits.

In terms of a re-rating, as soon as the money appears then the share price should automatically correct as you can't have a company valued at £76m by the market with £150m of cash on its balance sheet.

If it didn't correct, we could effectively buy the company for £76m on the market, dissolve it and walk off with the surplus £74m in our pockets.

The increase to 50p plus should therefor be instantaneous and the fact that we will be cash rich puts a very different perspective on our prospects and involvement in the Falklands going forward.

As for BJ's announcement, just words as he knows he won't be around to make the move to electric transformation happen. And of course we know that the UK is frankly pi**ing in the wind in comparison with the huge oil demand coming from the east and supply shock due to come in the mid 20's due to the dearth of oil discoveries to come online as a result of the exploration and discovery cutbacks in 2014 to 2017. Remember the amount of oil discovered was the lowest since 1915 and the big fields flowing today are all reducing output per year by some 10%. Something has to give.

Finally the weak oil price is going to be the nail in the coffin for a lot of shale operations over the coming months as they seek to refinance. Again its going to mean supply shocks going forward

Surfit,

£150m from OM is worth 30p on the share price and will see us trading at 50p instantly.

Based on the number of shares in issue, each £50m is worth 10p on the price.

Much

From the monotony of this board by providing any one of Zama, Funding Update or Ombrina Mare and soon. I'm losing the will to live!

Yup … assuming successful Ombrina Mare and conformation of FID £1.50 to £1.75.

Gives a market cap of circa £675m.

Suresh is right. No update from Premier tomorrow now.

Next update will be March 5th for Premier. Likely to be an interesting one and we may well have Ombrina Mare out before then which could come at any time and send this up 30p in an instant.

You just have to be in here for Q1. We report beginning of April based on memory

Always good to see a stock hitting new highs for the day in the last 30 min of trading.

Should see another strong day tomorrow and then its Thursday with Premier's update and probably more positive info re funding.

Oh and there is the little matter of Ombrima Mare coming over the horizon in the next 10 weeks.

To coin a phrase from NIGOIL 'FID and Project Sanction of Sealion 2020 FACT'

Then we'll just have to disagree GS and see where we are in 2025. Once you become a stable company with earnings the market will value you based upon fundamentals and yield.

Out of interest, what price would you suggest represented full value here and tempt you to take your money and run?

GS you're mis representing what I said.

My hypothesis was that a $10 increase on 50k daily production (18m barrels pa) would deliver an increase in profits of $180m which provides additional earnings or profits per share of 40p in that year.

Is your EPS is 40p and you are on even a cheap PE of 10 then it should deliver an additional £4 increase in the share rpice all things being equal.

If oil goes to $100 when we are in production you can all do the maths.

So yes there remains extraordinary upside potential here if oil is north of $75 when we go into production.

GS … a couple of points and forgive me as I am racing between meetings:

Question

How many barrels will RKH be getting from the share of phase 1 and 2? Assuming Isobel is at least as big as Sealionj and we had 30% of that, what would be our total production share?

Points

1. Once producing with no / negligible debt we won't be a small producer and will start to be valued based on profits, potential and EPS. Who knows the dividends might start to flow so a valuation based the yield may well come into play. Most oil companies are up to their necks in debt however we won't be which deserves a premium rating
2. Oil supply shock in mid 2020s is likely to see oil at well over $80 as the dearth of discoveries from 2014 to 2017 comes into play along with the demise of a fair amount of US shale output. We could well be making $40 a barrel pre tax
3. Isobel can be funded out of cashflow. The re-appraisal is likely to prove up what some think could be a monster in comparison with Sealion.

Ultimately the market will decide which of us will be correct however I still expect

GS,

What price are you assuming oil will be in your rather downbeat assessment?

I would imagine that even a small rise in your hypothesis has the potential to have a huge impact.

For example if by phase 2 RKH are enjoying 50k barrels a day then a $10 increase in oil delivers an extra £180m profit a year or 40p eps which on a market PE of 14 is worth £5.60 a share just for the extra $10 a barrel.

You are being far too conservative here and then you have to factor Isobel in an already producing basin.

Hey Robpug …….. I still expect something further on Thursday re Zama and more detail on the conference call and also the EFG Loan.

Agree re everything else you say albeit Navitas was a surprise!

Much

Nicely set up for Thursday and the Premier announcement ……. this is fantastic news

Chart on PMO is like a coiled spring and is absolutely screaming beak out.

This is absolutely ready to pop on positive news on Zama next week. Would t be at all surprised to see this hit £1.25 in positive news.

Our Asian friends must be absolutely bricking themselves!

Happy New Year to all bit here and in Rockhopper as after all, they will at some point merge once Sealion is given the go ahead.

I was rounding the numbers down to make it simple for you but hey, you appear to be getting your head around it so well done :)

There is hope after all ……

Now see if you can respond without name calling

My point Olliesky is that if a company like RKH is values at £67m when it is making nothing, it could easily be worth £2.25 bn if it is making £250m a year based on fundamentals.

Which in itself makes the shares worth £5 = £2.25bn / 450m

Would you buy a company making £250m a year for £2.25bn? I damn well would. It would be on just 9 years earnings which in itself would be a 33% discount to the wider market so an absolute bargain.

Auson .. simply multiply the number of share in issue by the share price and you have the market value of a company.

So Rockhopper have around 450m shares in issue so at 15p the company is valued at around £67m.

Lloyds Banking Group have around 70bn shares in issue so at 65p they are valued at £45.5bn.

Comprendez?

I honestly can't believe that anyone would buy shares without being able to work out or take into account the value / market cap of the company.

Does the value of what you are buying never come into it Olliesky? I honestly had no idea that people as mentally ******ed as you bought shares. This has certainly been an education for me if not for you!

So what is it like to fly blind and in blissful ignorance? Truly terrifying I would imagine ….. no wonder you come up with the crazy stuff and comments you do. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about!

Ahhh my little friend Olliesky emerges with more value adding content.

So are you now able to work out the market capitalisation of a company all on your own or do you still need a reminder re the numbers you need to multiply together?

Please prove my time wasn't wasted on you and inform everyone in attendance what you need to do to work out the market cap for RKH with real numbers.

I await your response with bated breath …….

Much

Buys have certainly outweighed sells over the last few days.

Can't help but thing this is going to start to rise very soon as they aren't going to be able to hold it back for much longer.

Zama news must be imminent. Be great to hear something this side of Christmas from Premier