Member Info for Muchaboutmoney

Hey Surfit and yes of course, all sorts of dynamics that we just can't factor in such as a reduction due to a farm in. And I am of course presuming the team from Catcher Helier again this time in the South Atlantic.

However,I haven't factored in Sealion Phase 2 which we have a higher % of and takes production much much higher.

Much

Just imagine, every 1.6p rise is costing them £1.6m !

Ouch .... imagine what the Zama announcement is going to cost them .....

Hey Gozzie.

After 8 years of waiting the market has given up and there have been question marks around whether Premier can finance the development of Sealion. We are completely dependent on them.

Many of us beg to differ with Zama sold and Export Guarantee finance the final piece in the jigsaw puzzle, we should get confirmation in the next few months then it will be lift off,

Re your question regarding value now, there are twice as many shares in issue now than there were then as we bought out FOGL in an all share transaction.

Absolutely Citizen.

They have been caught with their pants down and are ripe for a serious shafting.

Somehow they are going to have to buyback almost 200m shares without the price going stratospheric. Good luck with that!

Tomorrow could be very, very interesting.

Yes Gozzie yes! Go straight to the top of the class. £2.29bn

On a serious note, it’s really important that people understand the potential here and don’t bale out at £1 only to watch this go inexorably higher and miss out in life changing amounts of money.

Here’s a link to help anyone who is struggling to grasp how companies are valued and why there is so much potential here.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/price-earnings-ratio/

Ok so here’s how it works.

There are 458m shares in issue in RKH. So if the share price is £1 that values the company at £458m.

With the share price at 15 p we have a current market capitalisation (value) of around £68m.

Now when you value a company on the market , you have to take into account future earning ie you are paying today for future profits and dividends. The price to earnings ratio or number of years investors pay on average on the UK market is 14.

So if in 2025 Rockhopper makes £30 per barrel of oil profit and is receiving its share of production ie 30k barrels per day, it will be making £900k per day profit.

That equates to £328.5m profit a year. If you divide this into the 458m share in issue, each share is receiving 72p profit. This is the earnings per share.

If you then multiply the Earnings Per Share by 14 (average price earnings ratio on the UK market) you get a share price of £10.04. This would give a market cap of £4.6bn.

Sound high? Hargreaves Lansdown have a similar number of shares in issue and make £300m profit per year yet have a market cap of £8.5bn. Double what we would have.

So you can see, £5 a share is a very conservative estimate. Throw in Isobel and the sky is the limit here.

Ha ha ha. You really don’t know the answer do you? You really are completely devoid of even the most basic knowledge of equity investments and the fundamentals. There are beginners and then there’s Ollie and Kurgan.

I do believe I have just called their bluff and demonstrated to everyone that they are completely clueless.

Oh and for the record, I went to a comprehensive in Wiltshire so no special privileges here. Self made and self taught re the markets albeit with a banking background.

I’ll post the answer tomorrow for you and we can compare the market cap of a company with an almost identical number of shares in issue that makes around what we will be making in 5 years time.

The market cap and share price will shock you to the core and make you realise that £7 is actually very conservative if this all comes off.

Guys ... if you can’t answer this your credibility on this board is going to be shot to pieces. This is like asking a mechanic how many wheels there are on a car and him not knowing the answer.

If you can’t answer this you really shouldn’t be playing with shares.

OMG and FFS it’s not hard........ do you need me to give you the answer?

Here’s a clue. All you have to do is multiply 2 numbers together..... question is, which 2?

Kurgan / Ollie,

Quick question for you to see if you are as delinquent as you appear. Ow this is basic stuff but a I have to ask you.

What would £5 a share value Rockhopper at in terms of market cap?

And you’re looking at £7 a share for the record minimum on production.

Absolute *******s Kurgan.

Are you really saying that RKH will be worth just £450m if it is producing 30k barrels a day and making £250m a year?

That’s EPS of 60p which would mean on a pound it would be on a PE of under 2! Lol

That’s a seven fold discount to the market which averages 14 and completely discounts Isobel and Ombrina Mare.

You really don’t have a clue about how stocks are valued do you?

When they are forced to close their position, PMO goes stratospheric!

Have you ever tried to buy 25% of a company in a rising market?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see heavy buying of PMO on the back of this in the knowledge that the higher it goes, the more likely the vultures will need to buy back in taking PMO inexorably higher in a classic bear squeeze.

They are well and truly f***ed! And the best but is their pain will be our gain!

Spot on rpoodle. Completely concur.

My hope is that a few investors with deep pockets see an a opportunity here to buy into Premier on the Zama news and take it higher forcing ARCM to start closing their shorts in a classic bear squeeze.

Imagine having to cover 25% of a company’s share in a rising market.

There is the potential to take Premier to well over £2.50 if ARCM get taken to the cleaners and are forced to close their position. Could be an absolute massacre.

The market doesn’t take prisoners.

As I think we all know, the reality is slightly different here. Premier oil’s debt will be circa $1.5bn following confirmation of sale of Zama, their Mexican field in the next few weeks as the next put half year pay down..

The author has got their dollars and pounds mixed up.

Premier is a very well run company with a superb CEO who has been managing the debt down over the last few years and generating free cash flow. It has huge potential.

I would expect that on the sale of Zama and reduction in debt to nearer $1.5bn you are going to see the largest short In Europe prove to be an extremely expensive mistake by Asia Research & Capital Management. Imagine having to buy back 25% of a company in a rising market! Ouch!

You can almost smell those shorts burning from here........ good luck my little Asian friends. You can’t buck the market as they say.......

Some nice chunky buys gone through this morning.

Much

And if we get a satisfactory Zama announcement soon, I would expect this to be trading at around £1.20+ so then they are really going to have to do some thinking .....

I would imagine they are practically ****ting bricks over this. You can see exactly why they wanted to keep this quiet.

Now everyone knows they are short, an announcement regarding Zama has the potential to bring about a classic bear squeeze where by concerted buying taking Premier sharply upwards leaves these guys having to cover and buy back taking the share inexorably higher.

This could get very interesting in the coming days and weeks.

Brilliant find Marunam.

If this was a legal case the circumstantial evidence would be screaming that Rockhopper are well and truly guilty of pulling this one off!

Next 3 weeks are going to be fascinating and then there is Ombrina Mare to come for some extra fun.

Posted at 11.10 headed up Sealion by Maybeayemaybenaw …... guess he or she is based North of the border with contacts in the industry