Member Info for MountTeide

Typo - last post should have read 40,000 bopd Gross - circa 12,000 bopd Net to Afentra

- 81% - Jadestone Energy

Afentra has returned a CAGR of circa 10% since the 2022 Post Covid Peak - and is positioned extremely well to materially improve on that performance over the next 2-3 years. 40,000 bopd net is the self funded development target for Block 3/05 over the next three years. Invested cash with the potential to deliver a far superior return to buybacks and dividends. IMHO/DYOR

+ 31% - Afentra

-2% - Shell

-19% - Arrow Exp

-25% - Shell

-66% - Enquest

-68% - Serica

-79% - Kistos

-81% - J

'and that’s what many in the market are noting. ' Lol!

How do you know? Making posts claiming to know what others are thinking and using it as the basis for your investment strategy is laughable!

Speaks volumes about your credibility as an 'investor' and the quality of the investment case 'research' you carry out.

Wilfully attempting to mislead the market is a criminal offence known as Fraud by Misrepresentation.

Particularly when it was pointed out to you that the company's production data - regularly released to the market - shows that average production per quarter continues on a strong upward trend. As a result of the large scale well work-over, field waterflood and production infrastructure maintenance and upgrading activities the partners in Block 3/05 are carrying out to raise production to circa 26,000 bopd gross by 2026, and then onto circa 40,000 bopd gross by 2028 via the addition of a low cost infill well drilling campaign (no infill well has been drilled on the asset for circa 15 years!) and a programme of heavy well work-overs , on a 3.0 million bbl OIP asset that was starved of production development capex during the decade prior to Afentra buying into the asset.

'The oil production in q1 is worryingly lower also; Won’t be well received:

Net: 7,203 bopd (December 2024)

Net: 6566, bopd (Q1 2025)'

Predictably, you forgot to mention that the 7,203 bopd Dec figure was the result of flush production post the 3 week maintenance shutdown - to quote the company: "The strong operational performance post the 3 week maintenance shutdown positively impacted the production and water rates"

Production Growth Since Jan 2024

6,070 bopd - Jan - Oct 2024

6,229 bopd - Full Year 2024

6,566 bopd - Q1/2025 - +8.2% on average production prior to Oct/24 maintenance shutdown

Lol! I wish - bought my first 2.0 million AXL shares at an average of 7.15p when the sector and stock was as unloved as it is now - that initial purchase in 250,000 transactions did not even move the share price. Shortly after added a further 1.5 million below 10.0p. Successful, well researched investors will be very aware that the AXL CEO has sold his last 8 companies for multiples of the price he bought into them - name ONE UK O&G industry executive that can match that incredible record!

"On April 1, 2025, the Company had a cash balance of US$25.1 million and held no debt. Further, the Company has no long-term rig contracts or obligations to drill wells. Corporate operating netbacks at a US$65/bbl Brent oil price are US$39/bbl."

$25.1m net cash - $6m (32%) added to the cash position in Q1/2025, while production remained broadly stable at 4,500 bopd.

5,000 bopd production at a corporate operating netback of $40/bbl has the potential to generate the same return as US Shale Oil production of 20,000 bopd at a corporate operating netback of $10/bbl.

This highlights well that oil production globally is not worth the same and can vary enormously in its value to investors - very low drilling and Opex costs and a globally competitive fiscal regime is having a hugely positive impact on Arrow's returns, even at an oil price now close to the US Shale industry's break even point.

AIMHO/DYOR

£44m - Market Cap

£20m - Net Cash

£24m - Enterprise Value

For a company generating circa $4-5m of cash a month at the current oil price.

Good day to be providing the market with a strong operational update - where the cash position has increased to over $25m and, production to above 4,500 bopd as the ramp up in production development drilling at Carizallas Norte enters an accelerating phase.

At the present oil price - current production is generating $4-5m per month.

If you carried out some decent research you would find that both AXL and AET were set up to acquire attractively priced assets capable of delivering market leading FCF generation for investors at $50 oil - at $70-$75 Brent both are currently generating outrageous levels of FCF and production and reserves growth.

For some reason the system is preventing the posting of the reminder of the content of the previous post!

Continued:

Light Well Interventions - Adding 150 bopd per intervention

▪ 40 interventions

▪ $500k per LWI

▪ Payback

Continued:

Light Well Interventions - Adding 150 bopd per intervention

▪ 40 interventions

▪ $500k per LWI

▪ Payback

Continued:

Light Well Interventions - Adding 150 bopd per intervention

▪ 40 interventions

▪ $500k per LWI

▪ Payback

Angolan Assets - Investment Case: Like to regularly remind myself of the incredible scale, enormous development potential and size of the investment return on offer from these world class shallow water assets bought for a net $9.7 million - in one of the best second phase asset deals I've researched over the last 15-20 years.

Angola Block 3/05(30%) and 3/05A(21.33%)

Vast underdeveloped world class shallow water assets starved from mid life(for 10-15 years) of production development funds with substantial potential to replace reserves, increase recovery and commercialise nat gas emissions.

Scale of the Prize - 3.5 billion bbls oil in place

▪ 9 fields

▪ 3 undeveloped discoveries

▪ 17 installations

▪ 157 wells

Block 3/05 (30.00%)

▪ >3 billion bbls

▪ 42% Recovery to date - Target: 50%

▪ 108 mmbo 2P

Block 3/05A (21.33%)

▪ 300 million bbls

▪ 1% Recovery to date - Target: greater than 30%

▪ 33 mmbo 2C

Production Development Plan - Gross Figure

▪ 18,600 bopd - 2022 Effective Economic Date of Asset Purchase

▪ 20,180 bopd - 2023 Actual

▪ 22,701 bopd - 2024/H1

▪ 23,500 bopd - 2025

▪ 26,500 bopd - 2026

▪ 31,500 bopd - 2027

▪ 41,000 bopd - 2029

2023

$23/bbl - Opex (Target $20/bbl by 2025)

$3/bbl - Capex

$8/bbl - Three years investment programme to upgrade infrastructure facilities.

2023 Four Phase Production Development Programme:

2023 Onwards - Stabilise and Sustain Production @ circe 23,000 bopd Gross

2026 Onwards - Optimise Operational Wells and Infrastructure

2027 Onwards - Increase Recovery through Infill Drilling

2028 Onwards - Develop Satellite Discoveries

2024 - Work Programme Ongoing into 2025

Water Injection

▪ 33,000 bwpd in 2023

▪ Targeting 60,000 bwpd in 2024

▪ >150,000 bwpd long term - half current design capacity of the machinery

Field Management

▪ Uptime 87% in 2023

▪ Targeting >90% in 2025

▪ Comprehensive upgrades of installations

Light Well Interventions - Adding 150 bopd per intervention

▪ 40 interventions

▪ $500k per LWI

▪ Payback

Afentra - up there with the very best at sweating it's management and staff assets for its shareholders!

Employees v Market Cap(M/C)

M/C per employee

$11.01 million - Afentra: 13 Employees & $144m M/C

$7.87 million - Exxon Mobil: 62,000 Employees & $488bn M/C

$4.11 million - Valeura Energy: 196 Employees & $806m M/C

$3.71 million - Serica Energy: 200 Employees & $745m M/C

$2.81 million - Petrotal: 161 Employees & $451m M/C

$2.65 million - Arrow Exp: 34 Employees & $93m M/C

$1.96 million - Shell: 103,000 Employees and $204bn M/C

$1.53 million - Savannah Energy: 276 Employees & $423m M/C

$0.94 million - Touchstone Exp: 86 Employees & 81m M/C

$0.79 million - BP: 88,000 Employees and $70bn M/C

$0.46 million - Enquest: 681 Employees & $313m M/C

$0.41 million - Jadestone Energy: 409 Employees & $170m M/C

Having a large diversified asset portfolio and operatorship of many of the assets are variables that tend to lower the m/c per employee, particularly where the assets are located in low employee cost regions of the world. Regardless, it has not stopped the world's largest O&G company Exxon Mobil from performing extremely well in this respect.

'Asset Level Net Cash Flow: $87.2 million generated post capex, opex and fiscal take'

Outstanding performance - 9 times the purchase price of the Angolan assets after adjustment from the effective date of the three deals - and included a 21-day maintenance shutdown in October 2024.

'Strong operational performance post-shutdown positively impacted production and water injection rates: Gross average oil production from Block 3/05 and 3/05A reached an average of 24,381 bopd (Net: 7,203 bopd) in December 2024, with the asset remaining on track to deliver the long-term production outlook previously communicated.'

24,381 bopd is 3,270 bopd(gross)/(15.5%) higher than the average production for 2024 - bodes very well for 2025, as its already above a previous target level published in a Q4/2024 Presentation

'Water injection system upgrades boosted capacity, achieving rates exceeding 80,000 barrels of water per day (bwpd). A further water injection pump is scheduled to come online in 2025, with injection rates expected to increase to in excess of 100,000 bwpd.'

The capacity increase achieved by year end is 33% above the 2024 target of 60,000 bowpd - again bodes well for 2025 (as seen from the Dec production figure), when considering that the target for the year is a 67% increase on the target for 2024 and 25% on the 2024 Y/E figure.

'Over 40 light well interventions ('LWIs') were completed in 2024, successfully contributing over 2,000 bopd of incremental production. A similar number of LWIs are planned for 2025.'

Great achievement and highly profitable when considering the payback time is less than 8 weeks.

'Opex for Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A in 2024 averaged approximately $23/bbl and is expected to be similar in 2025.

Bang on guidance - a great performance considering the impact of inflation on costs across the industry in 2024.

'Substantial progress was made in our gas management plan in 2024 with new gas meters successfully installed to allow accurate measurement starting in 2025 and to enable the JV partnership to develop a fieldwide gas export plan.'

Looking forward to hearing more details - as this sounds like it has the potential to contribute a material new stream of revenue.

'End of year Competent Person's Report is ongoing and is anticipated to demonstrate strong reserve replacement. An update to the market will be provided when the report is finalised, expected Q1 2025.'

This will be the icing on the 2024 cake - with 3.5 billion bbls of oil in place and only 42% recovered to date the potential upside with respect to reserves recovery from the asset development plan over the years ahead is outstanding.

AIMHO/DYOR

Roy Chubby Brown pays good money for material like that !

Some free advice - carry out some decent research as most of what you posted is either ill informed nonsense - or the comments of a short term momentum trader who opened up a short this morning after the s/p pulled back from its early spike.

Some good balanced analysis..... which I strongly suspect is much closer to the investment case analysis of the well researched.