Member Info for MountTeide

L2: moved up to 3 v 3 / 13p v 14p (rest between 15p and 18p)

L2: moved from 1 v 3 / 12.5p v 13.5p

to: 3 v 1 / 13.0p v 13.5p

MM's took in 100k at 12.5p and less than 30 minutes later were selling them on at 13.4p - getting thrown gifts like that at them, no wonder you never see a poor MM!

Art - you come across as a very poorly researched nickel and dime trader. If you carried out a little quality research you would find that the oil price is currently $40 above the average level in Q4/2021 when the O&G industry reported all time record FCF - the downside protection for O&G investors is currently the best its been in living memory.

I have a 800k holding in Petrotal/TPAL - On Castillo's election in Peru last year the PTAL s/p dropped intra day to 13p - it gone on to more than three bag inside a year - Petro's election in Colombia has very similar political and economic parallels to Castello's. Still hold all my PTAL holding - looking for a £1.

Bought 1.2m Jadestine Energy in 2018 shortly after the London IPO - its since averaged a CAGR of 35%. Jadestone is currently selling its oil at a premium to Brent of between $17 and $24/bbl (yes, you read that right!)- - JSE is currently generating $105/bbl of operating cash flow at $110 Brent - yes you read that right too! Management's previous two O&G start ups were sold for $6bn and $8bn respectively - Jadestone is well on its way to being number three for them.

Lucky ? The more I research the luckier I get ! Bought £50k of shares in Clarkson Shipbroker in 2000, still hold - have made 30 times my original investment in capital growth and received back over £400k in dividends.

It sounds like you opened a short following the election result and dont like alternative (positive posts ) - well, your going to be seeing plenty more from me......so, suggest you filter me if you don't want to read them.

Lol - if your investment research is as 'good' as your research on me I'd stick to scratch cards !

Check out the early posts on TXP immediately post the summer 2017 London IPO - there were three posts on ADVFN in two months and two of them were mine - I was buying 250,000 blocks along with Zengas at an average of 8.25p. Built up a 2.2m position at an average of 9.8p, since increased to 2.4m. Three years later they were changing hands for 180p. Still hold the lot!
ADV was a 95% geological CoS, that didnt come in - i invested 4% of my portfolio in it. Posted in Dec 2020, I had just built up a new 2.2m position in SAVE at an average of 9.5p, shares 18 months later were changing hands at 40p. Still hold the lot.

I am one of very few that posts on ADVFN whenever I make an investment in a new company or add or sell down an existing holding, so my performance is totally transparent and there to be shot at. Check out the AXL thread, I built my first 1.0m there at 7.1p before posting its as a new investment.

With respect to geopolitical risk I consider myself as good a judge as any from having first hand experience of working in and or having lived in 117 countries over a 40 year career running shipping companies and ports.

I was the one who called out MPL as a fraud and sent a 120 page complaint to AIM regulation and the SFO explaining how I knew and how they had carried it out. Explained to the largest two II's during telephone calls lasting hours how it was a scam. They elected to ignore me, they're now 99.8% down. The MPL CEO was subsequently arrested on arrival at JFK and charged with carrying out a $300m securities fraud in the US, while still employed by MPL!

Likewise, I called the Aeturnum partnership/takeover of Asia Met Resources a scam but got nothing but flak on here and ADVFN ...... two weeks later it was publicly exposed as a scam - shareholders there need up getting diluted 4 fold. Received over a dozen private messages from investors who collectively avoided losing over £500k as a result of reading and then acting on my research which was freely available in the public domain for those who could be bothered to look.

With respect, if you want to criticise it would be a good start to try and get your facts right.

As Castilla is finding in Peru, the brick wall of harsh economic reality has an enviable reputation of severely tempering even the most radical of left wing ideologues when they gain power.

I would bet good money that this time next year little/nothing will have changed with respect to how AXL operates in Colombia - other than Arrow will probably be producing between 3,000 and 5,000 boepd(assuming they still own their Canadian assets), and are sitting on cash at a level greater than the current market cap.

The record high $85-$90 Colombia netbacks have hardly moved yet the s/p pulls back 30% - in reality, the price now has the known RCS-1 well result thrown in for free!

Recently added 200k(2 x 100k) and another 260k(119k + 141K @ 13.4p) today to take the holding to 2.66m - lifting the average from 7.8p to 9.5p.

This management's long value creation track record taken together with the industry fundamentals and Petro's plans for the O&G and renewables sectors, strongly suggests that on the balance of probabilities, buying the pullbacks and taking a 2-3 year view is likely to prove a very smart move.

According to an Invamer poll released on Friday, Hernandez reached 48.2% of the vote preference, and Petro, scored 47.2%..... Reuters

While Hernandez, of the Anti-Corruption Rulers' League Party, gained from the 47.4% he scored in Invamer's May poll, Petro of the Historic Pact lost 2.8% from the previous survey......

......An oil and gas industry source who declined to be named told Reuters they would much prefer Hernandez.

"The first round was encouraging," the source said, adding the industry could survive a hostile government.

"A four-year hiatus on bidding rounds will not be the death of the industry," the source said, adding everyone has "more than enough (oil and gas) blocks to be getting on with."

The Colombian Mining Association (ACM) was furious this week after Petro linked coal to cocaine, calling it "irresponsible and above all disrespectful," in a message its president Juan Camilo Narino shared with journalists.

Colombia is a major coal exporter and shipped almost 60 million tonnes in 2021, according to the government's DANE statistics agency. Narino said mining is essential to Colombia and the world.

Adding that Colombia would have to grow its agricultural sector six fold to match the economic contribution of mining.

One Industry source said that if Petro wins, he must accept that income generated by mining is vital to funding social programs, which he has pledged to re-vamp to correct profound inequality.

"He'll be a little more aware of how necessary the mining and energy sector is, if he wants to be able to continue investing in all the country's subsidies," the person said.

Oil and mining combined provide more than 50% of Colombia's monthly exports, according to government figures, and up to 8% of gross domestic product.'

My view: Mr Petro has moderated his tone of late, making the situation increasingly reminiscent of the Spring 2021 Presidential election in Peru, which saw left and right wing populists face off. Mr Castillo, the left wing Populist won by the slimmest of margins and once in Government, faced with economic reality, hostile institutions, an unfriendly business sector, and a Parliament/Congress where he held no majority, Castillo was forced to considerably soften his line, such that little has changed with respect to economic or social policy in the country since the election.

Even in the event Petro defies the polls and were to win, as O&G investors found in Peru(I hold Petrotal) I strongly suspect radical change is very unlikely due to Colombia’s similar parliamentary make-up, where the Senate and the House of Representatives does not have a left wing majority, and where old clientelist power structures continue to have a firm grasp on Colombia’s economic and political systems.

AIMHO/DYOR

Bookies, a section of the community who are not known for giving their money away, think its all over bar the shouting, as those odds in decimals are:

2/5 ON - Hernandez (You win £40 plus your stake)

17/10 AGAINST - Petro (You'd win £170 plus your stake)

'Diference between JAde and Ptal is that jade has to spend a lot of money on the depleting gs assets to make them productive and the margins are unattractive'
News to me ....and I hold 1.32m JSE and 0.8m PTAL! Perhaps you can elaborate?
As the last time I looked JSE's operating margin was circa $111/bbl @ $124 Brent + premiums

His simple message of ending corruption by slashing state budgets has resonated in a country where many voters see tackling graft as a top priority. He has promised financial rewards to citizens who report corrupt state officials.

Petro’s result confirms that he has solid support across the country, particularly among the young and the poor. But it also suggests he has a ceiling of about 40% that he struggles to break through, as was indicated in the last election in 2018, when he came second to rightwing incumbent Iván Duque.

“Everyone knows Petro is allied to Marxist guerrilla groups, the Farc and the ELN, and the country can’t forget how those bandits intimidated us for years,” said Jorge Garzón, a 34-year-old who voted for Gutiérrez on Sunday. “That’s what Gustavo Petro is all about and we can’t allow him to win.” '

Presidential Poll - latest aggregator of 11 polls:

+48% - Hernandez
+43% - Petro

Hernandez is picking up most of centre right Gutrerrez's 23% vote - he's up 20% from the 1st round vote .

Left wing Petro's appeal has only changed +2% from the 1st round - suggesting the bookies are probably right that Hernandez, is now seen as the 'Anyone But Petro' candidate and will be very difficult to beat in the second round.

The Presidential election first round result could not have worked out better for the O&G sector given that most of Gutiérrez’s conservative supporters are likely to back Hernández in the second round

Populist Hernández to face leftwinger Petro in Colombia election run-off - FT today

'Populist businessman Rodolfo Hernández pulled off a strong second-place showing in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, comfortably clinching a run-off next month against former leftwing guerrilla Gustavo Petro.

With most results in, Hernández, an outspoken populist who has been compared to former US president Donald Trump, had earned about 28% of the vote, beating the more established centre-right candidate Federico Gutiérrez, who was third with 24%.

Petro won with more than 40% of the vote but given that most of Gutiérrez’s supporters are likely to back Hernández in the second round, the leftwing frontrunner has his work cut out to win the presidency. He won about 8.5mn votes while Hernández and Gutiérrez took nearly 11mn between them.

“This really is the hardest scenario imaginable for Petro and I don’t think his campaign team will be very happy,” said Sandra Botero, political analyst at Rosario University in Bogotá. “It will be an uphill struggle for him in the second round.”

The results were set to spur financial markets on Monday. Economists had forecast that if Hernández made it to the second round, the peso and Colombian assets would strengthen in anticipation of his eventual victory in a run-off.

For most of the campaign, Petro and Gutiérrez led opinion polls but Hernández, a straight-talking 77-year-old millionaire who has financed his own campaign, surged in the final polls before the vote. Some voters on the right seem to have turned to him at the last minute as their best chance of keeping Petro from power.

“To those who voted for me, I tell you now, I won’t fail you,” Hernández said in a video message recorded shortly after the results were announced.

There were jubilant scenes in his home city of Bucaramanga, where he was mayor for four turbulent years from 2016-2019 but was known as an uncompromising campaigner against corruption. When he left office, he had an approval rating of 84 per cent.

Thousands of his supporters took to the city’s streets, waving “Rodolfo” flags and chanting his name.

Hernández’s age, wealth and tirades against traditional politicians have led some to dub him “Colombia’s Trump”. Others, perhaps in reference to his permanent suntan and carefully coiffured comb-over, have likened him to Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.

When he launched his campaign last year, few gave him a chance and as recently as March he was polling at about 10%. Hernández has no political party and leads a makeshift movement called the League of Anti-Corruption Governors. He has made very few public appearances during the campaign, making extensive use of social media instead.

Petro's - Energy and Extractive Industry Policy

"Our government will lay the foundation of (energy/ transition via a gradual de-escalation guarantying the reliability and stability of the energy system, including its sources of
employment and economic resources."

"The exploration and exploitation of non-conventional oil reserves will be forbidden; pilot fracking studies will be halted as well as off-shore developments. No new hydrocar-
bon exploration licenses will be granted, and open-air mining projects will not be allowed."

'Petro's economic advisors have emphasized that the candidate's stance on transforming the sector has been exaggerated, seeking to reinforce the gradual, responsible and predictable
nature of plans to reduce the dependency on oil will be gradual. Ecopetrol, under the policy would be able AND required to provide the oil-based fuel the economy needs for
the next 15 years.' JP Morgan Securities Economic Research Note - April 2022

Predictably, Petro has moderated his tone during the election campaign, making a very public legally binding pledge not to expropriate private assets and insisting that he has no intention of staying on once his single four-year term is up — Colombia’s constitution bans re-election.

He would also be constrained by a highly fragmented congress, where his coalition, the Historic Pact, is the biggest group but has only 18% of the seats in the Senate and 15% in the lower house.

“Petro might say his policies are A, B and C but that doesn’t mean he can deliver on them,” says Luis Fernando Mejía, director of economic think-tank Fedesarrollo. Mejía says that in a worst-case scenario, Petro would preside over “a highly conflictive government that doesn’t get anything done” rather than a government that dismantles Colombia’s institutions.

'No new hydrocarbon exploration licenses will be granted'

Going by industry and media comments ....this would likely mean a cessation of the Licensing Round System (last was Nov 2021 when circa 40 new licenses were issued)....where the Government offers exploration acreage for leasing by O&G E&P companies(typically in return for a fee and a performance or work obligation, such as acquisition of seismic data or drilling a well)......and would only impact licenses already issued, where they were for unconventional shale oil type fracking plays, for which there are very few.

'And somebody, somewhere in Western Africa, is very, very jealous of what is coming our way, given today's potentially libellous article.'

There are two clear contenders !

With a blended OPEX/bbl of $25.50 and production back up to circa 17,000 bopd - JSE will be printing cash with the operating cash flow(pre capex) now at circa $111.5/bbl (equivalent to $1.90m/day - $58.7m/month)

Current Spot Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing/bbl (all prices rounded to nearest whole number) - change to last week in brackets

$204 (+3) / Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$177 (+7) / VLSFO - APAC Average
$148 (+8) / Jadestone / STAG
$135 (+5) / Jadestone / Montara - PM - Maari
$124 (+4) / Brent
$123 (+4) / WTI
$105 (-2) / HSFO - APAC Average

$23.37 / Latest Stag Lifting - May
$11.11 / Latest Tapis Premium to dated Brent

Exxon/Petronas Chad/Cameroon Asset Acquisition

Tremendous timing to complete this deal:

$120/bbl - Brent Spot
$110/bbl - Brent average price since Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Feb-June/22)
$104/bbl - Brent average price YTD 2022
$92/bbl - Brent average price (Jan-Feb/22)
$71/bbl - Brent average price in 2021
$65/bbl - Base Case for the Deal (Pre + Post Acquisition)

The very large uplift in the oil price in 2022 may very likely see the net price paid for the assets reduced to circa $300m - $325m

At the average $110/bbl Brent spot price since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, if continued, would see the potential net price paid for the assets generated in FCF by the assets in just 9 months!

Upstream + Downstream FCF Generation
@ $110 Brent - $401m (+44% over $65 oil Base Case)

Upstream FCF Generation
@ $110 Brent - $252m (+95% over $65 oil Base Case)

Data taken from the Exxon/Petronas Acquisition - Investor presentation

Check out the Ad*fn site - plenty of research posted there.

I hold 1% bought in late Dec and early Jan, largely on the strength of the remarkable previous track record of the management and, performance (and potential) of the assets in their hands since taking control of the company about 18 months ago .

Sold out In late December 2020 with a modest profit, after becoming extremely uncomfortable with the investment risk after carrying out some in-depth research on Aeturnum Energy and its predecessor Sugiy Energy and, getting a friend who was based in Indonesia to do likewise.

Retained one ARS share, as I did in MPL, to retain an interest to see if there is anything I can further learn about the management and their business development decision making......with which to improve my future investment decision making.

'ARS over a barrel , either a low ball offer or just let ARS go to the wall and pick it up even cheaper as there appears to be no other suitor interested in the assets?'
I did not think it was encouraging that after a beauty parade of the assets, an indebted mid cap Indonesian coal miner proved the best, possibly only interest they had.

With respect to investment risk/reward generally, trusting my gut instinct now carries a large weighting in my equity investment decisions ......and more often than not comes out on the winning side, as I like to err on the side caution. As Warren Buffett famously stated...The first rule of equity investing is that "A return of your investment is more important than a return on it.'

Well, well, well.....The benefit of high quality research once again proves it's investment worth !

The finishing touches to the Aeturnmum scam took place in a Singapore Courtroom last week - the huge proceeds from their ARS rogering of Manini, his management shills, and sadly, long suffering shareholders laundered away long ago.

A carbon copy of the shysters previous scam at Sugiy Energy...its well documented MO was in the public domain for all who wanted to see and could be bothered to carry out even the most basic of research leg-work.

Liquidator: Aeturnum Energy International winding up application to be heard at High Court - 28th March 2022 - Singapore Manifold Times

'The winding up application of energy solutions provider Aeturnum Energy International Pte Ltd is scheduled to be heard at the High Court of Singapore in April, according to a Friday (25 March) notice on the Government Gazette.

Creditors of Aeturnum Energy International are required on or before 15 April 2022 to send in their names, addresses and full particulars of their debts or claims and the names and addresses of their solicitors (if any) to the Liquidators.'

There is no truth in the scurrilous rumour currently sweeping the Singapore financial district that Manini has forwarded a claim for a years supply of lubrication gel.

Gifts a bunch of long-con artists with a rap sheet as long as one of Harry Houdini's arms, 20% of the company at 0.9p a share, and then spends $millions of shareholders funds on 'experts' over the next year to do nothing more than inadvertently help the shysters to carry out a scam that results in a four fold dilution of shareholders investments!

With judgement like this who in their right mind would ever again invest in a company run by Manini?

' "Our work with Aeturnum to date has provided an insight into their high level of professionalism and integrity and provided us with the confidence to pursue this transaction and partner with them as major shareholders in the proposed IDX listing and development of PT WIN going forward. We now remain focused on completing due diligence and binding documentation that allows for shareholder approval." '

- Tony Manini

Asia Met's Due Diligence could have been written by Aeturnum's PR Consultants!

'Aeturnum Energy is one of the fastest growing independent energy firms in the world, delivering bespoke energy solutions to over 100 trading partners globally.

Partners include some of the most reputable companies in the energy industry, ranging from oil majors to international traders and national oil companies.

AE works collaboratively with suppliers and customers to provide integrated trading products and logistics solutions and financing services to market participants, connecting international upstream suppliers to downstream customers across Asia.

With a solid financial track record, AE has proven strong relationships with internationally recognised financial institu

9.6 million (2.06%) of transaction volume reported after the closing bell - a very large movement of shares between II's - generating the largest daily transaction volume for 5 months.

Shows the clout of the new management - the've gone from the old management's third division Nomad with a market cap of $6m to Canaccord, a global investment bank and brokerage premier league titan with a $75bn market cap, able to give Arrow with perfect timing, as it enters a period of fast growth, immediate access to a far larger and better heeled client list.

L2: No wonder Canaccord were had on the Bid all day yesterday !

Lol!