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Were Petro to win the Presidential election he would enter office with his hands tied by political structures in Colombia as well as economic realities.

Centro Democratico, the right wing party of current president Iván Duque, forms part of the largest voting coalitions in both the Senate and Congress, and are likely to strike down any proposals they view as radical.

Petro has not provided any details on exactly how his plan to replace oil and gas revenues would work, nor accounted for the impact of direct foreign investment in the oil and gas private sectors.

"Going from concept to execution depends on a lot of factors beyond the presidency," said Sergio Gúzman, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a research and consultancy firm in Bogotá. "Trying to replace that revenue stream depends also on tourism infrastructure that Colombia currently lacks."

"Are investors' fears of a Petro presidency warranted? Yes and no," said Gúzman. "For those that don't have an appetite for risk, perhaps. Mutual funds and more conservative investors might pull back. But that could also leave a lot of money on the table for less risk-averse investors who understand how Colombia really works."

Investment in Colombia, however, will still be a crucial part of the domestic economy, as will hydrocarbon technology. When the smoke and rhetoric from the election season clears, the challenge of actually governing Colombia will be much different for the victor than from the campaigning lectern.

If Petro wins, he will be facing an intransient opposition coalition in the legislative branch, a powerful Colombian business class, and the economic realities of day-to-day life.

"In some areas, this offers investment opportunities as well," said Gúzman. "If you understand Colombia at a sub-national level, you also understand that investing in the capital is very different from investing in riskier areas."

"The private sector(O&G) isn't going anywhere," he said.

Source; Mostly from S&P Global

Global Marine fuel and gas oil pricing averaged a new all-time record in March, up 349% compared to the 2020 Covid Low - the VLSFO/Brent spread also averaged a record $39/bbl.

With Brent averaging $103/bbl YTD, production expected to average a 2022 mid guidance of 17,000 bopd, OPEX dropping $3/bbl(11%) to a mid guidance $25.50/bbl, IMO 2020 and Tapis premiums averaging a combined record of $7.50/bbl YTD for Jadestone's production mix, the company's high denomination bank note printing press should be in rude health and generating record operating cash flow of circa $85/bbl YTD.

Jadestone's Stag production should currently be realising circa $128/bbl inclusive of the most recent $20/bbl regional heavy sweet premium to Brent, while the light sweet Montara and PM grades around $114/bbl inclusive of the current $6/bbl Tapis premium.

Spot Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing/bbl (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$200 / Marine Gas Oil - Houston / All time record price
$189 / Marine Gas Oil - Global Average
$147 / VLSFO - Global Average
$128 / Jadestone / STAG
$114 / HSFO
$114 / Jadestone / Montara - PM - Maari
$108 / Brent
$103 / WTI

Asian demand for marine fuel oil is at an all-time record level, and driving very strong price premiums to Brent for both light and heavy sweet crudes.

At the estimated $110.5/bbl average realised price YTD of Jadestone's blended production, management guided mid range 2022 Production and OPEX, Jadestone should be realising (on an annualised basis):

$542m/yr - Operating cash flow(pre Capex & PM Profit Share)
$705m/yr - Revenue
$573m - Current market cap

Completion of the Maari acquisition in late H1/2022(in addition to a circa $75-$80m net consideration cheque) would increase the annual cash flow and revenue generation to:

$643m/yr - Operating Cash Flow
$836m/yr - Revenue

AIMHO/DYOR

Colombian presidential hopeful seeks to ease oil sector fears - BN Americas

A leading candidate for Colombia's upcoming presidential election has pledged to continue promoting investments in oil and gas if he is voted into power, amid fears for the industry's future.

Former Medellín mayor Federico Gutiérrez said calls to halt exploration projects were irresponsible and jeopardized the country's economic wellbeing.

"Some populist and authoritarian [candidates] have claimed that they would stop oil exploration the day after winning the election," Gutiérrez, who is one of five aspirants running for the right-wing Equipo por Colombia ticket, told newspaper Portafolio.

"This is untrue and irresponsible. Oil represents more than 30% of exports, and thanks to its profits, its revenue accounts for almost 12% of social programs."

Leading the push to end drilling and accelerate renewable power development is former Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro of the leftist Pacto Histórico coalition. The 61-year-old is the current frontrunner with 27% of the intended vote, according to the latest survey by independent pollster Centro Nacional de Colombia.

"Stopping [hydrocarbon] exploration would imply ending those [social] programs and would leave people in misery," Gutiérrez said.

"My proposal is for a responsible energy transition. I will continue to improve the wind and solar energy implementation processes and I will also be very responsible with all oil and gas extraction projects, so they meet social and environmental specifications. Without oil and gas there is no energy transition. We have a responsibility with climate change but the [future of oil and gas] cannot be cut short."

The Colombian economy's heavy dependence on crude oil revenue was highlighted well when, even in 2020, a year where oil prices plunged into negative territory and Brent averaged just $41.96 per barrel, it still accounted for 17% of fiscal revenue and 28% of export earnings.

Before the late-2014 oil price collapse from $100/bbl, the economic importance of crude oil was even greater. It generated over a fifth of government revenue, and more than 60% of Colombia’s exports by value.

Colombia's Covid ravaged economy contracted by nearly 7% in 2021. A cash-strapped Bogota urgently needed to reactivate the energy sector, by attracting additional investment, as at the current rate of production, which averaged around 736,000 barrels/d in 2021, Colombia only has sufficient proven crude oil reserves for 6.3 years.

In 2021, the Government introduced a package of new measures to encourage more investment in the sector, as the Nation's dire hydrocarbon shortage was weighing heavily on the petroleum-dependent economy. Crude oil is easily Colombia’s largest legal export by value, accounting for $12 billion or 33% of all exports for the first 11 months of 2021, earning roughly a fifth of government revenue.

The Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association estimates 2022 investment in hydrocarbon operations will reach $4.4 billion, which is 47% greater than 2021 and more than double 2020. While that investment is equivalent to 2019 the ACP anticipates that 2022 exploration spending will exceed $1.1 billion which, if that eventuates, will be the largest amount spent on oil and gas exploration in Colombia since 2014.

In January 2022, the energy ministry announced that it had awarded 30 blocks to six energy companies as part of Colombia’s 2021 bid round. The contracts are expected to generate an investment of at least $148 million.

These developments point to a fast improving outlook for Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector.

And strongly suggests that as in Peru, where one Presidential candidate was also suggesting a similar O&G exploration ban policy, when push came to shove, he soon changed his mind when it became a deal breaker to his candidacy when he was unable to explain where the huge lost revenues for social programmes were going to come from.

In my view, there is more chance of Gustavo Petro winning the Grand National riding side saddle on a Shetland pony than getting elected President in Colombia with a policy that puts an industry that generates circa 20% of Government revenue and potentially more than 60% of its export earnings at $100 Brent at risk.

AIMHO/DYOR

Ref: Maari .......At worst, the reserve release will not have done any harm - nor will the recent switch by the West to improve their energy security.

I invested heavily in JSE at the time of its 35p London IPO in Sept 2018.

Investment Performance since that date:
+174% - Jadestone (circa 35% CAGR)
-34% - EOG
-67% - I3E

£100k invested in each at the time of Jadestone's IPO would be worth today:
£274k - Jadestone
£66k - EOG
£34k - I3E

First MM on the 30p Bid for over 3 years - only another 3p to go to get to the collective average weighted price of the II's who have taken up the $325m of placings to date.

Three Institutional Investors with notifiable holdings collectively increased their shareholdings during the last month by a massive 88.80 million shares(7.12%)

7/2/22 - 8 Institutional shareholdings above 3% totalling 55.66% + 4.6% directors = 60.26%.

11/3/22 - 8 Institutional shareholdings above 3% totalling 62.78% + 4.6% directors = 67.38%.

Main changes:

Aberdeen/SL increased their holding by 28.5m(2.31%) from 125.1m to 153.6m(12.31%)

Ingalls & Snyder increased their holding by 28.2m(2.29%) from 72.7m to 100.9m(8.08%)

Cavendish increased their holding by 48.8m(3.74%) from 51.2m to 100.0m(7.66%)

VR Global 51.7m(3.96%) have reduced their holding to below 3% the notifiable threshold

With the demise of the Vincent heavy sweet crude's suitability for continued inclusion in the Singapore Marine Fuel Oil Blending Pool due due to a reduction in quality, Australian heavy sweet crude premiums INCREASED for April Loading to mid $14-15/bbl over dated Brent! (Source: S&P Global Platts - 17 March 2022)

Heavy sweet crude oil is extremely rare and constitutes less than 1% of global crude oil production, and since the introduction of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Regs have attracted premiums to Dated Brent averaging between $8 and $31/bbl for the Australian grades.

Heavy sweet crudes are ideal for blending into low sulphur marine fuels due to the rich fuel oil yield, very low sulphur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point.

Heavy sweet crudes routinely go straight into the low sulphur marine fuels blending pool across Asia.

The high premiums paid do not reflect the refining value of the crude, but rather its value for blending into the low sulphur fuel oil pool, and that demand for heavy sweet crude oil is orders of magnitude greater than supply.

The highest quality heavy sweet grades that currently attract premiums to dated Brent of between $14 and $15/bbl because of their close location/low transport cost to the Asian Marine Fuel Oil blending pools are:

0.14% Sulphur / 18.5% API - STAG - Australian / JADESTONE
0.19% Sulphur / 19.3% API - PYRENEES - Australian / BHP and SANTOS
0.37% Sulphur / 18.5% API - VAN GOGH - Australian / BHP

The second tier heavy sweet crude grades that are currently attracting estimated premiums to Brent of between $3 and $6/bbl due to their slightly lower quality and/or the additional sea transportation cost of circa $5/bbl to the globally important marine fuel hubs at Singapore and Fujairah are:

0.11% Sulphur / 21.1% API - DOBA - EXXON/SAVANNAH ENERGY - CHAD
0.19% Sulphur / 18.5% API - ESCALANTI - ARGENTINA
0.20% Sulphur / 20.8% API - DURI - INDONESIA
0.34% Sulphur / 27.6% API - DJENO - CONGO
0.49% Sulphur / 23.7% API - DALIA - ANGOLA

Premiums for Australian heavy sweet crude grades have increased to mid $14-15/bbl over dated Brent.

Previously, at these Australian heavy sweet crude price premiums Doba heavy sweet crude has attracted a price premium to dated Brent of $3-6/bbl.

With the recent demise of the of the previously important Australian Vincent heavy sweet crude's suitability for continued inclusion in the Singapore Marine Fuel Oil Blending Pool due to a fall off in quality, its likely that demand and the price premiums for Exxon/Savannah's Doba's production will increase.

Heavy sweet crude oil is extremely rare and constitutes less than 1% of global crude oil production, and since the introduction of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Regs attracted premiums to Dated Brent averaging between $8 and $31/bbl for the Australian grades.

Heavy sweet crudes are ideal for blending into low sulphur marine fuels due to the rich fuel oil yield, very low sulphur content and unique specifications such as low pour point and high flash point.

Heavy sweet crudes routinely go straight into the low sulphur marine fuels blending pool across Asia.

The high premiums paid do not reflect the refining value of the crude, but rather its value for blending into the low sulphur fuel oil pool, and that demand for heavy sweet crude oil is orders of magnitude greater than supply.

The highest quality heavy sweet grades that are currently attracted premiums to dated Brent of between $14 and $15/bbl are:

0.14% Sulphur / 18.5% API - STAG - Australian / JADESTONE
0.19% Sulphur / 19.3% API - PYRENEES - Australian / BHP and SANTOS
0.37% Sulphur / 18.5% API - VAN GOGH - Australian / BHP

The second tier heavy sweet crude grades that are currently attracting estimated premiums to Brent of between $3 and $6/bbl due to their slightly lower quality and/or the additional sea transportation cost of circa $5/bbl to the globally important marine fuel hubs at Singapore and Fujairah are:

0.11% Sulphur / 21.1% API - DOBA - EXXON/SAVANNAH - CHAD
0.19% Sulphur / 18.5% API - ESCALANTI - ARGENTINA
0.20% Sulphur / 20.8% API - DURI - INDONESIA
0.34% Sulphur / 27.6% API - DJENO - CONGO
0.49% Sulphur / 23.7% API - DALIA - ANGOLA

5 UK oil stocks to consider as energy prices skyrocket - Motley Fool

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/02/21/5-uk-oil-stocks-to-consider-as-energy-prices-skyrocket/

Small Cap O&G companies - "High Risk, in a significantly falling oil price environment?"

If the Motley Fool carried out some research worthy of the name they would have established that at the Covid driven 2020 oil price crash low Jadestone Energy was still cash flow positive at $25/bbl Brent, while 95% plus of the O&G sector were underwater.

Buffett on an Economic Moat:
"What we're trying to do," he said, answering a question from the audience, "is we're trying to find a business with a wide and long-lasting moat around it, protecting a terrific economic castle with an honest lord in charge of the castle."

Describes perfectly the Jadestone management's brilliant deal making and low OPEX second phase operator business model - the perfect economic moat.

AIMHO/DYOR

Jadestone Energy - (JSE) - A high denomination bank note printing press business masquerading as an O&G company!

With Brent increasing to $118/bbl, production currently back to the year end 2021 figure of circa 20,500 bopd, and OPEX dropping to a guided average for 2022 of $25.50/bbl, Jadestone Energy's high denomination bank note printing press business is now operating in overdrive.

Marine fuel and gas oil pricing continues to strengthen to the near all time record level set in 2008.

Asian demand for marine fuel oil has made further new all-time highs, and continues to drive very strong price premiums to Brent for both light and heavy sweet crudes.

Stag production should currently be realising circa $131/bbl inclusive of the most recent $12.5 regional heavy sweet premium to Brent, while the light sweet Montara and PM grades around $124/bbl inclusive of the latest Tapis premium.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - change compared to pricing last week(first Bracket) and Jan 2020(second Bracket) - all prices rounded to nearest whole number:

$167 / (+28)/(+88) - Marine Gas Oil - Singapore
$137 / (+19)/(+74) - VLSFO - Singapore
$131 / (+22)/(+73) - Jadestone / STAG
$124 / (+22)/(+71) - Jadestone / Montara
$124 / (+22)/(+71) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia
$124 / (+22)/(+71) - Maari
$118 / (+22)/(+73) - Brent
$116 / (+22)/(+68) - WTI
$94 / (+7)/(+50) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - Singapore

At today's $118 Brent price, management guided current OPEX of $25.50/bbl and the latest IMO 2020 heavy sweet and Tapis premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising an incredible circa $100/bbl of operating cash flow(pre Capex and PM profit share) for its mix of circa 20,500 bopd of production now that Montara is back in full production.

Suggesting the business should currently be realising:
$63.6m/month - $190.8m/Qtr - Operating cash flow(pre Capex and PM Profit share),
$79.4m/month - $238.2m/Qtr - Revenue

At an average of todays Brent price and IMO 2020 and Tapis oil price premiums, and the mid case 2022 Production Guidance of 17,000 boepd, and $25.5/bbl OPEX, Jadestone would realise:

$620m of Operating cash flow in 2022(pre Capex and PM Profit Share)
$775m/yr of Operating Revenue
$611m - Current Market Cap

This suggests that were Maari to close by end of April 2022, assuming a 2022 average of $118 Brent for the remainder of 2022, Jadestone Energy could well by end April 2022 have between $300m and $325m in cash, no debt, and would likely generate circa…

$708m of operating cash flow(pre Capex and PM Profit share) in 2022 and,
$882m of Revenue

AIMHO/DYOR

The S&P 500 Energy Sector has returned 27.85% YTD while the S&P 500 Index has delivered a 9.65% loss - a massive 37.5% relative difference in performance in just two months. And yet the S&P 500 average P/E ratio is still multiples of the Energy Sector.

Over the last week the Relative Performance YTD between the Energy Sector and S&P 500 widened by a further 3.74% from 33.76% to 37.50%, adding further weight to the view that the 'Great Transition' out of highly priced, general market and tech growth stocks into recession ravaged value Energy and Commodity stocks is not only continuing but now accelerating, as a result of the global impact of the appalling geopolitical situation in Ukraine on the O&G sector.

S&P 500 - Sectors & Industries
YTD Performance (Weekly Change in Brackets):

+27.85% (+1.38%) - Energy
-3.58% (-1.10%) - Consumer Staples
-5.22% (-7.71%) - Financials
-6.53% (-0.02%) - Utilities
-7.28% (-1.16%) - Industrials
-8.49% (-0.85%) - Healthcare
-9.65% (-2.36%) - S&P 500
-10.31% (-2.99%) - Materials
-13.36% (-2.30%) - Info Tech
-13.39% (-1.03%) - Property
-13.98% (-1.66%) - Comms
-14.53% (-2.91%) - Consumer Discretionary

Biggest decline of the week was the Financial sector (-7.71%) which saw a huge weekly loss relative to the Energy sector of 9.09%. The largest YTD loss is between the Energy and Consumer Discretionary sector at 42.38%.

Even after the announcement of the Exxon shallow water asset deal Seplat is still below its 12 month, 2 year, 3 year and 4 year highs.

Savannah Energy is above its 12 month, 2 year and 3 year highs, and only marginally below its 4 year high.

Of the Major and Leading UK Independents in the list below ONLY Serica and Jadestone have made recent all time highs.

Of the remainder, many have made recent(1-2yr) post Covid 2020 Low Point highs but ALL are still well below their 3-4 year highs, and in many cases hugely below their all-time highs.

Share-price performance since Jadestone Energy listed in London on 28th September 2018, when Brent hit circa $83 (the highest price Brent achieved between Oct 2014 and Dec 2021).

+429% - Touchstone Energy
+196% - Serica Energy
+162% - Jadestone Energy
+13% - Brent Price Today

-6% - Exxon
-14% - Savannah Energy
-23% - Shell
-24% - Cairn
-26% - Brent Ave Price
-28% - Seplat
-29% - BP
-40% - Enquest
-47% - US Oil Fund ETF(USO)
-78% - I3E
-80% - Tullow
-87% - Premier Oil

Brent
$82.72 - 28th Sept 2018
$94.00 - Today
$62.00 - Average since Sept 2018

By any objective analysis, since Jadestone's September 2018 London IPO listing, the s/p performance of Touchstone, Serica and Jadestone relative to the wider O&G market and Brent has been outstanding.

AIMHO/DYOR

The S&P 500 Energy Sector has returned 26.47% YTD while the S&P 500 Index has delivered a 7.29% loss.

Over the last week the YTD Relative Performance between the Energy Sector and S&P 500 widened by a further 5.97% from 27.79% to 33.37%, adding further weight to the view that the 'Great Transition' out of highly priced, general market and tech growth stocks into recession ravaged value Energy and Commodity stocks not only continues apace but is accelerating.

S&P 500 - Sectors & Industries

YTD Performance (Weekly Change in Brackets):
+26.47% (+3.29%) - Energy
+2.49% (+1.14%) - Financials
-2.48% (-0.90%) - Consumer Staples
-6.12% (-2.71%) - Industrials
-6.51% (-1.97%) - Utilities
-7.29% (-2.68%) - S&P 500
-7.32% (-2.02%) - Materials
-7.64% (-1.00%) - Healthcare
-11.06% (-4.39%) - Info Tech
-11.62% (-2.48%) - Consumer Discretionary
-12.32% (-7.13%) - Comms
-12.36% (-3.15%) - Property

Biggest decline of the week was the Comms sector (-7.13%) which saw a massive weekly loss relative to the Energy sector of 10.49%, taking the YTD loss to 38.79%.

Some thoughts:
Assumptions:
20,500 bopd - Production entering 2022: comprising,
11,500 bopd - Montara
6,500 bopd - PM
2,500 bopd - Stag

Field Decline Rates/Year:
18% - Montara
12% - Stag
12% - PM

Planned Shutdowns
3 week / H1/2022 - Stag
3 week / H2/2022 - Montara and PM

Unplanned Partial Shutdown
4 weeks / H1/2022 - Montara - Reduced Production(I've assumed a 75% drop)

Production Development
1,500 bopd - Stag from Q4/2022

This would generate the following estimated production rates:
18,445 bopd - H1/2022
16,347 bopd - H2/2022
17,396 bopd - Average for 2022

With an estimated 2022 Year End Production Rate of 19,080 bopd
9,660 bopd - Montara
5,720 bopd - PM
3,700 bopd - Stag (after addition of 1,500 bopd from 2 infill wells)

Upside potential to base case:
Maari closing would lift 2022 production to 20,570 bopd and the year end rate to 22,250 bopd
While an acquisition during 2022 of 5,000 - 7,500 bopd would potentially lift production to the 27,250 - 29,750 bopd range.

Base case Estimated Revenue, Operating Cash Flow and Production Projections:
Assumptions:
$25.50/bbl - Mid Range OPEX guidance
$92/bbl - Average 2022 Brent Price
$7/bbl - Average 2022Premium to Brent
$97.5m - Mid Range Capex guidance
18,445 bopd - H1 Production
16,347 bopd - H2 Production
17,396 bopd - Average for 2022
19,080 bopd - Year End Production

H1/2022
$334m - Revenue
$248m - Cash Flow (pre Capex and PM Profit Share)

H2/2022
$295m - Revenue
$219m - Cash Flow (pre Capex and PM Profit Share)

Full Year 2022
$629m - Revenue
$467m - Cash Flow (pre Capex and PM Profit Share)
$370m - Cash Flow (pre PM Profit Share)

Maari would potentially add:
3,174 bopd of Production
$112m of Revenue
$83m of Cash Flow (pre Capex)
Plus a cheque for circa $75m for the economic benefit accrued from the 1/1/2019
effective start date of the deal.

Some comments from the Q&A

Inorganic growth - "opportunities are very good"
Exit of majors continues, lack of credible counter-parties means limited competition
Improving quality and quantity of opportunities coming to the market
Currently in 6 data rooms and have screened over 50 opportunities.
Will typically look at acquisitions in the $10m to $500m range, provided they meet the investment criteria.

Field Production Infrastructure and FPSO - Regulatory Planned Maintenance
Longer cycle - every 3-4 year - average 3 week shutdown
Short cycle - 7 days a year.

Field Uptime - Montara
72.0% - 2017 / Under previous operator
96.4% - 2021 / Under JSE Operatorship

2022 Shareholder Returns:
Based on current level of cash generation being maintained - there is the potential for an increased dividend, share buybacks, and a Special Dividend.

AIMHO/DYOR

With Brent at $93.5/bbl, we're now realising an average of over $100/bbl, inclusive of IMO 2020 and Tapis Premiums to dated Brent.

The S&P 500 Energy Sector has returned 75.62% over the last year while the S&P 500 Index has averaged 22.41%, adding further weight to the view that the 'Great Transition' out of highly priced, general market and tech growth stocks into recession ravaged value Energy and Commodity stocks actually started well over a year ago and is accelerating according to latest data.

S&P 500 - Sectors & Industries

YTD to date Performance :
+23.18% - Energy
+1.35% - Financials
-1.58% - Consumer Staples
-3.41% - Industrials
-4.54% - Utilities
-4.61% - S&P 500
-5.19% - Comms
-5.30% - Materials
-6.64% - Healthcare
-6.67% - Info Tech
-9.14% - Consumer Discretionary
-9.21% - Property

1 Year Performance
+75.62% - Energy
+36.98% - Financials
+28.76% - Property
+25.63% - Info Tech
+22.41% - S&P 500
+21.26% - Materials
+20.56% - Industrials
+20.12% - Consumer Staples
+16.03% - Comms
+14.46% - Healthcare
+11.92% - Consumer Discretionary
+9.86% - Utilities

Source: Research by Fidelity Investments

Accugas - Uquo Nat Gas Central Processing Facility(CPF)

The facility has been constructed to allow the bolt on of modular processing to increase capacity beyond the design specification of 240 MMscfpd.

SAVE's 260km gas transport pipeline network has a design capacity of up to 600 MMscfpd, and is currently handing production of circa 131 MMscfpd.

This means, SAVE is extremely well positioned to increase production at the Uquo CPF at minimal cost, and where needed, to very cost effectively increase the CPF capacity to handle major new gas supply contracts, even of the size that Ibom Power's huge new 500MW Generating Plant would demand.

AIMHO/DYOR