Member Info for MountTeide

$586m for 75% of the Doba Oil Project (33.9k bopd) and 70% of the Oil Pipeline (129k bopd) - with an economic effective date of 1/1/2021.

A totally transformational set of acquisitions !

The Mother Lode - Patience is a virtue !

Economic effect date off 1 / 1 2021 - as was suggested - AK is a fast learner !

Lol !

Short a company that at $75 Brent is currently priced around one times its annual operating cash flow before capex ?

JSE is currently generating around 12 times the daily rig hire charge in operating cash flow!

The only way SAV/Vitol could possibly lose this proposed deal at this late stage would be if another operator were to 'BUY' it politically !!

'Production is initially constrained at 30,000 bopd by the oil handling capacity with a plateau duration of 0.7, 1.3 and 2.2 years in the 1C, 2C and 3C realisations.'

'RISC estimates operating costs of approximately US$60 million per year'

Some thoughts:

This suggests an ultra high cash generation performance during the plateaux production phase:

30,000 bopd is 10.9 million bbls/yr - with estimated operating costs of $60m/yr, this would deliver OPEX/bbl of $5.5 at plateaux production.

Suggesting operating cash flow(attributable to Advance Energy) during estimated period of PLATEAUX production of:

At today's $85/bbl Brent price
$313 million - 1C (8.5 months)
$585 million - 2C ( 1 yr 3.5 months)
$989 million - 3C ( 2 years 2.5 months)

At $60/bbl Brent
$218 million - 1C (8.5 months)
$403 million - 2C ( 1 yr 3.5 months)
$683 million - 3C ( 2 years 2.5 months)

The Buffalo Field was abandoned in 2004 while still producing 4,000 bopd - Brent then was $25/bbl

Enquest (ENQ) earlier this year paid Suncor $325m plus a possible $50m contingency for the 10k boepd of production and 17 mmbbls of 2P reserves of its 27% non operated Golden Eagle area North Sea assets.

Jadestone Energy (JSE) following the acquisition of the Petronas Malaysia assets and on the soon to be completed Maari asset deal - will likely have received a net consideration of circa $84 million for assets currently producing circa 10,000 boepd net to Jadestone, with combined P2 reserves of 22.1 mmbbls.......which have low cost re-investment potential capable of maintaining the current level of production for circa 5 years.... generating operating cash flow of over $200 million a year!

ADV - In the event of success with the Buffalo 10 appraisal well could well have a net 17.17 mm bbls of P2 reserves, peak net production of circa 18,795 bopd, peak annual net CF of $187.2m at $60 Brent, an asset IRR of 106%, and a total field payback time of less than 6 months! All for a total price of $80m inclusive of the low cost field development.

AIMHO/DYOR

I see Advance Energy as an early stage Talisman Energy/Ithaca Energy/Jadestone Energy.

As with the management of those three companies, the management of Advance Energy appear to have the track record, industry expertise and professional reputation required to secure the financial backing necessary to quickly grow the company into a significant player in the very fast growing, high demand, premium priced Asia/Pacific energy market......a 'buyers market', where the regional O&G basins are currently being vacated in unprecedented numbers by the majors and large independents transitioning into renewables.

The maturing Asia Pacific O&G basins are very much a 'buyers market' today. They contain a relatively small number of second phase specialists, and so the competition for assets is usually very modest(by North Sea standards) and usually reflected in the price the assets change hands for.

By way of example, after the acquisition of the Petronas Malaysia assets and on the imminent completion of the OMV Maari/NZ asset - Jadestone Energy will have likely received a net consideration of circa $84 million from the owners for assets with combined P2 reserves of 22.1 mmbbls currently producing circa 10,000 boepd net to Jadestone.....which have re-investment potential to maintain this level of production for circa 5 years....and which at $75 Brent are currently generating operating cash flow close to $250 million a year!

AIMHO/DYOR

Added a final 721k at the 3.9p Bid price to take the holding up to 7.0m.

Added another 811k at 3.92p - increasing the holding to 6.3m.

The aim of posting on these bb's is not to be persuasive but, on the basis that the collective wisdom/research of an investment community is far greater than that of any one individual.

Working together and sharing information, research and professional knowledge, enables the PI community to level the playing field a little with an Institutional Investment community that has the benefit of access to far better information than PI's as a result of close relationships with many of the Boards of the Companies they invest in.

Having O&G and shipping/commodity industry professionals posting research/professional knowledge can often provide insights superior to most, if not all the best analysts employed by the II community; because unlike virtually all analysts, the industry professionals have a much better technical and commercial knowledge and management understanding of their own sectors from decades of first hand management experience through every stage of the long term, market cycle.

After reading much of the analyst 'research' put out over the years on the Shipping and Port's sector, two friends and myself with a collective 90 years of senior management experience across those sectors running Shipping companies and Ports concluded, most were of extremely modest value for investment purposes.

By implication, we also concluded most research written by analysts in other sectors was highly likely to be of modest value too for the same reason - few if any of the analysts hold any professional qualifications in the sectors they research or have any first hand senior management experience.

AIMHO/DYOR

Having held a 7 figure position in Jadestone since the 2018 London IPO, I can say with completely confidence, there is more chance of Dianne Abbott winning the Grand National riding side saddle on a Shetland pony than Jadestone CEO Paul Blakeley paying for another day's rig hire if he could avoid it !

Only leveraged 'investors' with less patience than the life cycle of a mayfly are likely to be concerned whether the Buffalo well spuds in November or December.
For seasoned investors with a 3-5 year investment outlook it should be of no significance, particularly since ADV has no control over when they will receive the rig, and can only advise the market of updated forecasts as and when they receive them.

The VLSFO - Brent spread has averaged between $12 and $18/bbl during 2021, while the Stag premium to Brent has averaged between $7 and $12/bbl.

Such is the current strong demand for VLSFO by the global shipping fleet, the fall in Brent on Friday saw the VLFSO - Brent spread blow out to $28/bbl.

This suggests the premium to dated Brent for Australian heavy sweet crudes like Stag has the potential to rise significantly above its current $7-8/bbl level.

AIMHO/DYOR

During the summer of 2019, Jadestone carried out a work-over programme on the Skua, Swift and Swallow wells using Valaris 107, including the perforation of additional sands(Swallow-1), the unlocking of new heel volumes(Skua-11) and to restore gas lift to two high performing wells (Swift-2 and Skua-11), during which they experienced a three week over-run before off-hiring the rig. All the well work-overs were completed successfully.

To date, this latest well work-over programme using the Valaris 107 is currently circa 14 days beyond the time scheduled for carrying out the work.

Thanks.

What time stamp has that data - because the lat and long position is 3 miles North of where the Valaris 107 has been located for the last few weeks!

The more I research ADV's Buffalo Field 'Attic' and its 95% CoS and 20-25,000 Bopd single well potential..... the more I think the management named it wrongly ..... the 'Penthouse Suite' would appear to be more apt considering its extremely low risk, ultra high impact upside potential.
AIMHO/DYOR

'I have never heard of an exploration program with such a success rate, ever, anywhere. '

SAVE's Agadem Rift Basin exploration drilling programme has made 5 separate oil discoveries from its first 5 drills ....containing 2P Reserves averaging 18.28 MMstb per discovery.........and has 146 other targets to drill that have an independently assessed geological chance of success rated at more than 75%.

'Furthermore, on success, Advance will be responsible for sourcing the necessary development capital.' AGM statement.

Funding is 50/50 - Advance will be responsible for identifying a lender and negotiating a development finance deal.