Member Info for MountTeide

How to turn £1 million into £1,280 - let the MPL shysters look after your investments !

£0.75m revenue generated - this will be entirely ground rent for handing over a large area of the terminal and jetty to the third party building the Karanja Creek bridge.

£4.4m of annual Interest payments begin from March 2022.

Following which MPL will then have to repay £11.18 million annually to the banks - £6.78m in capital repayments plus £4.4m in interest!

By my reckoning the £10 million placing foolishly supported by the II's has improved the cash position such that its given the Shysters another 12 months or so on their II financed gravy train, before it finally hits the buffers and the banks repossess the facility under the lien they have over the asset.

AIOHO/DYOR

Were the Exxon deal for Savannah to buy a 40% operated interest in the Doba oil project in Chad, and a 40% interest in the Chad-Cameroon oil transportation pipeline, to have been negotiated with an economic effective date of 1st Jan 2021 (5 months prior to its 2nd June Announcement), the fundamentals raise some very interesting possibilities:

$52/bbl - Brent on 1/1/2021
$67/bbl - Average Brent price year to date
$83/bbl - Current Brent spot price
Assumptions:
13,400 Bopd of Doba production attributable to SAVE from 1/1/2021
$30m a year of pro rata Revenue from the pipeline attributable to SAVE

The acquisition was expected to take around three months to close (end of August) but has over-run from what appears to be the result of industrial action against Exxon.

In such a scenario:
* The purchase price agreed would likely be based on an asset valuation at circa $52/bbl oil.

* $242 million of accrued revenue will have since been earned, which after adjustment for OPEX would be attributable to SAVE.

* At $83/bbl Brent - revenue will currently be accruing at $1.07m a day.

* If/when the proposed deal completes, the final cash consideration for the assets, could well turn out to be a small fraction of the agreed headline purchase price.

AIMHO/DYOR

Ps In a similarly structured asset deal with Petronas, Jadestone on completion received a net cash consideration of $9m for 6,500 boepd of production, that had a headline purchase price of $9m!

Viable - thanks.

Despite mostly severe sector headwinds since the Sept 2018 London IPO, JSE has achieved a highly respectable 38% CAGR.

To continue this excellent capital growth performance the s/p will need to hit 127p by Sept 22 and 175p by Sept 23. Considering the outstanding fundamentals, assuming oil averages circa $75/bbl, both look very realistic, bordering on modest targets.

The Baltic Dry Index (cost of shipping dry bulk commodities) continue to surge, and is now up an incredible 1,294% (from 1,177% last week) from its pandemic May 2020 low - it's the principle driving force behind the very strong demand for marine fuel oil and, in particular the Australian low sulphur heavy sweet crudes that meet the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Oil Rules without the need to go through a hi-tech refinery.

At today's $82/bbl Brent price, Jadestone's Stag production should be realising circa $92/bbl inclusive of the most recent IMO 2020 price premium to Brent.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$113 / (+34) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$94 / (+30) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$92 / (+34) - Jadestone / STAG - $10.15/bbl latest premium to Brent)
$83 / (+32) - Jadestone / Montara - $1.5/bbl latest premium to Brent
$83 / (+32) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$83 / (+31) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$82 / (+33) - Brent
$78 / (+30) - WTI
$76 / (+32) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average

At today's Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and latest IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising circa $62/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag and Montara production, and circa $65/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

With estimated current total production of circa 19,500 bopd(13,000 bopd /Montara and Stag - 6,500 boepd / PM), Jadestone should be realising circa $450m/yr of gross operating cash flow per year, with the potential to increase to $506m/yr by December on competion of the Skua and Swift workovers, and up to $584m/year on completion of the Maari acquisition.

Current market cap: $564m.

Estimated Annual Revenue at $82/Brent:
$600m - Current
$675m - Plus Skua and Swift Workers
$780m - On Maari Completion (plus a $50m- $75m cheque)

AIMHO/DYOR

The $30+ rise in the price of Brent from the effective date of the PM acquisition, means that the PM assets are now throwing off cash such that every 21 days, they generate cash flow before capex and other adjustments equivalent to the entire $9m purchase price!

Niger - 11 very cheap to drill prospects have more than ten times the potential of the five Niger discoveries made to date combined - @ an average of 33 million bbls a well, these 11 targets will be very high impact.

Niger gives Savannah 10-year extension to oil-rich acreage - Upstream Energy 30th Sept 2021

Niamey move paves way for early oil production system, while Savannah prepares for bigger gas future in Nigeria

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/niger-gives-savannah-10-year-extension-to-oil-rich-acreage/2-1-1075691

Hi highland matt .....thanks for the welcome !
Was laid very low for over a month by covid earlier in the year but thankfully now fully recovered - still long and very strong TXP !!

1 v 2 / 127p v 128p (rest between 129p and 138p)

$190/bbl - 2008 Brent all time high price adjusted for inflation

$147/bbl - 2008 Brent all time high price - inflation unadjusted

$105/bbl - Average Brent price between 2011 and 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$98/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2015 - inflation unadjusted

$79/bbl - Average Brent price from 2008 GFC to 2021 - inflation unadjusted

$79/bbl - Current Brent spot price

$70/bbl - Brent spot price when the Biden Administration were recently screaming for OPEC+ to do something about "high oil prices" !

The Baltic Dry Index (cost of shipping dry bulk commodities) is now up an incredible 1,047% from its pandemic May 2020 low - and is the principle driving force behind the very strong demand for marine fuel oil and, in particular the Australian low sulphur heavy sweet crudes that meet the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Oil Rules without the need to go through a hi-tech refinery.

At today's $78/bbl Brent price, Jadestone's Stag production should be realising circa $88/bbl inclusive of the most recent IMO 2020 price premium to Brent.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$106 / (+27) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$90 / (+26) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$88 / (+30) - Jadestone / STAG - $10.15/bbl latest premium to Brent)
$80 / (+29) - Jadestone / Montara - $1.5/bbl latest premium to Brent
$80 / (+29) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$80 / (+28) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$78 / (+29) - Brent
$75 / (+29) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average
$74 / (+26) - WTI

At today's Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and latest IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising circa $55/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag and Montara production, and circa $62/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

With a current total production of circa 16,500 bopd, Jadestone should be realising circa $350m/yr of gross operating cash flow per year, with the potential to increase to circa $418m /year assuming the Montara H6 Infill well flows at the expected 3,000 bopd.

AIMHO/DYOR

Montara H6 Infill Well - is the first well to be drilled on the field for 10 years. Looking back at the history of the development of the field it was perhaps not altogether surprising that its initial flush production rate was close to 10,000 bopd before being stabilised at around the 3,000 bopd guidance figure.

PTTEP / 2008 - 'The Montara oil and gas field is expected to produce 35,000 bopd of light, low-sulphur crude.......A total of ten wells, nine oil producers and one gas injection well are part of the Montara development project.'

PTTEP planned the development of the Montara project in two phases with an investment of $700m.

Phase one included development of six production wells and one injection well.

Phase two included development of three production wells.

They planned a phased development of the field to enable inclusion and optimisation of wells in phase two, on dynamic reservoir results from phase one.

Due to the lack of availability of drilling rigs the Montara field went into production in late 2013 with four oil-producing wells and a gas re-injection well - stabilised first production was circa 16,500 bopd.

When Jadestone acquired the Montara asset in 2018 - the field was producing circa 7,500 bopd at around 72% field uptime.

Title typo - should read CAGR of 34%

In the three years since the Sept 28th 2018 London IPO - Jadestone has returned a CAGR of 34%.

A remarkable capital growth performance, considering Brent was trading at $84/bbl at the time of the IPO and has since averaged $57/bbl, a fall of over 32%.

'I think they were just talking about the central block wells, which would be exciting for two reasons: '

PD stated in a investor presentation in early 2018 that the TXP management had recently met with the Shell Management of the Central Block Gas Field to discuss TXP's upcoming Ortoire exploration drilling programme - the Shell management expressed an interest in taking some/all of any commercial nat gas discoveries and, freely provided TXP with all their central block well, drilling, testing and production data.

Back in 2014 the Management told the market the company website would regularly be updated with progress photographs as construction of the terminal progressed.

How's that working out for shareholders who has since been diluted into oblivion - well, despite the 'port development' being in its 8th year of 'construction' and laughably having a claimed carrying 'value' of circa £200m, its still only around 25% developed compared to the much higher specification detailed in the 2010 IPO Document, that was put out in a construction tender won by ITD Cementation with an offer of £57m.

Answer: There has not been a single construction photograph posted on the Company website for nearly 4 years!

When Jeremy Warner Allen was appointed Chairman he said "I truly believe in the potential of MPL and have full confidence that we will deliver a profitable and valuable business to all our stake holders. I have no doubt that the future will be exciting for the Company and I look forward to playing my part in growing the business and the platform as a whole."

In 2019, we wrote to him and asked "what have you been doing for shareholders since joining the Board in 2018?"

As we noted, "in common with your predecessor you do not hold any shipping or ports industry professional qualifications or have any first hand senior management experience of either industry.

Consequently, as shareholders (one share each), currently holding the highest professional qualifications the Shipping and Ports industries currently examine for, and with decades of senior management experience running ports and shipping companies, we'd like to offer you some advice in your new role.

We suggest you start by appointing a reputable Marine Civil Engineering Consultancy to carry out a cost analysis of the Karanja Port construction work completed to date and then, after pouring yourself a very large brandy, compare the figure with the circa £160m carrying value that is currently in MPL's accounts for this 'asset'.

After you've finished the brandy bottle and sobered up, request the Marine Civil Engineering Consultants to then conduct a forensic audit (and give a professional opinion) on every payment over £10k made to contractors since 2012 - while they're doing that, we suggest you order yourself a case of brandy for when you read their report."

To date we are yet to receive a reply ..... the rest as they say is history, with IPO investors now 99.8% down and most subsequent placing investors down by very similar amounts for what is a straightforward low spec real estate development.

By way of comparison ITD Cementation built the World Class, much larger and vastly more complex Mumbai Terminal 4 Container Port ....located just 5km away..... in just TWO years. It went in to operation under budget and ahead of time.

hTTps://www.joc.com/sites/default/files/field_feature_image/bharat-mumbai-container-terminals-bmct-jnpt-credit-indian-ministry-shipping-fit.jpg

AIOHO/

Hunch Ventures are either clueless, extremely poorly researched fools or, the situation is as PJ1 suggested .......part of an alleged fraud, which has seen over £200m of shareholders funds and debt mostly disappear seemingly like morning mist!

hTTps://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/hunch-ventures-looks-to-build-on-its-ports-investment-3799481.html

AIOHO/DYOR

ps ...when Hunch were considering taking circa 22% of the company, the management got very perturbed when I suggested we were considering sending our research file to Karanpal Singh, the Founder.

Following the Ministerial decree facilitating the development and commercialisation of Lemang's Akatara gas its worth re-reading the Overview of the Lemang Acquisition - Another excellent quality asset with a completely flexible production development timetable secured at Jadestone's offer price from a highly distressed seller needing short term cash.

Acquisition of Operated 90% Interest in Lemang PSC

hTTps://www.jadestone-energy.com/acquisition-of-operated-90-interest-in-lemang-psc/

At the time management stressed no equity raise to pay for this - $60m debt and $30m cash to pay for the field development over 2 years.

'Spangle' noted from the presentation at the time: 'Note that gas volumes shown are based on Gas Down To (GDT) measurements from existing logs. The gas water contact has not been intersected, therefore there is an as-yet undetermined volume upside that is not captured by the mean figure. A full P10-P50-P90 figure will be available by FID'

Some of my notes from the presentation webinar at the time of the announcement of the acquisition:

* PSC - No Decommissioning overhang

* Incremental Value beyond the base case is all accretive to assumptions

* Gas Sales: 80-90% Take or Pay Provision / Fixed Prices over life of field contract

* $126 million prior cost pools

* 90% Interest In Lemang PSC - $12m was Jadestone's Offer Price - the Distressed seller who needed cash in hand because of the low oil price had wanted considerably more for the asset 12 months ago(circa $50-75m from my research on the previous owners Sugih Energy ), but then experienced financial and operational challenges related to the collapse in the POO, that necessitated the raising of cash.(A 25% stake in this asset was sold for $130m in 2015)

* FID to First Gas: 24 months

* Situated in a region with one of the highest O&G success rates in the world; and adjacent to the Jabung block, which produces 53,000 boepd.

Southwest Vietnam Nat Gas Assets - Nam Du (Block 46/07) and U Minh (Block 51) gas fields

* 171bcf of 2C resources with a further circa 31bcf in Nam Du South fault block and resource upside

* Provides domestic gas to existing Ca Mau industrial complex, supporting economic growth in Southern Vietnam as existing gas supply declines

* Steady predictable cash flow tied to a fixed gas price, free from oil price volatility

* Provides a hub to potentially develop other nearby discoveries

With LNG spot prices back to over $14 mmcf - some 56% above the $9 mmcf long term average price for the supply of LNG into SE Asia - the timing is looking attractive to finalise a gas supply contract with the Vietnam Energy Ministry .......one that will very comfortably support an FID to progress these two gas fields into production.

I understand Vietnam Nat Gas Supply Contracts are similar to SE Asian LNG supply contracts - a fixed price for the life of the contract with annual inflation adjustments.

At current $75 Brent - the 5 year Nam Du (Block 46/07) and U Minh plateau production of 80,000 mmcf per day at a sales price of $9 mmcf would generate the same gross revenue as 9,714 bopd of Brent.

At an estimated OPEX of less than $3.0 mmcf($15/bbl), it could potentially generate operating cash flow of circa $200m a year, for the duration of the 5-6 years of forecast plateaux production.

With a Vietnam Office now up and running, I'm expecting some news on the Southwest Vietnam gas field assets during H2/2021.

AIMHO/DYOR

Share-price performance since Jadestone Energy listed in London on 28th September 2018.

+423% - Touchstone Energy
+124% - Jadestone Energy
+79% - Serica Energy
+29% - Petrotal

-9% - Brent Price Today
-24% - Savannah Energy
-31% - Enquest
-33% - Exxon
-36% - Brent Ave Price
-45% - Shell
-51% - BP
-54% - Cairn Energy
-60% - US Oil Fund ETF(USO)
-83% - Tullow Energy
-86% - I3 Energy
-89% - Premier Oil

Brent
$82.72 - 28th Sept 2018
$75.50 - Today
$53.00 - Average since Sept 2018

By any objective analysis, since its September 2018 London IPO listing, the s/p performance of Jadestone Energy relative to the wider O&G market and Brent has been outstanding.

From a 'fundamentals' viewpoint the company is positioned extremely well to continue that outperformance in H2/2021 and beyond, particularly if Brent were to average around today's $75bbl

AIMHO/DYOR