The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
'Possibly MT and his many IDs' Have only ever had one ID ..... which I also use on Ad*fb!
As with MPL I still hold one share - in order to continue exposing the management for what they are - untrustworthy charlatans, who shouldn't be anywhere near the board of a quoted company, never mind masquerading as its executive chairman!
I have no intention of re-investing here, that cash is in a new home with management I can trust and is already very close in terms of an ARS valuation, to the highly questionable 11p valuation target issued yesterday by Optiva, another investment house with a long history of being a shameless Manini mouthpiece.
AIMHO/DYOR
SB - your desperation is palpable ..... Manini has already given you a good haircut under lockdown - by the way your acting AE are going to finish off the job by completely scalping you !
Considering the level of Government corruption in Indonesia, I would take the behaviour of the regional Beutong community and their success at revoking the Beutong operating license as a much more reliable guide/barometer as to the likely future prospects for developing a mining operation in Beutong's pristine equatorial forest environment.
For god's sake do some research! .....events have overtaken Beutong and any deep potential it may have - the operating license has been revoked and the chances of that changing in the future is slim to zero!
Mike - Ref Beutong - only became aware of it in mid December ..... probably because it was posted in an Indonesian Language journal and required transition, and only mentioned PT-EMM in the headline - have not seen it posted anywhere in an English language journal.
Good advice from 'Bernardshaw' an industry professional who knows Manini - from the CEO.CA website:
25th Jan - 'We can't move forward while Tony considers this disgraceful result to be a ....."hickup." I have lost confidence in him and I don't want him to manage my shareholding.
Today, after the bombshell news that the shysters at AE are trying to remove the board and install their own team.
'If loose hands sell to AE and they reach majority we're all done for.'
The warning signals about these alleged industrial scale energy trader fraudsters were there for all who wanted to see.
AIMHO/DYOR
Shadow - if that is the grand sum of your research - I'd stick to national lottery scratch cards as equity investment is clearly not suited to people liken you!You seem to have forgotten that the s/p is down nearly 70% since I started posting my research - which poorly researched posters like you openly mocked and ridiculed. Grow up and take responsibility for your investment mistakes.
Savannah Energy
The Right Company:
Two high growth low operating cost businesses in an O&G sector surging off 20 year lows in the early years of a new commodity market cycle.
In the Right Place:
Nigeria is Africa's largest economy and has a very fast growing energy hungry population of 206 million and Africa's largest Port and Industrial City under development on Savannah's doorstep. Niger's Agadem Rift Basin is one of Africa's most prolific O&G basins, and where Savannah has a 100% drilling success record and, CNPC an 83% record with over 1 billion bbls proved on their acreage.
At The Right Time:
A global energy transition to nat gas is under way. Nigeria’s natural gas reserves total 193 Tcf, the ninth largest in the world and over 306 times its annual consumption, which is one of the lowest per capita in the world at just 3.2 Mcf - some 25 times lower than the USA.
Following the recent introduction of a government 'Dash for Gas' initiative to provide the energy to drive the industrialisation of the economy, modernisation of its cities and development of its national road and rail transport infrastructure, domestic demand for natural gas is forecast to rise five fold from current levels of 1.5 Bcf/d to 7.5 Bcf/d by 2027.
Niger is in the early stages of developing one of Africa's largest and most prolific onshore O&G basins.
With the Right Product:
An ultra high margin, high growth potential Nat Gas business that is a moat with a multi $billion entry price, surrounded by a 20ft high concrete wall manned with machine gun posts courtesy of having more than 94% of its $4.3bn contractually guaranteed revenue streams underwritten by the World Bank for the duration of their average 17 year contract life. Together with a 100% Niger drilling success record on a Agadem Rift Basin license with a risked recoverable 2.69 billion - 3.86 billion bbls.
The macro( early years of a new long term commodity market cycle recovery stage and the global energy market's long term transition to nat gas) and company specific fundamentals detailed above, point to a potential 10-15 bagger over a 3 year investment outlook.
And remember, that would only be a 3-4 bagger for the blue chip institutional investors with an average weighted price from the placings of 39.2p. They saw enough upside potential at that average price to pump over £250m into Savannah Energy.
The brutal 2020 oil sector Covid-19 sell off gave PI's the opportunity to build a position at up to an 85% discount to the smart money.....just as the 2016 oil market sell off did to TXP....where the shares went from over 100p to 7.25p and saw PI's able to build the CEO's 1 million holding or more, that he bought at circa £1 a share, for just circa £80k, and a number did. Some three years later a 1 million holding is worth a cool £1.7m, with many brokers forecasts suggesting a conservative 2-3 times further upside over the next 24 months.
AIMHO/DYOR
Peter Bird - Integrity?
Bird presided over a 94% collapse of the s/p during his tenure as CEO, largely the result of failing to hit a single self set business development timeline target in three years, which included delivering the BKM BFS over a year late.
He followed that disastrous failure by announcing a 20 point BKM Value Enhancement Plan, that some 20 months later the owners and market is still yet to receive a single update !
Like Manini, Bird had a hugely overinflated opinion of his own self importance and value to ARS and treated shareholders with breathtaking contempt in terms of his running of the company and communication.
Bird's abysmal performance as CEO for which he was extremely well paid, should have seen him leave much earlier because he'd made his own position completely untenable, through a mixture of hubris, arrogance and a perfect track record of overpromising and underdelivering !
About 18 months ago I suggested both Bird and Manini should leave ARS and go on the road as a Laurel and Hardy Tribute act ........as they could go on a sell out tour with the material they've given out to shareholders over the years ! Seen nothing since two change that view........ the PTLOSE debacle is yet another in a very long list of farcical screw ups.
AIMHO/DYOR
Maari Acquisition - Purchase Price $50 million
In a post made in Nov 2020, from the effective acquisition date of 1/1/2019, I estimated the operating cash flow before tax for the two year period 2019-2020 net to Jadestone, as $88.15 million using a conservative combination of actual and estimated production data and opex, and spot Brent.
Pleased to report that with actual data for production, opex and oil sales for the period now available from Maari Shareholder Horizon Energy the gross operating cash flow before tax is likely to be circa $95.3m.
2019
4,511 bopd - Average Maari Production Net to Jadestone
$28.2/bbl - Average OPEX
$70.8/bbl - Average Oil Sales Price
$70.3m - Net cash flow to Jadestone
2020
3,420 bopd - Average Maari Production Net to Jadestone
$22.2/bbl - Average OPEX
$42.0/bbl - Average Oil Sales Price
$25.0m - Net cash flow to Jadestone
2021 - Current Production and OPEX Data and estimated Cash flow
3,657 bopd - Average Maari Production Net to Jadestone
$16.5/bbl - Average OPEX
$55.5/bbl - Current Brent Price
$2.0/bbl - Maari IMO 2020 Premium to Brent
$41/bbl - Net Cash Flow to Jadestone
$4.64m - Average Monthly Cash Flow
$55.7m - Average Annual cash Flow
By the end of Jan 2021 - the Maari Field may have generated circa $100m of operating cash flow before tax net to Jadestone ..... and by the end of Q1/2021.... it could reach $110m at $55 Brent.
Strongly suggests on completion during Q1/2021 Jadestone may well pick up the Maari asset with its current circa $55.7m a year of operating cash flow(@ $55 Brent) for free along with a very decent cheque.
AIMHO/DYOR
Data Source: Maari Field Shareholder - Horizon Energy
Enough is enough.
If there were any serious interest a PTWIN/AE IPO would and should have been at the bottom of the list of preferences.
That the clueless Manini spent the best part of 12 months and huge shareholder cost, including giving 20% of the company away for peanuts, to pursue a 'deal' with alleged fraudsters speaks volumes.
Manini's position is completely untenable following this latest debacle, which has reduced the Company, Board and shareholders to a laughing stock.
An equity raise is now inevitable and likely to be very painful for long suffering shareholders who deserve far better from a management they have loyally supported.
As for Manini's 'lots of new interest' bluster ...... you're spot on ....new investors should take that comment with a sack of salt as the story has been heard many times before and all its produced is the PTWIN scam!
As the management have repeatedly demonstrated they're incompetent and cannot be trusted to look after the owners best interests, the company should be put up for sale, lock stock and barrel - to enable shareholders to move on.
I learned the hard way when I first stated investing that its better to invest in outstanding management with modest assets than a poor/self serving/incompetent management with world class assets.
The latter can keep living in extreme luxury at shareholders expense for a very long time by routinely crowing about the quality and 'interest' being shown in the assets, as they continually dilute their shareholders into oblivion through incompetence in order to keep the lights on ...... the sharp eyed will note the shares in circulation has nearly doubled, with yet another highly dilutive placing likely soon, and yet the s/p is barely much above where it was 4 years ago.
Dilution is no hindrance to capital growth when outstanding management are at the helm ....... TXP shareholders have seen their shareholdings diluted by 50% over the last 3.5 years, yet the cash raised was used extremely well by the management to deliver more than 20 fold capital growth!
AIMHO/DYOR
Manini has now made the company accountable having published the major shareholders as of 25th January after supposedly verifying the information!How could Manini have verified the information?......AE are unlikely to tell him what the current status of their shareholding is? And only a fool would believe a word they said even if they did; "Yes, of course we still hold them Mr Minini".If they have sold they're hardly likely to issue a notification to the market either, certainly until the heat has lowered.Another possibility, is that AE may of lent their shareholding out to a 'sister' company who used them to short ARS, and then bought them back at circa 2.5p to take a 3p profit(£10m) enabling AE to be a completely 'innocent' party .......since they would still own the shares.My business experience of dealing with shysters/criminals is to never underestimate their resourcefulness, ingenuity and propensity for greed.Bill Browder of Hermitage Asset Management used to do a "Stealing Analysis' on his Russian market investments to see where the cash flow and assets were going and then give the FT/Washington Post the details to publish .......which would bring action from the Russian state that inevitably led to a massive share price rise.......in the case of Gazprom he found and published evidence showing that the 9 most senior executives in the company had stolen O&G assets from Gazprom the size of Exxon or Kuwait! AIMHO/DYOR
SB .....whatever the shady, secretive characters behind PTWIN/AE/Sugih have been doing, as I previously pointed out, they're not the type of people ARS should be doing highly complex IPO deals with, where the KSK asset is given a lofty valuation which forms the largest element by far of the value of its $500m valuation.
I hold one share and will review the situation AFTER the inevitable cash raise........which in my experience is likely to be at a price well below the current price. As suggested early last week, would expect the s/p to trade in the 2-2.5p area until the market is given guidance by the management of their intentions in this respect.......assuming, as is likely, they don't have another suitor waiting in the wings.
40% of Peru's oil industry is uneconomic at $40 oil ....... PTAL is cash flow positive at around $25 Brent.
As production increases during 2021 that will fall towards $20/bbl. 95% of Peru's oil industry and most of the global oil industry would be bust, at a level PTAL is still cash flow positive!
The investigation of the £100m Globo AIM fraud uncovered that the CEO was constantly selling down his massive position for weeks until the final curtain was brought down on the huge fraud he was carrying out ...... and he most certainly didn't issue any changes to his position!
Lol - I would not trust the stock information on the ARS website ........ the assumption is that AE still hold 19.99% because they have not yet notified the authorities of any change ....... have a wild guess......would you really expect a fraudster to go to the trouble of alerting the regulator to a change of holding while carrying out the scam?
Interesting to note that the proposed KSK 'deal' was eventually signed very shortly after Jadestone Energy made payment of the $12m for the completion of the acquisition of the Lemang PSC - triggering a circa $3.7m payment to the shysters at AE/Sugih Energy.
Enough to cover the initial $2.5m payment should it be necessary to effect the 6 bagger scam of selling down their 20% holding and taking out a tsunami of meaty shorts before lighting the touch-paper to create a 60% s/p drop.
In the event, such was Manini's boundless generosity at shareholders expense to the alleged fraudsters, they were able to buy enough time to effect the alleged scam, they were even able to avoid making the initial $2.5m payment.
If so, one if the best examples of the long con I've seen in years.
AIMHO/DYOR
A shameless display of breathtaking hypocrisy.
Nauseatingly disingenuous and with a total lack of humility .........I don't feel vindication but anger at extremely rude, poorly researched management cheerleaders like you who not only refused to accept any other posted views but, insulted, mocked and ridiculed those who had the temerity to make them.
It was the height of arrogance to never remotely accept the possibility you may be wrong, even when my research strongly suggested something much different to the poorly researched, self serving blinkered narrative you and others continued to shamelessly hawk on these BB's.
The best way to get good at equity investing is to lose money.....as there is nothing better than losing money for concentrating the mind, sharpening the judgement and improving the research.
Hopefully, this highly embarrassing experience for you will have provided valuable insight and proved a useful lesson in humility.
AIMHO/DYOR
The reason why the Swedish teen-age snowflake never lectures the emerging Nations on climate change and reducing fossil fuels is because her advisors know exactly the response she would get, which I suspect would be far from complementary!
"So, the children of the Nations of the World that have used fossil fuels for over 50 years at a rate between 25 to 50 times greater consumption per capita than us, in order to develop their economies and living standards to a level that 99% of our population can only dream of, want us to start reducing our fossil fuel usage just as our average consumption per capita finally reaches one tenth of the West?" Hmmmmmm.
AIMHO/DYOR
It is a remarkable achievement of mankind, to have developed sufficient energy sources thanks to the industrial revolution, that we have arrived at a point in history, roughly 170 years later, where people imagine the unreliable systems they struggled with prior to 1850 will be the answer now.
History not to mention physics and engineering is clearly a mystery to such people. Including Mr Looney who now heads up BP - a very poor choice to lead such a huge company - as a left leaning woke he would have been the establishment's ideal candidate to be DG at the BBC.
As in so many other areas of life, California gives us a peek into the future. Regular statewide power blackouts in the world's sixth largest economy. And still they charge ahead into the 'future'.
Apart from the UK, and parts of Europe and the USA, much of the rest of the world is not following this child like delusion that we're facing runaway climate change. Most Governments, especially those of emerging Nations that have had their finances trashed by Covid, will want cheap and reliable energy, and will be in no position to grant the huge renewable subsidies required for them to be remotely competitive.
As a consequence, the 'carbon runoff' in the emerging nations that contain nearly 90% of the world's population, and which has bolted on a population increase equivalent to the entire population of the West in less than 15 years, is still majoring on coal to produce electricity, never mind going "green" by switching to nat gas and oil.
It took most of the West 50 years to produce more electricity from gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and renewables combined compared to coal (Germany still produces 25% from coal and Poland 80%).
Despite China annually importing more oil than the entire annual production of Saudi Arabia and the North and Norwegian Sea combined, and being the world's second largest LNG importer, it has per capita oil and gas consumption around one eighth and one tenth respectively of the West according to latest data provided by BP, and China still generates 60% of its electricity from coal( forecast to only drop to a third by 2050) - and China is LEADING most of the emerging Nations in the switch to gas and oil, and to a much lesser extent renewable energy.
The other 3.4 billion of the 4.8 billion population of China, SE Asia and India currently has a per capita oil and gas consumption of between 10 and 15 times lower than the West.
Anyone predicting the imminent demise of global oil and gas consumption should travel across the emerging Nations of the World to disabuse themselves of that ridiculous notion, mostly pedalled by grandstanding, self serving western politicians disingenuously acting to embellish their "green credentials'.
'Wouldn't surprise me if Mount Tedious IS the angry geologist. ROFLMFAO!'
You're in the wrong job, you could go on tour with material like that!
Not guilty you honour ....... I'm afraid a Grade A 'O' Level in Geology from 45 years ago, is way short of the geological and mining industry education and professional training required to write analysis like the AG!