Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Southwest Vietnam Nat Gas Assets - Nam Du (Block 46/07) and U Minh (Block 51) gas fields
* 171bcf of 2C resources with a further circa 31bcf in Nam Du South fault block and resource upside
* Provides domestic gas to existing Ca Mau industrial complex, supporting economic growth in Southern Vietnam as existing gas supply declines
* Steady predictable cash flow tied to a fixed gas price, free from oil price volatility
* Provides a hub to potentially develop other nearby discoveries
With LNG spot prices back to over $14 mmcf - some 56% above the $9 mmcf long term average price for the supply of LNG into SE Asia - the timing is looking attractive to finalise a gas supply contract with the Vietnam Energy Ministry .......one that will very comfortably support an FID to progress these two gas fields into production.
I understand Vietnam Nat Gas Supply Contracts are similar to SE Asian LNG supply contracts - a fixed price for the life of the contract with annual inflation adjustments.
At current $75 Brent - the 5 year Nam Du (Block 46/07) and U Minh plateau production of 80,000 mmcf per day at a sales price of $9 mmcf would generate the same gross revenue as 9,714 bopd of Brent.
At an estimated OPEX of less than $3.0 mmcf($15/bbl), it could potentially generate operating cash flow of circa $200m a year, for the duration of the 5-6 years of forecast plateaux production.
With a Vietnam Office now up and running, I'm expecting some news on the Southwest Vietnam gas field assets during H2/2021.
AIMHO/DYOR
Share-price performance since Jadestone Energy listed in London on 28th September 2018.
+423% - Touchstone Energy
+124% - Jadestone Energy
+79% - Serica Energy
+29% - Petrotal
-9% - Brent Price Today
-24% - Savannah Energy
-31% - Enquest
-33% - Exxon
-36% - Brent Ave Price
-45% - Shell
-51% - BP
-54% - Cairn Energy
-60% - US Oil Fund ETF(USO)
-83% - Tullow Energy
-86% - I3 Energy
-89% - Premier Oil
Brent
$82.72 - 28th Sept 2018
$75.50 - Today
$53.00 - Average since Sept 2018
By any objective analysis, since its September 2018 London IPO listing, the s/p performance of Jadestone Energy relative to the wider O&G market and Brent has been outstanding.
From a 'fundamentals' viewpoint the company is positioned extremely well to continue that outperformance in H2/2021 and beyond, particularly if Brent were to average around today's $75bbl
AIMHO/DYOR
Maari Oil Field Acquisition - Jadestone (69%) - Completion date target: End Aug 2021
Maari Field FPSO: Roroa - Commercial History
2006 - Conversion to FPSO carried out at Jurong Shipyard - Singapore (cost of hull and conversion similar to sister ship Montara Venture at circa $107m).
2009 - Went into commercial operation on the Maari Field under a 10 year fixed price charter rate contract (with annual uplifts), containing an option to buy after 4 years.
2012/3 - Maari Field Consortium bought FPSO from the owner (price not disclosed - would estimate $85m-$100m)
2013 - FPSO underwent a US$40m upgrade programme of work in Nelson Shipyard NZ - this included the upgrade of the processing equipment and the installation of a new heavy duty mooring swivel.
During this time construction activities at the Maari field continued in preparation for the tie-in of new wells. This included the upgrade of the wellhead platform and the replacement of several of Roroa's anchor mooring lines.
2016 - Carried out a further US$30 million upgrade on Roroa - including the upgrade of all eight mooring lines to a higher strength specification, and chain attachments and mooring line components, to 'future-proof' the in-field operation of the FPSO. "The replacement will mean that no major mooring works will be required for the next 10 years."
Considering the likely price paid by the Maari Consortium for FPSO Roroa and the cost of improvements since carried out to the vessel - two fellow shipping industry professionals and myself believe OMV's 69% ownership of the FPSO Roroa currently has a market value in excess of the $50m being paid by Jadestone Energy to purchase the Maari Field INCLUSIVE of the FPSO Roroa.
Additionally, by the expected deal completion date - Jadestone expects, as a result of being in receipt of the cash flow generated since the effective deal date of 1/1/2019, to be in a position where they will have no payment to make to OMV for the asset, and will very likely get a meaty cheque on top for OMV's 69% shareholding of the Maari Field.....which includes ownership of the significantly upgraded and highly valuable FPSO Roroa.
AIOHO/DYOR
Worth re-reading the Overview of the Lemang Acquisition - Another excellent quality asset with a completely flexible production development timetable secured at Jadestone's offer price from a highly distressed seller needing short term cash.
Acquisition of Operated 90% Interest in Lemang PSC
hTTps://www.jadestone-energy.com/acquisition-of-operated-90-interest-in-lemang-psc/
At the time management stressed no equity raise to pay for this - $60m debt and $30m cash to pay for the field development over 2 years.
'Spangle' noted from the presentation at the time: 'Note that gas volumes shown are based on Gas Down To (GDT) measurements from existing logs. The gas water contact has not been intersected, therefore there is an as-yet undetermined volume upside that is not captured by the mean figure. A full P10-P50-P90 figure will be available by FID'
Some of my notes from the presentation webinar at the time of the announcement of the acquisition:
* PSC - No Decommissioning overhang
* Incremental Value beyond the base case is all accretive to assumptions
* Gas Sales: 80-90% Take or Pay Provision / Fixed Prices over life of field contract
* $126 million prior cost pools
* 90% Interest In Lemang PSC - $12m was Jadestone's Offer Price - the Distressed seller who needed cash in hand because of the low oil price had wanted considerably more for the asset 12 months ago(circa $50-75m from my research on the previous owners Sugih Energy ), but then experienced financial and operational challenges related to the collapse in the POO, that necessitated the raising of cash.(A 25% stake in this asset was sold for $130m in 2015)
* FID to First Gas: 24 months
* Situated in a region with one of the highest O&G success rates in the world; and adjacent to the Jabung block, which produces 53,000 boepd.
Just $1.7m of cash left at the end of May 2021 - totally outrageous!
They laughably claim to have blown through close to $200m (including debt), and all shareholders have got to show for it is a less than half complete, ultra shallow draft 400metre barge handing jetty without any weather protection from the annual 6 month monsoon, together with around 30 acres of part developed storage hardstanding and another 60 acres of yet to be developed reclaimed land!
Our estimate of its current market value is $25m.
AIOHO/DYOR
Some thoughts:
Impact on operating cash flow of the increase in average price of Brent in 2021 over 2020 - assuming mid guidance 2021 production of 12,500 bopd, average OPEX of $27.5/bbl and WITHOUT any IMO 2020 Premium to Brent.
$41 - 2020 Average Brent Price
$65 - 2021 Average Brent Price
$75 - Current Spot Brent Price
+$110m - Forecast increase in Operating Cashflow before changes in w/c in 2021 over 2020 - assuming oil averages $65 in H2/2021.
Should Brent average the current $75 spot price in H2/2021, then the forecast INCREASE in Operating Cashflow in 2021 over 2020 would rise from $110m to $132m.
Maari Operating Cashflow since 1/1/2019 of $135m attributable to JSE:
Assuming (Source: Horizon Oil Actual Data to end of Q1/2021)
3.6m bbls - Est Gross Production
$225m - Est Gross Revenue
$18.5/bbl - Est OPEX/bbl
Were Brent to average the current spot of $75/bbl during H2/2021, estimated Maari Operating Cash flow since 1/1/2019 would increase to circa $172m by year end - less very low Capex and Interest, and modest taxes - for an asset with a purchase price of $50m, inclusive of an FPSO with an estimated current market value of circa $50m.
Peninsula Malaysia - Estimated Operating cash-flow since 1/1/2021(before changes in working capital), of $51.5m attributable to JSE:
Assuming
6,000 bopd - mostly sold at a premium to Brent
$18/bbl - actual current OPEX/bbl
Were Brent to average the current spot of $75/bbl in H2/2021, estimated Peninsula Operating Cash flow since 1/1/2021 would increase to circa $114m by year end before changes in working capital - for an asset with a purchase price of $9m, plus a $3m contingency for Brent averaging over $65/bbl.
2022 Production and Cash Flow
Assuming completion of the proposed H2/2021 capital works programme and the Maari and Peninsula acquisitions:
H6 well (2,000 bopd net)
Skua 10 & 11 Workovers (1,500 bopd net)
*****ula Malay Acquisition (6000 bopd net)
Maari Acquisition (4000 bopd net)
JSE could enter 2022 with estimated production of circa 22,500 bopd, OPEX below $20/bbl, Cash around $155m and No Debt.
Should Brent average $70/bbl in 2022 - this production excluding the IMO 2020 Premium, could potentially generate circa $410m of operating cash flow before changes in working capital.
AIMHO/DYOR
Tils - strewth, where do I start? .......carrying out some decent research worthy of the name BEFORE posting can often help to prevent making yourself look extremely foolish.
In the 2010 £73m IPO was in fact in 2010 - the admission documentation stated the Port Infrastructure would have a 1,000m quay and 200 acres of storage hardstanding.
After 11 years and spending more than three times the winning tender bid to develop the port they have reclaimed just 90 acres of the 200 acres from the foreshore and developed just 30 acres into hardstanding for storage! And constructed a lightweight 400m metre jetty without monsoon season protection instead of the 1,000m all weather quay detailed in the admission document.
ITD Cementation won the tender to build the Port to the specification contained in the admission documentation - their winning offer was £57m.
Some 11 years later it is staggering that the IPO investors are still to hold the Company to account for a massive breach of their IPO Admission Documentation and responsibilities - subsequently repeated in two Shareholders Circulars for Placings and Open Offers totalling another £75m, which many of the original IPO II's also cluelessly supported despite having the benefit of advice from industry professionals to avoid like the plague!
They have since lost over 99% of their original investment and over 95% of their subsequent placing investment to date.
AIMHO/DYOR
For £2.33m of revenue per year MPL is to hand over 50% of their berth quay capacity and 33% of the port storage hardstanding developed to date to a stevedoring company handling ultra low value and revenue generating bulk cargoes!
Circa £165m - Cost of port development to date
Circa £90m - Bank Debt Outstanding (Capital and Interest)
No Port Operator in their right mind would sign a contract handing over such a large part of the port's operating infrastructure for effectively peanuts!
This smacks of complete desperation - a vain attempt to keep the plates spinning and hefty salaries and expenses maintained for as long as possible from the cash remaining from the last placing - little of which, as with the IPO and other placing funds, has been used for the purpose detailed in the Placing documentation.
AIMHO/DYOR
In January 2020 the shipping industry's move to limit the sulphur content of fuel oil to 0.5%, saw the development trigger a huge demand for Exxon's Doba heavy sweet crude, as a result of its incredibly low 0.07% sulphur content. Doba crude oil has since changed hands at a premium to Brent.
West African oil hits sweet spot as shipping upgrades to cleaner fuel
hTTps://www.reuters.com/article/uk-shipping-imo-idUKKCN1VC1M9
hTTps://corporate.exxonmobil.com/Crude-oils/Crude-trading/Doba-Blend
Nigeria, Africa's largest crude oil and nat gas producer and exporter, is set to start close to a quarter of Africa's new O&G projects scheduled by 2025.
Nigeria Set To Start-up 100 Oil & Gas Projects By 2025 - Oiprice.com
'As many as 100 oil and gas projects are set to start in Nigeria by 2025, accounting for 23 percent of all projects starts in the industry in Africa within the next five years, data and analytics company GlobalData said in a new report.
Petrochemical projects will hold the highest share of new startup projects in Nigeria through 2025, with 28 projects, followed by 25 expected upstream oil and gas projects, 24 refinery projects, and 23 midstream projects, according to GlobalData estimates.
In the upstream, some of the notable projects include the deepwater Bonga North oilfield and the onshore conventional gas Okpokunou Cluster Development. Bonga North is currently in its Front End Engineering Design (FEED) stage and is expected to start operations by 2025. Cluster Development is at a feasibility stage and is expected to begin operations by 2024, GlobalData said.
Projects in Nigeria's refining sector will also be closely watched as the biggest African economy is eager to reduce its reliance on fuel imports, revamp its old refineries, and build new ones.
The 650,000 barrel per day Lagos I refinery is a key project expected to start operations in 2022 and become the largest oil refinery in Africa.
"Nigeria is betting on several refinery and petrochemicals projects to meet its growing domestic demand and reduce its reliance on imports. The projects also have potential to transform Nigeria as an exporter of refined products to neighboring countries," Teja Pappoppula, Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said.
Nigeria, Africa's largest crude oil producer and exporter, expects to end its crude-for-fuel swap deals by 2023 when its refining capacity is set to increase with state refineries revamped and a new refinery built, Mele Kyari, Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), said in October last year. Nigerian refineries, which are in need of refurbishment, will be fully revamped and running by 2023, he added.
Back in October, Kyari said that "The outlook for Nigeria's downstream sector looks bright with attractive market conditions, large market, significant crude distillation capacity additions from various refinery projects, improvements of the distribution network & the use of natural gas." '
Marine Fuel Oil pricing - VLSFO pricing has risen by $2/bbl over the last fortnight ......Brent is up by $1/bbl.....while the IMO 2020 premium to dated Brent for Australian Heavy Sweet crude has strengthened by $2/bbl to $13/bbl.
Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)
$93 / (+18) - MGO - APAC Average
$81 / (+20) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$76 / (+20) - Jadestone / STAG - (est $13/bbl / 21% Premium to Brent)
$68 / (+17) - Jadestone / Montara - ($5.0/bbl / 8% Premium to Brent)
$65 / (+16) - Maari ($2.0/bbl / 3% Premium to Brent)
$63 / (+15) - Brent
$59 / (+13) - HSFO - APAC Average
$59 / (+13) - WTI
$5 - VLSFO/STAG Spread
$18 - VLSFO/Brent Spread
$22 - VLSFO/HSFO Spread
At the current Brent price, 2021 group guidance mid range production and average OPEX of $27.50/bbl, this suggests the potential for group 2021 operating cash flow of circa $230m+.
With production being ramped up during H2/2021, and a year end production exit rate of perhaps 17-18,000 bopd(assuming Maari completes as expected), together with a "high $teen/bbl OPEX during Q4/2021"; this could generate a further highly material step change increase in cash generation going into 2022.
In addition, the CEO has strongly hinted the next acquisition is very likely to be a producing asset ....so, JSE could well be a 20,000+ bopd producer entering 2022 with sub $20/bbl OPEX. Such a production growth scenario could potentially generate cash flow of circa $370m per annum at today's $63 Brent(plus IMO 2020 Premiums), circa $480 million at $80 Brent and circa $600m at $100 Brent.
AIMHO/DYOR
In phase two, the deal will target the remaining network bottlenecks to enable full use of existing generation and distribution capacities, bringing the system’s capacity to 11GW, while developing the system up to 25GW by 2025 in the longer term, third phase.
Energy Minister Sale Mamman while receiving the Egyptian Ambassador to Nigeria, disclosed that Egypt had successfully rehabilitated and restored its power sector through its collaboration with Siemens, saying that there was a need to closely look at this success story.
“The President had reasoned that obtaining more information from Egypt will enable our country to maximise our agreement with Siemens towards the total overhaul of our power grid and distribution systems,”.
It is expected that the deal would ensure 105 substations are upgraded, 70 new substations built, 35 power transformers manufactured and installed, 3,765 distribution transformers installed and 5,109km distribution lines built.
Sale Mamman, said his ministry had been directed by the President to closely collaborate with Egypt on the effective implementation of the Siemens deal.
Mamman said Egypt had successfully rehabilitated and restored its power sector through its collaboration with Siemens and that Nigeria would completely overhaul its grid through a similar deal with the German firm.
In 2018, Siemens and Orascom Construction delivered a 14.4 GW power generation project in under 2.5 years in Egypt.
Source: Guardian Business and Nairametrics
Savannah Energy - Nigeria
In the right sector, with the right cheap clean energy product, at the right time!
Nigeria is set to collaborate with Siemens and Egypt towards a total overhaul of its power grid and distribution systems - February 2021
The Nigerian Federal Government last week signed a contract with Siemens Energy for the pre-engineering phase of the Presidential Power Initiative through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), FGN Power Company.
The Presidential Power initiative seeks to improve power generation in the country. Notably, the pre-engineering phase will include engineering design works, specifications for onshore installation, commissioning works for the transmission and distribution systems, network development studies, power simulation, training, and support services.
The federal government has signed a power deal with Siemens to deliver 25GW by the end of 2025 and to fix the archaic transmission and distribution infrastructure in the sector.
Furthermore, milestones were set to ensure the provision of 7GW and 11GW of reliable power supply by 2021 and 2023 respectively.
Currently, Nigeria has a power generating capacity of about 13GW with a less than 50% utilisation capacity at a peak power generation of 5.2GW.
The Nigerian power sector has been bedevilled by a number of constraints since the 2013 privatisation, such as low network coverage and decrepit transmission facilities, which have continued to undermine performance.
The widening deficiency in the on-grid supply of power has forced consumers into costly off-grid alternatives, which account for 52% of electricity consumption, based on IMF estimates.
According to the World Bank, about 80 million people still lack access to grid electricity, making Nigeria the country with the largest access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa. The institution further puts the national electrification rate at 55%, with the rural electrification rate at just 39%.
In three phases, the deal is expected to focus on essential and quick-win measures to increase the system’s operational capacity to 7GW and to significantly reduce Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses.
Siemens is expected to provide general technical training on core competency areas as well as training for employees of Nigeria’s 11 electricity distribution companies, the TCN, and regulators, on all the equipment and software being provided by Siemens.
According to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), demands for natural gas by the country’s domestic market which currently comprise mostly of power and industries, will rise from 1.5 billion standard feet per day (bscfd) to 7.4bscfd in 2027.
To plug this huge rise in nat gas demand the NNPC has identified Seven natural gas projects it's christened the ‘Seven Critical Gas Development Projects (7CGDP)’.
The NNPC said that "domestic gas demand is growing at an exponential rate that is outpacing the gas supply development plan".....the revised plan "is to bridge it with seven critical gas projects."
Critical Gas Project Number 6 - Cluster Development of OML 13 to support the expansion of the Seven Energy(Savannah Energy) Uquo Gas Plant.
* Cluster Gas Development of OML 13 with 2P reserves of 5 Tcf. Expected volume - 400 MMscf/day.
* Expansion of existing Uquo Gas Plant
hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7tBMGbdzF0
David Neuhauser - MD of Livermore Partners, one of Jadestone's two US Hedge Fund share holders that jointly hold close to a third of the stock - talks about Inflation, Gold, Energy and Oil - 5th March 2021.
Energy and Oil from 4min 20sec
BIDEN SAYS STIMULUS PLAN CAN INCREASE U.S. GDP BY $1 TRILLION - Zero Hedge
'So every dollar of debt buys less than 50c of growth'
"Yes.. that is the math..... and the effect is tax by inflation. So watch out.. " David Neuhauser
Marine Fuel Oil prices continue to strengthen ahead of the rate of increase of Global crude oil benchmark pricing:
Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)
$98 / (+23) - MGO - APAC Average
$84 / (+23) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$81 / (+25) - Jadestone / STAG - (est $11 / 18% Premium to Brent)
$73 / (+22) - Jadestone / Montara - ($4.0 / 8% Premium to Brent)
$71 / (+22) - Maari ($2.0 / 3% Premium to Brent)
$69 / (+21) - Brent
$66 / (+20) - WTI
$64 / (+18) - HSFO - APAC Average
$3 - VLSFO/STAG Spread
$15 - VLSFO/Brent Spread
$20 - VLSFO/HSFO Spread
At the current Brent price and group guidance average 2021 OPEX of $27.50/bbl, this suggests the potential for group operating cash flow for 2021 of circa $250m+.
With production being ramped up during H2/2021, and a year end production exit rate of perhaps 17-18,000 bopd(assuming Maari completes as expected), together with a "high $teen/bbl OPEX during Q4/2021"; this could generate another huge step change increase in the current excellent cash generation going into 2022.
In addition, the CEO has strongly hinted the next acquisition is very likely to be a producing asset ....so, JSE could well be a 20,000+ bopd producer entering 2022 with sub $20/bbl OPEX. Such a production growth scenario could potentially generate cash flows of circa $400m per annum at $69 Brent(plus IMO 2020 Premiums) and circa $600m at $100 Brent.
AIMHO/DYOR
Marine Fuel Oil prices are continuing to strengthen ahead of the rate of increase of the Global Benchmark crude oil pricing:
Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)
$94 / (+19) - MGO - APAC Average
$81 / (+20) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$76 / (+20) - Jadestone / STAG - (est $11 / 18% Premium to Brent)
$68 / (+17) - Jadestone / Montara - ($4.0 / 8% Premium to Brent)
$66 / (+17) - Maari ($2.0 / 3% Premium to Brent)
$64 / (+16) - Brent
$62 / (+16) - WTI
$60 / (+14) - HSFO - APAC Average
$24/bbl - Est Stag OPEX
$18/bbl - Est Montara OPEX
$16.5/bbl - Maari OPEX
$5 - VLSFO/STAG Spread
$17 - VLSFO/Brent Spread
$21 - VLSFO/HSFO Spread
Jadestone should currently be generating circa $52/bbl of cash flow on the Stag production, $50/bbl on the unhedged Montara Production and Maari production, inclusive of the IMO 2020 Premium.
Equivalent to over $215 million per annum of cash flow on an annualised basis inclusive of the Q1/2021 oil price hedge and, circa $290 million inclusive of Maari production;
based on an average of the current production for the year, which is likely to be highly conservative considering the in-fill drilling, well optimisation and pump replacement programme scheduled for 2021.
AIMHO/DYOR
You don't build a port terminal with a laughably claimed £170m carrying value to handle ultra low value, ultra low stevedoring and port storage revenue generating cargo like bulk Coal and Cement.
The market was disingenuously told the target traffic was the ultra high revenue generating container traffic currently handled at the nearly new JNPT Container Terminal 4, recently built in 2 years.
Of course, those with long experience of the industry knew this was just another crudely planned management ruse to effect further placings to keep the scam going.
Coal and Cement handled through the Port of Mumbai currently generates cargo handling revenue of less than £1 a tonne!
AIMHO/DYOR
Ps:Transactional value so far today is £45k - that would not even cover the cost of Broker Cenkos' Christmas lunch in the City and they have taken many, many £millions out of shareholders in MPL over the years !
Along with news of the completion of the Maari acquisition, another short term price catalyst is likely to be the Government sanctioning of the development plan for the Vietnam assets and Board approval.
Nam Du and U Minh should add an extra 30mm boe to 2P Reserves
According to JSE management this will add $246m NPV to the company, or around 53c/40p per share.
Current valuation is circa 20% below the NAV value of Stag and Montara with nothing yet in there for Maari (30p) and Nam Du and U Minh (40p).
Update to an earlier post on operating cash flow calculations/projections for 2021.
2021 Assumptions:
Average production of 10,500 bopd, 3,000 bopd and 3,750 bopd respectively for Montara, Stag and Maari(Assuming Acquisition completes in H1/2021).
Infill well on Montara and Stag
Average IMO 2020 premiums to Brent of $4, $11 and $2 respectively for Montara, Stag and Maari,
Average OPEX/bbl
$18.50 - Montara - Est Current Actual
$25.00 - Stag - Est Current Actual
$16.50 - Maari - Current Actual
I calculate this would generate estimated 2021 operating cash flows of:
@ $45 Brent
$192.4 million / Montara - $116.8m + Stag - $33.9m + Maari - $41.7m
@ $50 Brent
$223.9 million / Montara - $135.9m + Stag - $39.42m + Maari - $48.60m
@ $55 Brent
$255.4 million / Montara - $155.1m + Stag - $44.9m + Maari - $55.4m
@ $60 Brent
$286.9 million / Montara - $174.3m + Stag - $50.4m + Maari - $62.2m
@ $65 Brent
$318.3 million / Montara - $193.4m + Stag - $55.8m + Maari - $69.1m
@ $70 Brent
$349.8 million / Montara - $212.6m + Stag - $61.3m + Maari - $75.9m
In addition, Jadestone management is actively evaluating attractively priced acquisition opportunities ranging from small bolt-ons to some greater than Montara in size ...... any secured at a valuation metric remotely similar to Montara would have the potential to generate a further large step change increase in cash flow.
With Montara's $120m bank loan fully repaid in Q1/2021; this suggests the management could comfortably access that or more again for a high quality mid/late life asset with excellent reinvestment potential, that might add 10-15k bopd and still be in a very comfortable position to pay the debt down in a relatively short time period at circa $55-60 Brent.
AIMHO/DYOR