Member Info for MountTeide

Strong finish..... closed 2 v 3 / 4.0p v 4.2p (rest between 4.25p and 4.40p)

Previous energy crises were supply side shocks with geopolitical origins. Today, supply constraints around gas and oil are evident once more but, crucially, and as some here predicted, these constraints are happening at a time when energy markets are trying to continue absorbing the massive and still accelerating 20-year Asian energy demand shock, increasingly now exacerbated by the naive rush over the last decade by the green, woke West's 'transition' into expensive and comparatively poorly performing renewables.

Per capita energy consumption in China was more than 750% higher in 2020 than in 1973, yet today, despite importing more oil than the entire annual production of Saudi Arabia, Norway and the UK combined, and recently usurping Japan as the world's largest LNG importer, Chinese energy consumption per capita is still only one eighth of the USA.

There has been no historical equivalent to the recent situation of the Chinese government demanding that energy companies procure supply of all energy sources at any cost.

The scale of the energy demand problem is given perspective by the fact that the energy demand per capita of the 3.4 billion emerging nation populations of SE Asia and India (excluding China - population 1.4 billion) is accelerating faster than China, while still having an average per capita energy consumption around one fourteenth of the West.

Data Source: mostly from Lloyd's list and BP's Annual World Energy Review

Previous energy crises were supply side shocks with geopolitical origins. Today, supply constraints around gas and oil are evident once more but, crucially, and as some here predicted, these constraints are happening at a time when energy markets are trying to continue absorbing the massive and still accelerating 20-year Asian energy demand shock, increasingly now exacerbated by the naive rush over the last decade by the green, woke West's 'transition' into expensive and comparatively poorly performing renewables.

Per capita energy consumption in China was more than 750% higher in 2020 than in 1973, yet today, despite importing more oil than the entire annual production of Saudi Arabia, Norway and the UK combined, and recently usurping Japan as the world's largest LNG importer, Chinese energy consumption per capita is still only one eighth of the USA.

There has been no historical equivalent to the recent situation of the Chinese government demanding that energy companies procure supply of all energy sources at any cost.

The scale of the energy demand problem is given perspective by the fact that the energy demand per capita of the 3.4 billion emerging nation populations of SE Asia and India (excluding China - population 1.4 billion) is accelerating faster than China, while still having an average per capita energy consumption around one fourteenth of the West.

Data Source: mostly from Lloyd's list and BP's Annual World Energy Review

Buffalo reservoir contains light premium oil with an API of 53° and ultra low sulphur content.

It's a very similar specification to the light premium oil produced at the Montara Field which has mostly attracted a $2-5/bbl premium over Brent during the last year, as it's in great demand for the production of fuels for the aviation industry.

Between PM and on completion of Maari - Jadestone Energy will have likely received a net consideration of circa $85 million for circa 10,000 bopd of producing assets with 24 mmbo of P2 reserves.....which have re-investment potential to maintain this level of production for circa 5 years....that are currently generating operating cash flow close to $250 million a year!

AIMHO/DYOR

Whoever it was on Advfn who previously suggested Paul Blakeley was overpaid needs to improve their investment research or stick to premium bonds.

At this stage of the commodity cycle, like our two large hedge fund investors and Crispin Odey, who collectively own circa 40% of the company, I see Jadestone Energy as a 3-5 year investment.

With current realised oil prices in the mid $80's and production already close to 20,000 boepd, and on schedule to exceed that by December when OPEX/bbl is expected to go sub $20, Jadestone Energy as a business currently resembles a high denomination bank note printing press.

From a fundamentals perspective, the current valuation of the company offers exceptional upside potential with excellent downside risk - as the management ably demonstrated during the depths of the 2020 Covid driven oil price collapse, when the business was still cash flow positive BELOW $25 Brent.

AIMHO/DYOR

Offshore Angola - No Western Supermajors submitted a bid in latest auction of deep water blocks - African Juniors dominate the list of contenders.

No-shows: Majors absent from Sonangol's farm-out drive as "anaemic" capital market impacts bidders - Upstream Energy / 11/10/2021

African juniors dominate list of contenders eager to acquire part of state oil company's block stakes.

No western supermajors submitted bids to acquire stakes in promising acreage made available offshore Angola by state-owned Sonangol, with the list of contenders dominated by indigenous players and some consolidation moves by China's Sinopec.

Sonangol needs to scale back its interests in eight shallow and deep-water blocks due to financial issues and began a farm-out process covering eight blocks in June.........

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/no-shows-majors-absent-from-sonangols-farm-out-drive-as-anaemic-capital-market-impacts-bidders/2-1-1079966

L2 moved to 1 v 1 / 93p v 94p (rest spread between 94p and 99p)

Now to 2 v 2 / 93p v 95p (rest spread between 96p and 100p)

First time since the 2018 IPO there's been a MM on three figures!

50k buy at 93.8p in the 9am auction knocked the last MM off the 93p Offer

Now: 3 v 2 / 92p v 94p (rest spread between 95p and 99p)

IMO 2020 spike aside, ship bunker prices this week passed a 7 year high, not seen since the days of $100 Brent

At today's $84/bbl Brent price, Jadestone's Stag production should be realising circa $94/bbl inclusive of the most recent IMO 2020 price premium to Brent.

Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing - Change compared to pricing on 9th December 2020 in brackets - (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)

$119 / (+40) - Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$97 / (+33) - VLSFO - APAC Average
$94 / (+36) - Jadestone / STAG - $10.15/bbl latest premium to Brent)
$85 / (+33) - Jadestone / Montara - $1.5/bbl latest premium to Brent
$85 / (+33) - Jadestone / Peninsula Malaysia - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$85 / (+33) - Maari - est $1.5/bbl premium to Brent
$84 / (+35) - Brent
$84 / (+40) - High Sulphur Fuel Oil - APAC Average
$80 / (+32) - WTI

At today's Brent price, 2021 guidance OPEX and latest IMO 2020 premiums to Brent, Jadestone should be realising circa $65/bbl operating cash flow for its Stag and Montara production, and circa $68/bbl for its Peninsula Malaysian production.

With estimated current total production of circa 19,500 bopd(13,000 bopd /Montara and Stag - 6,500 boepd / PM), Jadestone should be realising circa $470 million/yr of gross operating cash flow per year, with the potential to increase to $530 million/yr by December on completion of the Skua and Swift work-overs, and up to $613 million/year on completion of the Maari acquisition.

Current market cap: $579m.

Estimated Annual Revenue at $84/Brent:
$614m - Current
$690m - Plus Skua and Swift Work-overs
$800m - On Maari Completion (plus a circa $65m-75m net consideration cheque)

AIMHO/DYOR

2014 = $50m raised at 56p
2015 = $36m at 38p
2016 = $40m at 38p
2017 = $125m at 35p
2019 = $23m at 28p

$274m - Raised at a weighted average price of 39.1p

$259m - Current market cap

2020 Annual Report

Photo 1 is of a coastal container carrier approaching a river container terminal - Karanja Port does not have any quay container cranes or storage compound container handling equipment to handle this type of vessel.

Photo 2 is of a deep draft bulk carrier discharging grain at a purpose built bulk
cargo terminal.
Karanja Port has no automated bulk cargo handling equipment to handle such vessels and would not be able to receive a vessel of this size due to Karanja Creeks's severe draft restriction.

Photo 3 is of a deep draft geared bulk carrier discharging a timber deck cargo - this type of deep sea vessel would also not be able to get within 3 miles of Karanja Port without running aground due to the fact that Karanja Creek is only dredged to 3 meters. Even at high water there would only be 6 metres of available water in the creek - totally insufficient to accomodate anything other then barges and small coasters.

The 'Nand Aparna' is a small coaster - it was handled at Karanja Port as a trial around 2 years - it was loaded with steel coils.

As Karanja terminal has no jetty cranes - a road going mobile crane was used to discharge the vessel directly to road trailer - the steel coils were transferred directly out the port to a third party warehouse for storage and onward distribution, as Karanja did not have any under cover storage available.

The $30+ rise in the price of Brent from the effective date of the Malaysian Petronas PM acquisition, means that the PM assets (circa 6,500 boepd) are today throwing off circa £154 million a year in operating cash-flow before very modest capex and other adjustments.

The net $9 million cheque given to JSE on completion for these assets from the effective economic acquisition date, must make this one of the deals of the year.

AIMHO/DYOR

In the notes to the accounts the total amount of Loan drawn down to date is £38m - I fully expect the management to draw on the remainder if and when the banks lift the temporary stop they imposed on the company in 2019, to prevent the Board from drawing further funds from the £47.6m loan facility.

It would be a demonstration of duplicity on an industrial scale were the Board to have elected to use blurred photographs of other working ports in the Introduction to the 2020 Annual Report and NOT their shareholder's operational Karanja Port !!!

The fact they did just use blurred photographs of other ports is breathtakingly disingenuous !!

Tils - if the total loan sum is £47.6m, then divided by 7 years equals £6.8m of capital repayments per year.
In the first year the interest due on that would be £4.52m .....so, £11.32m would be payable that year. The each following year the capital repayment due would be £6.8m PLUS 9.5% of the outstanding capital(£40.8m ) which in year two would be £3.87m...so, a total of £10.67m of capital and interest would be payable in year 2....and so on !

A few years back in the accounts the company actually stated that with the prevailing 13.45% interest rate on the circa £49m bank loan they had a debt and interest liability of circa £95m.

"Down Down Deeper and Down !"

Now in its twelve year since IPO - the only people who have profited since are the shameless shysters masquerading as Board Members ! They have banqueted handsomely at shareholders expense for over a decade - taking £millions out of the Company for presiding over a 99.8% loss of shareholders IPO investments!

From my notes the rig used to drill the two Coora wells and two WD-4 wells, took an average of 9 days(610ft a day) and 11 days(560ft a day) respectively.

The two Coora wells were drilled to 5,360ft and 5,627ft, while the two WD-4 wells were drilled to 6,926ft and 5,383ft. A third WD-4 well was drilled to 7,340ft but was seriously delayed by a tropical cyclone, which pushed the drill time out to 20 days.

If the Star Valley Rig is 25% more powerful/efficient than the rig used in 2017, then a 6,000ft well on WD-4 could potentially be drilled in circa 9 days.

AIMHO/DYOR

The Asian LNG benchmark (JKM) surged to an all-time high yesterday of $56.3 per million Btu (circa $320 per barrel of oil equivalent).

Makes JSE's $8.00-$9.00 per million Btu target price for the development of its Vietnam assets look a steal!

Asia LNG spot price surges by 40% to record high - Reuters

hTTps://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asia-lng-spot-price-surges-by-40-record-high-2021-10-06/

How to turn £1 million into £1,280 - let the MPL shysters look after your investments !