Member Info for MountTeide

Australian Heavy sweet crude IMO 2020 premiums continue to grind higher.

'A February loading cargo of Vincent crude traded at a premium of high $9's/bbl to Platts Dated Brent, FOB, while an earlier spot tender for Pyrenees loading over Feb 5-9 was heard to have been awarded by BHP at similar levels. '

Source: S&P Global Platts

Australian Heavy Sweet Crudes Vincent, Stag, Pyrenees and Van Gogh, prior to the implementation of the IMO 2020 Shipping Fuel Rules routinely traded at a circa $5/bbl discount to Brent.

The new low sulphur International shipping regulations saw an immediate and unprecedented rise in demand for Australian heavy sweet crude from shipowners; prices surged in 2020 averaging between $13/bbl(June) to $35/bbl(Feb) higher than they would have been prior to the introduction of the new rules.

I estimate Australian heavy sweet crude averaged circa $16/bbl premium to Brent in 2020.

If Brent were to average $55-60 Brent in 2020, it would be reasonable to expect the Stag IMO 2020 premium to average circa $11-12/bbl - a circa 21% premium to Brent.

The impact of the IMO 2020 premiums to Brent today with respect to OPEX is stunning, effectively reducing the Stag OPEX to circa $16/bbl and Montara to circa $14/bbl.

After three months below the 200 DMA, encouraging to see the 50 DMA cut through the 200 DMA like a hot knife through butter on this latest surge north.

Where to start ?
Your naivety is breathtaking, desperation palpable and the quality of your research laughable/non existent!
"A mate who works in shipping went and looked at the site and saw work going on !"
If you're basing your investment case on that god help you!
Read the research from industry professionals who've explained what is going on here - if we're wrong, please explain what our 90 years of collective senior management experience running international shipping companies and ports has failed to allow us to understand !
Ask any port professional like me, with long experience of running freight ro-ro vessels and ro-ro ports and you'll find to run a ro-ro service to a tidal port requires a purpose built floating link-span pontoon....that would take 18 months to build......to adjust for the constantly varying height between the cargo decks of the ro-ro vessel and the terminal's fixed jetty/quay height. Looked at the latest google earth images of Karanja port and you will find it had no linkspan pontoon and so is unable to safety handle ro-ro ships/barges, even if they were able to access the terminal by sea!
Secondly, the vessel access channel in Karanja Creek is only dredged to 3.0 metres by MMB the Port Authority, meaning that the port is only serviceable by very small coasters and barges.

The significance of what the management has done in building a fixed linkspan bridge to the centre of the 400m still yet to be completed jetty, is that they have made 25% of it forever unavailable to handle ships/barges thereby reducing the revenue potential of the terminal by up to 25% at a stroke by cutting the available quay length from800m to 600m BEFORE ever handling a ship ........only a total lunatic would do such a thing or fraudsters trying to keep the plates spinning by building it to serve a small non shipping related contract to build a bridge nearby; enabling them to continue to use the £12m or so of shareholders cash left to keep them in the lifestyles they have become accustomed to at shareholders expense for the last 11 years, during which they have yet to earn a nickel of revenue while presiding over a 99.9% s/p fall since the IPO !

AIMHO/DYOR

Son, if your last post is a reliable guide of the quality of the research of this company and me that you've carried out, then you should stick to National Lottery Scratch Cards!

9p - the very top ? Clueless, totally clueless.....No, 250p was the IPO price....10p (a 96% loss) was the first placing price and 2p (a 99.3% loss) was the third placing price .....for a straightforward real estate development that is still not even half built after 7 years under construction at 'cost' claimed by the company that is more than three times the £57m offer that won the tender to build the 200 acre port in its entirety!

How do you know how much I lost? It is condescending in the extreme to make such a statement unless you can back it up with facts. Some free advice....if you dont know keep your mouth shut and let others just think you're a fool!

You can do all the DD in the world but if the management don't do what they said they said they were going to do as laid out in the IPO Document or are fraudsters or both, there is nothing you can do but sell and attempt to hold them to account.

If I had shorted MPL I could of made a fortune - but I've never shorted a share in my life and never will.

At ARS I correctly called the situation as a lone voice ......sold out after 4 years at 5.6p making a £150k profit and put in mainly into SAVE . If I had kept the faith and stayed with ARS, less than a month later 1 would need ARS to go up 300% to break even !

'Your complaint led to you writing a 120page report, (your own words...), now you said nothing has been done on the Port, so how the hell can you fill 120 pages in a report when nothing has been done incl pictures???'
Son, its called 40 years experience running ports and shipping companies ..... again I urge you to seriously consider Scratch Cards if this is the quality of your 'research'!

'You mention the detailsed IPO DOCUMENT. The IPO document is only 68pages, yet your complaint is 120pages allegedly.??
I requested a copy of this report to be shared on ad*fn as you said the management have never responded to you.'
My first thought was to answer Scratch Cards but, since you have a very poor memory, I'll remind you that I had directed you to read all the posts made on Ad*fn since November 2016, as it contains most of what was in the report. As for the IPO document only being 68 pages .......remember its was written by people who have NO Port and Shipping industry experience or hold any professional qualifications .......I know that because I have spoken to them on numerous occasions !

Another free tip for you .....The best way to get good at equity market investment is to initially lose money and lots of it because it sharpens the mind and demonstrates the importance of keeping to sectors that you have long professional experience of...... and don't believe anything of what you read without first verifying it!

Considering the severe vessel draft restrictions in the marine access channel and reduction of the usable quay length to just 600m, and circa 60 acre reduction in the land area of the terminal, together with the fact that only 90 of the 200 acres of land originally due for reclaimation in the IPO Document after 6 years of construction, and that only 30 acres of that has so far been developed into open storage for low value cargo, we consider that what has been built to date to have a trade sale value of around $10m-15m.

$10-15m - Estimated Trade Sale Value of Karanja Port Asset
$20m - Estimated Cost of construction work to date
£160m - Management's calculation of the carrying value of the asset in the accounts

£0m - Revenues generated between 2014 to 2019
£60m - Estimated Debt Capital and Interest Payment Liabilities

£7m - current Market Cap

Market(correctly) seems to think that it's only a matter of time before the banks exercise their lien over the asset and render the equity worthless.

AIOHO/DYOR

Unbelievable! .....the disingenuous charlatans will do anything to keep the plates spinning!

The shysters, 6 months after raising another £37m in November 2016 from clueless II's already down 96% post the IPO, quietly revealed to the the market the 1000m all weather quay as described in the IPO Documentation, would now be a lightweight 400m jetty without any weather protection - rendering it largely unusable for many types of cargo throughout much of the 5-6 month monsoon season.

However, they laughably pointed out that the jetty would in fact have 800m of quay length: ie 2 x 400m (using the inside and outside of the jetty!).....which would mean losing at least 60 acres of the 200 acres to provide marine access to the inner berths!).

The shameless scam artists cheerfully claimed this revision to the port design specification(preferred by the Board - I bet it was!), would come at an increased cost of circa £37m, rather than the £25m saving we estimated it should have been!

So imagine our surprise to find in the latest Google Earth images that they have still not completed construction of the Jetty but have decided to build an access bridge to the centre of the jetty directly from the storage compound.

Presumably, because of the problem we told them they would have with just a single access point at the eastern end of the jetty......namely the massive near mile round trip running distances to transfer cargo to/from vessels on the jetty......up to 10 times further than the original all weather fixed quay design.

So, to overcome this problem which would dramatically increase the cost of operating and see ship turnaround productivity fall off a cliff, the shysters/knuckleheads decide to build a fixed link from the storage compound to the 200m point of the jetty.....effectively at a stroke cutting off all vessel/ barge access to 200m of quay on the inner side of the jetty before it had even handled a vessel, and reducing the total quay length available from 800m to just 600m.

And don't forget the Karanja Creek 3 mile access channel from Mumbai Harbour to the terminal jetty has got just 3.0 metres of water in it........less than my local yacht marina!

After reviewing the work completed at Karanja Terminal in the latest very clear 2020 Google Earth images with two friends, also industry professionals, we have revised our valuation of the work carried out to date to £20m max......well below the circa $30m plus interest loaned by the banks to date, who have a lien over the asset.

Like Sepp Blatter, when Head of the FIFA crime family, Sepp only travelled(by private jet naturally) to country's with no extradition treaty with the USA.

Why would he return to Singapore (alleged $89m bank fraud) or Indonesia(alleged $40m securities fraud against a state pension fund) ...... the 330m ARS share sale scenario raising $15m would fit very neatly IF he were a fraudster!
AIMHO/DYOR

Bonkers......thats easily remedied ......don't listen ......filter my posts.

The flaw in the thinking of many here is that you're assuming Aetrunum is not run by cash strapped shysters with no verifiable assets(other than possibly circa 20% of ARS's shareholding), who took Sugih Energy into administration after carrying out an alleged $40m securities fraud!

I would discount NOTHING with Aeturnum's/Sugih's management's track record.

Including that AE's shareholding may be now close to zero - highly possible if they had no intention of seeing through the deal other than to use it to 6 bag their circa 330m ARS shareholding bought at 0.9p; before having to hand over any funds. Their delays in paying even now $2.5m would fit in with this scenario, and the timetable of events connected to the $89m alleged bank fraud.

Then, neatly tying up loose ends by bolting back to India which has no extradition with Indonesia AFAIAA; neatly avoiding responsibility for the alleged $89m bank fraud and with circa £12m+ profit on their ARS shareholding safety laundered.

Where alleged fraudsters are concerned " Never underestimate their cunning and greed". The II 'invested' in MPL learned the hard way that trying to take an Indian National to court in India for fraud is a non starter.

AIMHO/DYOR

What if PTWIN/Aeturnum are no more successful at building a copper mine and heap leach production plant than running E&P O&G assets.......and the s/p follows the same path.

ARS shareholders will be left with £50m max....which would please Manini as it will continue to keep him in the lifestyle to which he has become accustomed over the last 6 years at shareholders expense but, for ARS shareholders it might see the ARS market value at no more than it is today with the KSK asset gone.

Have never shorted a share in my life.....and this is coming from someone who would have made a fortune shorting MPL.......I know two people who - after explaining to them how MPL was a circa £150m+ fraud - made serious money doing so.

One described it as like going into a casino knowing you can't lose. There has been a lot of PI's over the years who tried to catch the MPL falling knife but to their horror found the management had welded it to a 2 tonne anvil!

Ps: If I shorted would have opened a short at 5.6p where I sold my last 25% not AFTER it has fallen 40%!

Many here are giving AE too much credit.....yes, they may have played the clueless Manini, his Board and shareholders like a finely tuned grand piano .....but, their publicly verifiable business track record points to them as being nothing more than a bunch of shysters masquerading as energy traders currently in receipt of writs alleging they carried out an $89m bank fraud......after allegedly carrying out a $40m securities fraud at Sugih Energy for which the CEO is facing 18 years in prison according to comments by Indonesia'a prosecutor General.

Just the sort of people the Indonesian Stock Exchange would be 'delighted' to have bring one of the largest IPO's ($500m) to market in 2020, after suspending the shyster's previous quoted vehicle for extremely serious Company Governance issues and a failure to pay regulatory fines which saw the finically weak business soon after fall into administration ......while the management were fighting allegations of carrying out a $40m fraud against a State Pension Fund.

AIMHO/DYOR

'MT, you don't seem to know anything of Manini's history! '

You could not be more wrong .....check out my postings on Adv*n over the last few years!

FWIW .....As posted at the time on Adv*n, 70% of the money was invested three weeks ago in SAVE at circa 9.6p(since up to over 9p in ARS terms) and JPL at circa 13.1p last week.

One share the same as I still hold at MPL despite being told by the previous CEO (and now highly paid MPL Consultant) to "F*ck Off and sell my shares" when he didn't like my line of questioning in a meeting with two other PI's with large holdings!
Not long after the shyster was arrested by the FBI on arrival at JFK Airport and charged with carrying out a $300m security fraud on US soil, for which he is currently out on $1m bail !

Reduced to using my jokes now! I'm flattered !
I'll take that as Game, set, and match !
For a good laugh .....read back over Shadowboxers posting history ......how wrong and sycophantic can you be? - blinkered zealots like him should be banned from stockmarket investment for their own protection !

If you read Adv*fn you would know that I held 6.4m from nearly four years ago at an average of 3.8p .......sold out at an average of 5.6p ..... realising a £115k profit / £28k a year ..... it should and would have been far more but for Manini's total incompetence and unique skill at ****ing off the market by constantly overpromising and failing to deliver!

Ah 'Sling' we thought you were too busy enjoying the Melbourne sunshine to come back and comment on your 'Guru's' breathtaking incompetence and appalling DD - which has lost loyal shareholders $millions !

Still, even with 34 million shares worth just £1m now .......its hardly going to hurt Manini .....he has taken more than that out the company over the last 6 years ....so his shares are for free courtesy of the shareholders !

Really ?
Do some research !
It had less half the shares in circulation then and this was before JP Morgan stampeded to the exit door happy to take a 73% haircut after supporting the company with huge placing up to 11p .....that ARS's only II of note stormed out the door at 2p with their tail firmly between their legs spoke volumes for the management performance and credibility of ARS!

'but the comapny has very poor mangement.'

I have been pointing this out for a long time - but the zealots on Adv*n and here seem to see Manini as a 'Guru' for what he did at Oxiana Metals: where he was little more than a bag carrier for the main man ......since he stepped up to the top job with excellent assets at ARS he has been an unmitigated disaster unable to meet a single business development timeline target in three years.....and now we have this debacle with a bunch of shysters at AE, who's Company Governance was so bad at Sugih it got them suspended from the IDX exchange.
Manini's DD on AE is appalling: he should do the honourable thing and resign before the shareholders give him what he deserves....a size 11 boot up the ARS !

'The deal is still on.'
Answers:
To offer balance to breathtakingly arrogant charlatans like you trying to mislead !

Perhaps you can offer your source because the market currently thinks otherwise !