According to an Invamer poll released on Friday, Hernandez reached 48.2% of the vote preference, and Petro, scored 47.2%..... Reuters
While Hernandez, of the Anti-Corruption Rulers' League Party, gained from the 47.4% he scored in Invamer's May poll, Petro of the Historic Pact lost 2.8% from the previous survey......
......An oil and gas industry source who declined to be named told Reuters they would much prefer Hernandez.
"The first round was encouraging," the source said, adding the industry could survive a hostile government.
"A four-year hiatus on bidding rounds will not be the death of the industry," the source said, adding everyone has "more than enough (oil and gas) blocks to be getting on with."
The Colombian Mining Association (ACM) was furious this week after Petro linked coal to cocaine, calling it "irresponsible and above all disrespectful," in a message its president Juan Camilo Narino shared with journalists.
Colombia is a major coal exporter and shipped almost 60 million tonnes in 2021, according to the government's DANE statistics agency. Narino said mining is essential to Colombia and the world.
Adding that Colombia would have to grow its agricultural sector six fold to match the economic contribution of mining.
One Industry source said that if Petro wins, he must accept that income generated by mining is vital to funding social programs, which he has pledged to re-vamp to correct profound inequality.
"He'll be a little more aware of how necessary the mining and energy sector is, if he wants to be able to continue investing in all the country's subsidies," the person said.
Oil and mining combined provide more than 50% of Colombia's monthly exports, according to government figures, and up to 8% of gross domestic product.'
My view: Mr Petro has moderated his tone of late, making the situation increasingly reminiscent of the Spring 2021 Presidential election in Peru, which saw left and right wing populists face off. Mr Castillo, the left wing Populist won by the slimmest of margins and once in Government, faced with economic reality, hostile institutions, an unfriendly business sector, and a Parliament/Congress where he held no majority, Castillo was forced to considerably soften his line, such that little has changed with respect to economic or social policy in the country since the election.
Even in the event Petro defies the polls and were to win, as O&G investors found in Peru(I hold Petrotal) I strongly suspect radical change is very unlikely due to Colombia’s similar parliamentary make-up, where the Senate and the House of Representatives does not have a left wing majority, and where old clientelist power structures continue to have a firm grasp on Colombia’s economic and political systems.
AIMHO/DYOR
Bookies, a section of the community who are not known for giving their money away, think its all over bar the shouting, as those odds in decimals are:
2/5 ON - Hernandez (You win £40 plus your stake)
17/10 AGAINST - Petro (You'd win £170 plus your stake)
'Diference between JAde and Ptal is that jade has to spend a lot of money on the depleting gs assets to make them productive and the margins are unattractive'
News to me ....and I hold 1.32m JSE and 0.8m PTAL! Perhaps you can elaborate?
As the last time I looked JSE's operating margin was circa $111/bbl @ $124 Brent + premiums
His simple message of ending corruption by slashing state budgets has resonated in a country where many voters see tackling graft as a top priority. He has promised financial rewards to citizens who report corrupt state officials.
Petro’s result confirms that he has solid support across the country, particularly among the young and the poor. But it also suggests he has a ceiling of about 40% that he struggles to break through, as was indicated in the last election in 2018, when he came second to rightwing incumbent Iván Duque.
“Everyone knows Petro is allied to Marxist guerrilla groups, the Farc and the ELN, and the country can’t forget how those bandits intimidated us for years,” said Jorge Garzón, a 34-year-old who voted for Gutiérrez on Sunday. “That’s what Gustavo Petro is all about and we can’t allow him to win.” '
Presidential Poll - latest aggregator of 11 polls:
+48% - Hernandez
+43% - Petro
Hernandez is picking up most of centre right Gutrerrez's 23% vote - he's up 20% from the 1st round vote .
Left wing Petro's appeal has only changed +2% from the 1st round - suggesting the bookies are probably right that Hernandez, is now seen as the 'Anyone But Petro' candidate and will be very difficult to beat in the second round.
The Presidential election first round result could not have worked out better for the O&G sector given that most of Gutiérrez’s conservative supporters are likely to back Hernández in the second round
Populist Hernández to face leftwinger Petro in Colombia election run-off - FT today
'Populist businessman Rodolfo Hernández pulled off a strong second-place showing in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, comfortably clinching a run-off next month against former leftwing guerrilla Gustavo Petro.
With most results in, Hernández, an outspoken populist who has been compared to former US president Donald Trump, had earned about 28% of the vote, beating the more established centre-right candidate Federico Gutiérrez, who was third with 24%.
Petro won with more than 40% of the vote but given that most of Gutiérrez’s supporters are likely to back Hernández in the second round, the leftwing frontrunner has his work cut out to win the presidency. He won about 8.5mn votes while Hernández and Gutiérrez took nearly 11mn between them.
“This really is the hardest scenario imaginable for Petro and I don’t think his campaign team will be very happy,” said Sandra Botero, political analyst at Rosario University in Bogotá. “It will be an uphill struggle for him in the second round.”
The results were set to spur financial markets on Monday. Economists had forecast that if Hernández made it to the second round, the peso and Colombian assets would strengthen in anticipation of his eventual victory in a run-off.
For most of the campaign, Petro and Gutiérrez led opinion polls but Hernández, a straight-talking 77-year-old millionaire who has financed his own campaign, surged in the final polls before the vote. Some voters on the right seem to have turned to him at the last minute as their best chance of keeping Petro from power.
“To those who voted for me, I tell you now, I won’t fail you,” Hernández said in a video message recorded shortly after the results were announced.
There were jubilant scenes in his home city of Bucaramanga, where he was mayor for four turbulent years from 2016-2019 but was known as an uncompromising campaigner against corruption. When he left office, he had an approval rating of 84 per cent.
Thousands of his supporters took to the city’s streets, waving “Rodolfo” flags and chanting his name.
Hernández’s age, wealth and tirades against traditional politicians have led some to dub him “Colombia’s Trump”. Others, perhaps in reference to his permanent suntan and carefully coiffured comb-over, have likened him to Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi.
When he launched his campaign last year, few gave him a chance and as recently as March he was polling at about 10%. Hernández has no political party and leads a makeshift movement called the League of Anti-Corruption Governors. He has made very few public appearances during the campaign, making extensive use of social media instead.
Petro's - Energy and Extractive Industry Policy
"Our government will lay the foundation of (energy/ transition via a gradual de-escalation guarantying the reliability and stability of the energy system, including its sources of
employment and economic resources."
"The exploration and exploitation of non-conventional oil reserves will be forbidden; pilot fracking studies will be halted as well as off-shore developments. No new hydrocar-
bon exploration licenses will be granted, and open-air mining projects will not be allowed."
'Petro's economic advisors have emphasized that the candidate's stance on transforming the sector has been exaggerated, seeking to reinforce the gradual, responsible and predictable
nature of plans to reduce the dependency on oil will be gradual. Ecopetrol, under the policy would be able AND required to provide the oil-based fuel the economy needs for
the next 15 years.' JP Morgan Securities Economic Research Note - April 2022
Predictably, Petro has moderated his tone during the election campaign, making a very public legally binding pledge not to expropriate private assets and insisting that he has no intention of staying on once his single four-year term is up — Colombia’s constitution bans re-election.
He would also be constrained by a highly fragmented congress, where his coalition, the Historic Pact, is the biggest group but has only 18% of the seats in the Senate and 15% in the lower house.
“Petro might say his policies are A, B and C but that doesn’t mean he can deliver on them,” says Luis Fernando Mejía, director of economic think-tank Fedesarrollo. Mejía says that in a worst-case scenario, Petro would preside over “a highly conflictive government that doesn’t get anything done” rather than a government that dismantles Colombia’s institutions.
'No new hydrocarbon exploration licenses will be granted'
Going by industry and media comments ....this would likely mean a cessation of the Licensing Round System (last was Nov 2021 when circa 40 new licenses were issued)....where the Government offers exploration acreage for leasing by O&G E&P companies(typically in return for a fee and a performance or work obligation, such as acquisition of seismic data or drilling a well)......and would only impact licenses already issued, where they were for unconventional shale oil type fracking plays, for which there are very few.
'And somebody, somewhere in Western Africa, is very, very jealous of what is coming our way, given today's potentially libellous article.'
There are two clear contenders !
With a blended OPEX/bbl of $25.50 and production back up to circa 17,000 bopd - JSE will be printing cash with the operating cash flow(pre capex) now at circa $111.5/bbl (equivalent to $1.90m/day - $58.7m/month)
Current Spot Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing/bbl (all prices rounded to nearest whole number) - change to last week in brackets
$204 (+3) / Marine Gas Oil - APAC Average
$177 (+7) / VLSFO - APAC Average
$148 (+8) / Jadestone / STAG
$135 (+5) / Jadestone / Montara - PM - Maari
$124 (+4) / Brent
$123 (+4) / WTI
$105 (-2) / HSFO - APAC Average
$23.37 / Latest Stag Lifting - May
$11.11 / Latest Tapis Premium to dated Brent
Exxon/Petronas Chad/Cameroon Asset Acquisition
Tremendous timing to complete this deal:
$120/bbl - Brent Spot
$110/bbl - Brent average price since Russian Invasion of Ukraine (Feb-June/22)
$104/bbl - Brent average price YTD 2022
$92/bbl - Brent average price (Jan-Feb/22)
$71/bbl - Brent average price in 2021
$65/bbl - Base Case for the Deal (Pre + Post Acquisition)
The very large uplift in the oil price in 2022 may very likely see the net price paid for the assets reduced to circa $300m - $325m
At the average $110/bbl Brent spot price since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, if continued, would see the potential net price paid for the assets generated in FCF by the assets in just 9 months!
Upstream + Downstream FCF Generation
@ $110 Brent - $401m (+44% over $65 oil Base Case)
Upstream FCF Generation
@ $110 Brent - $252m (+95% over $65 oil Base Case)
Data taken from the Exxon/Petronas Acquisition - Investor presentation
Check out the Ad*fn site - plenty of research posted there.
I hold 1% bought in late Dec and early Jan, largely on the strength of the remarkable previous track record of the management and, performance (and potential) of the assets in their hands since taking control of the company about 18 months ago .
Sold out In late December 2020 with a modest profit, after becoming extremely uncomfortable with the investment risk after carrying out some in-depth research on Aeturnum Energy and its predecessor Sugiy Energy and, getting a friend who was based in Indonesia to do likewise.
Retained one ARS share, as I did in MPL, to retain an interest to see if there is anything I can further learn about the management and their business development decision making......with which to improve my future investment decision making.
'ARS over a barrel , either a low ball offer or just let ARS go to the wall and pick it up even cheaper as there appears to be no other suitor interested in the assets?'
I did not think it was encouraging that after a beauty parade of the assets, an indebted mid cap Indonesian coal miner proved the best, possibly only interest they had.
With respect to investment risk/reward generally, trusting my gut instinct now carries a large weighting in my equity investment decisions ......and more often than not comes out on the winning side, as I like to err on the side caution. As Warren Buffett famously stated...The first rule of equity investing is that "A return of your investment is more important than a return on it.'
Well, well, well.....The benefit of high quality research once again proves it's investment worth !
The finishing touches to the Aeturnmum scam took place in a Singapore Courtroom last week - the huge proceeds from their ARS rogering of Manini, his management shills, and sadly, long suffering shareholders laundered away long ago.
A carbon copy of the shysters previous scam at Sugiy Energy...its well documented MO was in the public domain for all who wanted to see and could be bothered to carry out even the most basic of research leg-work.
Liquidator: Aeturnum Energy International winding up application to be heard at High Court - 28th March 2022 - Singapore Manifold Times
'The winding up application of energy solutions provider Aeturnum Energy International Pte Ltd is scheduled to be heard at the High Court of Singapore in April, according to a Friday (25 March) notice on the Government Gazette.
Creditors of Aeturnum Energy International are required on or before 15 April 2022 to send in their names, addresses and full particulars of their debts or claims and the names and addresses of their solicitors (if any) to the Liquidators.'
There is no truth in the scurrilous rumour currently sweeping the Singapore financial district that Manini has forwarded a claim for a years supply of lubrication gel.
Gifts a bunch of long-con artists with a rap sheet as long as one of Harry Houdini's arms, 20% of the company at 0.9p a share, and then spends $millions of shareholders funds on 'experts' over the next year to do nothing more than inadvertently help the shysters to carry out a scam that results in a four fold dilution of shareholders investments!
With judgement like this who in their right mind would ever again invest in a company run by Manini?
' "Our work with Aeturnum to date has provided an insight into their high level of professionalism and integrity and provided us with the confidence to pursue this transaction and partner with them as major shareholders in the proposed IDX listing and development of PT WIN going forward. We now remain focused on completing due diligence and binding documentation that allows for shareholder approval." '
- Tony Manini
Asia Met's Due Diligence could have been written by Aeturnum's PR Consultants!
'Aeturnum Energy is one of the fastest growing independent energy firms in the world, delivering bespoke energy solutions to over 100 trading partners globally.
Partners include some of the most reputable companies in the energy industry, ranging from oil majors to international traders and national oil companies.
AE works collaboratively with suppliers and customers to provide integrated trading products and logistics solutions and financing services to market participants, connecting international upstream suppliers to downstream customers across Asia.
With a solid financial track record, AE has proven strong relationships with internationally recognised financial institu
9.6 million (2.06%) of transaction volume reported after the closing bell - a very large movement of shares between II's - generating the largest daily transaction volume for 5 months.
Shows the clout of the new management - the've gone from the old management's third division Nomad with a market cap of $6m to Canaccord, a global investment bank and brokerage premier league titan with a $75bn market cap, able to give Arrow with perfect timing, as it enters a period of fast growth, immediate access to a far larger and better heeled client list.
L2: No wonder Canaccord were had on the Bid all day yesterday !
Lol!
Were Petro to win the Presidential election he would enter office with his hands tied by political structures in Colombia as well as economic realities.
Centro Democratico, the right wing party of current president Iván Duque, forms part of the largest voting coalitions in both the Senate and Congress, and are likely to strike down any proposals they view as radical.
Petro has not provided any details on exactly how his plan to replace oil and gas revenues would work, nor accounted for the impact of direct foreign investment in the oil and gas private sectors.
"Going from concept to execution depends on a lot of factors beyond the presidency," said Sergio Gúzman, director of Colombia Risk Analysis, a research and consultancy firm in Bogotá. "Trying to replace that revenue stream depends also on tourism infrastructure that Colombia currently lacks."
"Are investors' fears of a Petro presidency warranted? Yes and no," said Gúzman. "For those that don't have an appetite for risk, perhaps. Mutual funds and more conservative investors might pull back. But that could also leave a lot of money on the table for less risk-averse investors who understand how Colombia really works."
Investment in Colombia, however, will still be a crucial part of the domestic economy, as will hydrocarbon technology. When the smoke and rhetoric from the election season clears, the challenge of actually governing Colombia will be much different for the victor than from the campaigning lectern.
If Petro wins, he will be facing an intransient opposition coalition in the legislative branch, a powerful Colombian business class, and the economic realities of day-to-day life.
"In some areas, this offers investment opportunities as well," said Gúzman. "If you understand Colombia at a sub-national level, you also understand that investing in the capital is very different from investing in riskier areas."
"The private sector(O&G) isn't going anywhere," he said.
Source; Mostly from S&P Global
Global Marine fuel and gas oil pricing averaged a new all-time record in March, up 349% compared to the 2020 Covid Low - the VLSFO/Brent spread also averaged a record $39/bbl.
With Brent averaging $103/bbl YTD, production expected to average a 2022 mid guidance of 17,000 bopd, OPEX dropping $3/bbl(11%) to a mid guidance $25.50/bbl, IMO 2020 and Tapis premiums averaging a combined record of $7.50/bbl YTD for Jadestone's production mix, the company's high denomination bank note printing press should be in rude health and generating record operating cash flow of circa $85/bbl YTD.
Jadestone's Stag production should currently be realising circa $128/bbl inclusive of the most recent $20/bbl regional heavy sweet premium to Brent, while the light sweet Montara and PM grades around $114/bbl inclusive of the current $6/bbl Tapis premium.
Spot Marine Fuel Oil and Major Oil Benchmark pricing/bbl (all prices rounded to nearest whole number)
$200 / Marine Gas Oil - Houston / All time record price
$189 / Marine Gas Oil - Global Average
$147 / VLSFO - Global Average
$128 / Jadestone / STAG
$114 / HSFO
$114 / Jadestone / Montara - PM - Maari
$108 / Brent
$103 / WTI
Asian demand for marine fuel oil is at an all-time record level, and driving very strong price premiums to Brent for both light and heavy sweet crudes.
At the estimated $110.5/bbl average realised price YTD of Jadestone's blended production, management guided mid range 2022 Production and OPEX, Jadestone should be realising (on an annualised basis):
$542m/yr - Operating cash flow(pre Capex & PM Profit Share)
$705m/yr - Revenue
$573m - Current market cap
Completion of the Maari acquisition in late H1/2022(in addition to a circa $75-$80m net consideration cheque) would increase the annual cash flow and revenue generation to:
$643m/yr - Operating Cash Flow
$836m/yr - Revenue
AIMHO/DYOR
Colombian presidential hopeful seeks to ease oil sector fears - BN Americas
A leading candidate for Colombia's upcoming presidential election has pledged to continue promoting investments in oil and gas if he is voted into power, amid fears for the industry's future.
Former Medellín mayor Federico Gutiérrez said calls to halt exploration projects were irresponsible and jeopardized the country's economic wellbeing.
"Some populist and authoritarian [candidates] have claimed that they would stop oil exploration the day after winning the election," Gutiérrez, who is one of five aspirants running for the right-wing Equipo por Colombia ticket, told newspaper Portafolio.
"This is untrue and irresponsible. Oil represents more than 30% of exports, and thanks to its profits, its revenue accounts for almost 12% of social programs."
Leading the push to end drilling and accelerate renewable power development is former Bogotá mayor Gustavo Petro of the leftist Pacto Histórico coalition. The 61-year-old is the current frontrunner with 27% of the intended vote, according to the latest survey by independent pollster Centro Nacional de Colombia.
"Stopping [hydrocarbon] exploration would imply ending those [social] programs and would leave people in misery," Gutiérrez said.
"My proposal is for a responsible energy transition. I will continue to improve the wind and solar energy implementation processes and I will also be very responsible with all oil and gas extraction projects, so they meet social and environmental specifications. Without oil and gas there is no energy transition. We have a responsibility with climate change but the [future of oil and gas] cannot be cut short."
The Colombian economy's heavy dependence on crude oil revenue was highlighted well when, even in 2020, a year where oil prices plunged into negative territory and Brent averaged just $41.96 per barrel, it still accounted for 17% of fiscal revenue and 28% of export earnings.
Before the late-2014 oil price collapse from $100/bbl, the economic importance of crude oil was even greater. It generated over a fifth of government revenue, and more than 60% of Colombia’s exports by value.
Colombia's Covid ravaged economy contracted by nearly 7% in 2021. A cash-strapped Bogota urgently needed to reactivate the energy sector, by attracting additional investment, as at the current rate of production, which averaged around 736,000 barrels/d in 2021, Colombia only has sufficient proven crude oil reserves for 6.3 years.
In 2021, the Government introduced a package of new measures to encourage more investment in the sector, as the Nation's dire hydrocarbon shortage was weighing heavily on the petroleum-dependent economy. Crude oil is easily Colombia’s largest legal export by value, accounting for $12 billion or 33% of all exports for the first 11 months of 2021, earning roughly a fifth of government revenue.
The Colombian Petroleum and Gas Association estimates 2022 investment in hydrocarbon operations will reach $4.4 billion, which is 47% greater than 2021 and more than double 2020. While that investment is equivalent to 2019 the ACP anticipates that 2022 exploration spending will exceed $1.1 billion which, if that eventuates, will be the largest amount spent on oil and gas exploration in Colombia since 2014.
In January 2022, the energy ministry announced that it had awarded 30 blocks to six energy companies as part of Colombia’s 2021 bid round. The contracts are expected to generate an investment of at least $148 million.
These developments point to a fast improving outlook for Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector.
And strongly suggests that as in Peru, where one Presidential candidate was also suggesting a similar O&G exploration ban policy, when push came to shove, he soon changed his mind when it became a deal breaker to his candidacy when he was unable to explain where the huge lost revenues for social programmes were going to come from.
In my view, there is more chance of Gustavo Petro winning the Grand National riding side saddle on a Shetland pony than getting elected President in Colombia with a policy that puts an industry that generates circa 20% of Government revenue and potentially more than 60% of its export earnings at $100 Brent at risk.
AIMHO/DYOR
Ref: Maari .......At worst, the reserve release will not have done any harm - nor will the recent switch by the West to improve their energy security.