Member Info for MikeS02

Huge thanks for sharing Troajan and EXACTLY what I was looking for!! Interestingly Deutsche was the first broker group 'out off the stalls' so to speak during Summer with regards a positive note with regards our stock and as such, very happy that they've increased their price to £9 - definitely gives me confidence into the short and medium term - let's hope a number of other 'quality' analysts follow with their recommendations!!

Hi all,

Been away for a few days and just arrived back in the UK.

Lovely to see where the SP has got to right now, albeit for the 'real action' to happen, believe quite strongly that we need several analysts to come out and strongly upgrade to 'strong buy' and/or 'add to their conviction buy list' as shared in one of my posts last Wednesday.

Quite often analysts come out the day after major results announcements, but clearly not this time.

So hopefully some may come out this week and let's see - as others have mentioned, I'm hoping and expecting to be £7+ by the end of December and then TERP at around the £8.50 mark around the Q1 2024 results and our AGM day on the 13th February 2024.

Undoubtedly let's see, but hoping and believing that a strong base has formed and there will be no more 'silly's' of dropping below the £6 mark - as we all know, there's still huge value in our SP - we simply need some 'analyst backers' to step up to the mark like they did for CCC back in the Spring/Summertime. GLA

Hi Daz423,

Whilst being announced today, still a decent while away, with it being brought to a vote at our AGM on the 13th February 2024 I believe - then if voted to proceed, the company would then have to lay out a timeline for it to actually happen - have no idea how long that would take, but my sense is anywhere between a month to 3 months.

There would be no way that you would lose your shares, as they belong to you as an investor. All that would happen, is that all shares would be valued in euros, which those currently traded in Frankfurt already are - so in effect, the value of your shares would be in euros and not sterling.

IF this happened, you'd simply need to ensure that your broker or whomever holds your shares for you, allows Frankfurt trading - my sense is pretty much every broker would allow this, but some banks may have some restrictions etc - if those that hold your shares don't allow trading in Frankfurt, you'd simply have to arrange to transfer your shares to a new broker who would allow this trading.

So all in all, certainly nothing to worry about and you'll have plenty time to check things out etc - hope this helps

Hi all,

At LONG last, a decent day, although with my musings last Friday and yesterday, I was hoping for the SP to get to £6.50 today, so wrong there!

Also high on the EBIT side in my thinking ahead of the results, but guess trebling them yr on yr is no mean feat!

What I'm now interested in as I'm still hoping and believing that by the end of the week, we'll be near to if not ahead of the £7 mark, is what analysts come out with tomorrow.

I know everyone has mixed feelings on analysts, as I do too, but they 'do' help to move SP's up and down - the benchmark I'd use is CCL, which pretty much had all of it's significant SP rise back in the Spring/early Summer off the back of an analysts day and analysts significantly upgrading its stock.

That's simply what I'm hoping for tomorrow and Friday - analysts significantly upgrading and adding us to their buy/conviction lists.

One final one from me and that will be it - I still struggle with our valuation vs say EZJ (only use them as they've also very recently declared results) - so EZJ has an mcap of c£3.6B as of now and whilst we have one at £2.9B, whilst we produce more than double their EBIT and 2.5x their sales?? Go figure? Based on their mcap valuation, we should at least be £7.50 per share and just to equalise.

As I say, really hoping that this opens the door to significant upgrades and hence continuing upside in our SP - GLA

For what it's worth, if the business hits the figures I suggested in my post, strongly believe tomorrow will see a jump of at least 30% and why not - I'm looking for tomorrow to finish off at higher than £6.50 a share and then with next day significant upgrades by analysts, finishing the week at at least £7.50. If they deliver an EBIT of c1.2 Billion euros,. then clearly the business CANNOT sit at a valuation of just 2.5 Billion euros - right now and based on the 320 million they posted last year for EBIT, valuation is some 8x - as I say, if they get to near 1.2 Billion, then in reality and based on their current valuation, the SP should be double digit!!

Tomorrow is a new day and let's see - GLA

Hi all,

Apologies, but doesn't look as though the link is working - so copied as below and hope it helps:

TUI AG: TUI updates dividend policy effective for dividend payouts from 2021 onwards (933405)

11/12/2019 10:01am

UK Regulatory (RNS & others)

TUI AG (TUI)

TUI AG: TUI updates dividend policy effective for dividend payouts from 2021

onwards

11-Dec-2019 / 11:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside information

according to REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR), transmitted by EQS Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

Hanover, 11.12.2019. TUI's Executive Board, with the Supervisory Board's

approval, has today decided to update the Group's dividend policy as one

element of TUI's revised capital allocation framework. The new policy will

be applied for the first time for Financial Year 2020 (1 October 2019 - 30

September 2020), i.e. for dividend payments from 2021 onwards.

For Financial Year 2019 (1 October 2018 - 30 September 2019), we will submit

a dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting scheduled for 11 February

2020 of &euro0.54 per share, which remains in line with our current dividend

policy (dividend per share growth in line with Underlying EBITA¹ at constant

currency).

From Financial Year 2020 onwards, the Group's dividend policy will change as

follows:

- a core dividend payout of 30 - 40% of the Group's Underlying EAT2 with

- a dividend floor (minimum payout) of &euro0.35 per share.

While the new dividend policy is expected to result in lower payouts, the

dividend floor guarantees shareholders a minimum payout irrespective of the

market environment of the tourism industry and subsequent impacts on

Underlying EAT2. Based on TUI's share price at the end of Financial Year

2019, the dividend floor would represent a dividend yield of 3.3% p.a.

The new dividend policy is one element of TUI's updated capital allocation

framework which reflects our financial priorities as follows:

(i) Organic growth

(ii) Payout of a core dividend

(iii) Accretive Mergers & Acquisitions and portfolio optimisation

(iv) Excess cash to be returned to shareholders

At the same time we are disciplined in maintaining a solid balance sheet and

keep our target gross leverage ratio comfortably within the range of 3.0x -

2.25x.

This updated capital allocation framework will provide TUI Group with

increased flexibility as it facilitates investments in our strategic

initiatives and future growth opportunities, as well as an attractive

dividend to shareholders, underpinned by a solid and robust financial

structure.

Hi all,

Having not posted in quite a while, I thought I'd share current thinking on next Wednesday's results.

So here goes:

1. EBIT has been promised by the BOD's all year to show a significant rise.

Currently, full year EBIT forecasts are in the 935-981 million range for FY23 from what I can see

We know from the Q9 results, that the company posted Q4 FY22 EBIT figures of 1,039 Billion euros and against that figure, they stated that they were 'promising' a significant uplift to that. In my thinking, a strong result would be a 10-20% increase, with significant being 30% plus? We also know, because every single company that has posted in the last month or two has shown top end results for their airlines and as to be expected, this is also the biggest player for profits within Tui too and so expecting a 50% uplift on this particular item

So, for me, I'm expecting underlying EBIT to come in the region of 1,407 Billion euros, BUT need to take off the 9 month YTD of -226 million and which gives a FY23 underlying EBIT of 1,181 Billion euros which will be 20-25% up on the above forecasts, which if true, will 'buzz' our SP. By the way, I know there's a difference between underlying EBIT and EBIT itself, although recently, the numbers are very close and therefore I feel that the EBIT figure itself will also be at this level - there or thereabout. For comparison, EBIT for EZJ came in at 476 million for FY23

2. We know that following the Summer wildfires, that Tui was the ONLY company that I know of, who extended holidays available in some of their key markets through to the end of November 2023 and as such, I have little doubt that they will 'sing' about a great start to 2024 - clearly know that Egypt will have been affected, but like EZJ, it's small beer so to speak and as such, will easily be accommodated in the figures. Additionally, I'm certain they will also 'sing' about their increased capacity for 2024 and how that will drive increased revenue and profitability - remember back in Spring of this year, they announced 1 MILLION more flight seats for the UK 2024 holiday season alone

3. Finally - dividend - just for clarity and in case you don't know, the company cannot pay a divi FY23, as it was part of the agreement for the RI back in April this year. That said, I actually believe it's great that the company is holding on to all of the profits and investing them; paying down more debt at this time. What I am hoping for though, is that they will reintroduce the dividend policy last updated in 2020 for 2024 - see link below. If they do reintroduce at that level, it will be approximately 7x the EZJ dividend and a cut above.

This week, we missed out a bit, as all airlines did well - but, no surprises, as all the others have reported whilst we haven't - so roll on next Wednesday. Truly believe that if the above is delivered, we'll get to TERP very quickly indeed - GLA

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/tui-TUI/share-news/TUI-AG-TUI

Affmaead,

Think it's been quiet because EZJ has pretty much declared all of the important numbers.

The divi will be between 2-3p.

The major 'surprises' will be in what the BOD declares ref Capex spending over the next 3 years and of course any update on this Q's trading - but that will be it - so pending any significant surprises, which of course could happen ref the above, Tuesday may well be one of the most muted for the company this year - of course not long to wait and we'll soon see - GLA

Just wading in a little to ask that you be a little bit more respectful of those who've lost LOADS of money so far and who don't have any 'spare' cash. Whilst I get your enthusiasm and excitement as I'm not a holder of this stock, there are loads on this bb, who may well like a little bit of courtesy in terms of maybe not 'shouting out' your trades so much. As I shared many months ago, this is NOT in a normal market right now after the RI and likely not for many many months to come, as it is totally controlled and indeed manipulated by the ii's and mm's. They have the shares; the money and the power to basically do what they want and when they want, so in reality discussing sp is simply a bit of a lost cause in my opinion.

Just sharing and of course it's only my thinking, but as I say maybe 'calm' the rhetoric

Hi Crossley,

Many thanks for your Q - so I used to be invested in NatWest Bank, but sold my holding in 2022.

In April this year, I invested in Tui and following their RI - so like many investors, I'm in the 'mire' no doubts about that and just so you know.

The reason for checking back into PSN and others from time to time, is that when I was looking for an investment opportunity early 2023, PSN was amongst a basket of options and it's as simple as that - hope this helps Mike.

As with many investors, we move around from time to time and that's my intention into 2024 and so will keep checking into PSN amongst others in the coming months - as mentioned in my original posting - think it's far too early ref HB's, but clearly at some time, the bottom of the cycle will hit and then, I'll certainly appraise accordingly

Hi all,

Is it me, or is the current shape of the SP, ie rising quite nicely and indeed quickly, EXACTLY what happened last time on the run up to results from PSN and only to take a huge hit on the day.

Because I have to be honest, that's exactly what I'm expecting on the 7th - let's be honest, ALL of the HB's have released weak results in recent weeks and we all know that PSN is the worst affected by FTB's and building association homes isn't in their business model, so hit from all angles.

I certainly expect them to be the weakest of the lot and as such, the SP will be hit hard - clearly MM's etc are simply helping and very happy to drive the SP higher and only to make a tidy packet next Tuesday and when everyone else, ie retail investors have nowhere to go!

I really hope the I'm wrong for all you investors, but...........as I say batten down

Selangore,

What you've posted is quite a bit out of date and has been in the business domain for about two weeks now and just so you know

Hi kingalf,

Afraid NO ONE would touch NWB with a bargepole and certainly not whilst the government still owns 39% of the stock - they're by themselves for MANY years to come and unfortunately floundering seems to be in their DNA

Hi Nick,

Whilst you quote the UK debt correctly, you need to put it into context - the US has debt of $39 TRILLION and growing and many European countries have debt equal to or greater than 100% GDP, whilst I believe ours is closer to 90%. So in the round, we're simply doing what loads and loads of countries have done in the last two decades. Not to say that there won't be a comeuppance, because undoubtedly there will be, BUT then of course central banks will simply print MORE money and as such, NO government will actually go bust - just look at what happened with Covid - if there was a time for countries to possibly go bust, it was then and basically all that happened was that central banks printed lots of lovely dosh! I know, the world is upside down, but it's how it is right now and assuming so for the future too

Pat2014 - If I had a 'clue' what you were saying I'd be able to comment back - are you on something?

Hi all,

Today is clearly a difficult day for all NWB investors - I held the shares for about 14 years but sold out entirely last year.

From time to time though I do drop back in to this BB too see how things are going; commentary etc etc.

Only wanted to share one thing, which right now is being overlooked, but not for long is my thinking and that is with regards the government holding of stock, which I believe is still at 39% ish.

Now clearly at these extremely low prices, the government will not be selling any more shares in the near to medium term and of course this raises the very likelihood that let's say a third of stock will still be government held when it comes to the next GE and my goodness, what indeed then happens if and when Labour come into power!!?? You have to think, not good stuff and may they even go as far as converting the bank into a socialist type of banking which basically is there to do the bidding of the governments whims etc etc. The one thing I think will be much greater under Labour, is that they WILL have their fingers in the NWB pie.

Just wanted to share as part of the discussion

Hi all,

Hope you're well, albeit in a down market, things I know aren't great and certainly for me too, albeit not in the housing market.

What I'm coming through for though, are thoughts back on why you all still feel positive about PSN in the coming weeks and months - I know some or maybe all of the positivity will simply be because you're invested and no one likes to think SP's will go much lower and if that's the case, I totally understand - but here's the thing:

In recent weeks, updates by ALL the HB's has been dire let's be honest, with a number cutting capacity already and that's before the horrible Autumn and Winter seasons.

So what I'm struggling with is that surely PSN's update on the 7th November, will be pretty awful and worse than previously thought - why, because ALL of the HB's updating recently have said FTB's have pretty much fallen off a cliff and PSN relies on these to a much greater degree than any other HB and a number of them are moving over their business models to accommodate Housing Association to help bolster their business models - something I don't believe PSN is able to or wants to do and hence why numbers and the next few months will be the most dire of the lot?

I totally understand that this is only my thinking and not being in the market, I of course may be missing lots, but would genuinely appreciate any thoughts back on the points raised - Many thanks

Have to say the 'fool guy' is exactly that, and I give NO credence to him whatsoever.

So his final commentary is..... if the price continues to slide I'll strongly consider opening a position - GET A LIFE you idiot and as if ANYONE gives a damn!!

Hi Hopan,

It's simply down to the fact that the RI brought in 140 million new shares and giving a total of approx 163 million shares in circulation today - based on Thursday's close of £1.915 gives you the valuation quoted.

If you were expecting an increase in valuation via the RI itself, whilst very few companies instigating an RI can actually increase, it's simply down to the fact that the vast majority of those raising RI's 'need' the cash and as such, they are seen as weak and as such, most tend to be deserted by investors and at least until they can show that their business is turning a corner, which unfortunately can take years to show up - hope this helps

Hi candidinvestor,

What you're forgetting of course, is that from a Company point of view, everything is GREAT, because they got the RI to happen and they've banked their monies - it's left to the shareholders to lose out, which they have/and are clearly doing - the curse of RI's!!