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Hi all,
Hope you're very well.
So a hugely interesting day today eh, with probably all of us thinking that our shares would slide etc etc and based on the Israel/Iran news. So all in all, a decent day and particularly that I thought there would be some significant selling towards the end of trade and ahead of the weekend - as this didn't materialise, you have to think that investors have got the message that that's it 'right now' from Israel and Iran and more normal trading can resume again into next week.
As such and because of the pressure put on our shares over the last 8 trading days, I'm hoping and expecting a good 'bounce' into next week - I would certainly expect us to quickly get back to at least £6.50 by the end of the week and hopefully beyond, with many sellers now 'washed out' of the stock.
Have a terrific weekend and GLA
Hi Trisor,
As I've suggested a few times to others too, please wait until Tui confirm all relevant next steps - as an investor, you will get full details like all of us 'direct from them'. Suggest this will come out with the Half Year results on the 15th May 2024, so please watch out then and hope this helps
Hi SK,
Many thanks for coming back and please rest assured, I certainly meant no disrespect whatsoever in challenging your thinking yesterday and in recent posts - I was genuinely interested in your motivation for posting.
Clearly like all posters and including myself, your views are very welcome, although what I was trying to share yesterday was the fact that within your posts from time to time, you seem to 'flip flop'. So take your response and posts yesterday - you clearly believe that the UK economy will tank and yet you still share that you may re-invest in Tui?
I do remember when you supported the guy who had been scammed and I'm sure that meant a lot accordingly.
I'm 'not' for closing down comments in any way - was simply trying to share that for me anyways, your posts in recent times seem to flip flop and I was trying to understand why
GLA
SK,
Can you please share what you're trying to achieve with your posts?
They're repetitive and frankly WAY off pitch - as an example - weren't you saying just a couple of months ago that we were sliding into deep recession when the BOE etc had already said that we'd come out of recession in January and indeed we have - see what I mean and that's just a small example?
So from your posts, I'm assuming you want our SP to tank; lots of posters here to lose loads of money and for you to get a gold star - is that it?
You should reflect on what you're saying; why and the timing - our SP right now is under pressure because of what's happening in the Middle East - THAT'S IT - as are all other travel stocks too - oh and interesting too that you went to ground when our SP went up to £6.82 last week and which was nearly over 60p what you sold out of, from memory?
Maybe just think a bit and have a bit of respect for those going through some difficult times with their investment in recent days
Hi all,
I know that some have posted about ourselves being somewhat of an 'outlier' with regards SP decline in recent days - did a quick look last night and the range of declines from the highs of early last week to end of play yesterday, range from -10% both IAG and EZJ; -11% Jet2 ; ourselves -15% and up to -17% for Wizz - so simply sharing as most probably expect, that broadly speaking, we're all in the same boat and hope it helps.
EZJ reporting Half Year results tomorrow and if we're lucky, Jet2 may issue a full year trading statement too - both of which should be positive and may well help lift the sector collectively
GLA
Hi all,
Can't lie - Just like most if not all of you, found the lats 4 days trade, absolutely horrendous - so much so that I very nearly sold out myself late yesterday afternoon and which hasn't been in my thinking even when we got as low as under £4 last year (although interestingly, that drop below £4 and down to £3.75 was a ONE DAY movement only and we never got below £4 ever again!)
I guess that's why I didn't sell in the end - because I bought into this stock in April 2023, believing that it was a strong recovery play, which had a decent way to run and I still do!
So early last week, we were motoring really well and until the whole debacle of Israel and Iran entered the play.
If Israel does indeed retaliate in an aggressive way and they get into a huge escalation with Iran, then we have to accept the stock trading at £5, if not slightly below for a period of time - but here's the thing - IF Israel actually listen to the West and those that helped them last weekend, then their retaliation way be very well controlled and which doesn't lead to any further escalation and of course, for which I'm hoping. If that materialises, believe strongly that the stock will get back to its high of £6.82 just as quickly as it fell.
Bottom line for me though - certainly at this moment in time - is that I still believe there are 'riches' in this stock and for now, I'm firmly remaining invested.
GLA
Hi all,
Well like many I was certainly surprised and to be honest, pretty shocked at the scale of the response by Iran.
However, let's be honest, there has been this 'build up' in recent days and as such, provided Israel simply 'accepts' this retaliation, then you have to think that this particular 'saga' is put to bed and if so and it remains stable for the next 24 hours, then as some have shared below, our shares and indeed all travel shares should at least see stability into next week, if not a decent rise back to where it was earlier last week ie around the £6.77 level and the high of the last 12 months.
Additionally, with Easyjet making their Half Year announcement this coming Thursday, which undoubtedly will be strong I'm sure, then should be a good catalyst too
GLA
Hiya,
Sorry for this follow up message, but should have mentioned too, that there would be NO benefit at all with regards the SP by converting 'early', as of course whatever the opening SP is on the 24th June 2024, ALL shares will be converted to that value in euros accordingly - just want to share that too if it helps
Hi SS and email,
Hope you're both very well.
I've been saying this for a while now, so apologies to those who pretty much know what I'm about to say:
So my advice to you both, would be to wait until the see the details DIRECTLY from Tui. ii are being particularly naughty in contacting you, as NO broker has any information right now and they will get instructions directly from Tui just as us investors will too. So please DO NOT get caught up in any nonsense ahead of the correct information coming out and directly from Tui.
I totally realise the energy in wanting to get this sorted, but rest assured, you won't 'miss the bus' so to speak by waiting.
My sense is that the instructions will come out alongside the Half Year results on the 15th May 2024, which is now only just over a month away.
My final point about doing nothing ahead of comms from Tui, is that it is pretty much guaranteed that Tui will pick up any costs from the brokers associated with the conversion of our shares into euros - do it yourself and away from the company instruction and undoubtedly you yourself will pick up relevant charges etc
Hope this helps and GLA
Hi Garonne,
Sort of agree with your view - if I'm honest, I stick with Reuters reporting as they seem to be the most accurate and rather than the other 'frenzied' nonsense that is called news by other organisations and including the pathetic BBC.
So why travel stocks have been hit 'again' this pm, is that the BBC is reporting that they've 'been told' that Iran will imminently launch a tirade of rockets and drones against Israel!!??
As I say, read the Reuters link below which was posted yesterday and for me anyways, MUCH, MUCH more believable and more in line with your thinking.......
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-aims-contain-fallout-israel-response-wont-be-hasty-sources-say-2024-04-11/
Hi iParsnip,
I totally agree - BUT - the one piece of news which should help manage the 'stress' is that the whole travel sector has been hit hard today and really through the 'stupid media' quoting that Iran will imminently hit something! So as the sector in totality has been hit hard today, you can pretty much guarantee in a day or two or three, it will bounce back when this pathetic saga has either occurred or it doesn't happen in the first place
GLA
Hi Dathrilla; talkin and aspers,
Dathrilla - Many thanks for your Q and no, I now don't expect a business update ahead of the Half Year results in mid May 2024 - why - because we are now in their 'closed period' and it looks like Tui really adheres to this period where they don't disclose any further business information and ahead of the planned release.
If there is sense to be made of not posting last week, my assumption is the news yesterday of moving to the Prime Listing scenario 'trumped' such news and I guess for the BOD, yesterday's news was a big deal for them.
Mind you, what would be the odds that the BOD now updates later this week eh!!?? Genuinely don't believe they will
Hi talkin and aspers - So my assumption ref 'full news' on the delisting side of things ref the 24th June, will come our way at the Half Year results on the 15th May 2024. Assuming by then, Tui will have made all of the relevant comms and options through to our brokers and indeed, will be able to share likely broker costs to Tui of completing all of this over the weekend between the 21st - 24th June 2024
Hope this helps and GLA
Hi Marcinkus,
Many thanks for sharing.
Yes, as expected and previously shared, the Group is unable to pay a divi without 'completing' the KfW facility.
As we know, this has already come down from the 1.1 Billion in place at the end of last year and because of them issuing the sustainability bond last month.
So nothing to say that they can't and won't issue another bond in the coming months, which will clear the facility in totality and open up the gates for a divi - have to say, that I'd be hugely surprised if this doesn't happen in the coming months and a divi paid in December's full year results statement for 2024 - if not, then 2025 is pretty much guaranteed!
Also, taking a quick look at the main holders of stock - pretty much like what I see (not so sure about Goldman, but sure everyone has an opinion on them) and shared a while ago, that I particularly like Helikon as a main shareholder, who basically exists to find stocks around the world which offer 'huge value' and they then invest accordingly - from memory, think they took their position in the middle of last year, so clearly a great asset for them!
GLA
Hi Stiperstones,
Just one other thing to share if I may - so I follow Simply WallStreet, as I find their analysis often pretty good, although as with any analysis, you have to take much with a pinch of salt etc etc.
So just for your ref, right now, they have a fair price value for Tui of £9.95 and reporting that the average analyst 1 year price is £9.49 - I'll take either of these as I'm sure most posters will to!
GLA and have a terrific weekend
Oh and sorry for raising any expectations ref Tui announcements - disappointed to say the least, but hey, assume we'll have good news to look forward to, as and when they decide to share
Hi all,
I'm not a holder of CCL stock, but pop in to read the posts from time to time.
Do have a genuine Q though - can anyone tell me and maybe others too, why on earth CCL doesn't hedge their oil purchases?
To me, seems a pretty basic need in the travel industry and genuinely interested and maybe why CCL certainly currently, taking a bigger hit than most?
Many thanks
Hi Stiperstones,
Many thanks for posting and always welcome new analysis.
Guess my thinking would be:
Interesting that analysts rarely follow company guidance and for that I don't blame them, as Tui hasn't had a great record in the past, but in the last 18 months or so, they've clearly learned and during that time have beaten forecasts accordingly.
So at the end of last year when they presented their results, they stated that revenue for 2024 would increase by at least 10% and much more importantly to me, profits, would increase by AT LEAST 25% - and I put the last bit in capitals, because they did too and they reiterated that position at the Q1 results.
Morgan Stanley, when they upgraded the stock in February 2024, actually stated that they thought that the profit number growth was conservative and based on the Q1 results, they only had to grow profits by another 8% in the rest of the year, to deliver the 25% growth - hope that makes sense!
Finally and as you will have read numerous times, when the RI happened last March/April, the company valuation at that time, the TERP should have been £8.30. Now clearly for that to materialise, investors need the confidence to take the SP to that level, but for me, I have every confidence that Q2 numbers will be strong when they publish next month and it wouldn't be a surprise if they raise guidance too, and especially on the profit number growth.
Clearly just my thinking and GLA
Hi Dathrilla,
So interesting Q and have checked back and for whatever reason, last year looks like the only time they released information specifically about Easter and of course some further information on how Summer was doing etc etc. Looking at the comms, which you can view in the link below, it may well have been that they were able to quote that they were taking 500k customers abroad, which of course is a decent 'round number'.
https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/press-releases/2023/2023-04-06-tui-easter-holidays-2023-customers-prefer-sunshine-destinations
Before that of course you wouldn't expect anything between 2020 and 2022 and because of Covid etc.
2019 didn't have anything because in March of that year the MAX jets had all be grounded and so at that time is was all about getting in extra capacity and dealing with the 'panic' caused at that time
Couldn't see anything at all in 2018, but in both 2017 and 2016, they actually released a 'pre-closing statement' at the end of March sharing how things had progressed for the Winter and how Summer was progressing too.
So they've certainly used different methods over the years, but all comms complicated by Covid and the grounding of the MAX jets. Guess, we'll just have to see, but still hoping that they will issue an update of sorts in the next couple of days - that said, could of course be complicated this month by the Premier Listing scenario within Frankfurt and of course the delisting scenario too, so may simply decide to leave it all to the Half Year announcement - for me, hoping not and will be disappointed if 'no news'
Hope this helps and GLA