Member Info for MikeS02

Shorts have hit just under 11%!

Hi sparhawk - the issue will be will Iran STOP? They've actually got the US and Israel by the curlies currently and indeed the world with regards the Strait of Hormuz - they can keep the fear going of hitting tankers etc for many months and simply based on the use of drones - rest assured I think they will extract a heavy price from the US to actually stop and especially if the oil price continues to rise and also if the son of the previous Supreme Leader is voted as his successor, which is looking very likely

Hi all,

Just to help - just put my Q into the AI chatbot and it returns the following:

So a reduction to 200% from its current 217% would release £1.16 Billion; whilst reducing it to 180% would release £2.53 Billion - this is based on last year's Half Year result and it states that for every 1% change in the solvency ratio is equivalent to £68.5 million and hence the numbers above.

So clearly not small amounts and as I say, would be great for anyone else to share their thinking and whether these figures make sense

Best regards and GLA ahead of next Wednesday's results

Hi NSC,

Yes, have read his blog and totally agree with his sentiments - let's hope that our FD does too eh! Best regards

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well and just asking for some feedback please - Meconopsis, we know you've worked in the field, so thoughts from yourself, would be great too

So looking at Admiral's and Aviva's results today, they both have their solvency II ratio below 200% - Aviva at 180% and Admiral at 193%, whilst we're at 217%.

My Q is what if we were to go that way - so for instance, could there be a special dividend paid next Wednesday? Could more be put into the buy back programme for this year, although of course 1.2 Billion is already pretty chunky. Of course I totally understand that such monies may go into growing the business, which again, would be great too, although you would have thought if this was the avenue, they wouldn't have committed 1 Billion from the recent sale to the buy back programme?

Reducing the solvency cover could release some significant monies, but how much?

So my Q is - what would reducing the solvency cover to 200% release and what would a reduction to 180% release.

We have a newly appointed FD and as such, could be the opportune time to do this - so any comments would be very welcome and best regards

Hi both, Hope you're very well although I understand it's going to be a very tough week for investors.

Just thought I'd share below though, as for me, this is the bigger issue starting tomorrow:

Watch out for the 'R' word breaking out early in the week - recession - because if and when Wall Street banks or so called analysts suggest that an oil price above $100 could cause a recession across the world, then this will be the significant hit to all shares - just look at last year's trump tariffs - the 'R' word was mentioned pretty much immediately causing shares to tank - so for instance CCL tanked 50% within a couple of weeks as pretty much did other tourism related stocks etc.

Iran is playing a clever game of 'fear' - they're using very few missiles - maybe because they don't have many - but the fear they are instilling is very clever and it's the fear and the potential for more that will drive up the oil price considerably from tomorrow.

Also, please remember that if oil does indeed go through the $100 mark and sits there for a bit of time, prices at our fore-courts will spike too and very quickly - can already see prices towards £2 per litre and remember how that felt just a few short years ago.

Trump and Netanyahu have a very simple agenda - regime change and decimation of the weapons - can't see them having any agenda when it comes to the 'R' word rearing its ugly head!

Hi Garydav2,

Hope you're very well - If I'm honest, I think tomorrow for many and including big ii's which let's be honest make or break things these days, will be a 'sell' as much as we can as soon as we can and as such, think the figures you quote will be broken and much more so if things continue for the full week and beyond

Hi Betterlife20,

Many thanks for sharing and hope you're very well. Also reading that Insurance companies are cancelling insurance for shipment through the Strait of hormuz and/or increasing premiums by 50%, which is likely the bigger issue for oil shipments in the near term and likely why so many are parked up

Hi Betterlife20,

Many thanks for sharing and hope you're very well. Also reading that Insurance companies are cancelling insurance for shipment through the Strait of hormuz and/or increasing premiums by 50%, which is likely the bigger issue for oil shipments in the near term and likely why so many are parked up

Hi all,

Some interesting posts!

I've deliberately used the 'R' word in the title, because if and when Wall Street banks or so called analysts suggest that an oil price above $100 could cause a recession across the world, then this will be the significant hit to all shares - just look at last year's trump tariffs - the 'R' word was mentioned pretty much immediately causing shares to tank - so for instance CCL tanked 50% within a couple of weeks as pretty much did other tourism related stocks etc.

As shard yesterday, Iran is playing a clever game of 'fear' - they're using very few missiles - maybe because they don't have many - but the fear they are instilling is very clever and it's the fear and the potential for more that will drive up the oil price considerably from tomorrow.

Also, please remember that if oil does indeed go through the $100 mark and sits there for a bit of time, prices at our fore-courts will spike too and very quickly - can already see prices towards £2 per litre and remember how that felt just a few short years ago.

Trump and Netanyahu have a very simple agenda - regime change and decimation of the weapons - can't see them having any agenda when it comes to the 'R' word rearing its ugly head!

So as expected, Iran is letting all relevant parties know that the Strait of Hormuz is closed! Clearly a big spike in oil on Monday and wouldn't be surprised it if gets to $100 next week

Hi BB,

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts - my only share back, is that Reuters about two weeks ago reported that Iran have about 5000 naval mines that it could launch from small fast boats in the Strait of Hormuz at any time - as we all know, the worst thing that the US and Israel etc is underestimate Iran and how desperate it might get if things go America's and Israel's way. Think we also know that if even Iran threatened the use of mines in the Strait, it would effectively close that route pretty much immediately and until diplomacy resolved things - Greece this morning has ordered all of it's ships thinking of using the Strait to stop with immediate effect and they say the Strait is already closed for their ships

Hi all,

Just thought I'd join the conversation - I had shares in Tui for 3 years and sold out last December, so have a bit of knowledge about how the ups and certainly the downs can play out.

Whilst clearly all of the airlines/tourism/cruise businesses will be hit hard on Monday, it really all depends on how things develop - you have to think that crude will spike at least 10% on Monday and then again what then happens to that too as the week progresses.

Iran has two things it could do to really hit the world economies hard - they could start hitting oil facilities across the Middle East, but of course then risk having their own facilities hit too, which for Iran would likely pretty much bankrupt them OR and possibly more likely they could mine the Start of Hormuz, which would stop 20% of the world oil moving through the Strait in its tracks - whilst these two options are clearly terrible options for Iran itself, I have to say that if they ultimately have their backs against the wall, I certainly wouldn't put it past them as a last ditch moment - if either of these happen in reality, travel shares will be 'decimated' in the short term

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

The drop in the last couple of days, is undoubtedly tied to what Trump might do in Iran - ie go in for regime change. The military have announced this morning, that they are pretty much set up as required, although in 10 days time is when everything is fully in place. The tricky, is what Iran might do to the Strait off hormuz - clearly they are weaker after last year's attack by the US and Israel, but the Strait of Hormuz is their golden ticket really and what they do with it - let's be honest, if Trump attacks, it's because he wants regime change and if so, the regime have nothing to lose with going all out! They supposedly have 5000 naval mines and these can be easily offloaded from small, fast boats. 20% of world oil flows through the strait each and every day and so if they mined it or indeed threatened to bomb ships in the strait and in effect close it, then analysts believe the oil price could spike to $150 a barrel - can you imagine!!? So believe it's this uncertainty and Trump's pre-occupation and almost obsession with Iran that is undoubtedly stoking investors reluctance in travel/tourism stocks - just a thought to share

Hmmm, Just reading a few comments about Iran being totally useless - they may be. BUT they can always close the straight of Hormuz - rest assured, that's their golden ticket - they could either threaten to bomb ships going through the strait and in effect closing it, or much more likely they could mine it like they did in the 1980's, causing chaos at the time! it's believed they have 5000 naval mines which can be deployed off the back of fast moving ships. So whilst they may well have lost their 'power' - if their back is against the wall, they could wreak havoc on the 20% of world oil that flows through the Strait each and every day - estimates believe that if they did that, oil could spike to $150!! Also a final point - if Trump does indeed go in, with the intention of changing regime, then of course the 'top' have nothing to lose - again, with backs against the wall..........it certainly won't be pretty and just thought I'd share

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well and just to add a couple of things to the conversation:

1. The ex-Divi date has been announced - it's the 23rd April - indeed if you go on the Financial Calendar on the L&G site, everything you need to know about the Dividend dates for the whole of 2026 are there

2. There's a strong line of resistance to our SP sitting at 2.72 and it's why in recent days, we've approached 2.75 and then retraced below. Would be brilliant if we can hold above this level today and the next two closes and then hopefully onwards and upwards

GLA

Hi Sanyo86,

So had a few minutes and was intrigued by your q ref results days and the SP - so put the Q into AI and asked about the last 5 years. It came back with 3 instances, although checking the data directly from the Tui site and tracking the SP etc, there are actually two days when the SP did indeed increase on results day:

1. Wednesday, 6th December 2023 - FY23 results day - so 17.5 million shares traded - the day started at 5.95 euros and finished at 6.86 euros and so an increase of 15%

2. Wednesday, 13th August 2025 - Q3 results day - so again, around 17 million shares traded on the day and it stared at 7.89 and finished at 8.56 and so an increase of 8.5%

Hope this helps and if we're ever over in Sweden we'll give a knock and catch up

Best regards, Mike

Hi Sanyo86 and all,

Hope you're very well and have to say that I totally agree with your rationale.

Whilst I sold my holding at the end of December 2025, I do check in to the forum from time to time to see how things are progressing for everyone.

Guess my only feeling about yesterday's first Q results, apart from what everyone else has contributed so far, is that the top line is a 'worry'. Whilst the business said back in December results that the top line would be constrained this year, a negative -1% yr on yr wasn't great. My other thought was back in December, the BOD's stated that Summer 26 was in a strong position and yet yesterday they shared a decline of -2%; with the UK at -4%, which to be honest didn't really make sense to me, apart from a serious decline in business since the FY results last year (yr on yr of course) - one final interesting bit for me, was that they continued their Winter sale right up to the end of this Monday and just before results yesterday - this was outside of what they've done historically, as they finished the Sale in previous years at the start of February and guessing that they're simply trying to pull out all the stops to get things to where they've committed, ie growth of between 2-4% for FY26

So I just wonder if they can get their top line in order this year? They are predicating 'a lot' on Summer 26, which as we all know is often a dangerous ploy, as of course lots can happen at such a key time.

Of course they will do well with their profit this year, which will be strong, I have no doubts about that, but of course investors and certainly institutional investors, always look for progress in both the top and bottom lines and ref the top line, as shared, I'm somewhat nervous.

Just thought I'd share and best - GLA

Hi johnjunior,

Just to help, the broker you quote, ie RBC was actually last Monday rather than today and just for clarity

Hi anon3,

But surely an improving EPS helps to drive our SP too?, so everyone's a winner! Having a good divi, together with an improving EPS is great all around