Member Info for MikeS02

Hi mas,

Many thanks for the clarity and of course for all of us, really hope that Wednesday is a watershed moment for the SP - in a really good way of course!

Best and GLA

Hi mas,

A genuine Q - so why are you invested or are you not? If you have such worry about the debt and travel etc etc, doesn't really make sense for investing in such companies?

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well too. You're a bit 'fixated' with debt and all I can say is that Tui has and always will use debt as part of its business plan - just look at its history. As for it's current debt, sitting at a leverage ratio below x1, it's one of the best out there and as such, I'm hoping that they shout about that too on Wednesday - indeed if you read the recent upgrades to their ratings by Moody's and S&P, which both gave upgrades in March, you'll see that both rate Tui's debt as very manageable and no longer a concern.

So I get that you dislike the debt, but as I say, it's here to stay - also and just for ref, look at IAG - their debt is £15 Billion vs ours at £4 Billion and their leverage is x0.9 vs ours at x0.7 and yet, IAG is valued at many, many Billions more than us - so clearly investors aren't concerned as such - again, look at Carnival at over $40 Billion debt and you'll see that most of the holiday/travel companies have significant debt and yet investors buy their stock - why - because it's manageable and just like ours.

Also and just for your ref, on Wednesday, they may state 'again' that they've increased their debt in the 2nd half - they did flag that this was likely to happen in the Q1 results and again for Summer time investment - guess what I'd be looking for if they did, is that the investment at the start of the year is paying off, as I'm guessing this is what most investors would want - investment and then delivery - also if they've started their front loaded payments for their new Boeing jets, then again, this may front load their debt and just so you're aware.

Finally, debt has NOTHING to do with paying dividends for Tui and indeed many other companies - again, if you're interested, just look back at Tui's debt levels vs the dividend payments they used to make pre pandemic - again, it's simply because it's how Tui does business.

Right now, they are in a MUCH better situation with their debt than pre-pandemic and they can CERTAINLY re-introduce a dividend policy, which they've committed to do by September latest

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So ahead of this Wednesday's results, which I believe will be fine, there's ONE bazooka that I'm hoping the BOD will release once and for all.

I've shared a few times in the past, that we need the Dividend Policy confirmed to investors and let's be honest, whilst I believe that our results will be good, let's not forget that it's the second quarter and as the weakest, there's only so much that can be achieved and so a good set, won't in my opinion do anything for the SP and certainly not in this environment - just look at the reaction to IAG's results last Friday, which were strong; the commentary was strong and yet it barely moved.

That's because, as we know, that in today's market, the only thing that really moves the SP is something unexpected and 'additional' to the expected results - just look at the reaction to Jet2's results - again, a good set, but achieved 15% in the day because they announced an unexpected buy back programme.

Which is where our Dividend Policy comes in - we are 'bottom' of the pile when it comes to this, as all of our competitors have a Divi Policy in place and many have been paying out for quite a while now - it's ALL about confidence and if our BOD's are truly confident in their business strategy etc etc, then it's about time that they show this confidence in announcing the Dividend Policy once and for all. They stated in last year's December results that they would announce a Dividend Policy in FY25, which ends in September 2025. They also shared at the Strategy update in March 2025 that the Dividend Policy was pretty much complete and announcing at the Half Year results, would appear the very best time to do so.

Finally, shorters have about 7% of our stock right now and which increased, no surprises, ahead of the Trump Tariff scenario - if the Dividend Policy is announced, wouldn't it be great that big players wanting access to our stock at long last, could result in shorters having to close out their positions quickly on the day and could easily result in a decent 'pop' for once.

About time the BOD truly showed confidence in their business and about time we had a 'pop'!

GLA

So BOA have their claws back in to the stock - wasn't good last time for sure - where will this one take the SP

Hi bot,

Whilst we'd love to, afraid we've invested in getting our bathrooms totally gutted and re-done, so monies being spent elsewhere right now!

Ref the markets, have to think that today is a bit of a 'head fake' I'm afraid, as nothing at all has changed.

For me, really not sure why everyone simply isn't getting what Trump wants with tariff's - he wants MONEY to fund his tax cuts, otherwise he won't get it passed through the House and Senate - it's a simple as that and as they calculate that the cuts will cost around 6.5 TRILLION dollars, he needs to get monies in pretty quick.

For me, totally sold out a week past Friday and keeping monies aside for when it's right to re-enter accordingly, but not in the coming days, as expect further pressure for sure.

So tariff's will go live tomorrow midnight and looks like the China tariff of 104% will go live too and goodness knows where that one will take us all.

So again, sorry, can't make it, but hey, into the future........

Enjoy and best, Mike

hi all,

thought i'd join the conversation ref p&o as just back from a short 4 night cruise on iona. first time with p&o, as usually we go with rc and simply wanted to test out p&o. usually like to cruise on the biggest ships available

embarkation was an absolute disaster - total chaos and whilst 'they' thought things were planned, i could have done much better on the proverbial 'back of a *** packet'.

the ship itself is nice, albeit beige and slightly boring compared to rc big ships.

we'd prepared ourselves for the food as this was often the biggest bug bear quoted by most other cruisers, although have to say that generally speaking, it was fine - indeed sindhu and the limelight club were excellent! the quays we found was the best place for casual food.

would we cruise with p&o again, no, but it was nice to give it a go

Sorry, should have said - looking through the history, they only do these every 10 YEARS and as such, is a pretty big deal

Just a quick message to say 'watch out for the CMD next Tuesday' - interestingly, some say that it's a two day event starting Monday, but checking the Tui site, it only states the 25th!

Either way, if the BOD's have their acts together, it could and should provide lots of news coming out of the CMD and hopefully all positive and certainly could hit the SP in a positive way.

As I say, watch out for all the news and as it's a Capital Markets Day, assuming they will give an update to current trading too etc

GLA

Hi all,

For anyone accessing this part of the Tui site, then Mathias Kiep, our CFO has bought 30k of shares today, 18th March 2025 - follows quite a 'procession' of BOD purchases since December 2024

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi all,

Just sharing that we got our 'long awaited' S&P credit rating upgrade late on Friday and as attached and which follows the Moody's upgrade back in February 2025.

So in reality, the Company has achieved it's medium term ambition of getting their ratings in the 'territory' of the ones back in 2019 and indeed according to S&P, they have also achieved their medium term ambition of getting their net debt to EBITDA firmly below 1 too, so have already achieved 2 out of the 3 of the medium term ambitions quoted and in reality the third one is achieving EBIT growth of 7-10% which again they've pretty much got in the bag!

Have tp say though that the ratings are at the 'bottom' of the rung so to speak at BB- from S&P and Ba3 from Moody's, but hey they are upgrades and guess it will give the Company a strong message to share about their balance sheet at the Capital Markets Day on the 25th March, which will certainly be a positive!

GLA and hopefully other posters will fine this site too

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/tui-rating-upgraded-at-sp-due-to-improved-performance-and-stable-outlook-93CH-3980840

Hi Sanyo86,

Hope you're very well and many thanks for your Q.

On this BB, don't believe there are any other options, although this is tied to Milan where Tui trades shares too - Euronext Milan trading, so may well stay open and of course that's my hope. All of the other links quoted are for the LSE and of course and quite rightly they've now decided to close those being a year following delisting etc.

Hopefully others will find this link too and very happy to comms as and when and good luck

Hi all,

So not sure if anyone will access this one, but it looks as though the site has closed off access to Tui AG and this is really the only place that is now open for comments and guessing this may close soon too?

Clearly everyone in our industry is being hit 'big time' through the nonsense that is Trump etc and guess until we reach early April and the market assesses Trump's final push on Tariff's that there will likely be further turbulence.

Just wanted to share that one of the BOD bought 34k euros of shares today.

Finally and just in case this link is closed off too, please keep an eye out for the Capital Markets Day on the 25th March 2025 - may offer an uplift if the BOD's get their messages over accordingly

Best and GLA

I drop into this BB from time to time, as the commentary is good.

Clearly just my thinking, but right now, I'd be worried owning US company stocks - clearly in recent years, owning US stocks was a gold mine for many, but with Trump in office this is clearly unwinding pretty fast.

So unfortunately, CCL will likely be hit as hard as any others and it will the be interesting to see if European and/or Asian stocks follow suit, as historically they often have. Seems like many brokerages etc are looking over to Europe for a fast buck, so guess time will tell.

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Just sharing below - so another exec on the board, bought 20k euros of shares last Thursday and again great to see - he's Director of Strategy and Holiday Experiences and an interesting buy, in that he'll be a key presenter at the Capital Markets Days in late March 2025, so some great news coming our way?? Let's hope eh

GLA

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2025/regulatory-news/20250221

Hi all,

Sorry for this final post - I should have mentioned in my first post that a final 'downer' is that the shorters have increased again, although probably no surprises eh - so in total we now have 6 shorters again and they're shorting 3.94% of our stock.

Have to believe that they'll be with us for a little while now unfortunately and can't wait til we knock them off their perch once and for ever!

Finally and just for information really - I'll be logging into this BB most likely on a Friday going forwards, as I will be checking the SP weekly too etc

Best and GLA

Hi Strap-me-in,

Hope you're very well.

I do chuckle a little when people post that comments are made to 'boost investment'? Please rest assured that I only post to share my thinking - for anyone to believe that posting on BB's can influence anything is a little beyond me and a bit fanciful.

As I've shared I have a medium and long term SP for Tui and I'll certainly remain invested accordingly and hope this helps

GLA

Hi all,

Please read first post first and then below:

Apologies for the point 5 cutting off - should read:

5. Buyback or Special Dividend alongside FY results in December - they have the money!

Clearly all of this is my thinking only and I know that some will believe that I'm in cloud cuckoo land - let's see eh!

Don't really expect anything major now until the HY results in May, unless other good news comes out before then.

As a final interesting point, when Easter fell in April about 3 years ago, they put out a statement on Easter trading pretty soon after the week had finished - wouldn't surprise me if this happened this year too.

Finally, keep an eye out for the Capital Markets Days on the 24th and 25th March 2025 - they're playing it as some substantial news coming out...........hey, maybe confirm the Dividend Policy - wouldn't that be brilliant!

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well, although totally get that everyone will be angry and down spirited about the SP move since last Tuesday, as indeed I am too.

That said, I'm totally invested in Tui since April 2023 and will remain so until we get to at least my medium term SP which is double digits and then ideally to my longer range target SP too - I'm still expecting my medium term one to be hit by the end of this year.

So just wanted to cover a few points if I may, as they may help:

So for the 'downers':

1. As we all know, it looked like the couple of things that have 'spooked' our SP are the slight increase in debt and driven by the increased level of net investments in Q1 and the fact that we were 2% light on Summer bookings here in the UK.

So for the former point, there's an interesting point to share: So for the whole of FY24, the net investment total was 602m and the BOD have stated that the FY25 figure will increase to 620-680m. The amount put in to Q1 alone was 231m vs last year's Q1 of 44m and so nearly a 200m increase. Based on these facts, it's clear that the BOD have front phased this cost this year and that subsequent quarters should see a decrease yr on yr and if not a significant decrease! If the net investment in Q1 would significantly increase the overall for FY25, then the BOD would have had to have increased their FY25 net investment total, which they haven't done and left unchanged. So you can clearly see this cost undershooting each quarter going forwards, unless something dramatic happens.

With regards the 2% undershoot on bookings - I'm sure you've all seen, as I have in recent days a ramp up in advertising both online and TV - interestingly, they're again playing a clever marketing campaign, in that they quote up to £300 off relevant bookings, but in reality it's £100 off bookings over £1k; £200 off bookings over £2k etc and so in reality they're only offering a 10% discount, which they've done in previous years too and so protecting their margins. Finally on this point, the above discounts are for bookings between the 1st May 25 and April 26 and as such, you've got to believe that they're very pleased with current trading and especially Easter.

Now for the 'uppers':

1. Finish to both wars

2. Upgrades to our ratings by S&P and Moodys, although both may now be waiting for the Half Year results to ensure that things are on track accordingly

3. Significant increase in JV monies by some 200m yr on yr

4. Release of our Dividend Policy - hoping this will come out with our Half Year results in May, because for the life of me, I can't think why the Company would wait until Q3 or the Trading statement in September - just wouldn't seem to make sense to me. If this comes out at the HY, this in itself could be massive - why - because let's face it, ii's and rm's want payment for investing in shares and the Divi is critical to this

5. Buyback or Special Divi alongside FY25 results in December - th

Hi all,

So I know only too well as I know all of you do too, what the nightmare that the last 2 days have been!

Who wouldn't rather have our SP in the mid 8's and beyond as opposed to today!

So wasn't going to make any further commentary until things improved, but thought below would be useful to share:

So at the beginning of the week, shorts amounted to 4.04% of our stock.

Today it's reduced to 2.96% with two out of the six shorters, closing their positions in totality. Additionally, Marshall Wace who has had a short position in us for a long time, has reduced theirs from 1.15% to 0.75% over the last 3 weeks and clearly moving in the right direction.

As a final share, the two shorters that closed, namely LMR partners and Capital Fund Management, lost on our shares -2.1m and -4.97m respectively

Hope it helps and GLA