Member Info for MikeS02

Hi mas,

Yes, we're all very well too thanks.

My guess around buys in December for the CFO and in January for our CEO, could well be tied to any bonuses they may have been paid as part of the Exec team, or of course any spare cash knocking around - we just never know.

That said, if it was part of a cash bonus, then to use some of that money to buy our shares and rather than keep the cash, I guess speaks volumes - that said, guess rich people spend in very different ways to me and maybe yourself - but certainly not assuming that you're not rich!

Best and take care and GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

It's not the level, it's the fact that they are putting their own money into our shares - please remember that all Directors will be entitled to free shares as part of their package and why lots and lots of Directors never buy shares.

It's the intent of what it's showing and that's confidence in the company and indeed that the SP is so low that it's a silly price not to buy them - on top of their free shares.

GLA

Hi both,

Hope you're very well.

Yes, we're the only players in our arena whereby the CFO and CEO have bought shares in the last 2 months - what a statement eh and clearly they both believe the SP is still very much undervalued, as I know we all do too

So I'm hoping that one of the following will come true and/or a combination of all 3:

1. Confirmation that the company has paid off the remaining KfW bank line which was part of the Covid 'bail out' by the German government - they have about 212 million to clear this and once done, they have removed all barriers to reinstating a dividend - they've previously stated that they would get this done by the HY, but would be great and a very strong message to get this paid off for the AGM next month

2. The BOD's strongly believe that a rating upgrade is imminent by S&P and/or Moodys and ideally both - shared on an earlier post that their upgrade in 2024 happened in February, so please watch out for this again next month and if it happens, again will be really good news and could bring in other big players into our stock

3. They have delivered a blow out Q1 and significantly increase guidance - this one wouldn't surprise me in the least, in that for the first time 'ever' in Q1 2024, they made 6 million profit, which for the vast majority of our competitors, is always a negative result - just look at EZJ today. So clearly they're going to do even better than that. Additionally, they were very conservative with their FY25 guidance back in December in my opinion and this undoubtedly gives them lots of room to upgrade guidance accordingly - it's the ONLY thing that tends to get the SP rising pretty considerably

As I say, hopeful it's ALL 3 and if so, very positive news indeed - here's to our AGM and Q1 results on the 10th February

GLA

Hi all,

I know this is a crazy day and know it will be hurting loads for LTH's.

I'm not a holder of EZJ, but am Tui and as such, always very interested in results days etc etc and check in to here from time to time as I value people's opinion.

However, what struck me today and I'm guessing is the reason why the city is underwhelmed, is that on a number of occasions in the results statement, the BOD simply states that the results align with FY25 guidance - think I read it at least 4 times in the statement.

The problem with 'in line guidance' as we all know, is that the city is continually looking for upgrades to guidance and until this happens, the SP is pretty much 'stuck'

Clearly just my thinking, but trying to help understanding

Hi Forest34 and all,

Hope you're all very well.

So a very welcome 'surprise' today.

Could be lots of reasons for the good day today, including some shorters reducing their position; a big player starting out or increasing theirs etc etc - does feel as though it's a big player doing something, but what - not a clue - although happy for it to continue for a long time eh.

My sense is that it could well be to do with EZJ's results coming out tomorrow and then Ryanair and Wizz next week - ie could simply be some posturing ahead of results in our arena?

With regards Gaza and as shared on a previous post - don't believe this is impacting at all - why - because nothing has changed really, apart from a 6 week cessation of the war - in itself, this could break down any day, although I think and hope it will hold. The much bigger deal, will be Phase 2 negotiations and whether this even happens - if it does, then Yes, there should indeed be a good progress in our SP - if it doesn't, well again, nothing has changed really and so I wouldn't expect anything bad to our SP if Israel simply goes after Hamas again after the 6 weeks - of course really hope that they end the war for ever, but it IS the ME!

Oil could well be playing a smaller part and the lower it goes, the better and with Trump's 'Drill baby drill', then it's looking more than likely to move downwards over time, which will certainly help.

Lots of words for really saying, not a clue, but as we're heading in to results season for our business, then it may well garner some interest and head higher and back to it's recent highs - let's hope eh

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

Not an EZJ holder, but do hold Tui stock and interestingly, they seem to be trading pretty similarly recently, as of course is our whole market, barring IAG!

Really hoping that your results on Wednesday, can lift our whole sector and that this continues into next week too, with both Ryanair and Wizz releasing results too (although Michael O'Leary's mouth can run a bit, so not sure about next Monday? Equally, though positive commentary from his mouth, can certainly drive our market, so lets see).

So best of wishes and also looking forward to Wednesday

Best and GLA

Hi all,

So at LONG LAST, it looks as though a peace deal has been agreed for Gaza - brilliant news for all concerned and should certainly calm down the Middle East quite substantially.

The interesting Q will be how the markets react to this tomorrow for airlines and of course for our stock in particular.

Had this happened a few months ago, I thought the stock would literally 'fly', but with what's happening with the markets etc, I'm not so sure that the positivity will be so great?

Clearly there will still be scepticism as to whether it all holds together etc and maybe the reaction will be a bit more muted tomorrow, although let's be clear - I still expect a strong positive reaction tomorrow, but I then wonder if the SP simply builds up over the 60 days that the agreement is initially set to take effect?

Anyway, whichever, simply very glad that Israeli families will get back their hostages - even unfortunately the dead bodies and that the true innocents in Gaza can start to rebuild their lives again, albeit on a very, very long road to recovery.

As for us, let's hope that this deal really does wind down the horrors of the ME over the last 15 months and the market makers and ii's and of course all retail investors too, see the value in our stock accordingly

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just sharing a couple of bits, which I found interesting and hope you do too:

1. So our CEO has bought 35k worth of shares last Friday - as you know, our CFO bought shares about two weeks earlier, which has to say how confident they are with things currently and bodes veery well ahead of our Q1 results mid February and our AGM too

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2025/regulatory-news/20250113

2. Soc Genl has opened up a fairly decent position with us yesterday and as per the attachment below - have to say I really don't understand all of this 'instrument stuff', but at over 5%, sounds pretty chunky - if anyone out there with more knowledge can share more light, sure everyone and certainly including myself, will be hugely grateful

https://d2yk9kjajbiedi.cloudfront.net/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/2_News/2025/regulatory-news/20250113_VR_Soc_Gen_EN.pdf-9e53293115da27747de913fead8dddbd.pdf

Hope it helps and GLA

Hi all,

I'm not an owner of PSN shares, although from time to time, I'll check in to this site, as I've thought about investing accordingly, but....

Don't believe that tomorrow will be anything other than mediocre at best and unfortunately downbeat as the most likely outcome - why - because winter is the worst quarter anyway and with the added costs of the NI increases in April together with high interest rates that will remain high for 2025, I simply can't see how the BOD can be anything other than downbeat for 2025.

Nothing is in the house builders favour right now and let's be honest, the 'ra ra' from the Government in Summer about planning reforms has simply vanished in to thin air.

Whilst I totally understand that holders of the stock will want a rabbit pulled out of the hat tomorrow, I'm afraid that I think the reverse will be true.

Clearly only my thinking, but think holders need to prepare for not great news

Hi mas,

Yes, had a lovely Christmas many thanks.

Just one other positive - hopefully - to add to the picture.

As you know, Germany go to the polls later in February and can only hope that they elect a government 'hungry' for growth, which would be a real positive. Recently, the MDAX has had a torrid time and as it's very focused on the internal market, then a new government could really spur things on and off the back of that, we should get some attention too.

You're absolutely right though - there's lots of stuff happening right now and in the near term and we need a few things to sort themselves out before we can see a great turnaround.

Have to think that when airlines start reporting in the last week of January onwards, that positivity will be rekindled in our arena, but still a few rocky days to come no doubts

Take care and best and GLA

Hi mjg22,

Hope you're very well and don't think it will be too far away from reality!

Clearly huge pressure on coming to a deal, although we have heard that one a few times - with Trump around the corner and whilst I understand why he gets a lot of bad press, he may, on this occasion, be a good one way bet through to a ceasefire.

Not just for us of course, but let's hope it comes about for all of those innocents in Gaza - and rest assured, I'm certainly not talking about Hamas!

GLA

Hi mas and Tuimoon,

Hope you're both very well and just thought I'd share some insights as they may help.

Tuimoon - with regards your post of the 1st January 2025, I totally agree and think I shared in Summer last year that between 2012 ish and 2018, the Tui SP comfortably sat in the range of £7-10 Billion and when the time 'is right', can't see why that can't be repeated!

mas - so some thoughts on what can and should drive the SP this year:

1. Pretty confident that the rating agencies, S&P and Moody's will upgrade us next month - it was February last year that they did the same and with our stellar 2024 results and nothing to say that we won't have more of the same in 2025, expect upgrades accordingly and because these affect what big players can invest in ref stocks, also then expect interest accordingly

2. As already shared in the final results for 2024, Tui will decide and comms their dividend policy by the end of September this year and certainly not before time - they will clear the remaining amount of the KfW by the Half Year results latest, which will then enable the policy to be communicated accordingly. If it's 'good and strong' and aligned to the 2021 updated policy, it will be very well received in the marketplace and put us top in the league for dividend payments amongst our cohort - whilst this won't come into force until FY 2026, you can bet the market will react accordingly and for me, very positively too

3. Results - the BOD have certainly learned lessons over the last 4 years and as such, they are consistently beating expectations and I have no doubt this will be the case in 2025 too. The projections they've provided for 2025 are conservative if not very conservative and when the market starts to understand this following each quarter results, we'll be rewarded accordingly

So just tried to give some thoughts as above and clearly just my thinking.

Right now though, afraid it's a case of battening down the hatches and it's all about how yields are moving pretty much in a straight line upwards across the US and here - as such, provided an article to read as below and hope it helps. Yields will move lower, but it may take a bit of time and until they do, we'll have to sit and wait - that said, all of the airlines and ourselves update in the next 4 weeks or so and which should provide some upward momentum of its own

GLA and here's to a terrific 2025

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-time-bond-yields-surged-090545838.html

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

So a bit of a rocky week, but for us, very much driven by the awful performance of the MDAX, which took quite a beating this week and when you're part of any index hit hard, you're bound to be hit too.

Just sharing a purchase of shares by our FD today - some 25k in value and always good to see and a great sign of positivity to the markets too

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/news/DD-TUI-AG-Mathias-Kiep-buy-48636825/

Cheers and best

Hi Crossley,

I'm not saying that you're wrong about IAG, BUT.........

1. It's very clear that their share buyback has had a massive positive effect and likely the key driver to the recent SP upside. Believe that's due to finish some time in January and as such, will then be interesting to see how things perform. Of course they could announce another buyback which I totally understand

2. As Buffet always see - be fearful when everyone else is being greedy and vice versa - my fear is that that's exactly what's happening with IAG - everyone sees a straight line up and we all know that that simply doesn't happen

Really hope that I'm wrong as I know that IAG investors have been hung out to dry for quite some time, but I'd still urge caution

Clearly just my thinking

Never a good look when a Director sells

Never a good luck when a Director sells

Hi Christofer.

Many thanks for your kind words back.

You've now made up your mind, which is terrific.

As shared in my note, as you're staying in for the longer term, your very best thing to do is stop checking in to the SP - give the end of the week and once only a try and see what it does for you - indeed, you may not even reply to this post, as you've already started!

Good luck and very best and as always, tomorrow is another day.........

Hi Christofer,

I'm genuinely sorry about your plight.

I've been writing a few things and binned them all, as I'm not sure it's what you're looking for?

As you say, you have a pretty simple Q to answer - can you afford to lose the money, which may get considerably worse? Equally, if you can stay invested for some time and which may turn in to years, then it could pay dividends too?

So it's about time and scale of what you're looking for.

Clearly none of us want to lose money, BUT the one thing I've certainly learned in the 15 years I've been investing, is that as a private investor, we have no power in the market whatsoever - there's only a couple of major players in the market and that's the ii's and rain makers and it's simple really - you're either lucky to get on the coat tails of these major investors and you trade up OR you're unlucky and they cause you significant pain in the process. I've had more of the latter for sure

The final bits I'd offer - if you have a partner, PLEASE share with them - I share with my wife and she's had some very sound advice for me and my investments! Secondly, in dark times, keep away from the stock market and checking the SP - again, I've done this and rest assured it really has helped my sanity, when things have been pretty dark - so rather than checking multiple times daily, I went to once at the end of the week and it certainly helped

Finally and of course, I'm simply trying to offer a little advice and certainly not financial advice of any kind

Hope it helps and really hope that you find a path that's right for you and good luck

Hi donalb and all,

Just a quick update on shorts as of 7pm this evening:

So now down to 3.9% and biggest reduction is Marshall Wace at -0.15% since this morning and as I believe we're starting to see some movement which is great and hopefully things will continue to 'catch up' over the weekend and into next week.

The bit I'm 'very pleased' about is that Marshall Wace LLP has always had the biggest short position on Tui for many months and as such, great to see that they're starting to reduce and long may that continue

The quicker we get these 'out of the way' the better as it will be for our SP into the future

GLA

Hiya,

Ah yes - my thinking is that we will see further reductions showing into next week, but let's see as always

Have a terrific weekend and best