Member Info for MikeS02

Hi donalb,

Hope you're very well and huge thanks for sharing.

As you know, but in case others don't, from our low on the 7th August at 5.35 euros, we're 61% up, so not bad eh.

For the year, we're 22% up so far

With regards your final commentary - the only tricky for us which may extend any initial loss and/or give us some choppy days that we've had in the last two as they close their positions etc are those pesky shorters - I strongly believe that their positions are changing quite markedly and hence the swings yesterday and today and which may extend a little further, but hoping not and they're done - as of today, still 4% short, but guessing that there's some catch up in the short reporting figures and will keep everyone updated with any significant changes in the coming days

Certainly buy in to the fact that there's more upside to come through and GLA

Hi Tuimoon,

Hope you're very well.

Of course there's undoubtedly loads of stuff that is preventing higher price targets but I do personally believe that the neutral/hold ratings reaffirmed by some analysts over the last 2 days is undoubtedly due to a lack of dividend and/or dividend policy, for which I certainly can't blame them and if true, of course we'll have to wait through to next September (hopefully slightly earlier) for the policy to be communicated and at which time, some ratings may well change and together with price targets too.

As always. clearly just my thinking and hope it helps

Hi Christofer,

It's because no one believes them and as we've all seen many, many times before, rest assured lots of lawyers and solicitors will be salivating at the idea of helping locals taking the government to court, which will drag out cases for years - there's simply NO WAY that they'll hit 1.5 million homes within this Parliament - NO WAY

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

So another interesting start to our day this morning, with a drop to about 8.40 euros - my assumption is that yesterday and this morning's drops are either totally or partially down to shorters closing or certainly reducing their short positions quite considerably - why - because the initial 'flood' of short sales clearly brings downward momentum, but as we've seen on both days, the SP recovers really quickly and into the green because there are many buyers out there and then this reinstates the upward momentum!

Believe and hope that we hit TERP tomorrow of 9.13 euros and hey, it's only 20 months 'late'!

Have some more analyst thinking to share as below and hope it helps

GLA

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/news/TUI-Oddo-BHF-raises-its-target-price-48577402/

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/news/BofA-Increases-Earnings-Estimates-Price-Target-on-TUI-on-Travel-Demand-Strength-48577087/

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/tui-sees-strong-summer-as-holidays-boost-fy-earnings--18301967.html

Hi Forest,

Many thanks for your Q and can only share what I've shared a couple of times to others ref the SP:

So my sense is that by our AGM in February 2025, we'll be in double digits and I certainly believe that by late 25 and into 26 we'll be looking at the 20 euro mark - but of course just my thinking.

Clearly all very dependent on lots of stuff, both macro ref wars etc and of course micro ref economic performance for example - but with a positive hat on, certainly believe that your range is achievable and hope this helps

GLA

Hi Forest34,

Hope you're very well.

Think I've shared this before, but MarketScreener is a superb publication and please see link below - for future use, you can simply sign up for free and you get up to 10 'free hits' per day to look around the system - so to see the updated ratings etc, simply scroll down the page to news and you'll see relevant updates - then simply click into the item and you can read what the analyst has to say etc and hope it helps and best

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/

Hi everyone,

Hope you're all well and as I usually do on results day, wanted to give some time for the market to have its say and settle before commenting.

Clearly the results themselves are terrific and exactly in line with our thinking, which is terrific - no surprises whatsoever - the BOD are starting to get the confidence of the financial markets, which is great, ie they're starting to believe that the BOD will deliver what they say they will.

For me, I believe the negative reaction this morning was down to the BOD not committing to a dividend policy and to be paid out in 2025 - they've basically put this back a year which being honest for myself, is hugely disappointing , as I was expecting a relevant announcement - but, as I've shared before, I often am really surprised by the Tui BOD - the only rationale I can think of and as shared before, is that until they make the final 214m euro payment, paying off the KfW facility which they again committed today to being in the first 6 months of 2025, that this legally precluded them from even contemplating and sharing their dividend policy, which I'm sure they have under wraps until the appropriate time etc. What is interesting, is that they commit to the dividend policy being communicated by the end of FY25, which of course ends next September and so at least we won't have to wait until the very end of the year to know what the policy will look like.

What certainly has been encouraging about today's price action, is that we've swung back into the green and positive on the day from an initial 8% drop - how often has this happened to companies on results day, but normally they remain in the red until close - will be interesting to see how we progress following the US market open.

So some things to watch out for that may prove positive in the coming days:

1. Whilst some analysts have shared their thinking following our results today, many will leave it until tomorrow and so watch out for these as they are often a catalyst - one I'm looking out for is Barclays as when they first rated us about 6 months ago, they gave us a hold rating, which was taken by the city as a sell - so interested to see their thinking. BofA has us still as a buy and has upgraded our price target from 10.2 to 12.5 euros today - two others I think continue their holds

2. Rating agencies - S&P and Fitch - so these may come out before Christmas with their thinking and could see upgrades too, as we're on positive watch with both and can see both upgrading us accordingly. This my well bring in more ii and rain maker interest

So let's see where the remaining days of December take us - other UK airlines who reported results recently, then had very positive days following, so clearly hoping we get the same

Finally, Clank and MaryBr190 - VERY kind words and thank you

GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

We've had the biggest run up in the last 3 months ref our SP vs ANY of the UK airlines, so have to be happy.

If you look at all of the other players, no one stood out today and maybe what's happening with Israel in Syria could be causing some investors to worry somewhat, although really don't understand why.

As you and everyone knows, I'm very bullish about tomorrow and of course we'll all see and know in just over 12 hours time

GLA

Hi email,

Apologies, I should have said 7am German time is my understanding, so assuming our results will be available here in the UK from 6am on the Tui site? Please correct me if I'm wrong?

Beat and GLA

Hi email,

Hope you're very well and 7am our time

GLA

Hi Clank,

Hope you're very well and totally understand your rationale.

I'm certainly no spring chicken myself and have certainly had moments since I bought in to Tui back in April 2023, as to 'what was I thinking', BUT as everyone knows, I have significant belief in the company and as Buffet has always said, belief is actually one of the most important things for an investor, as belief spreads and ultimately can add significant value etc.

If you do sell up when you break even, very best of wishes for the future - as shared, I have a medium and longer term SP to hit before I sell, and as we're getting close to the medium term number, I'm happy to stay invested through to the higher number, which I believe will be in 2025 or early 2026.

GLA

Hi all,

No idea what's happening with the link, so if you're interested, please see details as below

# Player Short Position value Latest win/loss Startprice Total value change

1. D.e. Shaw & Co. (london) Llp 0.82 % 35.08 M -0.42 M 7.85 -2.41 M

2. Gladstone Capital Management L 0.59 % 25.24 M -0.30 M 7.83 -1.80 M

3. Lmr Partners Llp 0.51 %. 21.82 M -0.26 M 7.35 -2.79 M

4. Marshall Wace Llp 1.79 % 76.57 M -0.91 M 7.51 -8.36 M

5. Two Sigma Investments Lp 0.51 % 21.82 M -0.26 M 7.79 -1.66 M

Sum: 4.22 % 180.52 M -2.15 M -17.02 M

Updated: 2024-12-06, 14:40

Hi Warrenbuff123,

Hope you're very well.

These things can take time to materialise in the reported figures even when they've closed their positions and the site that I use, isn't as updated as it used to be - have no idea why, but it is the best one I can find.

The latest is in the link below and you can see that they're certainly hurting and as such 'joy'! Let's hope even more pain into next week!

GLA

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI AG&land=germany

Hi Mary and all,

Mary, many thanks for your kind wishes and may I wish yourself and everyone else a brilliant Christmas and very best for 2025 too.

So thought I'd share a few things of what to look forward to at our results next Wednesday:

1. Clearly the first is that we will deliver stellar results and likely we'll be able to claim some records too - I say likely, as back in 2019, the Company alongside many others adopted accounting rules IFRS 16 and as such, we only have 2019 as the key benchmark. As such, we'll 'smash' 2019 results for EBITDA - 2.15 B vs 1.36 B in 2019; EBIT - 1.3B vs 893m in2019 and finally, EBT - 854m vs 691m in 2019. So I would certainly expect the BOD's to shout out LOUD for 2024 results

2. Based on the above, I have no doubt at all that the rating agencies will upgrade our balance sheet ratings and back to what they were prior to Covid - right now, they're only one notch away for both S&P and Fitch, so very confident that they will be upgraded accordingly and of course with the upgrade will come further ii and rain maker buys for our shares

3. Finally and I know that I've shared this a couple of times recently, but I'm also very confident that the BOD will announce reinstatement of a dividend and I'm simply hoping that they reintroduce the changed policy from 2021 - if you're interested please take a look at the link below

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/investors/news/2019/ad-hoc-announcements/20191211

As a final thought, could we get to TERP before next Wednesday - it's certainly possible at 9.13 euros and if achieved by end of next Tuesday, would be wonderful eh!

I have no doubt whatsoever, that following the results next Wednesday, that our SP will get in to double digits and beyond that and again as shared previously, if they do announce reinstatement of the dividend, I truly believe there could be a bit of a frenzy ahead of our AGM in February 2025 to get hold of our shares - why, because for a share to be linked to payment of a dividend, it has to be bought by close of play on the day of the AGM and the day after becomes the ex-dividend day - totally different to here in the UK, but could really play to our advantage ref the SP and then support of our SP ongoing

Clearly only my thinking and GLA and of course like all of you, can't wait til next Wednesday

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

So clearly a very interesting day today, with ourselves clearly outperforming everyone else within our arena.

What was interesting towards the end of last week, is that open declared shorts amounted to 3.88% of shares by midweek last week and by the weekend it was 4.1%. By yesterday, it went to 4.22% and my assumption is that a big part of today was shorter closing or certainly reducing their short positions.

Very difficult to judge as of course we don't see this immediately, but will be keeping a close eye in the coming days and certainly expect a reduction accordingly. Would certainly explain the 'leg ups' today at the open and indeed once the US had opened this afternoon too. Isn't it wonderful if true eh!

With regards next Wednesday's results, will share a bit more tomorrow and of course certainly hope that today's momentum continues tomorrow too - if it's shorters closing, then it certainly could

Lovely to have a very positive day and GLA

Oh hi everyone,

IT's their 'bot at it again' - so the ***** was simply saying S L A G G I N G off and just for clarity

hi xhita,

can i politely suggest that you simply 'take a break'.

we get that you love easyjet, but the reality is, is that the ii's; rain makers and many small investors have and/or are putting their money elsewhere.

i'm not a holder of either easyjet or iag, but ****ging off iag when clearly it's having a great year for their sp and shareholders and clearly way, way ahead of easyjet ytd simply shows that you're wrong - not me saying that - it's the money buying the iag shares saying that.

as i say, please simply take a break - ****ging off others adds no value and constantly bidding up easyjet adds no value either, because all shareholders make their minds up based on financials and profit and right now, iag is the stand out performer amongst all airlines within the uk in this arena - guessing you haven't even looked at their balance sheet?

as for easyjet delivering a perfect year...............hmmmm - as i say, please take a break

Hi donalb,

Many thanks for sharing.

It's interesting how the market is reacting to the results - for me a few issues:

1. They missed the analyst expectation for gross profit or EBIT - delivered £597m vs estimate of 621-625m

2. They constantly talk about their medium term goal of 1B PBT, but have never given a timeline.

Based on their 610m for FY2024, you have tot think that this is at least 4-5 years away and as such, doesn't really mean too much

3. Whilst the dividend at 12p was good, there was no change or upgrade to the divi payout for FY25 - of course this might change at the Half Year, but following this jump as expected, future years will simply grow in line with profit growth, which will be much slower

3. Pretty much everything else was in line with no real 'stand outs'

So clearly a decent result but not a stellar one and with no upside surprises, can't see this reaching it's 1 year top of £5.91 anytime soon - unless of course there's a GAZA deal too in the coming days and the ME conflict stops for good

Now for us on there 11th December and GLA

Hi Tuimoon,

Hope you're very well and many thanks for your Q's.

With regards how to categorise Tui, I can simply share that I view them as a Global Tourism Company, who not only sells holiday and adventures, but actually owns planes; hotels; ships and as such, is in a unique world of its own, in terms of scale and scope. What they've been doing in the last two years and undoubtedly even more into the future, is to leverage these assets and which they're starting to do a good job. As for PE, it is a tricky one - at one stage before Covid, they had a PE of 27 believe it or not - I think your range is a decent place to be.

As for the financials - If I may, can I simply ask you to click on the link below and it should take you straight to the financials page for Tui AG and if you look through, you'll see forecasts (my assumption is that these are aggregated forecasts from many analysts as they seem the most accurate) for 2024 - 2026. I've used market screener for a long time now and they are excellent. You may need to sign up - but you can simply sign up with no subscription as I've done and it gives you about 10 'hits' to the site each and every day, which is more than enough to get quality information and hope this helps.

https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/finances/

Ref end of year and end of 2025 SP - Guess I'll simply fall back on what I said back to email and an earlier post, which is: If as I strongly expect, Tui alongside stellar FY24 results announces reintroduction of their dividend scheme updated in 2021 and to be approved and signed off next February at our AGM, then I believe the SP at that time should reach 12 euros as a minimum.

End of 2025, is clearly dependent on numerous things including the macro environment too, but lets say both wars end; we have a strong year in line with the updated guidance given at our results next month and we pay out a strong dividend too in December 2025, then 20 euros has to be in sight.

Clearly only my thinking, but it's certainly part of my medium and long term SP thinking

Hope this helps and GLA

One more time and apologies

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI AG&land=germany