Member Info for MikeS02

Hi Warrenbuff123 and all,

Hope everyone is really well.

With regards your specific Q, my only thinking is how sentiment has changed towards our stock vs earlier in the year.

So back in April when Iran and Israeli issues first surfaced and Iran launched those 300 missiles, you're quite right in our SP plunging -16.5% at the time.

This week, with all of the stuff kicking off again, we're down -6.5% on our close last Friday and indeed whilst all travel stocks in the UK have done well today too, if you look at today's close vs last Friday's close - Wizz -17%; IAG -9.5%; Easyjet -9% and Jet 2 best of all at FLAT.

So whilst at that time in April, we were bottom of the pack ref the others quoted; this time around, we're second best and a decent place to be.

Clearly, things could take another dramatic leg lower for all as to when Israel retaliates; but of course if it then quickly settles - lasting hope eh - then things could recover quickly and then it will be very interesting to see who leads the way on the way 'up'.

As I say though, believe strongly that sentiment is changing positively towards our stock and of course, we all know that come the 11th December results, they'll be stellar!

GLA

Hi Dathrilla and all,

So just a quick headline whereby 'I got it wrong again'! That said and as shared at the end of my musings, that if they didn't share an 'exceed expectations', that the results would still be great and which they are and as others have shared today - the really unfortunate stuff though, is that we will have to wait until the 11th December to see how far in excess of the 25% EBIT we actually achieved - but please remember that up to end of Q3 and adding NO growth for Q4 results last year, our current EBIT is still at 28% and as they've shared a good and strong Summer in today's update, then I'm believing they'll exceed the 30% mark.

Also, as I thought through their 'position' of 'at least a 25% growth in EBIT yr on yr' then how could you exceed that, as of course it's simply stating 'at least', so of course my issue and apologies!

Finally and your Q Dathrilla - because there are no specific numbers with this statement, then analysts can't re-rate really as they don't know what to re-rate against if that makes sense - so as well as looking at the numbers for 2024 when they are officially published, they'd also be looking at guidance for 2025 and how that affects results going forwards and then they'd be in a position to re-rate accordingly - unfortunately, for all of that, we'll all have to wait until December 11th results.

Hope that helps and GLA

Hi Stiperstones and all,

Many thanks for sharing and aligns with our thinking too.

Interestingly, they quote our SP performance vs the DAX, which of course isn't relevant, as we're in the MDAX and interestingly, the MDAX is near it's years lows, so within that context, we're doing even better. If you look at the last 12 months, we're up nearly 15% and without tomorrow's update.

GLA

Hi Dathrilla and all,

Hope you're very well.

So I've shared this one at the 9 month results which didn't come off, but what I'm looking for at next Tuesday's pre close statement, is for the company simply to state two words and that they will 'exceed expectations'!

As everyone knows, they have committed to us as investors and the financial city that they will increase EBIT by at least 25% yr on yr, which by the way, will be the very best of the bunch within our arena.

To give some context, at the end of YTD 9 months and by adding Q4 last year with NO extra growth at all, we will deliver an EBIT result of 28% yr on yr. So with comments coming from O'Leary and others suggesting that August and September have been strong, you have to think that we will see positive returns in Q4 too and if so, then have no doubt, that they will be able to declare 'exceed expectations'.

The great thing about this one in particular, is because it's a pre close statement, they don't declare any figures and as such, exceeding will be left to various interpretation accordingly and until the final results are released in early December, but wouldn't it be amazing for all us shareholders to get such a statement and then have pretty much 2.5 months of potential investors simply wondering how good the results could be and investing in us accordingly.

For final clarity, whether they are able to announce 'exceed' or not, one thing is abundantly clear to me - at the December results, we will clearly be re-rated; have our S&P and Fitch ratings increased back to pre pandemic levels (we're only one notch away from both anyway) and as such, we'll have a strong and significant increase in SP accordingly and of course not before time eh! Additionally and with the intention of paying off the final c200m euros of the KfW in the first half of next year too as already announced, they may well confirm work underway ref reintroducing a dividend for 2025 and to be signed off at the AGM next February - as one retailer states, every little helps!

Clearly only my thinking and we'll know soon enough next Tuesday and GLA

Hi Greylady and all,

Hope everyone is really well and agree, really nice to see a good, blue day!

Looks like a couple of bits of information helped us and UK airlines today - one from O'Leary and one from Wizz's CEO as below and hope it helps:

O'Leary told Reuters that there has been an improvement in bookings momentum since August, driving less need to discount prices. More competition in the market as the boom in travel demand cools down has been weighing on the industry recently.

ABU DHABI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Wizz Air (WIZZ.L), opens new tab expects 15-20% growth in passenger volume next year, its chief executive told Reuters on Monday, with new low-cost routes to the Middle East, such as from Europe to the United Arab Emirates, adding an extra boost.

"Globally, we are expecting 15-20% (growth), but I think Abu Dhabi is going to grow beyond this," Jozsef Varadi said.

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just sharing the article as below

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/news/Tui-expects-strong-demand-in-fall-holidays-47738596/?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Hi all,

Many thanks to Stiperstones for sharing a really good article and Warrenbuff123, the article goes a long way to answering your Q.

Like mas and indeed the article, sentiment is the key driver and for all tourism/holiday/flight stocks, sentiment is still rock bottom.

I do think we have some individual challenges though and whilst this may sound a bit strange, I actually think that our mix of investors is currently a weak link too - unlike many others in our arena, we still have 53% of the stock owned by retail investors and as such, I have no doubt this drives much bigger volatility in our SP than others that are more heavily anchored by ii's. Don't get me wrong, getting big offloads by ii's can have a dramatic effect on the SP too, but overall, SP seems more grounded and more stable with a bigger ii ownership. Also of course, because ii's buy much bigger volumes, then you get a much bigger effect on the SP too at the time of buying.

Additionally, we are still a bit away from out S&P and Fitch ratings of 2019 - not a huge amount, but still away and I'm simply hoping that following our FY results in December, that our ratings go back to these levels, which undoubtedly will then get further ii investment accordingly.

Finally though and I know some of you disagree with this one which of course is fine, but until the Gaza war stops, I believe sentiment will remain highly depressed and for me, it's this one that holds the key to a significant re-rate to our SP.

Clearly only my thinking and hope it helps

GLA

Hi Stiperstones,

Huge thanks for sharing and a really good read - let's simply hope that many more investors get access to this eh!

Hi mas,

Hope you're very well.

Have had a look and please be aware that in 2019, they had to change their accounting rules based on EU updates and as such, whilst the overall figures are correct, they may have slight changes at the margins.

From the Factbook for 2018, their Gross Debt was 5.967 Billion euros and a leverage ratio of 2.7x - as I've shared before and as many know, Tui are a business 'built on and very used to dealing with debt' and they've had it within their balance sheet probably from the time they started as a business.

Net debt for 2018, also from the Factbook was 3.419 Billion

So you can see that we're in a much stronger position now ref debt and ratios vs 2018

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi Warrenbuff123,

Hope you're very well and your Q got me thinking a little.

So I simply thought about what Tui's 'max' capitalisation has been over the years and can share as below:

So the maximum capitalisation that Tui has ever achieved was back in May 2018, when it was valued at 10.3 Billion pounds; 12.1 Billion euros

Between March 2015 and through to October 2018, it's capitalisation never fell below 7.7 Billion pounds; 9 Billion euros

Just thought I'd share and GLA

Hi Warrenbuff123,

That Q is out of my comfort zone I'm afraid and very happy to leave it to those who might have a view.

All I would add is that once sentiment is 'off the floor' with regards tourism/flight stocks, then I do believe that we have a strong story to sell to ii's and other big players ref investment in our stock

GLA

Hi Warrenbuff123 and all,

Apologies for the delay in coming back on your Q and as I can see, it's been beautifully answered by donalb.

For me and assume others, net debt of just 2.1B shows how far we've come as a business etc etc and how well set up we are for the future - also, our net debt ratio, which is net debt divided by underlying EBITDA will be below 1.0x this year, first time ever and way under the 2019 level of 1.6x. Gross debt will also be significantly below the target of 3.0x (close to 2.0x) and which is a key measure for paying out a dividend and again, one of the best ratios on record.

Interestingly, I do check in to simplywallstreet from time to time and so I was aware of the article quoted - to cheer you up, also see an article from simplywallstreet as below and which came out only this week on the 21st August - if it also cheers you up, they currently have a 'fair value' of 22.34 euros based on their discounted cash flow model - if only eh!!

GLA

https://simplywall.st/stocks/de/consumer-services/etr-tui1/tui-shares/news/tuis-etrtui1-performance-is-even-better-than-its-earnings-su

Hi Robert,

I know you play that one really well and so good luck!

Let's hope that with a Gaza deal hopefully getting done (although I understand that that could be a pipe dream too), that as tourism/travel investors we all see a positive momentum accordingly.

GLA

Hi Robert,

Just for clarity:

Back on the 25th October 2023 and about 2 weeks into the Gaza war, our shares fell to 4.64 euros and approximately £3.89 - there lowest 'ever', so how you can say that the war hasn't affected our shares is a little beyond me and as s guide, on the 20th September and before the war started, our SP was 5.74 euros.

A couple of weeks ago when Israel killed various commanders and leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, our SP fell to 5.36 euros and at the end of July, they were 6 euros exactly and so again, a significant development knocked our shares considerably.

You're very welcome to look at all other travel/tourism shares as you'd like, but I'll pretty much guarantee that all others have a similar pattern.

I think you're missing the 'bigger picture', which is how the shares have tanked upon major Gaza news, ie start of war; possible major escalations etc etc, which are clearly shown in how the SP tanked at the time and as shared above.

As shared yesterday, what this has done to sentiment is pretty much destroy it right now - get a deal and suggest that the other side of the coin kicks in, with big players wanting a slice of the action.

Clearly just my thinking and GLA

Hi Robert,

Hope you're very well, but simply disagree.

You simply have to look back and when ALL tourism/travel stocks tanked and it was at the announcement of the Gaza war back in October 2023 and then again recently when it looked like Iran and Hezbollah were going to make it into a much bigger regional war, which of course might still happen, but of course I hope not - please do take a look at the key dates and you'll see a clear link.

Whilst I agree that the war itself and the direct impact on the bottom line is negligible and as stated by our CEO on the 14th, it simply hits sentiment and as such, ensures that the big players give us a wide berth, which they are clearly doing.

Certainly not suggesting that others things aren't at play either as you suggest, but really do believe that once the Gaza war is actually finished, that sentiment will pick up significantly and we'll see prices across the sector rally.

As for Russia and Ukraine - think this is a totally different scenario as right now, it's contained between two countries and again right now there's no sense of it progressing any further.

Of course just my opinion too and will only really know when the Gaza war is done and dusted and let's see where things get too

Hi WackWack, Many thanks for your thoughts back too - as shared previously, I have my end of year SP target and if no good, I'll be moving on too, as by then I'll have been invested for about 20 months - if it delivers by then though, will likely stick with it up to a max of another 12 months and then I'll certainly be moving on, as I have both a medium term and longer term SP target forTui

Really sorry that you need to take money out now, although of course totally understand that 'life' happens and needs money etc etc. Hopefully you can leave some in and see where the next few months take us - we have the ending of the Gaza war; full year results; re-introduction of a dividend into 2025 and likely another re-rating from the ratings agencies to look forward to in the next 6 months or so - all of which should help drive things to a good place.

Very best and take care

GLA

Hi all,

Last post - shorts have increased quite a bit in recent weeks and just thought I'd share - you'll see that the SP is incorrect as for whatever reason, it takes a day or so to update accordingly, but the level of shorting appears correct

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi all,

Just read this and thought it would be interesting to share, as it provides a little more commentary by the company and again, maybe suggests a really strong end of the financial year could be in sight and hope it helps

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/tui-optimistic-as-bookings-rise-despite-summer-sporting-slowdown/ar-AA1oMnRg

Hi all,

Hope you're very well.

WackWack and Warrenbuff123, many thanks for your kind words ref c245sg - if you look at this idiot's commentary in totality, he's clearly a troll and largely on AML thank goodness and likely holds no stocks at all - certainly learned with trolls to NEVER comment back to them, because that's all they're looking for - a chance to continue their nonsense!

So over to today's results, which I'm actually a little underwhelmed by if I'm honest:

1. Of course great that they continue on their journey to significantly increased profitability etc and record revenue and as such, shows a healthy Company

2. Also great to hear about the KfW reduction to only just over 200million outstanding which they'll redeem at the Half Year results in 2025 and clearing the way for a dividend payment end of 2025. Would expect them to agree the dividend structure for us to vote on at the AGM in February 2025.

3. My disappointments lie in the following: I thought that this would be the time that they would be able to state that they would exceed the guidance given to the city for the first nine months, ie a 25% increase in underlying EBIT - but they simply re-stated the guidance. Secondly, the ASP at 3% means a deterioration of 1% from the Half Year, which probably ties in the what Ryanair said about a softening of pricing in recent weeks - I certainly wouldn't want it to decrease any further.

So looking at where the underlying EBIT currently stands:

Including YTD underlying EBIT and the result for Q4 last year and with NO growth in the final 3 months applied to my calculation, then the outcome would be 1,252B vs 977million for the full year and an increase of 28%

Guess you have to be at least 5% over to state an 'exceed', so if the remaining weeks hold up, it's certainly on the cards and would be a great 'one liner' to give the city ahead of the close period.

As others have commented and we've all shared at one time or another, the real fly in the ointment is the Middle East and until the Gaza war is over and really hoping it's near, our SP will undoubtedly be held under water and like all other travel/tourism companies too

GLA

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well, albeit in a very tough couple of weeks!

Clearly the market is being hit by the US market and in particular, the hit to Technology and also the hit to sentiment with regards their market starting to slow etc and whether they will be rolling on in to recession into 2025. As we all know, if the US takes a big hit; the rest of the world follows.

Also of course hitting travel/tourism shares right now, is the sentiment over the Middle East and what Iran and Hezbollah will do likely over this weekend or very early into next week, which will keep things under pressure until everyone gets some clarity.

For me personally, I'm so looking forward to our results on the 14th August, which I truly believe will set us apart in our industry - I totally understand that it doesn't matter when markets are like this, but in reality it does, because when sentiment picks up - and it WILL pick up - then major investors will be looking at the best picks and we will be top of that list.

Just to give you a sense of this week: Wizz -27%; Carnival -13.2%; Tui -9.5%; Easyjet -8.5%; Jet2 -2% and IAG Flat and with strong results today and so middle of the pack

Won't really know 'reality' until we publish on the 14th and only then, with all relevant results being published can appropriate comparisons be made. Still believing we'll blow out - let's see eh and GLA