Member Info for MikeS02

Hi Dathrilla,

I certainly don't disagree with how disappointing things are for our stock - but again, go on to Easyjet; IAG boards etc etc and all posters say the same thing, so in reality this is about travel/tourism stocks and not just Tui.

With regards debt, simply disagree - many tourism/travel companies use a leverage calculator ref net debt divided by EBITDA and this year, based on current projections for results, our leverage will come in at just under 1 and will likely be our best results 'ever' for this ratio - can give you an example of WIZZ as per the results last week and their's is 4x.

For me, until we get past the Israeli/Hamas conflict, all tourism/travel shares will remain in the doldrums as believe that MM's; ii's etc are keeping a wide berth until that war stops - with Israel deep in to Rafah, believe the main war will be over by the end of June 2024 and if so, could and should be a very positive trigger for all tourism/travel stocks and as we were hit the hardest at the start of the war, we should get a good bounce accordingly.

Again, it's our 'market' that is suffering and as such, if you don't see any light in the next 2-3 months, then of course selling up may well be your best bet and if so, good luck

Hi all,

Hope you're very well and just a couple of things to share:

1. I'm sure you've heard of El Nino and El Nina - both weather conditions that can and tend to happen most years, but can really influence Summer's across the Globe. So last year, El Nino developed and resulted in the sweltering heat both our selves and especially Europe suffered and resulting in all of those wild fires we saw.

This year El Nina has developed and this will mean a cooler and much wetter Summer is likely across both ourselves and parts of Europe.

2. Today, the Met has said that our Summer will be much wetter and could be the wettest Summer since 1912!

So whilst I'm truly not trying to put any 'mockers' on anyone who has booked a Summer holiday here in the UK, of course if the above does come true, then we truly will be 'flying' and have a superb Summer and FY2024!

GLA

Hi all,

Just in case you don't know, we had a good day in Germany today - ended up 2.6% including after hours trade, so should point to a good day on Tuesday for us here in the UK - GLA

Hi SK,

Totally agree with your thoughts ref delisting and how some brokers have let their clients down.

Think with the rapid decrease in SP over the last 10 days or so that anyone with any doubts about the delisting etc and thinking of selling will have pretty much done so by now. As such, think that the delisting effect and selling will be very low in the final days running through to the weekend of the 21st/24th June - of course just my thinking and GLA

Hi Duka,

Just been having a final think as to the best route for you.

Transferring can take a bit of time and again, if it's longer than 2.5-3 weeks for instance, you may just miss the boat, or because it's close to time, brokers may refuse a transfer - really important to get access to the right people who can help you make the right decisions etc.

So another thought and undoubtedly much simpler - on Tuesday when the market opens, simply sell your shares in the UK market and then when the money is back in your account - hopefully within 48 hours or so - either buy our shares again in the UK say through HL as you know that the cut off date is 11th June or directly in Frankfurt again through HL or another broker that trades Frankfurt - of course you'll pay some fees to do this and the SP will move around a little, but in the end, you'll have your shares sorted!

Must stress that clearly I'm only trying to provide some options for you - certainly not recommending and you may lose some monies dependent on how the SP moves whilst waiting for your monies back to reinvest.

Hope this helps and sure others may have some thoughts for you too - best of luck

Hi Duka,

Absolutely right to challenge them and hopefully they can do what they need to do - would suggest you read out or send the below comms we've had from HL to your broker.

If they still refuse to help, I can recommend HL as a good quality set up with what I regard as low charges, although there will undoubtedly be other brokers with lower costs.

Can I suggest that you simply put into the search bar - How do I transfer my share holding to Hargreaves Lansdown and then follow relevant links - will also cover costs too. Finally, if you have your share in an ISA, probably even better, as brokers seem to 'line up' for ISA transfers - again, HL would do this for you.

Finally, you will have 'missed the boat' with some brokers that have already frozen the UK shares ahead of the delisting and to date, these are Halifax; ii and A J Bell - if there are any others, would posters please share for Duka accordingly.

Hope this helps and guess my final thought if you can't influence HSBC and want to keep the shares for delisting, is that timing is getting a bit tight and so guess next week would be a great week to get things done and dusted accordingly.

Hi Mary,

Many thanks for sharing - was just about to do the same.

Guess it's interesting that we benefit from the later cut off, but we're out of the market for an extra week after the 'Go Live date' of 24th June - so bit swings and roundabouts ref those brokers that have an earlier cut off, but their clients can trade from the 24th vs ourselves who have a later cut off but need to wait until the 1st July to trade - certainly not an issue for me and hopefully not for others too and especially as I'm expecting a strong first week sitting in the MDAX from the 24th June 2024.

Finally and just a couple fo things if I may:

1. Just a thought ref the investor who shared that HSBC were pretty much telling them to sell up - well based on below, that appears nonsense and would suggest that they share below with their broker accordingly as it may put some pressure on them to deal with you appropriately and really hope so!

2. For anyone getting grief ref keeping it in an ISA, again, if you read right at the bottom, the clarity is clear and again sharing as needed may help

Thanks again and GLA

Always a good sign to see the CEO buying and as the notification came after the close, suggest it will likely help SP tomorrow - guess, let's see

Hi Dinoken,

Bloomberg are reporting that the planned retail offer has been cancelled

Hi Juboy77,

Absolutely nothing happens to your Tui.De - indeed as of the 24th June, we'll all be joining you, with all shares moving over to Tui.De and all in euros.

Hope this helps

Hi mas,

Many thanks for coming back and don't get me wrong - I was also expecting a better SP - guess as investors who wouldn't. As I say though, this downward sentiment certainly needs to work its way through and is certainly impacting our whole market.

To give you and others some idea of how the sentiment has hit others even more so than ourselves in the last few days, I've been looking at 200 DMA's - I'm not techie at all, but I do know that breaking this line is pretty important etc.

So current SP vs 200 MDA's are:

Tui - current SP 5.43; 200 MDA 5.35

EZJ - current SP 4.61; 200 MDA 4.84

WIZZ - current SP 19.57; 200 MDA 20.38

For completeness, both IAG and Jet2 are also above their 200 MDA's

Ref key dates - guess one will be tomorrow and our inflation print - not sure if Europe does theirs too tomorrow. Secondly, the 5th June which will be the time that Frankfurt announces that we will be accepted within the MDAX come the 24th June 2024 - whilst we won't get any new investors until we join on the 24th; again sentiment might be boosted by its announcement

GLA

Hi mas,

Hope you're well.

You're missing a major piece of the jigsaw ref our SP right now - it's called sentiment and it's been hit ever since O'Leary opened his big mouth a couple of weeks ago and again yesterday at their FY results.

He's basically saying that there could be a 'price war' this Summer as he's seeing a scenario for Ryanair whereby prices will be flat to just up for Summer - previously he was predicting prices increases of 10% yr on yr. But of course this is simply applicable to Ryanair - it doesn't have to be and in fact I don't believe it will be relevant to us - why - because package holidays offer up a much bigger element of moving margin and profit around, as clearly we're not just reliant on selling seats on a plane. Additionally of course we have a cruise line part to our business too, which is flying right now and will undoubtedly have a brilliant Summer and rest of 2024. But, the sentiment part needs to work its way through, which is what's occurring right now.

Simply look at all of the other travel/airline stocks and every single one of them is down and actually many more down than us over the last 7-10 days.

As I say, until we get beyond this sentiment issue, the SP will remain where it is - always unfortunate when sentiment changes just as you release good results, but afraid it is where it is.

GLA

Hi all,

So what a roller coaster this week - not too despondent as the whole market was down and again, others more so than ourselves, eg EZJ and Wizz and we were pretty much in line with falls for IAG and Jet2. Additionally of course and unique to ourselves, we had brokers giving timelines for selling ahead of the delisting and so investors in Halifax and ii, were the first to hit that timeline on the 15th this week and possibly adding to our downward pressure.

Have been re-looking through our H1 results though and they really give me strong belief in the Company and its future - this one will hopefully provide some cheer:

As we all know, the Company is stating that their EBIT will increase 24 vs 23 by at least 25%!

Within the H1 results, the company states that in H1 24 vs 23, we are already +232m ahead in EBIT. Now add that to the full year EBIT result for 2023 of 977m and you get 1,209m, which already is a 23.7% increase yr on yr!

So I get their 'reticence' in not wanting to over egg and with 40% of the Summer season still to sell, but unless something really dramatic happens - I realise it's happened before with wars etc and could well happen again - but if nothing happens untoward and we get a fair wind, either at the Q3 announcement or the one in September, which is the trading statement ahead of the close period and our full year results (which I personally think will be the time), they will have to upgrade their EBIT forecast for 2024, which will be a boon! Against that opportunity, I don't see any other travel/airline business significantly beating what they've announced to the city for 2024

Hope this helps to add a little cheer for the weekend and GLA

Hi Beo1,

Many thanks for coming back, but think you're incorrect in your thinking - to help please read the link below - shows that the medium term profit ambition for the holiday side is £250 million and as part of the overall £1 Billion fore the whole company by 2028

Hope this helps

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2023/10/13/easyjet-plans-order-for-up-to-257-airbus-aircraft/

Hi Beo1,

Hope you're very well.

I'm not an EZJ investor, but I do check in here from time to time and have a read, as I'm actually a Tui investor and so interested in a range of views about what's happening in travel/holiday stocks etc.

Just wanted to share that as far as I know and remember, the Full Year target of £1 Billion PBT is actually a mid-term target for 2028 - hope that helps and best

Hi SK and all,

Sorry, should have been a bit clearer - Gatwick is indeed our main hub for London, but we do enable holidays from Heathrow via flight 'partners' and with BA being one of them, then yes, can expect possible kick back - let's hope it's simply a negotiation tactic and it's sorted to help everyone have a brilliant hols

Hi SK,

Many thanks for sharing - and Yes, guess any news that's negative to flying may well hit SP's. The great news of course is that Tui don't fly from Heathrow - their main hub for London is Gatwick

Hi SK,

Many thanks for sharing - and Yes, guess any news that's negative to flying may well hit SP's. The great news of course is that Tui don't fly from Heathrow - their main hub for London is Gatwick

Hi SK,

Brilliant and many thanks and of course - for all of us, Good Luck

Hi all,

I was genuinely debating whether to share this, but as SK has 'celebrated' the £5.50 mark, thought it might help.

So SK has shared a bit more about his background either on this board or EZJ - he has been trading for about 18 months; usually in £500-£1000 blocks. He hasn't had any of his trades lose him money and he has used some of the money he made earlier this year to put down a deposit on his first house. He currently is invested in BT.

SK, if I have any of this wrong, then please correct.

So based on where you are and what you've done - huge well done!

I've been trading for nearly 20 years and have had my moments - both great and bad.

I've learned two key things whilst trading and I'd like to share:

1. At some stage you most certainly will lose money - it might come out of the blue with a dreadful result; it might be ii's or mm's offloading; it might simply be that you got in at the wrong price and the stock valuation takes the SP down - I've had all 3 and there's undoubtedly many more ways to lose money too. I'm a big fan of Warren Buffet and even he has had his ups and downs and has certainly lost considerable amounts of money along the way. So rest assured, at some point, you will lose money.

2. Why do I share the above - because losing money can either break you or help set you up for further success, as you learn the pitfalls to avoid etc. However, there is an even bigger reason - it's called humility. I strongly believe that until you've lost and likely lost 'big', then you feel and believe that the world is at your feet and 'sod' everyone else getting in your way with their nonsense etc. When you do lose big - as I have certainly done - but actually done really well too - then you really start to appreciate the impact that words can have on people and especially on boards such as this.

That's all I wanted to share really - so words matter; when people are losing and some may be losing big and/or indeed their whole life savings on the line - humility is king!

GLA