RE: Halifax Share Dealing24 Apr 2024 18:16
Hi mas,
Hope you're very well and yes, I am.
Today was all about the trading statement from Jet2, which seemed to be on a downer in the market - looked like they were suggesting that they'd seen 'more competitive pricing' in last two months and their package holiday to individual flights had softened by 1 ppt yr on yr. My guess ref the pricing is that either ourselves or indeed Easyjet and/or a combination of both of course are putting price pressure on Jet2 - remember that right now and in the last 12-18 months, Jet2 make MUCH more money profit wise than we do and so if they are facing pricing pressure, then of course their profitability going forwards will be under pressure too! Interestingly, they wouldn't give a projection for FY25, which again is interesting.
Why pressure from us and/or Easyjet - because WE have the power to do so as the biggest travel business in the world - remember in our full year results last year, we BLEW the competition out off the water with regards sales and delivered our BEST ever sales on record - so clearly the BOD and the business know how to drive sales and the top line eh - and Easyjet, because their package holiday business is growing well and of course, they are more at the discount side of things anyway - so all, in all, for us Tui, believe this is good news as we're squeezing a key competitor!
Ref the Half Year - just like Easyjet and their results a few days ago, we have Easter in our Q2 this year, which simply has to help our figures year on year and especially as we know, because they told us last year, that Easter 2023 was one of our best ever - so why not this Easter too?
Secondly, we knocked the competition out of the water really with our 24Q1 results and making positive EBITDA for the 1st time ever. Clearly Q2 including Winter will be negative EBITDA wise, as is the case for the rest of the market, but with a great Q1 and continuing momentum and Easter and the possibility of pricing pressure adding even more to Q2 this year, then feel strongly, that we'll have a strong Half Year.
Hope this helps - clearly just my thinking and GLA