Member Info for MikeS02

Hi Marcinkus,

Many thanks for sharing.

Yes, as expected and previously shared, the Group is unable to pay a divi without 'completing' the KfW facility.

As we know, this has already come down from the 1.1 Billion in place at the end of last year and because of them issuing the sustainability bond last month.

So nothing to say that they can't and won't issue another bond in the coming months, which will clear the facility in totality and open up the gates for a divi - have to say, that I'd be hugely surprised if this doesn't happen in the coming months and a divi paid in December's full year results statement for 2024 - if not, then 2025 is pretty much guaranteed!

Also, taking a quick look at the main holders of stock - pretty much like what I see (not so sure about Goldman, but sure everyone has an opinion on them) and shared a while ago, that I particularly like Helikon as a main shareholder, who basically exists to find stocks around the world which offer 'huge value' and they then invest accordingly - from memory, think they took their position in the middle of last year, so clearly a great asset for them!

GLA

Hi Stiperstones,

Just one other thing to share if I may - so I follow Simply WallStreet, as I find their analysis often pretty good, although as with any analysis, you have to take much with a pinch of salt etc etc.

So just for your ref, right now, they have a fair price value for Tui of £9.95 and reporting that the average analyst 1 year price is £9.49 - I'll take either of these as I'm sure most posters will to!

GLA and have a terrific weekend

Oh and sorry for raising any expectations ref Tui announcements - disappointed to say the least, but hey, assume we'll have good news to look forward to, as and when they decide to share

Many thanks for your feedback both - appreciated

Hi all,

I'm not a holder of CCL stock, but pop in to read the posts from time to time.

Do have a genuine Q though - can anyone tell me and maybe others too, why on earth CCL doesn't hedge their oil purchases?

To me, seems a pretty basic need in the travel industry and genuinely interested and maybe why CCL certainly currently, taking a bigger hit than most?

Many thanks

Hi Stiperstones,

Many thanks for posting and always welcome new analysis.

Guess my thinking would be:

Interesting that analysts rarely follow company guidance and for that I don't blame them, as Tui hasn't had a great record in the past, but in the last 18 months or so, they've clearly learned and during that time have beaten forecasts accordingly.

So at the end of last year when they presented their results, they stated that revenue for 2024 would increase by at least 10% and much more importantly to me, profits, would increase by AT LEAST 25% - and I put the last bit in capitals, because they did too and they reiterated that position at the Q1 results.

Morgan Stanley, when they upgraded the stock in February 2024, actually stated that they thought that the profit number growth was conservative and based on the Q1 results, they only had to grow profits by another 8% in the rest of the year, to deliver the 25% growth - hope that makes sense!

Finally and as you will have read numerous times, when the RI happened last March/April, the company valuation at that time, the TERP should have been £8.30. Now clearly for that to materialise, investors need the confidence to take the SP to that level, but for me, I have every confidence that Q2 numbers will be strong when they publish next month and it wouldn't be a surprise if they raise guidance too, and especially on the profit number growth.

Clearly just my thinking and GLA

Hi Dathrilla,

So interesting Q and have checked back and for whatever reason, last year looks like the only time they released information specifically about Easter and of course some further information on how Summer was doing etc etc. Looking at the comms, which you can view in the link below, it may well have been that they were able to quote that they were taking 500k customers abroad, which of course is a decent 'round number'.

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/press-releases/2023/2023-04-06-tui-easter-holidays-2023-customers-prefer-sunshine-destinations

Before that of course you wouldn't expect anything between 2020 and 2022 and because of Covid etc.

2019 didn't have anything because in March of that year the MAX jets had all be grounded and so at that time is was all about getting in extra capacity and dealing with the 'panic' caused at that time

Couldn't see anything at all in 2018, but in both 2017 and 2016, they actually released a 'pre-closing statement' at the end of March sharing how things had progressed for the Winter and how Summer was progressing too.

So they've certainly used different methods over the years, but all comms complicated by Covid and the grounding of the MAX jets. Guess, we'll just have to see, but still hoping that they will issue an update of sorts in the next couple of days - that said, could of course be complicated this month by the Premier Listing scenario within Frankfurt and of course the delisting scenario too, so may simply decide to leave it all to the Half Year announcement - for me, hoping not and will be disappointed if 'no news'

Hope this helps and GLA

Hi donalb,

Many thanks for sharing and just need ourselves to update accordingly tomorrow or Friday - let's hope eh!!

Hi everyone,

Hope you're all very well.

So a little disappointed that Tui haven't released any Easter numbers as I expected them to, today. That said, we've had numerous times when Tui haven't quite done what they could have done to drive the SP eh over the last year.

So my assumption is now, that the numbers will come out next week - the fact that next Monday is also the end of the second quarter and Half Year, may also have something to do with not releasing numbers today. Additionally, another poster from earlier in week, actually thought that they'd share into next week anyway, which is then comparative timings yr on yr.

Reading about travel plans today for Easter there's no shortage at all with regards a very positive picture, with Edinburgh; Newcastle; Manchester and Bristol from what I can see, ALL expecting record numbers through their airports in the next 4 days and as such, you have to think and believe that Tui will be right there amongst the mix, if not leading it!

Also, can't complain at what has been a pretty good week for us, with 'right now' showing a 70p movement from Monday's opening of £5.83, ie 12% rise over just 4 days!

Have a brilliant Easter everyone and can't see any reason based on above and hopeful that Easter trade will also be published next week, as two why we can't breach £7 pretty readily and onwards too

GLA

Hi Dathrilla,

I totally agree, but have learned in my time investing, that's it's just true - ie mm's and ii's get all the juicy bits before us and then manipulate accordingly!

When we can ride that wave, it's great, but often, we're in the 'wash'; get swamped and often harbour a loss.

We simply have to accept that fact as part of investing, or you get out and leave the stock market well alone - a thought I've had numerous times whilst investing

Hi all,

Well, think today in particular has taken all of us by a 'very pleasant surprise eh'!!

Have been wondering like many why the momentum, because it feels like momentum is driving the SP right now.

Two ideas come to mind - outside of any Easter announcement coming our way hopefully tomorrow or Thursday - one, is whether there's some short covering starting to occur - as mentioned yesterday, the two short sellers have certainly lowered their share amounts in recent days and indeed one has removed it's starting price too - all of which might contribute to momentum - oh and I've included today's short chart as per the link below - isn't it a 'shame' that Qube has already lost 5.5 Million!! No idea ref Gladstone, as they've removed their starting SP, so you have to think probably even more!

The second thought, which I know another poster has mentioned this morning, is about an MM or ii starting to build or continuing to build a fairly substantial position in our shares - of course with both of these, we won't know until they have to post an rns 'by law', so may be a few days away.

So finally, I realise that many LTH's are still suffering with this stock and I can only hope that the SP continues onwards and upwards

GLA and at least enjoy the few days of blue on our screen and hopefully many more to come

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi both,

Just to share a little nugget.

If you look at the last 3 days or so, our shares in Germany have outperformed us here in the UK - so for today, the German SP increase was just over 4%; whilst us here in the UK just short of 3%.

What I find interesting is that whilst the UK airlines have been hit in the last few days, it looks like the arbitrage effect between here and Germany, is looking like it's playing to our advantage at long last. So again, last Friday, the German SP was up all day, albeit modestly; whilst ours moved about a little and then ultimately broke through in to the pm.

So just thought I'd share and let's hope it continues, either way eh!

So expect Easter trading news from tomorrow, but most likely Thursday and if we keep in the range above £5.80, we should break through that £6.30 upper level once and for all

GLA

PS - Still look at the two short sellers against our stock from time to time and interestingly, they've collectively lowered their shorts from 1.6% about a week ago to 1.49% today - another decent sign for our stock

Hello Mbk1991,

Sorry, but querying your post - where do you believe DLG has strong fundamentals, because based on results last week, it clearly hasn't! Operating Loss of £190M vs loss of £6M in 2022; ROTE -15% vs -3% in 2022.

The ONLY saving grace was the disposal at £444M - otherwise, the results would have looked and are disastrous, with most key measures going even more deeply into the red.

Even with some kitchen sinking, although not sure that's true here, turning this into something viable will undoubtedly take several years and they'll likely be painful years too.

Simply believe anyone thinking this will 'turn' into anything positive this year has those 'rose tinted glasses on'

Clearly just my opinion and in lots of respects hope that your thinking comes through, but really don't believe it will

Hi all,

Not a holder of DLG and shared my thinking a little while ago ref Aegeas walking away.

Genuinely sorry that they have, but looking through below, think that some have 'rose tinted glasses on'. The SP just as the Aegeas bid was made known, was £1.56 and therefore surely the SP on Monday will open at this sort of price - if not, why not, because there is now, no 'prop'?

Equally, don't believe that the results last week or indeed commentary from the CEO will provide any prop in the short term and until he announces more fully his strategic intent in July 2024?

Hi donalb,

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts.

As you mention, the update was leading into Good Friday, as of course by then, the business knows exactly how many customers they will be taking abroad etc and hence why I believe the update will be this week coming and anytime between this Tuesday and Thursday and ahead of the Good Friday date as they will certainly know numbers by then etc etc.

Actually the comparisons will favour a stronger year on year with lower numbers late March last year as Easter was later and more may well be taking holidays this weekend as we're writing this and therefore stronger year on year - the business itself of course may well compare like for like, but even if they do, believe the results will be strong anyway.

Clearly I know that it's a bit 'Peter and Paul', as any slightly weaker comparisons right now (yr on yr), will then mean slightly stronger comparisons into the start of Q3 for us, but actually 'right now', I'll take the numbers this way around and giving us an even better end to our Q2.

The really important part though, is for our SP to 'hold up' in this range and until they do announce

GLA

Hi all,

So very encouraged with where we finished off the week and as shared last weekend, it gives us a great springboard into early next week and when we should get an update ref Easter from Tui - should be either Tuesday or Wednesday and based on last year - and if so and at a level going into those days as per today, then it gives us a brilliant opportunity to push through that pesky £6.30 upper range level and onwards and upwards towards TERP. Additionally, if the breakthrough is particularly strong, then it could wipe out the short sellers,. which for me and I'm sure yourselves, would be even better eh.

So hoping that we stay at this sort of level by end of play Monday and let's see...........

GLA

I'm not a DLG holder, but do check in on this board from time to time.

With regards Ageas coming back - you have to think that posting nearly £200 million 'loss' is pretty dire and as such, why on earth would or should Ageas come back with or raise their offer. If indeed, they do, it will be paltry and as such will undoubtedly be rejected by the BOD yet again - THINK HARD, as if they pull out or offer a paltry one that's rejected again, as some have said, the SP will indeed plummet!! I'm ALL for greed and making money where and how you can, but based on today's results, you have to think that the screen will be red again for many days coming.

Clearly just my thinking

Hi YorkshireBlues,

Just for clarity, think JG68 was quoting 5 trading days and as such, absolutely correct as the SP was 155.21 back then, so very close to today. You've quoted 5 days back and not trading days and just for clarity - so in reality, both correct, but different timelines

Hi all,

Hope you're all very well.

Just wanted to share thinking about this coming week and why a good week and movement in our SP could be really important and going into the final week of March 2024.

As I've shared a few times, our top SP since the RI is £6.30 and we've bounced off that top a few times in recent months.

So getting through this upper level is important in enabling our next leg up into £7's and above and towards our TERP of £8.30.

Today we sit at £5.67 and my hope is that by the end of the week, we'll sit somewhere towards the £6 mark - ideally above £5.80 as a minimum.

Why - because at that level, if the business does release a statement about Easter, which if it does, should appear sometime between 26th - 28th March 2024 and as per last year, then if we achieve a relevant bounce that reflects 2023 of some 12% for the day, then at long last we'd be above the £6.30 mark pretty readily and which would enable us to set some new upper levels to the SP. Additionally, if this comes about, you never know, we may knock out one of the short sellers, if not both - now there's a prize eh!!

Clearly just my thinking, but hoping for a good week this week to get us into this territory and we'll then see what happens into the final week of March 2024.

GLA

Hi boselecta,

Afraid I disagree with your statement ref Israel - agree ref Ukraine, but not Israel. If you truly believe what you're saying you're missing a much bigger picture, which is nothing to do with where airlines fly to, but if ultimately, the Middle East becomes fully drawn into the conflict. If the Middle East 'explodes'; shares across the world will tumble as it's a huge major unknown, with regards what else might happen; who else might get drawn in etc etc. and as such, IAG and all others will tumble even more!

I for one, will be really glad when the Israel war is finished as it would stop major suffering across the board and also take this major issue off the table and let's hope we get to the other side of this successfully - right now, doesn't look like any major flare ups are likely and let's hope it stays that way

GLA

Hi all,

Just sharing below, in case you missed it and hope it helps - not a holder of IAG, but do check in here from time to time to see commentary etc and delighted for your rise today:

On London's equity markets, British Airways and Iberia owner IAG soared 6.23% after it received upgrades to 'outperform' from both Raymond James and BNP Paribas Exane.