Member Info for MikeS02

Sorry for this extra posting, but just read below on Reuters as an update - so Max 9's grounded in the US:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-safety-board-investigating-alaska-airlines-boeing-737-max-9-emergency-landing-2024-01-06/

Hi all,

Just sharing a couple of bits I spotted this pm.

So Simon Calder, who is a pretty well known Travel Reporter for the BBC says it's very unlikely that what happened with the Alaskan plane would be repeated on any other Max plane and equally that they vast majority of travellers would have no issue flying Max planes at all - he simply trusts that Flight Captains etc and indeed the Industry itself will only ever assure safety and for him, that's good enough.

Additionally and through Sky who interviewed an Aviation expert/veteran stated that it was hugely unlikely that any other Max plane would be grounded - his view was that grounding any plane never mind a big number of them invariably 'never happened' as it wasn't so much grounding them, but then getting them assessed and appraised to get them flying again - his example was that it took two flights to be lost before action was taken last time to ground the Max range and after the first, nothing at all happened.

So certainly not suggesting that there won't be any reaction come Monday, but it seems like grounding planes isn't on anyones agenda right now

Thought this might help

Just sharing as it helps me as a non technical person to understand better - Reuters always seems to break things down nicely - so if you'd like, please click link below.

Finally, you have to think around the world today and tomorrow, there are LOADS off Boeing Max's being used in flights - would suggest that if there was 'truly' a major safety concern, then such planes would have been grounded 'immediately'? Guess we'll all see soon enough

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-safety-board-investigating-alaska-airlines-boeing-737-max-9-emergency-landing-2024-01-06/

Hi all,

I do wish that some posters here would do a little checking before posting - it's VERY easy you know!!

So with Boeing 737 MAX - we fly the 8 series and NOT the 9 - indeed the 8 series is by far the biggest around the world, with the 9 series nowhere near as popular amongst airlines.

So assuming that proper investors will actually take a look before 'panicking' and as such, don't believe there will be any issue on Monday - unless of course they spot something more pertinent to their entire design of planes?

Just wanted to share and hope it helps.

Finally, oj17 - whilst you may be correct ref building technique etc etc, you also realise I'm sure that ONE plane's issue could of course be simply down to that ONE plane eh!!

Hi Badgernator,

Exactly how I see it too - and by the way, I actually think that yesterday and today's trade will have largely played out for those investors who don't want to trade Tui in Germany only and as such, believe the SP will get back into gear from early next week and certainly back above £6 barring any external stuff off course

Hi TL,

Yes you will have no issues - I'm with HL too - again, will only have some additional charges when you come to buy or sell etc, which can be found on the HL site. That said, would certainly be more than happy to pay a few extra quid in charges, if the move to Frankfurt boosts the SP as I'm expecting it to - GLA

Hi Forest34,

Yes, no problem at all with ii, as indeed it will be the same case for the vast majority of brokers too, if not all of them - customers simply need to check with their Broker accordingly and that they enable trading shares in Germany, which ii certainly does.

So if and when the divestment occurs, your shares will simply be held and traded in euros within the ii system - biggest change will be certain charges - again, you'll need to check thee with ii.

Hope that helps and best, Mike

Hi all,

Have read everyone's comments and just wanted to share a little more if it helps, ref the de-listing:

1. Please read the full details about the de-listing and benefits etc etc on the Tui site - think it links straight to the AGM and you'll see various pieces of information contained accordingly

2. So some have asked the benefits - so when we delist - and as mentioned before, you have to think it's nailed on as clearly big investors will be behind the BOD and on the AGM day will cast their votes accordingly and so unless pretty much ALL private investors vote against, which of course I don't believe would be the case anyway, then believe strongly that the 75% threshold is in the bag - so back to de-listing - so once that is passed, the TUI BOD will then apply to join the MDAX, which is a premiere index in Germany and the most important thing, is that this index has many funds investing in its members, so clearly a significant win - oh and whilst they will 'apply' it's pretty much guaranteed to join. Secondly and also most importantly, 77% of 'liquidity' is already over in Germany, with shares traded here representing less than 25% and as such, you always want to be in the biggest 'pond' and Frankfurt and the MDAX will provide significant upside I strongly believe.

3. I'm sharing this as I've read it, but my understanding may be incorrect, so please check yourself - if the de-listing goes ahead, it sounds like trading in Tui shares in the UK will in effect cease to be traded on the 18th April, with full de-listing occurring around the 24th June 2024 - my sense based on this, is that the de-listing itself may be quicker than the June date

4. Finally, today is simply those traders and assuming mostly private traders, who don't want to trade in a share outside the UK, which I totally understand - for me, it has nothing at all to do with the de-listing recommendation by the BOD - will only see if this is correct into next week, but strongly believe that the SP will be back above £6 very early next week and right now, I don't see an SP movement of less than 5% anything at all to worry about

So hope the above helps and totally get that this is only my opinion on the matter, Best Mike

So, the business has announced it's recommendation to delist the FTSE 250.

As shared previously and for me, I totally agree.

Think the FTSE 250 has proven to be a 'killer' for our stock and with significantly reduced liquidity, why on earth wouldn't we want to move over to Frankfurt, where 77% of the stock is traded? Additionally, if we were to move, we'd be on one of the premiere indexes, which in itself would mean better investment from the likes of ii's and mm's.

So whilst I totally understand that this might be contentious for those based in the UK - which I am by the way, I do think it's our way forward to increase our SP - may take a bit of a hit initially from the delisting, but from April/May onwards, could really set us up for success.

Finally, you can rest assured that if major investors have suggested this, then with their votes on the 13th February, this is pretty much a foregone decision!

Certainly have a read - if you're interested, there's lots of information under the AGM link on Tui.com and GLA

Hi all,

Been looking around at 2024 forecasts for our SP and came across this one - Thought you'd find the link below interesting...............GLA and best Mike

Oh and by the way, I'm not a technical guy - in some respects, wish I was, but can't generate the energy to learn etc etc - if anyone out there is technical, a few explanations back would be greatly appreciated and assume would be valuable to many on this board too

https://invezz.com/news/2024/01/02/tui-share-price-technical-setup-points-to-a-31-jump-in-2024/

Hi SK and all,

Thanks for sharing the Guardian link - I was just about to post the same information via Proactive UK and it certainly looks good.

What we need now, is for analysts; ii's etc etc to 'buy the fact' that Travel and Tourism really will withstand any sense of 'cutting back' ref necessities etc etc and that they won't sacrifice holidays etc, which I totally believe by the way!

As for 2024 - like Marcinkus, I'm looking at TERP of around £8.50 being the minimum we get to for 2024 and of course if the ii's; analysts give us a bump into January, then all well and good eh.

GLA and Happy New Year

Hi all,

Hope you had a terrific Christmas and very best regards for 2024, which I'm hoping will be the 'take off' year for Tui shares, as I'm sure you do too.

The short term barrier though, as I've shared a few times, is the £6.30 mark and which represents our 6 month high.

Just like today, we seem to be simply bouncing about the £6.20 area and to get a breakout, we really do need to pass through £6.30 and with conviction too.

I'm simply hoping that into next week and 2024, that when analysts; ii's and mm's assess what will be hot for 2024, that they pick the Tourism market and then we'll fly - pardon the pun.

So 2023 has been difficult for Tui shareholders and especially LTH's - with a re-rating as above, we might well get what we're all looking for - to TERP and upwards - GLA and again, Happy New Year

Hi Graham,

If Tui do indeed leave the FTSE, then yes, relevant shares will simply be transferred to Frankfurt for future trading.

You'll simply need to check that your platform allows dealing in German shares, but the vast majority do etc and if they don't then you'll simply need to transfer your shares to a platform that does allow trading in German shares.

Hope this helps and best,

Mike

Mary, I totally agree and will be very surprised if it's not a proposal for the AGM - Happy Christmas!

SK - Thanks for coming back and can I suggest that you may have been at the sherry a little early this festive season?!

Buying stocks on return from holiday? Delisting will make a political statement? Delisting will tilt towards Jet2?

As I say, you may want to re-read some of your commentary as it doesn't really make any sense? As for private investors - surely you know that the VAST minority of all shares are now owned by ii's and mm's and as such, our influence as retail investors is very limited indeed. Infact, I'd go as far as to say that what we need is a big ii to really get our shares going in the right direction and interestingly, UBS certainly seems to be building a stake in recent weeks - let's hope that continues!

Investors invest across the world and it has nothing to do with where they are based? Investment decisions are made about how healthy a business is and how successful they will be in the future - so if investors believe that Jet2; EZJ etc etc have better investment opportunities and a brighter future, then they they will invest in them accordingly - nothing to do with living in the UK I would suggest.

As for delisting, then of course we'll simply have to disagree - let's see what our BOD comes up with for our AGM and then see where the votes go - that said, I'd suggest that with major investors already suggesting delisting, then us retail investors will have very little influence and my sense is that the decision has already been made - clearly those unhappy will sell accordingly and good luck.

Guess we'll know soon enough and happy Christmas

Hi SW,

Hope you're very well.

Just a quick bit of feedback on your thinking - TOTALLY agree with the first part and hoping that all of us who stayed the course so to speak will welcome a very successful 2024 and even more so for LTH's! With regards your second thought though, I'll politely disagree - as you may have heard at the FY results, the Board are actively looking at whether they should delist from the FTSE and simply list in Germany, albeit on one of the bigger markets over there - they quote poor liquidity in London and I have to say I totally agree - simply look at how volatile our SP can be and especially when you compare it to other travel/tourism stocks - whilst I accepted such volatility for up to 6 months following the RI, it simply cannot be the reason any more. So have to say if and when it comes to a vote at the AGM in February, I for one will be voting to delist and move squarely over to the German market where the stock and SP will be much better supported by liquidity.

Hope you and indeed everyone has an amazing Christmas and very best for 2024

Hi mas and all,

I'm as frustrated by the stock this week as most of you are too.

BUT.....................

1. We've just come out of a week, that grew our SP by nearly 30%! Following that, there will undoubtedly be some consolidation and I think we've seen some of that this week.

2. With regards debt mas, it may be worth you re-looking at the FY23 presentation and indeed FY2019 backwards - what you'll see is that net debt is now only 2.1 Billion euros and below 2019 levels. Additionally and in fact very important for future capital distribution to shareholders are the leverage ratios and the great news here, is that the net debt leverage ratio is now down to 1.2x vs 1.6x in 2019 and the gross leverage ratio is down to 2.6x and vs 2019 at 3.0x.

So please rest assured that debt is NOT an issue here - this company alongside many others across the world have ALWAYS used debt within their business and as such, they won't stop doing so into the future too. I'm hoping at the AGM in February that they announce a re-introduction of a good quality dividend policy and they certainly should based on the leverage ratios quoted and of course expected to get even better with revenue and profit increases for 2024.

3. Next week we have our CPI print on Wednesday to look forward to and Carnival reports next Thursday too - both of which could help drive our SP through that pesky £6.30 and then beyond.

Finally, what I was pleased with today, was how the SP recovered somewhat into the pm and we 'broke' the flip flop 20p scenario that has blighted us most of this week. Finally, if you've not taken a look, look at the trades at closing - some pretty big numbers and if all 'buys' then it should help start Monday off strong - GLA

WW - I agree with you - this week has pretty much been all over the place - could be that there are some bigger 'off market sales'; 'purchases' taking place which we don't see and would likely explain the 20p swings pretty much on each of the 4 days this week - will only really see this in regulation postings in the coming days.

SKR - The thing to watch out for next week, will be our inflation data next Wednesday and if it's significantly better than forecast, we should fly - certainly hope so. Like others, thought the US would light up our sector, but not catching today. Finally, you quoted some SP's - remember that TERP is £8.40 ish, so until we get back to that figure, which we should have been all year in my book and after the RI had settled, we're not even back to the valuation pre RI and following brilliant results and predicting brilliant results into 2024 too. On the way up to TERP, we need to knock out the short sellers once and for all - GLA

Anyways, another day pretty much done and let's hope tomorrow is a 'building' day rather than another flop downwards and back towards the £6 level - as mentioned a number of times, £6.30 is a strong upper resistance right now and very keen to see it beaten! GLA

Hi all,

So for those interested, the Fed has sounded 'very dovish' tonight on their last rate call for 2023 and for rate cuts into 2024.

Last month when that happened, our share price 'flew' the following day and I simply wonder whether that will be repeated this time around and indeed help us to push through that £6.30 upper barrier that we certainly need to cross to get upward momentum.

So last month, our shares here in the UK 'flew' after the Fed and rather than our own announcement the following week, so again, will be hugely interesting to see any momentum tomorrow - GLA

Hi Roguemale1, Many thanks for posting, although not quite sure why posting in US $?

Also, only wish it was valued at the 33 Billion during the RI!! Clearly down to the 1 in 10 stock consolidation.

As our shares are 507 million in circulation, they've made it a nice and easy one to calculate mcap - so simply round to 500 million and then whatever the SP is - so right now, at £6.22 x 500, mcap is approximately £3.11 Billion.

So certainly better than the recent crazy low of £2 Billion and hopefully looking for a continuing increase.

Interestingly, £6.30 certainly seems like a strong upward barrier currently (our 6 month high actually) and we need to break through that one to be able to get further momentum to the upside and up to £7 and beyond - GLA