Member Info for MikeS02

Many thanks for remembering me!!

With regards Stupmy, I simply blocked him weeks ago and as such, I drop in from time to time to read commentary that actually adds value to me and nice to be remembered.

Both yourself and OSG make the point about Stupmy simply not having any self awareness whatsoever with regards the 'many' who right now are hugely under water - for me to be honest, I think of all those that tapped into the RI at £4.88, albeit around the £5 mark when FX was taken into account and LTH's - for those souls I genuinely feel HUGELY sorry.

As for me, yes like most I'm underwater, but I linked in after the RI, so I'm in a less underwater position than many and undoubtedly the LTH's.

Today was pretty horrendous and like many, I also believe that the SP is being manipulated quite substantially and we'll need to get through this patch to come out the other side.

What I DO KNOW though, is that Tui WILL post an EBIT around the 1.2-1.4 Billion mark on the 6th December and whilst I'm hoping that the SP will recover in a meaningful way before then, I do have confidence that our time will come!!

For those who've lost faith, I totally get it and I've certainly had a number of days where I wanted to get out too - BUT, having looked at many, many stocks before investing back in April, I decided that Tui would and I believe strongly will deliver for us investors accordingly.

GLA

Zccax77 and @hash - thought your commentary was very interesting and as such, thought I'd add a few little views if it helps:

So @hash, totally agree with your summation and actually believe the true and final underlying EBIT for 2023 will be c1.2 - 1.4 Billion euros, which as you say will be TRIPLE their 2022 year end result of 409 million euros - they actually declared 1.039B in Q4 last year and they stated yesterday that this would see a significant increase and hence my range as above (bear in mind to end of Q9, EBIT is sitting at -231 million, which I've taken into account with the above)

zccax77 - comparisons with competitors can be really tricky and especially as Jet2 doesn't actually declare EBIT, they stick with operating profit and profit before tax etc and if I'm honest, would really prefer Tui to do the same going forwards.

Just two things I can share though - so Tui will likely generate 17-18 Billion euros of sales for 2023, whilst Jet2 declared £5 Billion back in March at their full year results - let's say like us, they had a 'scorcher' Summer, then expect sales to come in at say £6-6.5 Billion, but still a 'minnow' really vs Tui as of course is Easyjet etc.

The best I can see to compare to EBIT, is Jet2's Profit before hedging; FX and Tax and that came in at the full year in March at £391 million - so again, assume a strong increase and they may hit £500 million for full year 2023 - still a little way off Tui I would suggest.

Anyway, hope this helps and best

I'll keep this short and them I'm off!!

So we seem destined to remain in the £4's to £5's now until the full results in December, which beggars belief and is a disgrace to us investors.

This pre close statement and indeed all of their city updates have been a disgrace with very limited quality data and loads and loads of verbiage and my worry is that the city guys and gals are now simply looking at the company as a washed up piece of nonsense - it got away with this stuff pre pandemic, but it doesn't cut it anymore in this reality.

Shameful and again beggars belief - the only 'twinkle' of light might be that some analysts might run the numbers and then possibly upgrade the stock accordingly which will help, but not as much as if the BOD had fully owned the numbers in the first place - GLA and signing off!!

Hi Savage,

Just coming back on your divi comment - there won't be a divi for fiscal year 2023 as stated in the RI prospectus back in March.

Now that said, they're clearly going to have 'spare cash' floating around at the end of this fiscal year ending in two weeks time and so what do they do with that. They may well decide to cut even more debt, which I'd be very happy with, but doesn't seem to be their mantra - they are used to living with a certain level of debt and investment in the business from their cash flow and debt, so not sure that this will be priority for them. They may simply invest further in the Company, but again, they've used other routes historically, so not sure they'd take this option either.

What could be 'amazing' and off centre and certainly a shock to markets and indeed myself, is if they were to make a special payment to shareholders, which I believe they're not prevented from doing - so wouldn't that spark the SP - of course, likely only in my dreams eh.

Finally though and back to reality and whether it's part of tomorrow's announcement or whether it's part of the full year announcement on the 6th December, what they could certainly announce is a re-instatement of the dividend policy for fiscal 2024, which again, I think would go down well.

So hope this helps and GLA - just a few hours to wait now and I just hope that the BOD decides to 'push the key messages' and how well this fiscal year will be - oh and finally, they'll certainly beat EBIT from 2019, which was actually the first year they went over to that measure, so that may well be in the statement too

Hi Savage,

Many thanks for your thoughts. Totally agree although have to say that Gladstone do 'play the short game' pretty well and they constantly change either the entry point or of course the stock quantity being shorted etc. I was hoping that next Tuesday and the pre close announcement would hit the shorters 'hard', but as I say in my post of last night, it really depends on whether the statement provides any real nuggets for investors etc to get excited about and for that one, I'm not so sure. They 'could' and I wish they would for example, simply state that underlying EBIT vs 2022 will 'triple' for the full year results - not even quoting actual figures etc, which is highly likely and would give a figure of c1.2 Billion euros vs the c400 million they made in 2022 and of course that would indeed be 'significant' - Oh what a wish eh. Good luck and guess we'll all know next Tuesday

Hi all,

So I've been off this BB for a few weeks now and deliberately so.

Decided to share some comments ref next Tuesday and then will take further time out too.

So it's interesting if you look back at the pre close announcements - in recent years, let's be honest, they've not had much to talk about, whilst pre pandemic, they at least put 'some' numbers in there.

My concern is that they will simply state as they have all year, that underlying EBIT will be 'significantly higher' than 2022 - well, think we all know that, but unless they share 'something' the SP will continue to wallow, which is hugely disappointing!

I'm hoping that there will be something in there that garners the interest of investors etc and which fires up the SP, but having invested just after the RI and like many, simply can't understand why the BOD is so shy of quoting numbers, which we all know will be good - it's why the rest of the airline sector vs us is doing relatively well and because they've given investors visibility of what they' re likely to do - hardly difficult is it!!

So I was going to quote a range of numbers ref likely underlying EBIT; Leverage ratio etc etc, but right now, why bother, because like the half year results; FY Q9 etc, they're not even providing them themselves.

As I say, hopefully there's some nuggets in there, or again we face a pretty cold winter until full year results on the 6th December 2023.

GLA

Hello denby69,

Hope you're very well.

I mentioned a while ago in a post that PSN may well get demoted out of the FTSE 100 and it's come to pass today.

Just looking at history, stocks demoted from the FTSE 100 tend to see a decline in SP of around 20% around the timing of the demotion, so guess will be interesting to see how things develop in the coming weeks - why - because of course many trackers only invest in FTSE 100 companies and following demotion, they will disinvest their holdings.

Of course what happens in the broader market and HB's in general will undoubtedly play their part too, but for me wouldn't be surprised if the SP drops to around the £8 mark in the coming weeks and following demotion

Of course, only my opinion

Hi Clued,

Hope you're well, but guess be careful what you wish for............ just found out that NATS is a public-private venture, with both BA and EZJ in the mix of owners - get your mind around that one and if you're interested please see link below and simply go to the bottom of the page for full ownership details! Hope the information helps

https://www.nats.aero/about-us/company/

Hi all,

Interesting commentary and thought I'd add mine for what it's worth.

I know a couple of people have commented on this and I agree - I think what airlines in particular will regret this year is to give such comprehensive forward guidance that pretty much ties them in to 2023 sale and earnings. I know this might sound strange as the best companies will always do this, but I think right now, in a tricky market, it might backfire - so what do I mean - because EZJ and others have given definitive forward guidance, pretty much 'anything' that may disrupt this is seen as a negative and of course this marks the stock down, as is happening currently, eg wild fire issues; cost of living; interest rate worries etc etc - whenever these flare up in the media, the SP nose dives. Additionally and I actually think this is much more important - if you look at recent companies who have surprised the market, eg Rolls Royce; M&S etc, they get hugely rewarded on their SP - so right now and in a pretty febrile market, it looks like the only way you get a significant uplift in SP is by surprising the market - so the risk of giving such comprehensive forward guidance is that at best you match what you've already said and of course, worst of all, you fail to match and the the SP takes a hit.

My worry, is that this is hanging over the SP and may do so for some time - the BEST thing that EZJ and others can do is re-introduce a divi, which to be honest I think many will and this alone may well stoke the SP going forwards - the downside, is we have to wait a bit of time for these sorts of announcements - clearly only my thinking and GLA

Hi Steve,

Just one final thing to add and them I'm off and won't post anymore in the near term, as I know I'm on the downside of things and people can only stand so much, which I totally get.

When you say PSN is still selling houses, of course they are, as indeed are all HB's - it's the decrease in volume and profits that is the concern and how quickly declines feed into margins; profitability and any suspension of divi's etc etc.

Finally and again just sharing a basic and them I'm 'off' - if people continuously buy as the SP declines and rather than waiting for a confirmed bottom etc, the basic maths are against you - so let's say you buy in at £10 and the price drops to £6, ie a 40% decline, then just to get back to the £10, the SP has to rise by 67% and of course the 'climb back' gets worse the bigger the difference - let's say that the above declines to £5, then a 50% decline becomes a 100% climb back up - apologies if this is really basic stuff, which I know it is, but sometimes, it may help sharing again and now I'm off and GLA in your endeavours

Hi strictly,

Many thanks for coming back.

You're absolutely right that a 'u-turn' by Bailey would indeed light up the SP, certainly in the short term, but I strongly believe that this simply won't materialise until the middle of 2024 if not later.

Why, because whilst the headline inflation rate fell to 6.8% last month, the core inflation rate stayed steady at a 'silly' 6.9% and then of course you had wage increases April - June rising 7.8%.

Against that backdrop, Bailey is certain to continue raising rates and markets are pricing in 6% by the end off this year and markets are rarely wrong on this one!

Additionally, wages rising above 7% whilst great for those getting them, simply keeps inflation 'up', so again think 6% terminal rate is pretty much baked in and even more into early 2024, if core inflation and wages don't get into some sort of good order - we've all heard about wage-price spirals and we're one of the very few countries and likely the only one of the G20 getting close to such a scenario - in that case, we're pretty much shafted across the board.

I understand that this sounds all doom and gloom and to be honest, it probably is and until the BOE actually gets a proper grip and with that, comes more rate increases

Clearly only my view

Hi Pandatron,

They did indeed, but not until a bottom had been reached and many of us believe this share will hit £6 or lower in the coming months as let's be honest, the downturn is only 'just beginning' and likely 2024 will see increasing momentum for HB's to the downside.

The really worrying thing from CN has to be that in just 3 short months, their profit projection for full year 23 has dropped by a THIRD, ie 73M down to c50M and their reservations in recent weeks have HALVED from an initial meagre projection - if that's repeated across the other HB's and why shouldn't it, PSN might not make any profit at all this financial year and as such, the divi will undoubtedly be suspended etc etc.

Have never really understood investors buying on the way down, as you're simply losing money each transaction? For me, it's let the market find a bottom; let the SP rise about 10% to see a fundamental shift in momentum and only then think about investing - clearly only my opinion

Hi denby69,

Good Q, although don't believe any of us could provide a good enough response with regards figures etc and simply because the key thing would be what indeed causes the crash - clearly if bank/financial related, simply go back to 2008. If tech related, then of course you have the dot com bubble to go back to in 1999/2000, but even that is so many years ago and of course tech is in a very different place now, ie they make bundles of cash, when in 1999/2000 they didn't and it was all speculation etc. and so predicting an outcome from a tech crash would be a pretty new phenomenon I would suggest.

That said, whatever the reason, if there was indeed a 'crash', we'd be mired in recession and even depression for a number of years and with significant unemployment etc and have to say, I would NOT want to be invested in any stock whatsoever during that time - clearly only my thinking and hope it helps

Sk59 and Metom,

Totally share your frustration - to me, the one thing that sticks out 'a mile' is that in the current financial environment, which let's be honest is very poor for the UK, ie UK shares have lagged vs the rest of the world shares by a 'ton', that the ONLY thing that seems to move stocks right now, is a 'surprise' - just look at On The Beach; M&S this week alone; Rolls Royce if you want to go back a couple of weeks - all of them have surprised the market, which Tui has single handedly failed to do.

The downside for the flight stocks, eg IAG; Easyjet etc, is that they have highlighted their future earnings, 'way upfront' and again, you have to think that their shares will also simply tread water, because all the good news is already baked in - the only surprise they can share with investors, is if they declare a divi at the year end results, which I believe many will and then and likely only then, will the SP move in a decent way - if they don't, they'll tread water.

Back to us - as shared at the results, Tui WILL have great results and I truly believe - famous last words eh - that they will indeed surprise the market - I'm hoping that their pre close statement on the 19th September starts this off, because again, if we fail to surprise to the upside, then analysts and ii's won't take notice in a market that right now is simply rewarding the surprise winners 'only'.

I agree though sk59, I'm actually giving the stock til end of December to show what it can do, but around the £6 mark at that time and I'm out for sure! GLA and hope this helps and of course it's my thinking only

Hi stevebt and all,

Just thought I'd come back on your thoughts - think the one key thing to feed in Steve, is the role of ii's in all of this - so whilst some see real benefit to ii's holding such a big slice of the pie with regards shares and at 77% it certainly is a big slice, ii's of course can dramatically affect an SP on any given day! So whilst being a blessing from time to time, it can certainly add significant momentum to the downside too by offloading a slice of shares across a day; week; month etc and have no doubts that this is playing into the current downtrend scenario and unfortunately don't see any sense of this changing over the next 12-18 months and until they get a sense that this cycle is bottoming - just my thoughts of course

Hi all,

Just a quick share - so Gladstone has increased its short position slightly from 0.88% to 0.92% and very interestingly, they have lowered their start price from 6.98 euros and now down to 6.47 euros, which was their previous start price - let's hope they get slaughtered really quickly eh!!

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi all,

Many thanks for everyone's thoughts back - appreciated.

One or two comments about querying the rise today - think this is down to mortgage companies announcing cuts to their 2 and 5 year fixed rates that will take place tomorrow, Friday, and which is clearly boosting HB's SP today

So just offering my alternative opinion on the half year results, which I think continue some significant ref flags:

1. Underlying operating margin is HALVED

2. Cash on hand HALVED

3.Profit before tax down 66%

4. EPS down 68%

Usually the first 6 months are the most buoyant for HB's and therefore, it's clearly only going to get worse into Autumn and Winter and with undoubtedly another two interest rate rises before the end of the year.

Expect an unplanned statement at the end of the year, raising the prospect of the company making NO money in the final 6 months and then of course parking the divi too.

Clearly I understand only my opinion

Hi all,

I can see from all the posts that things have gotten a little heated today, which is a shame - EXACTLY why I've kept away until now.

I'll just share one nugget in case you missed it and then I'm 'off' for a bit of time, but thought this might help:

I'll start by saying that whilst I thought the results were 'ok' they certainly weren't what I was looking for and assuming analysts too - the biggie for me though, was again how the board simply stated a significant improvement in EBIT for the full year - USELESS - analysts and us investors want clarity and again, the BOD failed miserably and quite rightly we've been punished 'yet again' today!

The bit I wanted to share though as it's come up in some posts and just wanted to provide a little clarity:

If you go to page 22 of the Q3 PRESENTATION, not the report, you'll see against the line underlying EBIT the 'fact' that in Q4 last year, Tui made 1,039 Billion - this is the very first time they've quoted this figure - in fact, you can't ever get Q4 figures directly - they simply feed them straight into the full year numbers, so releasing it, is a good thing - and against that they're still saying that this figure is to increase 'significantly'!

So a little bit of hope that the figure could be decent at the year end, but we'll have to wait until December, if we want to actually see the final numbers and hope it helps - GLA and signing off

Hi mas,

Many thanks for sharing, but disagree on this one and the 'why' is simple - all the other airline stocks you quote have signalled their 'future' great results on many occasions this year and as such, believe they have to be spectacular or they fall in SP, as they've all done recently. Also, unlike airlines, we have much more to our bow - not just the flights; but a world class holiday side off the business and of course a not too small cruise business too - so much broader in content.

With regards results, let's be honest, Tui have played their cards very close to their chests this year so far, ie rather than projecting year end results which many airlines have done, all Tui have done to date is use words such as 'significant' etc and of course analysts and investors quite rightly want to see the euros accordingly - NO ONE expects anything really from Tui right now - their H1 results lets be honest were pretty useless and together with their messaging etc.

So if they do deliver what OTCDS has shared and I've provided a bit of commentary back too, then I truly believe that this will positively 'shock' the market; investors; analysts etc into taking a very positive look at Tui tomorrow - yes, they need to deliver, but as mentioned before, they've already shared that the UK had it's best 'ever' Easter and in Germany in June, they were already ahead of 2019 bookings, as declared by the German CEO - ALL of which falls into Q3 - have confidence - we've all waited some time for this and if Tui delight the market tomorrow, we WILL fly - GLA