Member Info for MikeS02

strictly,

many thanks for sharing your views.

not sure i agree with your thesis and not sure you do either - you quote you're 'purely rear view mirror' and yet in your first posting you pretty much '**** off' nationwide for being 6 months out of date - which is it? also you share that people should check out youtube ref what's happening now - why based on your thesis as it's useless isn't it?

also, whilst you might not want to look through the front windscreen, many others do and often get it right and surely looking into the future is as important as in the past, if not more so - whilst you might not always get the future right, important points 'right now' surely paint the future - high interest rates and only getting higher; house prices already on the way down; mortgage applications will be a 'disaster' for june when they're published and the coming months as rates continue to rise to 6% and meaning many less homes sold by psn and other hb's etc etc - so you can't simply live in the past, i would suggest and i think you're sticking your head in the sand in not recognising the developing reality, which of course is fine if that's what you want to do. with psn in particular, they will build max 9k homes this year vs 14.9k last year - what does that tell your rear view mirror?

guess all i'm trying to share is that your philosophy of rear view mirror and ignoring the current points of how the market is developing because that's exactly what you're suggesting, is in my mind and i know my mind only, fatally flawed - it's how investors get caught out and ultimately fail - again, just my musings i understand

finally, you constantly mention that the sp of hb's isn't important to you? really? how did you build upon your capital since investing in 2000? what enabled you to invest in other hb's if it wasn't for the increases in sp and hence your capital, enabling you to invest? i get the fact that divi's are hugely important and let's be honest, between capital increase and divi payments why else would anyone invest in a company - certainly not for the love of it, as 90% of investors lose money accordingly.

so whilst you may be lucky enough to have made a small fortune off the back of hb's since 2000 and huge well done accordingly, again this is rear view and don't fall into the trap of expecting the same into the future - just my thinking i know

finally, finally, you state that all hb's have strong balance sheets - of course that's absolutely true until they don't! any hb that is building and selling half of last year's performance and maybe even 25% once the year has finished, will not have a strong balance i would suggest - but hey, wait until the results come out next year, in your rear view mirror and see where things stand

Hi all,

If you're at all interested in how things have changed in 3 short months, take a look at all our commentary around the results announcement in March 2023 - to help its pages 24-30 - all interesting stuff and shows a range of views, but equally shows many believed that the price had bottomed at the £12 mark - as I've shared many times and I know that others have too - in this environment and market, please be careful

Strictly and stevebt - Many thanks for posting and I really enjoy reading your thoughts - that said on the two here, not quite sure who you're trying to convince - sounds to me, that you're trying to convince yourselves?

I know it's SO EASY to sit back as a non investor etc and throw in pipe bombs etc, but maybe simply accept a different point of opinion, which strictly, you're usually very open to and rather than feeling a need to challenge back?

You both state about doom mongering and the papers etc, but that's the whole point, regular 'Joe's and Josephine's' out there rely on the media to shape their thinking and whether you like it or not, it's pretty black right now.

But hey, don't just look at the doom mongers, look at those who've held HB's stock and are offloading in their droves and by much brighter people than myself for sure - PSN is at a ten year low right now and surely that tells you a lot about investor sentiment.

Guess what I'm getting at, is right now, the doom mongers are winning whether you like it or not - you state that home prices haven't gone off a cliff right now - that's correct at only a -3.5% decline yr on yr, but many posters here have said it will take 2 years or so and again you don't seem to want to accept such opinion?

I certainly try and respect all opinions and as I say, as a non stock holder, it's easy for me to make the case for further downside, but maybe just accept one thing - this is simply the starting point and will likely materialise over the next 18 months or so - into 2025, we'll know the answer

Hi Stupmy,

Many thanks for coming back and really appreciated - tried to educate myself a bit more too with regards 'gaps' and as you say, there's lots of different types of gaps and of course many reasons as to why they may or may not close over time.

Carnival has had an 'amazing' ride in the last 3 weeks, but have no doubt it's very much predicated on the analyst upgrades I shared with you last week and as such, more have followed and of course the price has continued to rise, which to my thinking and based on the upgrades is exactly right.

Also as shared previously, believe we too could be in this arena, but to do so, we need an 'excellent' update for Q3 in August, which I believe we'll get, but off the back of that, or even some time in July, would be great to get some upgrades from analysts for ourselves - June was certainly a 'choppy month' for our SP and the last two weeks in particular - interestingly, I noticed some quite big sells yesterday in the range of £50k, but again assuming LTH's bailing etc and as such, may help stabilise things into next week and beyond.

Stupmy - Many thanks ref the gaps and I'm a little intrigued by what you say.

On the 23rd June, you mentioned that there were two gaps remaining to be filled at a level of £5.25 and £5.17 approx - as we all know on the 27th of this week, the stock fell to a low point of £524.5 and so surely, this should have filled one of the gaps?

Would be good to understand just a 'little' of how these gaps have maintained in the face of the big leg down on the 27th and if they still remain, maybe the rationale isn't quite as clear as imagined?

Would be good to get thoughts back when you can

Hi Golitha,

Many thanks for the update on Voleon and totally agree - seems a little strange to say the least.

That said, it may all be to do with the closing of the half year at the end of Friday this week - to be honest, that's what I was thinking about yesterday with regards the steep loss for no good reason and especially as the airlines and cruise companies have had a strong start to the week, so I see today, as simply catching a bit back up.

As I say though, there may be more skullduggery to come in the final two days of the half year - I really hope not and then I'm further hoping that into the start of Q3 for trading companies, that we may well be part of the portfolio going forwards - if so, next week in particular could be a strong week - can only hope eh - for me, will only start to feel 'comfortable' when we get to the £7 mark ie that the RI has at last shaken out fully; the ii's and LTH's have shaken out fully for those who want to offload and we get ourselves onto a much more sure footing in terms of daily and weekly trading

Hi strictly,

Always find your posts enlightening - thanks!

Just to pick you up a little on what you post ref PSN's commentary at the AGM. I guess for me and others, you're quoting information quite a bit out of date with where the market has moved to, ie rates higher and market is assuming 'much higher at 6%'; they were just starting to see green shoots at the start of the spring season, which we now know has been killed off and by other HB's updates recently; optimistic about 2024 - again just a few short months on and suggest that their view on this one too will have changed quite a bit based on current reality and to the downside.

So of course we'll all find out in August at the half year results, but think we can simply park and forget what the board said back then, when the UK environment for HB's has changed pretty dramatically since then and facing more downside with further rate rises etc

Finally and I know that I've shared this one a few times now, but it would not surprise me in the least if in August or certainly in their Q3 results later in the year, that they have to take a cut to their landbank valuation, which would then hit the SP pretty hard too

I realise this is simply my ramblings and sense of what's materialising

Chumba,

Totally agree - two weeks ago this was at £6.10 and apart from last Friday when all tourist/flight/holiday stocks were hit hard, Tui has pretty much been on its own moving downwards and for no good reason! Totally agree that there is manipulation going on - shameful eh! Let's hope over time that whomever is causing the manipulation ends up losing LOTS of money!!

Hi Stille,

Don't think that's true - not saying that people aren't waiting for jabs etc, but their impact won't be on Summer bookings and remember our fiscal year ends at the end of September 2023.

Workers, who represent the vast majority of our bookings I'm assuming, will want a Summer holiday with their families etc etc and as such, believe that when they announce Q3 results in the middle of August, they will undoubtedly be strong - don't forget they already announced they best ever Easter bookings, which fall into Q3 reporting and I assume they will also give an update on Summer bookings too, as of course by then they will be half way through school Summer hols and would expect that update to be strong.

Whilst I get what you're saying about September and October, again all I would say, is that the timing is identical to previous years and as such will be taken into account with regards yr on yr movement.

Like yourself and many, I know we wish for the stock to move considerably higher and even today was disappointing in that we opened 20p higher to Friday's close and then dwindled away during the day, which is pathetic really.

Let's see if tomorrow can help and the coming days, but we certainly need both the UK market and the DAX to be positive I'd suggest to get to a decent place

Many thanks Giraffe and you too

Hi Registerme, Many thanks for sharing the link, which I read with interest and certainly helped with my knowledge.

This probably sounds 'bleeding obvious', but from what your link and history shows, is that following a housing boom, which of course we've had up til last year, then all you need to 'tank' things further is a recession and people losing their jobs - although interestingly, the 1950's according to the link, was also predicated on high interest rates.

The thing about high rates is that 'us' in our 50's/60's lived through some of the history quoted, whilst those in their 30's and even early 40's certainly haven't and you have to think for them, current rates are pretty scary! Add to that current affordability ratios and even I'd be scared!

I do think that with recent crises, that governments and central banks around the world, have learned how to prevent things like a 'depression', but it does feel like we have very anaemic growth right now and could tip into recession reasonably easily - doesn't mean loads losing their jobs, but if that starts to materialise, then yes, would suggest that HB's are in for much further pain and don't think we'll know either way for another 12-18 months. If this doesn't materialise, then think the HB's SP will simply stay pretty static and until we all can see better days ahead

Giraffe, I'd be a little careful what you wish for - I was a NWG holder last year, but sold out last year too and having held the stock for 15 years.

I certainly get where you're coming from with regards a 'bottomless pit of money', but there are significant downsides to that scenario:

1. The government steps in and slaps a huge 'special' payment to the Treasury coffers and just like the oil companies - it's happened in the past and you can already see the headlines and those screaming for a bank divi IF they post bumper divi's etc at the half year

2. There HAS to come a time when mortgage payers; credit card holders start defaulting and based on the high interest rates - the ONE thing keeping this at bay currently is the strong labour market - ANY turn in that, would be hugely scary for banks profits

3. With the base rate at 5%, you have to think that new mortgage agreements will fall off a cliff and it wouldn't surprise me at all at the half year results if this is what analysts take a close look at and any deterioration, will be seen as a negative impact on future growth prospects for the banks etc - just like they did at Q1 results and the amounts of depositor outflows, ie seems as though analysts are simply looking for the negatives right now and rather than rewarding the positives

If I'm honest and of course as a non holder of stock it's really easy for me to say this isn't it - but I actually think that the banks SP's have had their 'hay day' about 9 months ago - why, because markets tend to anticipate etc etc and that's what they did back when - now, they're anticipating lots of negative stuff and I don't think that that will go away anytime soon.

Finally and based on what I've shared above, I think ALL banks will likely post 'minimum' increases for divi payments at the half year and so for NWG, likely 4p-5p range (clearly I know they paid a special divi last year at the half year, although that was a total rip off, let's be honest when WE were funding the 'special' and as such, think they will only declare a slight rise in their regular one). They 'may' continue with further buybacks, but have to say that I'm one of those 'very sceptical' people that this is simply throwing good money away and rather than boosting further the coffers of those owning the stock in the first place - simply take a look at the current reality! Oh and as you can gather and based on some of my whinges above, I sold out accordingly

Ok, so that's all over - the Wagner mercenaries have been told by their leader to fall back to their Ukranian field positions, following a brokered deal via the Belarusian guy.

So with all that drama sorted, it sadly means that the Ukranian war goes on!

Closer to home though and with this cleared up, you would think that with the agreement with the banks brokered by Hunt, that Monday might be a strong day for us - onwards and upwards eh

Hi all,

Hope everyone is keeping well and enjoying the sunshine!

So a couple of things that may move the markets here in the UK on Monday and hopefully for the better and our SP too:

1. So it looks as though the agreement between Hunt and the banks has gone down well and as such, should really help to alleviate many hundreds off thousands of people and families facing a significant increase in their mortgages - markets in the UK should undoubtedly see this as helpful and beneficial and whilst it largely helps over the next 6-12 months, any help I'm sure will be hugely appreciated etc and should help people and families not just with their costs, but also to enjoy their holidays too! As we also know, once things like this are started, they're pretty easy to keep going over time, so whilst it may be initially a 6-12 month scenario, could easily see it being extended if needed

2. You may have seen on the news this morning that Wagner, the mercenary head in Russia has taken over the army HQ in Russia itself and is basically lining up a rebellion and even a coup. Clearly the next 24/48 hours will determine what happens next, but you have to think that those in the Russian army and the conscripted ones in particular, are so fed up to the back teeth, that they may well join Wagner and/or simply drop arms against him etc. Could this even topple Putin, who knows, but of course it could be hugely volatile and may really help markets or terrify them too? So this one, not so sure of the impact come the opening of Asian markets Sunday night and then ours Monday morning - clearly hoping that it is the first major step in reversing the Ukranian war - wouldn't that be amazing!

So as I say, just sharing.............

Hi Stupmy,

I know we've shared a few messages today - don't like to do loads, but today feels a little different anyway.

What a pretty disastrous day all around for travel/tourism/holiday stocks today eh and unfortunately, it also feeds into the pattern in the last 3 or 4 weeks of a decent start to the week and then Thursday and Friday's sell off, often, although as I say, today was poor for all - here's to Monday and a strong start recouping - we hope!

With regards your specific about Carnival - please see link below and whilst I don't actually see much value in reading The Motley Fool, at least he supplies information in a clear way - as you'll see, the analyst upgrades were a week past Monday and by the end of the week, shares were up 20%!! Hope it helps

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/16/why-carnival-stock-jumped-this-week/

Hi Stupmy,

Surprised you're comparing Carnival, after it received a double upgrade last week, so of course it would fly and as such, won't show such weakness in the short term etc.

A double upgrade or indeed a single upgrade like Deutsche a couple of weeks ago is exactly what we desperately need, but if anything like this comes our way, will undoubtedly have to wait until Q3 numbers in August is my thinking

Hi Stupmy and Stille,

Many thanks for thoughts back.

As always in life, it's about what's most important to you and your family and from what I've read and coming out of Covid and lock down, 'passing' on a holiday and travel appears to be the very last thing that people want to give up.

So whilst the reaction this week to rate increases and concern on discretionary spending, the travel/holiday/tourism bit looks well anchored and supported.

As mentioned though, there likely comes a crossroads, whereby people have cut pretty much everything and then they look to cut their planned holiday, which I totally understand.

That said, I don't actually believe that this year will be the 'pain' and it will be into 2024, when the real pain hurts and we possibly go into recession etc - believe this point will be recognised by investors into the near term and hence support for our SP

Hence why I and suspect many will keep their faith in this stock for now and very likely take a good long look later this year and into early 2024, to see where things have settled.

Sorry, should have also said that the DAX has had an awful week this week and as our shares are in effect 'split' over two trading systems, then there's always a knock on when one is significantly struggling.

Again, if and when the DAX stabilises and hopefully into next week and the end of the month and half year in trading terms, let's see where we go. Finally, some stability in the US markets would undoubtedly help too and simply from a sentiment viewpoint.

Stupmy and Golitha,

Whilst I and others find your commentary around technicals interesting from time to time, you surely must know and understand that what we've seen this week is simply all about interest rate rises and much more importantly, the possible impact of these on discretionary spending - nothing else.

To back that up, ALL stocks relating to travel; tourism; holidays have been hit this week and it's simply those holders of the stock who have decided they don't want to be in them anymore based on what I share above.

Once those holders have gone and hopefully today will be the end of it, then the share price will look attractive to other investors etc etc and so I'm firmly in the 'mas' camp on this one

Sharefall - I don;'t believe that people are catastrophising or suggesting a collapse - I think a number on this BB together with myself are suggesting that there is further downside to come and for the following reasons:

1. With rates now at 5% and likely to top 6% by the end of the year and as predicted by market pricing, you have to think that this will be 'terminal' to FTB's which Persimmon in particular rely upon - why would ANYONE get into the housing market with such huge rates staring them in the face? The tried and tested theory of 'we have a huge housing shortage etc' is waring thin when rates are so high and remember FTB's simply haven't operated in this sort of rate environment, so why would any take the plunge? Don't think they will

2. Persimmon will declare their half year results in July and you have to think with the current rate scenario that they will announce a suspension of any further divi this year and likely next year too - obviously a downer with regards the SP

3. Unfortunately I believe that a number of analysts will post downgrades to the PSN SP and just look what Jeffries have done today - in 3 short months, they have declared a 25% reduction in their target price and based on today, you have to think that a number of analysts will continue this downtrend too

So as I say, don't think we're catastrophising at all - think we're simply being realistic and based on where rates are going to in the relatively short term.

Everyone will make their own judgement and as always, time ill tell...........