Member Info for MikeS02

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that one of the best ways for the Tui SP to increase was for the BOD's to get great news out into the market and today, the CEO of Germany did just that and wow, what a reaction!

So lots more please.....

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TUI-AG-470539/news/Tui-supports-travel-stocks-guest-numbers-partly-above-2019-levels-44107773/

Hi Trouts and all,

Hugely interesting debate in the last two days and really enjoyed reading all of the commentary.

You raise one final interesting point for me and I know that many others have raised this argument too and that's about rental vs home ownership.

I have one simple Q for those in that field of thinking and it's this - IF the huge rental prices, which I agree are crazy etc, are real showstoppers to families around the UK, then WHY haven't millions upon millions already switched to buying a new home? I ask this as a genuine Q, as it's clear that right now, rental families are simply not converting to owning a home and as such, why should this change - thoughts would be hugely welcome

OTCDS2023 - Huge thanks for sharing - great news always appreciated

Hi all,

Thought you'd like confirmation that Voleon has already closed its new short position, leaving only Gladstone, which seems like an anomaly to me and more based on its position during the RI - that said, if not, they're losing 'big time'!

Enjoy - and also remember that only just two months ago, Tui was the biggest shorted stock within Germany and now it's 24th and purely on the basis of Gladstone

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi again, Unfortunately we're not in a position to follow the Fed, which as you say is likely to pause tomorrow. The key reason is that the headline inflation print in the US is 4% as of today, whilst we're still above 8%, so double - more importantly, our core inflation read is 6.8% vs the US at 5.2% - so whichever way you look at it, we're WAY out of kilter and hence why the markets are pricing in some pretty aggressive moves by the BOE in the coming months as quite frankly it's still behind the curve and we have the worst inflation read in the G7 alongside Italy! So don't believe the BOE has any choice later in the month, but to raise and the only Q is 0.25% or 0.5% - as I mention below, markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a 0.5% increase, which of course won't be great for the headlines and the reality of those looking for mortgages or looking to re-mortgage

So interesting this evening - Voleon who only opened up their short position a couple off weeks ago, have changed their starting 'short position price' from 6.07 to 6.67 euros and they've also shaved off 0.1% off their position. So the overall short position for Tui now stands at 1.55% of stock outstanding and as per the link below.

Oh and finally, based on the 6.07 euro position first opened, they LOST pretty much 1 million euros - hip hip

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi findingmyfeet - today was nothing to do with wage inflation in my opinion - much more driven as were all the other HB's by the market pricing in a terminal interest rate of 6% by next February and the impact that can have on the HB market. Also, unfortunately Bailey was given his thoughts to one of the parliamentary committees this pm and to be honest, whenever he talks things tend to tank - he hasn't got much of a clue, although it's getting very close to him raising interest rates at the next meeting later in June by a hefty 0.5% and so again, not such great news - hope this helps and of course, only my opinion

Hope everyone is good and I continue to read posts here with interest.

Thought today would be the right time to post this message and of course I totally understand that this is only my ramblings and for those who've read me before on this BB, I'm on the negative side of things when it comes to HB's at the present.

So do I believe that in 2 or 3 years time that Persimmon and other HB's will be more valuable than today - Yes I do.

What I believe many are missing though, is the trough that occurs in the meantime - I read continuously recently on this BB to fill your boots and it's a bargain etc - well of course it's only a potential bargain to those new investors, but only if the price settles at this level and I'm afraid I don't believe that it will and it may have a considerable downside from here and possibly the £6-£7 mark.

Why? So the biggest is a fall off in reservations and buys which two HB's in the space of 7 days have flagged and any thought of a Spring significant boost appears to be non existent right now.

Secondly and think this is also a main consideration, is the psychology of buying a new property - it's a 'massive' deal for many and especially for FTB's which are the mainstay of Persimmon in particular. Many thought that rates couldn't get back too the 'chaos' times of last October, but as of today they are within 0.2% of that level and continuing to move up - I saw 5% rates as a barrier, but 6%!!

Finally, if these rate scenarios continue to increase; confidence will continue to decline; bookings and reservations will slide and as I posted a few months ago, it would not surprise me in the least if later this year, HB's start declaring significant decreases to their land bank valuations at which stage the SP will tank further.

I know this is extremely gloomy, but as I say in the title, please be careful and whilst I know and understand that many will think I'm on a different planet, guess time will tell

Great to see that Voleon has already LOST a Million - great news and hopefully they'll lose much more!! Link at bottom

What is interesting with the markets, is that with the S&P getting into bull market territory last Thursday, an analysis by Bloomberg show that once this occurs - and it was after a c250 day bear market - the longest since 1948, which quite frankly amazed me as it didn't feel as long as that - then 92% of the time, the S&P over the next 12 months moves at least 12% higher and can make 20% plus - only two times it didn't was the financial crisis and Covid. So it's clear that sentiment is shifting to the positive and as we all know, if the US market moves higher, then us in Europe and indeed the rest of the world tend to follow.

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi Stupmy,

Many thanks for your input, but I disagree - if we hold at the £5.50 mark by the end of the day, believe that's a really good sign, in that it's trading at the top end of it's recent trading range and as such, it suggests a good leg upwards into the near term.

Also, please remember that this week and if it stays above the £5.50 level, that it's had 4 days out of 5 on the rise (not had such a run since the RI) and that's against a backdrop of no real movement/decline in the DAX and FTSE 250 and where other travel and leisure stocks have declined too.

Clearly the upgrade by Deutsche really helped in our move higher and with further upgrades to Buy together with a decent move higher on the DAX and FTSE 250, believe we'll get to the £6 mark pretty quickly

Hi donalb,

Huge thanks and have book marked it for future reference! On the 'real LSE' site, looks like their market cap calculation is a day behind and hence the £2733B quoted which pretty much ties in with yesterday's close - many thanks again and really appreciated

Apologies for all my posts today, but thought you'd like to read the link below:

https://www.aol.co.uk/airline-saves-day-bridesmaid-forgets-163458038.html

Hi all,

Wonder if anyone can help me with this query?

So have been looking at the Market Cap of Tui this evening and I'm at a bit of a loss.

Have looked at several sites - HL; Yahoo Finance; Apple iPhone Finance and on this BB and all state the Market Cap as £1.857B?

Now I know that we have 507 million shares in circulation and at a value of the closing price today of £5.50, surely the Market Cap should be £2.789B? (507 x 5.5) - simple right?

So why the disconnect?

Really sorry if this is basic stuff - it's nothing to do with euros vs £'s; it's nothing to do with 'catch up' of the closing price and I don't even think it's because somewhere in the calculation they are discounting the Russian's outstanding stake of 10% ish which I believe is frozen, so if anyone knows, would you mind sharing.

It may well be staring me in the face, but right now, I'm stumped and hence the request for help

Huge thanks as always

Sorry, Link as below

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi donalb and all - Don't think it's a short squeeze, as nothing has changed on the short side of things - please see updated link as below - what I LOVE though is how much they're losing and have to think if the momentum continues to the upside that we'll see one or both close their positions pretty quickly - think this is simply what I mentioned yesterday - it's starting to break out, but be a little patient - to break out 'conclusively' it needs to remain above the £5.50 mark for the rest of the week

So the last 2 days have been very interesting at the open - both days have seen opening bids around the £5.47 - £5.53 mark and we haven't had two such back to back days at that level since the RI. So it feels as though things are starting to get to a point where there will be a break out - as previously shared it's the mid £5.40's to £5.50 that is a clear upper level and it has been since the RI - on several occasions, including the last two days, the SP has simply bounced off those levels. What IS different though is that on previous occasions, it's been a one day 'wonder' and not a two day scenario like the last two. One day and I believe it's very close - it will open at the £5.50 level and stay there - what we really need to help with this, is a solid market day or two for the DAX and FTSE 250 and once we get to that level and crucially hold that level for a day or two, then we'll break out accordingly - so come on eh.............

I know it's only one day - but as they say, one day at a time - but I'm always really happy when an SP moves pretty much against the market - so delighted today to see us still up against a falling DAX and more importantly Easyjet and IAG, which are both pretty flat

Hi Savage - Million dollar Q of course. As I've been sharing from looking at previous RI's and what happens beyond the first few days and weeks, we need to get beyond the 7 week timeframe to see how things are really panning out and the end of this week, is end of week 7. So as shared below, there's clearly ongoing ii and LTH activity still happening today and likely this week - hopefully beyond that and I'm keeping faith that this may start into next week, then we can hopefully see 'regular trading' and once that happens, I can't see any reason why the SP shouldn't move towards TERP in the near term. Famous last words I know, but of course the broader market sentiment will also make a considerable difference and so if this stays 'on our side' in the coming weeks, then again a positive to me

Certainly quite big volume this morning too. Can only think that the IATA conference over in Turkey is encouraging some investors to take a look etc - but looking at the trades, there's clearly either some ii's still selling stock at tranches of c£20k or LTH's still offloading too. Interestingly it still 'bounces' off the mid £5.40 mark and it's clearly a key barrier to a break out - if we get into the £5.50's and hold there a day or two, believe a break out will follow and quite a big break out

Many thanks for sharing OTCDS2023