Member Info for MikeS02

Ok as expected you have one way of thinking which of course you think is the only way of thinking, but it's not, as evidenced by loads of companies across the world; loads of analysts and loads of institutional investors buying into such stock. Oh and for the record, IAG actually quote EBITDA on it's opening page for investors! Interesting you're not coming back on the debt argument anymore and because there isn't one; dividends paid whilst having 6 Billion of debt because it's not an issue; leverage ratio; quality of the board etc etc - why, because the facts provided speak for themselves and you have nowhere to go

C - Thanks for sharing the YouTube link - interesting stuff - but we are where we are and EBITDAR as I'm sure you know is commonplace amongst hotels and airlines across the world, ie the world of Tui.
So really doesn't matter if you like it or not, Tui has and will continue to use this metric going forwards as will many others and as per the link below - of course if you don't like it, which you don't, then good for you

https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/ebitdar/

C - Why not take a look at both of the links eh, which you clearly haven't done - they've dealt with debt at over 6 BILLION euros for years - so afraid the figure you quote is simply a drop in the ocean.
Also they have bank facilities in place til July 2024 and their convertible bonds don't mature until 2028 - loads of time to renegotiate great terms etc
So as I say, READ the links and then actually come back with some challenge that is actually worthy

Sorry, not sure why the 2017 Factbook link doesn't work below - will try again and hope out helps:

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2017/FY17-TUI-Group-Factbook_vFINAL-WEBSITE.pdf-6f67ee720897e20d262db12e53bd884b.pdf

So I know that the debt issue ref Tui has come up a lot on this board.
As some have said though and I simply wanted to add to that commentary, is that Tui has always had debt - it uses it for investment opportunities; it includes its lease and pension liabilities in its debt figure and clearly for them and indeed investors and big institutions it's never been an issue, so my simply Q is why should it be now?
What's particularly interesting to me is how the board look at it's debt - so they follow a leverage ratio, which is simply total debt divided by EBITDAR (IAS17) - that's it - so clearly a top line improvement in Revenue will lower the leverage ratio pretty significantly and indeed in the recent prospectus for the rights issue - they state that the actions undertaken will take the LR back to 3x, which is where they feel comfortable - they set a lower limit at 2.25x and an upper limit of 3x.
To help everyone understand what this actually means, I enclose a copy of the factbooks which Tui very kindly produce every year and for you to look at 2016 and 2017 -if you go to page 11 for 2016 and page 15 for 2017, you'll see exactly what I mean - thought I'd use data from a few years ago for ref
Oh and by the way, for both these years, ordinary shares totalled 584 million, so higher than now and in both years they paid a dividend - 2016 was 39.63c and 2017 40.89c
So for me the key outtakes are:
1. Very used to living with debt and indeed it's clearly part of their business model, which as I say both analysts and big ii's are fine with and have been for many years
2. Based on the leverage ratio, we're clearly getting close to the business announcing a reinstatement of a dividend - would be great if announced on the 10th for the end of the year - the one thing I don't quite understand and it would be great if anyone else does to share their thinking - with the RI complete and the German government fully paid back, they retain a KFW credit line of 870 million (reduced from 2.1B prior to the RI) and so I'm not sure if this still precludes a reinstatement or not - they've never drawn this credit line and so I may be over playing it?
3. I have full trust in the board of directors - the CEO has been with the business a good amount of time and was previously their FD before taking on the CEO position back in October 2022 - so of course, he understands all the numbers etc and would it be a surprise in his first year as CEO to show what he can really do - I think he will and as I say, gives me great confidence in the future

I know I've rambled - please see links below to factbooks:

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2016/Factbook-December-2016_FINAL.pdf-41cb4238afe7cf59687bdfdac02f2263.pdf

https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/6_Reports-and-presentations/Presentations/2017/FY17-TUI-Group-Factbook_vFINAL-WEBSITE.pdf-6f67ee720897e20d262db12e53bd

Greylady - Whilst a number of people comment on the movement of big ii's and to be honest, that's way out of my league etc - some things certainly do interest me and this week what I've found very interesting is that in the last few days, you can see amounts of £15-£25k of stock being sold at intervals of every 5 minutes or so, if not even more frequently and so clearly the big players are still selling stock back into the market at a pretty nifty pace - once this dwindles and stops, then of course the downward momentum dwindles and we should then see a decent recovery if I'm reading this correctly

So just wanted to share for those that care and are invested that whilst it's been a crappy week for sure, the low on Monday was £5.05, so we end the week flat so to speak and again, whilst vs the high for the week of £5.42 that's pretty pathetic, we shouldn't lose too much sleep. Clearly bouncing off and around the £5 mark and as investors find a floor for the stock - if it holds that until the half year results and a time when Tui can actually declare some numbers and provide some commentary (currently in the black out period), then we should be fine and on an upwards path from there - just sharing and really don't want loads of commentary back from the so called rampers/derampers - to be honest had my fill of any and as I'm sure genuine investors have too

C - You're message below simply shows your lack of any class whatsoever

equality - Sorry, but your rationale just doesn't make sense and for the following reasons:
1. Do you REALLY believe that big institutions would have touched the RI had it been a so called value trap? As we all know, the big players MAKE money not lose it - also, not only did they all take up their RI's, but many bought even more from the rump - as I say, hardly institutions running for the door eh
2. You say you have no idea why the share was valued so much in the past - but that's exactly right - you have no idea, but again the big institutions will know and I'd rather follow them thanks very much
3. Unless I'm mis-reading your final point about reset 1 - you've quoted the RI price exactly, so suggest this shows that those responsible for setting the RI price got it spot on?
What you and C constantly miss is:
1. Market sentiment - the shares have been hit hard this week, because the FTSE is down 5 days on the trot and the DAX 4 out of 5 days - I know that Tui is in the 250, but still sentiment plays a big part
2. As Greylady and others have pointed out - some institutions and likely those that bought into the rump, are selling for some profits and that's totally normal
3. This week has seen no news directly from Tui and assuming this is because it's 'black out' ahead of the half year results, which is unfortunate - let's see come the half year results on the 10th May

Think this I a really good sign, ie big institutional investors off loading but in a controlled way - not great for us as it helps to keep the price down, but over time and as more of these unwind their positions that they want to, then the downside drag will disappear - think if we stay above the £5 mark into the middle of next week, interest and momentum will start to build ahead of the half year results on the 10th May and which will be positive - just a few days to get through

Greylady - May I commend you for keeping tabs on this - you've called a lot of 'good stuff' recently - please continue

All this could be a false dawn - BOE will undoubtedly raise interest rates on 11th May again and this time around if it's 50 basis points, take cover! We have the highest inflation of any of the G20 and it's sticky and staying high much longer - Bailey knows he needs to get his finger out and as I say, 0.25 is baked in; 0.5 not out of the ballpark. Most analysts now believe the base rate will have to get above 5% by the Autumn - hardly conducive to any house builder hitting their much lowered numbers, or pulling in FTB's - of course, only my opinion and we'll see

Link as below:

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Stupmy - You're far too generous in your commentary ref C - how can he be with all the vitriol about the company and us investors. Actually I don't believe he has any investments whatsoever and as shared below, I really couldn't care less about the idiot

C, as you're now called and I totally agree! Sick to death of you simply posting nonsense - I simply can't be bothered to provide a link - I use Golitha's link and within that, they provide the movement plus and minus of the open positions and since they started. If you had any self respect and indeed knowledge, you'd take a look yourself and then post a link showing your reality and challenge back - Oh and finally, I really couldn't care less what you say anymore - you're repetitive; boring; tedious and C suits you so well

Just sharing an update - so another 'short' company has closed its position and leaving just two with open positions in the German market - Tui has now gone from the most shorted company in the German stock market during the RI to now 16th position and with 1.82% of its shares being shorted - the top 2 between them have lost £11.21 million to date and may they lose LOADS MORE eh

c2645sg
As you're intent on posting, here's again some facts that you seem intellectually too challenged to know or find out:
1. Do you really believe that anyone posting here can influence the share price - hmmmm - me don't think so
2. German payback was fraction of the 1.8 Billion - well if you assume 750 million euros is peanuts, maybe, but not most of us normal thinking people and to put all of this to bed, see below for what exactly the 1.8 billion will be spent on and directly from the initial Tui document:

The Company intends to use the net proceeds of the Offering of approx. €1.75 billion to reduce interest costs and debt. As previously agreed with the WSF, the €420.0 million convertible Silent Participation I made available by the WSF and the outstanding €58.7 million 2020/2026 Bonds with Warrants, including all warrants, issued to the WSF and including accrued interest at a total market value of around €750 million will be repaid in full. Additionally, the net proceeds will be used for the full repayment of current drawings un- der the KfW facility. As of 23 March 2023 these amounted to around €440 million. With the remaining net proceeds of approx. €568 million the current drawings under the €1,454 million Cash Facility will be reduced to approx. €870 million. As of 23 March 2023 the drawings under this facility amounted to around €1,438 million. In addition, the Company intends to significantly re- duce the €2.1 billion credit line under the KfW facility to €1.1 billion.

equality - wish people would read up before posting nonsense - so the board made it VERY clear during the announcement of this most recent RI, that there would be no more RI's announced. So unless they're lying and why would they, you have to take their word eh. Also, they've lived with debt for years and still been profitable and paid a divi and highly rated as a company with 'rich' valuations, so why would that change either, with this RI reducing debt back to pre pandemic levels. As I say, please read up before posting eh

Hi both, thanks for trying to resolve etc . Greylady and just for clarity - my understanding is that all shorts are against the German listed stock, ie none in London at all

Golitha/Greylady - Would either of you be able to clarify why the shorts figure provided by Golitha and myself runs at 2.83%, whilst Greylady's runs at over 8% - can't be both correct? Is it to do with open vs closed positions I wonder and therefore which one is correct??