Member Info for MikeS02

Hi, Just as a final piece of information on this subject - just re-checked the RI timeline and Tui will announce on the 18th both the RI uptake and any rump remaining, so 18th will certainly be an interesting day

Hi Stupmy, Totally agree with your sentiment ref this board - with regards the price, I have a different view - so I actually believe that the low of £5.39 achieved last Wednesday will in fact turn out to be the low - whilst Tuesday and Wednesday could still be a little choppy, I do sense that momentum has changed to the upside - interestingly, you just need to look at the trades shown on this board and up until Tuesday, it was a flood of red - then Wednesday afternoon, you could see some decent buys and by Thursday, a lot more significant buys, which also continued into the close - stocks are very often driven by momentum and I believe I saw that change materialise last Wednesday/Thursday and so I believe that momentum will continue to build and especially if the overall market is positive too. The rump I actually believe will be small too - just look at how the rights 'plunged' and then caught a bid on Thursday - clearly people and more likely corporates were simply mopping these up and to take up the rights - as such, believe the RI results when they are announced will actually be strong and with a small rump for the 18th onwards. Then when the shares come together from he 24th - believe by this time, the shares will be going into that day around the £7 mark and whilst there may be some profit taking, I agree that many will sit tight and certainly until the half year results on the 10th May and the biggie here will be whether they announce re-instating the divi at the end of the year - if they do that, believe it will move quickly to double digits - as alway, only my view and we'll see

Glennhoss - The RI buying and selling ends at the end of this Wednesday coming, the 12th April 2023 - the RI period itself, then goes on until the end of the 17th April, although there can't be any more trading of the rights after the 12th, which then basically lapse and become worthless - NOT the shares of course, but simply the rights themselves - as the rights though have largely led the significant negative sentiment and dragged the shares down, I see beyond the 12th as a more stable time - guess time will tell on that one. Beyond the 17th, there's a rump sale of any shares left unsold etc and takes place on the 18th and then it's full trading of the combined shares from the 24th and everything is done and dusted - hope this helps

iParsnip - I DO feel for you and others in your predicament and I know it's caused you huge stress too! BUT just some things to share which may mean there's a much better future - so we all know that the RI is what it is and I'm certainly looking beyond that - so on the 10th May, we have half year results which undoubtedly will be strong - the KEY here will be any thoughts on reinstating a dividend alongside the end of year results - Tui were very clear during the announcement of the RI that once done and a number of debts paid off, that they would be saving up to 100 million euros on interest payments - also that their leverage would be back down to 3x, which is where they were pre pandemic and so they are used to dealing with their remaining debt in line with everyone else, ie through profits - but let's stick with the divi for a moment - not sure if everyone knows, but in the prospectus it states that all the shares, ie 10 for 1 and RI shares have had their divi rights backdated to October 2022 - just find this interesting and as such, why wouldn't they 'invest' the 100 m euros saved in interest payments, to reinstate a divi for the full year - with 507 million shares as of 24th April 2023, they could afford to pay out the equivalent of 20c at the year end and just through savings on the interest they were going to pay out anyway - if a re-instatement of the divi was announced at the half year, the shares would 'fly' - pardon the pun - but if I'm honest, it's after the RI and results have been announced that I think the share value will get very interesting - and I mean how a raft of analysts will upgrade the stock and as we all know, once upgrades happen consistently, again the stock tends to fly - as such, it would not surprise me at all if the stock isn't worth 10 euros plus by the end of June 2023! So strongly feel that once the RI is done and dusted we have a couple of months to look forward to where all the messages coming out will be either positive or very positive for the stock! Hope this helps a little

Hi SpammySpamton, Many thanks for your post - thought you'd be interested in Stupmy's post as below:

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?isin=DE000TUAG000&land=germany

Thanks for sharing

HI AK57 - Many thanks - would you mind taking another look - you'll see on both entries, 3rd and 4th April, GS named in point 3 of the documents and points 6 & 7 state how 'instruments' have changed etc - have to say I dislike these legal notices intensely - hardly user friendly eh and hope this helps

Stupmy, GS got caught out a while ago - probably a couple of years ago now when they had trades on BOTH sides of the fence for the same company and for that they got their knuckles wrapped, but if I'm honest, I'm sure us mortals simply have no idea what these RM's really get up to and let's be honest, they protect themselves via lack of opacity with many many deals that they do - not moaning really, as it's part and parcel of how markets work, but for this one, wouldn't surprise me at all ref schenanigans

Hi AK57 - Please simply look at the RNS link at the top of this page - the top two relate to changes in GS voting rights associated to various 'instruments'!

Hi all, So the movement today is interesting and reassuring to see. I have no doubts in my mind and I know some of you feel the same too - that market makers were involved in a shorting of the rights side of things, which through arbitrage, significantly affected the share price too - and then yesterday afternoon, they unwound their position, which was the very first time that the rights side of things started to move higher late yesterday afternoon and has naturally continued into today and again, through arbitrage has impacted positively on the SP too - won't find it at all surprising if in a few days, Goldman Sachs shows a drop in their' instruments' and hence their voting rights which went up pretty significantly right at the start of the RI and as they unwound their position - just sharing my thinking

Hi balmus - Huge thanks for sharing the research note and my goodness, if we can get back to the 18 euro mark which is what they believe to be 'true value' right now, then great eh! Once the RI is done and dusted and all shares start trading from the 24th, I believe pretty quickly analysts will put out a raft of upgrades and as such, help driving up the SP accordingly - also half year results on the 10th May, will also hopefully be a significant driver too - thanks again

Bingobob007 - You need to check with Lloyds, as the price can't be correct or we're both missing something - the RI is a fixed price at £4.88, PLUS an FX charge to buy the German shares, which HL are charging an extra 1% for, so in effect taking the overall price to £5.10 - as I say, please check with Lloyds directly as your time is running out

johnney, Afraid not - once the RI closes at the end of the 12th April, the rights part becomes worthless, ie zero - please check the prospectus if you need to clarify.

Hi lymie - the only fly in the ointment, will be if there is a 'big rump' after the rights issue closes - clearly the bigger the rump, the likelihood that the underwriters may offload at a discount even to the £4.88 price - often, companies post how well the RI has gone - please don't shoot me for that comment, as I realise for many it's be an absolute disaster - but what I mean is from a company getting it's hands on the 1.8B of course it's a big win - as I say when the RI has closed, Tui should publish how many have taken up the rights and how much is left for a rump offload - if the take up is high and the rump low - let's say 10%-20%, then will be seen as good and you'd think this would be taken positively in the market - if much more in the rump though, whilst underwriters can 'sit on the stock' and drip feed back into the market, they may feel the need to offload at a discount dependent on how big the rump is - let's hope it's tiny eh

Hi johnney, These are not shares - they're the rights to buy the shares and hence why the figure is low - probably shouldn't be this low and most Tui investors using this site, suggest is should be around the £1 mark, but it's being driven by sentiment and/or short sellers - you can only buy these rights via certain brokers - I'm with HL and they don't allow it, so afraid can't help with that one - so in reality and if you bought these for the price right now, you'd be investing the rights price of 39p PLUS the RI share price of £4.88, giving an overall total of £5.27 PER SHARE - hope that helps

Coming back to my thought around short sellers - went back to the UK prospectus and found this statement:

If short sales have occurred, the seller of these shares bears the risk of not being able to fulfil its obligation by delivering New Shares - can be found on page 96 of the prospectus

So it may well be, that the price is being driven down by such practices accordingly - as I said earlier, have no idea how prevalent this practice is within RI's, but clearly legally, Tui felt it strongly enough to post it within the prospectus.

Also found it interesting that yesterday and today Tui have posted legal notices about increases in voting rights for Goldman Sachs via 'instruments' - gone from 4.7% to 8.3% and we all know that as a rain maker, they may well be 'playing' both sides! Just sharing and may be of interest - by the way, I'm certainly no expert as many will be able to tell, but just trying to put some pieces together that are of interest to me

Berg - GO AWAY - You might think you're clever simply trying to wind people up who are genuinely feeling low because of what's happening - I can see that you've posted 3 posts just now 'in total', all insulting and not adding any value whatsoever - so as I say, GO AWAY - you're definitely NOT WELCOME!

Berg - GO AWAY - You might think you're clever simply trying to wind people up who are genuinely feeling low because of what's happening - I can see that you've posted 3 posts just now 'in total', all insulting and not adding any value whatsoever - so as I say, GO AWAY - you're definitely NOT WELCOME!

Forest34 - Afraid it doesn't have to make sense - this is being driven by sentiment and right now, it's clearly to the downside - also, I really have no idea and maybe someone can shine a bit of light on this, but let's say 'short sellers' have somehow got in on the act with regards the RI, then they'd be pretty happy with what's materialising right now - as I say, I have no idea if this is even possible, but there appears 'something' bigger occurring which people aren't spotting etc. etc - that said, my final point and I know it's be shared by others too - this is an expensive RI - buying 8 for 3 means people accessing money which many might not have and if that's true then of course many more are selling and thereby putting pressure on the downside - for me, don't believe you'll get any real clarity until the RI closes next week and officially on the 17th April 2023

Blakester2 and Clank - As you've both raised the idea of a future RI and just in case you missed it - when the RI was announced a few weeks ago, the board specifically stated that they would not now have any further need for an RI into the future and once this one has been completed - now I know things can dramatically change etc with regards markets, but this time around, the board seem to have set out a pretty clear statement of intent and hope this helps