Member Info for MikeS02

When people start selling their rights and into the open market, does anyone know how this works? Are there selected routes, ie Link as Registrar and can investors like us get access to those sold or only bigger investors/companies and just so that I know - would really appreciate the knowledge

Paddyboy1 - Believe the price will hit the £7 mark into the middle of next week and as people start off-loading their rights - it's a steep ask on an 8 for 3 basis and whilst those lucky enough to have the funds and want to invest, will undoubtedly buy in, I also believe there will be many, like Robert who will either not have the full funds or those who bought into the stock a couple of years ago and have had enough and happy to sell all of theirs. When these start hitting the open market from this Thursday, believe the price will start to come under pressure accordingly and through the rights issue and hence the £7 mark middle of next week - at that price and if the market is stable, will look to buy in

Hi Robert,
As I've just read your message, I may be able to help albeit from my limited understand and as such, Hexam will be able to confirm if he/she links in - what you're suggesting I believe is called Swallowing the tail, ie you use the part of the issue you can't or don't want to invest in, to buy the part you do - for absolute clarity, please simply Google swallowing the tail relating to shares and I'm sure this will give you everything you need to know - hope it works out

Hello everyone - Whilst not a current Tui investor, I think that I've shared previously that once the rights issue is done and dusted, that I'll be buying accordingly and my opinion hasn't changed - as such, I waded through quite a lot of the prospectus published last Friday and just wanted to share some things which might help, as I know that like me, many have not been through a rights issue and it can be a little complicated with some significant messaging within the small print so to speak - so here goes:
1. From what I've read about rights issues, many professional investors suggest buying your stock towards the end of the issue period - why, because what's in the prospectus is that if the company pulls the issue - which for clarity will only happen if there is a major 'world' event, let's say the war with Russia takes a very unexpected turn for the downside - in those situations, the company may pull the issue - if that happens, ANYONE who has bought the issue shares will simply lose their money - no iffs or buts - with no compensation being paid - so guess if we're within a week of the end off the issue date, then you can be as confident as possible that the issue will go through to completion - for final clarity on this point - a significant market decline will NOT stop the rights issue, as of course it's fully underwritten by the banks involved and as such, it says in the prospectus, that anyone looking to buy shares in this circumstance, may be able to buy cheaper on the open market - if you'd like to read this yourself, you can find the UK prospectus by simply linking in to the investor site and at the top, you'll see the 2023 rights issue - click that and you'll then have access to the prospectus - key pages are 87 & 96
2. You can't migrate your subscription rights between the UK and Germany - only sharing as I know this has come up

Finally, whilst the subscription period officially ends at 23.59 on the 17th April, only buying or selling of the issue will be accepted until 10am on the 17th April - so again, please don't get caught out - also, don't simply do nothing - again it's very clear in the prospectus that for those who do nothing, you simply lose the issue and no compensation will be paid
At over 200 pages, the prospectus is a chunky document, but at the start, there is an index, so you can navigate pretty quickly to the areas of interest
Hope this helps and good luck

Here's my two-penn'orth if it helps:

1. The US is much further along in calming inflation than we are - they're at approx 6%, whilst we're still over 10% and very much due to the US Fed acting in a much stronger way ref interest rates than us and maintaining a hawkish stance whilst Bailey has try to dance his way through, which is simply making things worse
2. Whilst of course we all understand that oil and energy costs have fallen pretty far so far, they are probably near their bottom of the cycle for 2023 and their impact therefore going forwards will diminish - what undoubtedly should be a much bigger concern for the BOE is how food costs are simply spiralling and let's be honest, alongside energy, food is needed by everyone and therefore, food inflation will clearly remain high for a considerable time and an upward pressure on our inflation (UK at 18% and highest in 45 years; US at 9%)
3. Inflation whilst very prevalent of course, hasn't embedded itself in to our psyche and according to BOE reports - BUT, with RPI at nearly 14% and CPI at over 10%, you have to think that this will change quickly if inflation remains as elevated as it is and if it does, the BOE will be in serious trouble as then getting inflation back on track would be significantly more problematic and would necessitate a much stronger rate response, which would definitely result in a recession

So the US rate sits between 4.50-4.75% and this is expected to move to between 4.75-5% tonight - what will be more interesting this evening when the rate decision is announced, is they present a quarterly 'dot plot' which every bank governor participates in and their last dot plot averaged at a terminal rate of 5.1% - this is expected to move higher and I believe it will show an average of between 5.5-6%, which is certainly higher than what the markets are expecting and if true, will certainly pressure the markets this pm and into the rest of the week.
Bailey needs to signal something tomorrow and I agree with Ade1234 - believe he has no choice but to raise 50 basis points and move it to 4.5% - otherwise, I believe he will lose the confidence of the market over time in controlling inflation - let's see eh and as always, totally understand that this is only my viewpoint

iParsnip - Many thanks for your thoughts, although can I suggest that you read Tui's statement from the recent consolidation - in that they made very clear that this up and coming rights issue would be the last with regards using the funds to pay back recent loans from the German government - to me that's a pretty clear statement. Now I'm certainly not suggesting that they won't do another issue, but with the pay back to the government done and dusted with this up and coming rights issue, then as I said earlier, if the CEO can deliver on his commitment to significantly increase profits for this year, then why would they need to going forwards? Also, looking back at their history, they've pretty much always had about 2 Billion of debt and with this rights issue, they'll be left with about 3 Billion, so not a million miles away from their previous average, which they dealt with via their profits. I certainly get the anger of previous shareholders and don't diminish their pain, but.............By the way, you're absolutely right, that when the rights issue is announced and based on the discount to the share price announced, of course the share price will fall accordingly and close to, if not below the rights issue price and dependent on market conditions at the time - BUT, as always, investors have a choice - sell up and move on, or stay and last the course

Am at a bit of a loss as to why people post the fact that Tui 'is a dog stock'. Of course I totally understand that if any investor has been with the stock since 2018, the losses amount to about 92%, which is similar to the losses experienced by bank holders back in 2008/9. However, the current 'malaise' is simply down to one thing - the up and coming rights issue. The only way this stock will rise 'significantly' in the near term is if the whole market rose significantly and in the current environment, this is highly unlikely and as such, until the rights issue is announced and then completed, the current pricing is probably where it will sit. After the rights issue is completed, then if the CEO delivers on what he's said so far this year with regards a substantial increase in profits, then I have little doubt, that corporate investors will then get on board, which will then start to fire things up in the right way - just my opinion of course, but hope it helps

No, don't believe so. The budget tomorrow will very much be 'belts and braces', ie not much given out, with corporation tax going up as planned. He may offer other company tax deductibles, which might mitigate the corporation tax increase to some degree, but looks like his big policies will be based around pensions and childcare. He will want to bank as much as he can for next year and going into a GE

sb - have enormous respect for your views, based on a considered view and also as you say, because you are a long term investor.
Whilst I don't hold any HB stock, let me offer a contrarian view, which like you is based on a number of years investing:
Let me start by saying that I believe the stock will go below £10 by Summer/Autumn and here's why:
1. With house prices just starting to decline, I believe there is much more to come and by Summer/Autumn, I believe home prices will have declined by such an amount, that HB's will need to reduce the value of their land bank and hence of course the overall value of the company
2. Interest rates haven't really touched the economy yet (typically take at least 12-18 months from the start off tightening) and with financial markets right now betting that rates will go to 4.75% by Summer, then of course this will also impact mortgage volume and naturally sales rates for HB's and a continuing decline on home prices into Autumn/Winter and early 2024
3. HTB finishes this month and whilst many on this board share that HB's have already adjusted to this fact, they may have done, but what about the future buyers psyche -if there is no further incentive programmes from the government, which I don't believe there will be, then there could be a further sizeable fall off in FTB's in particular
4. Inflation markers across the US and Europe have moved back up in the last month and don't believe March will be any different and so the fight on inflation and indeed the cost off living crisis remains very much intact and I don't see this reducing any time soon - why - because the only way that history tells us that central bankers can calm inflation successfully is to move economies into recession and a negative impact on the work force - clearly if this does indeed materialise in Summer/Autumn, then all HB's will need to take much more draconian action which again, will impact on valuation and sp
I really feel that we are on the precipice of a significant downturn across the world in the next 6-12 months and if I'm wrong, then of course brilliant and everyone moves on etc, but if right, I truly believe that this stock price will be below £10 by then and offered as my contrarian view - as you share in your post, this site seems open to a range of views and as such, I'm simply sharing mine - equally though I know that I've been banging this drum for the last couple of weeks or so and as such, this will be my last one on the matter

Hi avocet, Many thanks for your reply - I know you've said a few times that markets look forward years, but in reality, it truly is the next six to twelve months max and to be honest, they struggle with that timeframe! If you don't believe me, please simply do a bit more research!
By all means talk up the stock - it's great for you but of course does nothing to change the reality of the situation and I guess I'd rather trust the information directly from the horses mouth, ie the board. The SP has dropped 15% in two days and 50% this year because investors are bailing - 85% of the stock is owned by big institutions and if they get 'nervous', simply hold onto your hats - SP's can move huge amounts when institutions bail and at a now miserly 5% divi, wonder if many will stick with this stock - of course, only time will tell

I know that current investors will be 'smarting', as a fall off of 15% in two days is pretty grim and from the high of £24.67, the 50% fall is clearly painful - please rest assured, I've certainly been there, as I know many others will be too.
What I'm struggling with, is how much people are trying to make a 'case' for PSN when the board themselves yesterday, were clearly gloomy about the picture this year and next.
So what to do - cash in? Maybe, although dependent on your entry SP, staying the course might be the right angle - Or do you cash in and move your resources to another player, or like me, keep your powder dry and sit with cash until companies you're interested in, have an SP that encourages you back into the market - the one thing I'd ask though - please stop all of the nonsense in terms of trying to come up with lots of hypotheses with regards to how PSN or indeed any other HB will somehow make 2023 a stellar year - they won't, and if you're not willing to accept this fact, then sadly your money will dissipate into the ether - it's clear that HB's will not even start any recovery until deep into 2024 and there will clearly be lots of pain to go through on the way to that mark - just accept what companies are telling you - 2023 and likely 2024 will be very difficult

karv1 - Afraid you're reading things with rose tinted glasses - didn't you read the 'important stuff', like lower margins; materially lower completed homes for 2023, ie 8-9k max, vs nearly 15k in 2022 and therefore leading to lower profits - and that's based on current trade - you may have also noticed that they refused to give a full account of 2023 until they could see more clearly how things were panning out. Most of what you quote is in the rear view mirror and why the stock was punished today and undoubtedly into the future too and until they can show things improving, which is highly unlikely until 2024, was because of the above and the future - investors and especially major corporate investors who own 85% of PSN stock want to know about the future and right now, it's clearly exceedingly difficult and rather than posing lots of positives, PLEASE read the full statement from the board - they are gloomy and so should investors be

Please see below - might help the conversation

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/feb/24/lots-of-us-are-very-anxious-why-britains-buy-to-let-landlords-are-selling

Just looking through all the commentary today and of course it's interesting - from those that say they guessed the divi would be 60p - not sure about that one - to those who believe the business is kitchen sinking the results - why - to those who believe the share price is a buy the dip scenario?
Now of course all of the above could be true and please, simply let me share my scenario which I understand is a contrarian view and against the pack etc, but as such, I would caution, as I have done a few times on this board:
1. The likelihood of the market is that we're at the top for 2023 and therefore the likely way is down and as we all know - ie those that have been investing for a while and many years, when the market goes down, pretty much everything goes down with it - who's saying this, hugely respected chief investment officer Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, amongst others, so please take a look if you believe otherwise, which of course is fine
2. Inflation decrease has stalled - certainly in the US and Europe, so likely here in the UK - current thinking on rates is that 4% is now in the back windscreen mirror and 5% may well be on the horizon, clearly impacting mortgages and FTB's going forwards into 2023
3. The biggest watch out for all of us, is whether a recession and indeed layoffs speed up into the second half of 2023, which I personally believe is nailed on - why - because whilst the effects of interest rates have found their way into mortgage rates, they haven't as yet hit the broader market, which they surely will - so a recession into Autumn 2023 and then into early 2024, together with a spike in layoffs could and would have a dramatic effect on HB's and FTB's etc
4. Finally, I've seen numerous people on here talking about swap rates coming down, which they certainly have since last Autumn - unfortunately, they are now turning upwards again and just today, banks are withdrawing lower fixed mortgage rates so that now there are even fewer around the 4% mark - so mortgages are going back up again and of course this will be picked up on by FTB's in particular
I know and recognise that there are many experienced market traders on this site, but for those who are not so experienced, PLEASE take a deep breath and do you own research etc to understand whether your investment is right and appropriate.
That said, I know only too well what a day like today feels like when invested in a stock, so equally remember that everyone has a choice and the most important choice is what number is important to you!

stt1 - Totally agree with your sentiments, although I know that I'm seen as a bit of a doomster on this site by some and of course, everyone is due their opinion and hopefully appropriate consideration and commentary back. I too believe that 2023 will be an extremely difficult year for HB's and as you say, with H2B finishing in March, will be interesting to see how PSN will deal with that in their commentary tomorrow, as you know that H2B was a major supporter of PSN sales historically and so undoubtedly will impact the future too, I'm assuming - again, whilst some believe that the government will step in again in the March budget to help home buyers, I simply don't see that materialising and because Hunt and Sunak want to keep things really tight this time around and so that they have monies to play with early 2024 and ahead of the next GE. So for me, certainly a tricky 2023 and hence my commentary on the divi

denby69 - many thanks for this, although think most of us have been aware of the information since the trading update in early January 2023.
Only bit I want to come back on, is their divi number, which I believe is far too high - back in November, PSN announced a new divi policy and within that, that there would be no special divi paid for the 2022 results and as such, this immediately removes the £1.15 special divi paid previously, which then leaves the £1.25 ordinary divi - for me, I expect the ordinary divi to be between 80p and £1.10 and I also believe that they won't announce any interim payment later in the year until they have better clarity on the future months ahead and will probably leave this announcement to the half year results in Summer

Whilst looking through various threads and messages, there are many new investors on this board and as such, though it might prove useful to post this guy's recent company performance announced today.
I find the guy an absolute genius and have certainly used one of his mantra's for a long time now, which is 'when people are greedy, sell and when people are fearful fill your boots' and it's a mantra that I and I suspect many successful investors have used over the years - key caveat to add is of course do your research as he does, without plunging in and without due consideration of the company facts etc etc. But he has so much more to offer in terms of his wisdom and a such, please see the link below and check out his wisdom on line - trust me, his wisdom is all encompassing and for new investors, you couldn't listen to a better guy - hope it helps

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-will-be-no-finish-line-144737030.html

Just a small correction - think you mean £180 in new, post consolidation money

Hi Neilreyn_84 - Many thanks for your post and very kind words. From the information below, you've invested a significant sum of money - for a little honesty back - mine was an equal sort of value, but fully invested in Natwest - I too took advantage of various price drops etc and with dividends, I sold out fully last year with a 17% loss overall - that said back in 2010 it felt like all our money was going up in smoke, but thankfully over time, I was able to leave on my terms!
I share this, as I'm sure many millions of investors face the same challenges that we both do - you invest in good faith and then massive events happen eg financial crisis; covid etc
So the first point I would make, is what figure is important to you? Breaking even is a good result - making profit of course is even better, but sometimes, when significant events hit, like covid, then those dramatically affected by this event, eg travel and leisure will take significant time to recover - just look at IAG today - shares down because their outlook for the rest of the year and into 2024 wasn't as expected and whilst they suggested that they could nearly double operating profit in the year; this was still down 1/3 on what they did before covid and so a long battle ensues.
So firstly, what amount of money is important to you out of your Tui investment?
Secondly, will Tui's SP go upwards as the year progresses - of course, anyones guess, but for me, it feels like after the rights issue, the answer could be 'yes', but only after some time in the next few weeks remaining weak etc - wouldn't surprise me if the SP goes back to around the £12.50 level and key reason for this is that 40% of Tui stock holders are like you, ie private holders and I would suggest that any price north of £10 per share, will not be on the buying list of many private investors etc and hence weakness through to and after the rights issue.
If the half year results in May are strong and if the rights issue has been completed by then, then of course the stock could 'pop' and be on an upward trend for the rest of the year etc.
Realistically and with a very strong run, the very best figure I could see the stock achieving by the end of the year, would be £30 absolutely max - if of course a recession starts to bite half year onwards, very best would be £25 and that's if the recession is a shallow one.
I think Mary on a previous post today summed it up perfectly and what we all know - it's the ENTRY price point that really matters and it's the key reason I've not bought into the stock right now - if it gets to the £12.50 mark, I'll start to seriously look, but that's of course just for me.
Thirdly and finally and as you asked - £80 a share - like Natwest, maybe in 10-15 years time, but holders would have to remain hugely patient.
Really hope this helps a little, BUT please remember that these are only my ramblings - I wish you the very best of wishes

It wasn't about the half year, but the guidance going forwards and whilst they were projecting nearly doubling operating profit for the year, that still leaves them a third light of other years and so shares were marked down - also remember shares had risen 30% this year to date, so very high expectations etc