Important Day Tomorrow17 Apr 2023 12:59
So tomorrow, 18th, Tui will declare the result of the Rights Issue, ie how many took up their rights and how many were sold as a rump offering. My sense is, is that the results will be strong - so with 60% of the stock held by corporates or big players etc, you have to assume that they've taken up all their rights - why - because why wouldn't they - it's very rare for such value to come to the market and available in the volume that would make sense for such purchases and so think we have this amount in the bag - of course the tricky lies with us, the retail investor and who owns 40% of the stock - as we all witnessed, the rights carnage that unfolded over the two week period, I'm simply hoping and believing that those who were disenfranchised or simply had had enough sold out and which opened the doors for others to purchase etc, but of course we can be a very fickle lot. So my sense is that any result of 85% and above will be seen as a strong result, with 90% and above moving the share price pretty strongly on Tuesday, If it's below 80% and with a large rump, then hold on to our hats - clearly tomorrow is a show of confidence or otherwise in Tui and as such, it matters. For me, I'm hoping in excess of 90%; small rump and a strong uplift in the share price and then onwards and upwards towards TERP at the £8 mark - Oh and by the way and if you didn't know already, Blackrock has built a substantial holding in our company and totalling 50 million shares and 28% of the stock already and indeed once the Russian is fully diluted down to 10%, Blackrock will be our biggest holder by far and indeed number 1 stock holder once they take up their rights etc, which I personally think will be a really good statement - others in top 10 include Vanguard Group; Norges Bank; JP Morgan; HSBC global; Amundi and Legal and General - simply showing that these are big, quality players all owning our stock and with deep pockets!
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