Member Info for MikeS02

Again, huge thanks and as others have said, your freely given insight and wisdom is hugely appreciated, although please look after yourself too - you've been inundated for a number of days and like all of us, you need your rest etc

Hi Hexam, Huge thanks and really appreciate the clarity - could I ask a final Q which was part of my earlier post - what happens with any 'rump shares'? Assuming here, it will be the banks selling on and rather than brokers - I believe they initially start by trying to sell at the RI price of £4.88 - but assuming if interest is low, then they will lower the price - how does this flow into the market if at all? Huge thanks again and promise it's my final Q

hi Stille, To be honest, I think financial commentators keep 'well away' from commenting on any RI until it's done and dusted and simply because off what we're seeing with Tui - the SP can and often is all over the place during the RI itself

Hi Hexam, Afraid I don't understand your logic, although I know you have lots of it. Surely when the Brokers buy the rights/shares for £4.88 for those agreeing to pay for them, then surely they flow into the market at £4.88 and therefore will naturally bring down the price at the time - unless of course the SP is at that price? So when the brokers buy the shares that people want and when this flows into the market - assuming 11th; 12th and 13th April - let's say half of people take up their rights and that will be approx 165 Million new shares at £4.88 - then surely this will lower the SP at that time? You then have the possible rump flowing into the market on the 18th/19th and again pressuring the SP?

Many thanks for sharing your thoughts - hugely appreciated

Hi masaimara - Don't worry about the sales side of things as the RI is fully underwritten - so any unsold will simply go into a rump offering and it's the banks that take the risk of any not selling

donalb - Huge thanks for sharing

Hello, Whilst I've posted a few things, which I'm hoping may have helped some people, like many, this is my first rights issue and I guess many of us are learning accordingly.
I wonder if anyone can provide some clarity on the following, as it may well help others in my situation and to know a little more of what's to come: so looking at the timetable, the subscription rights cease trading on the 12th April, by which I'm assuming everyone needs to have made up their minds ref buying or selling - I know that HL has the morning of the 11th to buy and end of day to sell - other brokers may well have similar timelines to get things done for the 12th - can I therefore assume that on the 11th or the 12th, that high volume will hit the trading platforms as everyone's buys will be processed - is that correct and if so, simply means that these two days could have very high volatility?
Why is there then a 5 day gap with regards the subscription period ending on the 17th April - ie what happens during those 5 days - is it simply a case of 'mopping up' the rights that haven't sold etc and so that they can decide on the rump placement?
So the 18th could also be volatile with the rump placement?
Finally, it's over and all shares start trading from the 24th - if my understanding is correct as above and from those who've been through other RI's - should we then expect a little bit more calm from the 24th, albeit of course much more dependent on market dynamics?
Would be hugely grateful for any insight

Hi Stille and Hexam, Yes you're correct, I used the £ figure whereas I should have converted the valuation from euros to £'s - the £7.34 figure is within the ballpark and dependent on the conversion rate used, so both thanks for pointing out - let's hope after the rights issue has been completed that it gets back to this figure and beyond quickly

Correct if you need to sell other investments to get monies to buy your RI - as it's Easter weekend next weekend - the actual closing date is the 11th - please check your broker for correct timings on the 11th ref sell and buy

Robbyw - it's actually £8.51 - you work it out as follows: You take the final valuation at the close of business before the RI commencing, which was a valuation of £2.514B - you then add the RI valuation, which is £1.8B, giving an overall valuation of £4.314B - into that, you divide the total number of shares, ie 178M old and 329M new and giving a total of 507M - so dividing 507 into 4,314 gives a TERP off £8.51 and hope that helps

iParsnip - I certainly sympathise - I had something similar with Natwest bank back around 2013, when they also did a 10 for 1 consolidation and almost no matter what anyone says, knowing at the time you had 30k shares and then down to 3k shares, irrespective of the price almost, made me at the time feel worse off and then last year to compound things, they 'paid' a half year divi of 20.4p which actually was nothing of the sort, as you basically had to buy this amount by giving up a tranche of shares and then I simply had had enough and sold out - at a loss!! I'm sorry to say that looking at this RI - and by the way, I don't hold any Tui shares, but based on what I shared ref NatWest, I'm afraid that you should have sold out ahead of the RI and now, as the overall share price is falling lower than TERP (8.51) and certainly lower than many thought, afraid it's hitting everyone where it hurts! So ANY company that offers an RI, or suggests they're giving a divi, when in fact they want you to pay for it - SELL UP before hand and then maybe buy back in once the deed is done and if you want to stay invested - or simply kiss goodbye to the company and never return

Hi Bowser1 - I believe that the 31% held by the Russian and his companies, have basically been 'spread' amongst all other remaining investors

Dirky, I've also been keeping an eye on Tuib, but just for clarity, my understanding is that as this is on the secondary trading platform, it DOES NOT tie in with shares at all - ie traders can basically 'bet' on this one - mind you, aren't all shares gambling as such?! - and there's no tie in to shares directly - so whilst I've been watching Tuib as for me it's a guide as to how 'investors and likely seasoned investors' believe where the price is going, ie up or down, it's not a platform or price to compare against 'genuine shares' - hope this helps and very happy for anyone with more experience than me to share more

Greylady - think it's two things actually amongst others - agree wholeheartedly ref debt, but I also think that the significant dilution of the Russian and his businesses and down to 10% from 30% will also be a great result moving forwards - interestingly, saw recently that Blackrock has taken a significant slice and now owns nearly 26% of the stock and clearly this will rise even further following the RI, as I assume that they will take up accordingly - so with quality companies like Blackrock and others, should set up for a promising future

Forest34 - Surely it's as simple as people starting to sell their rights, which simply flows into the market and puts it under pressure to the downside - think this will continue in the coming days, as more people get access to their rights and decide to sell - for clarity, I've never been through an RI, but what I'm saying simply makes sense to me - very happy for others with RI knowledge to correct of course

jaskk - Whilst I certainly agree with your sentiment, there is simply no way that governments would insure all deposits - partly because it would cost an absolute fortune if there was a significant issue; again, it would be seen as hugely overprotective of the wealthy and ultra-wealthy and finally it would encourage 'mass' risk taking on a global stage - just won't happen

DBoh - Doing a very quick calculation based on euro-pound exchange rate, assume it will be close to £6.30 and hope this helps

Many thanks for everyones input so far and Paddyboy1, brilliant to get a live example - huge thanks - iParsnip - you made me chuckle, as I'm sure you did lots of others too!

Hello, think I've found this one out, although if anyone would like to add, would be great - so my understanding is that I should be able to get access as the rights issue progresses, through my broker, HL and that pending market conditions it will be a price in the region of the difference between TERP and the rights issue price