Member Info for MikeS02

Cookie - clearly I wasn't sharing the difference ref car vs travel company - AML's RI was because it was pretty well bust and it was the only way it could survive - Tui as you know is about repaying the German government and reducing debt and fingers crossed, reinstating a divi, so totally different reasons for the RI's placed. As you also know, shorts can be reversed very quickly and indeed if so, a short squeeze can result in moving the SP up very quickly. Could Tui hit it's RI price next week or so, of course it could and especially if the market sentiment is poor for one reason or another - one of the pluses of the last two-three weeks when all of this has been playing out, is that the markets have generally been sanguine. What I do find strange though and it does seem an obsession for some, is trying to guess the bottom - surely you should simply be looking for a price that you're comfortable with, or not and then make your decision from there? Good luck either way

Why would it collapse??

Cookie - AML is NOT Tui - totally different circumstances ref the RI

Just announced today that Tui will be adding another 1.1 MILLION flights out of the UK for their 2024 schedule - lots of new routes and flying out of new regional airports too - sounds confident to me ref the future - also, don't believe there'll be much volatility on Monday, as the new shares have been trading on the Frankfurt and Hanover stock exchanges since yesterday and as such, believe the German side of things will provide support for Monday and ongoing - if anything we may start to see the unwinding of short positions

I bought into this stock like many, because we saw a 'bargain' following the carnage that was the RI two weeks - in a few months all of us might be proven wrong and will have to reconsider our investment, but right now and once shorts start unwinding which I believe they will from next week, I'm confident - famous last words eh and only if the markets remain as sanguine as they are currently - I'm confident that after the half year results on the 9th May and a reintroduction of a divi at year end, that the SP will get back to TERP, ie £8 mark (shared on a previous post that if you look at the UK prospectus and assuming the German one too for the RI - all of the shares, ie 10 for 1 and the RI shares had their divi rights backdated to the start of this financial year, ie October 2022 and hence my belief in a divi announcement alongside the half year results) - this is without any upgrades by analysts which will undoubtedly follow and also an upgrade to its investment grading which is also very likely following completion of paying back the German government et al - as Golitha quite rightly quotes below - just a few months ago, this stock was trading at nearly £20 (10 for 1 equivalent price) and this was when there were 1.78 Billion shares in circulation! I also agree that if there is indeed a recession, it will now likely be into 2024 and so the next few months should well enable a full strong year for travel etc and a strong SP

c2645sg - Just an open Q which you don't need to answer of course, but looking through your other postings on this board, can I ask if you hold any shares at all - or are you so negative in your thinking - which of course is fine, that you don't currently hold any? And I'm genuinely interested if you'd be prepared to share which ones - top 3 maybe? Mine currently is Tui, one and only right now as I took a break from investing over the last 6 months or so

chuma, I totally agree with your sentiment, but sometimes in life as we all know, things just don't materialise in the way that we believe they should. A combination of short selling; dual listing in Germany and the UK; a significant change of ownership ref 'the Russian'; LTH's simply being 'fried' and p'd off as I totally understand and more all conspire to the SP we see today - sometimes as we know, the fundamentals don't matter and with this RI I believe that's the case, as they've been swamped by lots of other bits - what we do know though, is that at some point fundamentals kick back in and when they do, watch the price increase incrementally

Hi all,
So if you've not read the updated RNS posted this evening - looks like ALL 329 million RI shares were actually 'released' for trading on the Hanover stock exchange as per the link below - has today reached the bottom?

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TUI/tui-ag-admission-announcement-j0aksg9e4v8qmfy.html

Many thanks c2645sg and BJ36 - well done - like many, I certainly don't try and 'time' the bottom - I get in at an amount I can afford and at a price I believe is good value and that's exactly what I've done. Any other views would be appreciated

I'm sharing this as I'd truly like any views back from those experienced with short sellers. So at the latest count and what others have kindly shared, about 9% of Tui shares are currently shorted and I know that the vast majority of these positions will be from either Hedge Funds or Big institutions/rain makers. I also understand that if individuals like us want to take a gamble on shorting a stock, that this is also open to us accordingly. So I get the fact that any and all can play both sides of the fence so to speak. So here's the bit I'm thinking through and would really appreciate thoughts back - so let's take Blackrock as an example - come next Monday they will be our biggest holder of stock - I can also see that they are shorting too - about 1%. Does it make sense or not, that up to tomorrow morning let's say or tonight that they would look to close their short position, thereby enabling a possible increase in the share price, so that going into next week, the price increases and they can then take some further profit from that side of things too? What doesn't make sense to me - but may to others and hence the ask for feedback - is that they have bought a substantial number of shares recently and undoubtedly have taken up all their rights and maybe some from the rump too and so surely they would want to max out on the possible upside in price which would be substantially more valuable to them than sitting on a short position which in reality for them, is low hanging fruit? I'm certainly not asking for feedback on timing per se, just the general principle if others have thoughts to share

Again, can we please desist from getting personal or insulting - we ALL have a view and like many on this site, we actually get those who are knowledgeable and sharing accordingly - when nerves 'jangle' I know it can get scary and people can lash out, but can't we simply enable people to post their view - if you disagree, then ok, just move on or share thoughts in an open and respectful way - also, we're nearly on the 'other side', so hold your nerve - like many, I'm invested and simply looking forward to next week, when I'm hoping things settle and we're back to trading 'as usual'

Greylady, Many thanks for coming back and just one more try to understand your logic - you say that I would be amazed at how many people will sell just above the offer price - I certainly would - WHY would they have bought at the offer price and just to sell out for 10p or 20p per share - if the money was so important to them in the first place, surely they would have sold their rights and not taken up the offer? As for buyers - well of course that all depends on your idea of value etc etc - I bought in at a price I believe is value and as such, will simply wait until it get's to TERP and beyond in the coming weeks and months - one thing is clear though - this RI will clear the decks in many respects and put the business's balance sheet on a very positive path - I certainly agree with your final comment - roll on the 24th; get this RI period done and dusted and get back into the real world

Greylady - It could be me being thick or simply misreading what your saying - rights were cancelled at the end of the RI period and as such, they are now worthless - so there is nothing to sell! I actually believe that as the SP is so close to the offer price of £4.88 or indeed £5.10 for those who paid an FX fee, that it simply wouldn't be worth selling anything come the 24th - actually think that as it's all done and dusted and with all shares trading, that the 24th could actually be a positive day, but of course let's see

contrariankiks - so facts not hope and opinion - really wish posters would actually read the facts themselves, all of which can be found in the relevant yearly facebooks - so facts on debt - having completed the RI, as you say, debt will fall to 2.4bn - this will be the lowest debt on its balance sheet since 2016 - so 2017 was 5.7bn; 2018 6.0bn and 2019 6.0bn - not quoted 2020 to 2022 as we all know the German government stepped in with support etc.and debt therefore even higher - also within these years they managed to pay a decent dividend etc - So what is there not to like - fact!

For the future, it's really good news, as it enables Tui to pay off the German Government for its support and move it's debt lower to pre pandemic times - also, it may well enable the company to reintroduce a divi for the end of the year - for clarity, under German law, as Tui is a German company, companies can only pay 1 divi per year and at the end of their financial year - so will have to wait until December for real clarity, although they may well announce intention at the half year results on the 9th May - hope this helps

Greylady - why do you think that 30 million shares is a lot when the reality from next Monday will be 507 million shares will be in circulation, so only 6% of this total. Upwards of 2 million shares are traded daily and sometimes much more, so again, 6 million is a bit of a drop in the ocean on a daily trade basis. Don't suggest that some may well look to take profit, but let's be honest - it looks like the price will likely be around the £5-£5.50 mark at the close of this week, so hardly any profit there is there? Hence why I suggest that any likely buyers will 'have to wait' until the price gains strength

Hi Stille - Yes was really surprised to read your earlier post 'OUT'. Sorry to hear that, but I certainly understand what you say about the stress of it all - been there and done that and when it gets on top of you and becomes a chore, then certainly the right decision - I sold out of NatWest last October and it took me a few months 'off' before getting back into the market - would be great to still get your valuable input though? Very best of wishes and take care

You need to do the maths - as of Monday there will be 507 million shares - so 30 million is only 6% and therefore not a significant amount - and WHY would they sell? Clearly better to wait for the stock to reach TERP or the half year results to take profits - these are MAJOR institutions

SUFCESSEX - No, the rump was not taken up by the underwriters - they have SOLD them to major institutions at the price quoted - please read the RNS as it clearly states the banks named have 'successfully procured subscribers' at a price of 5.60 euros - so there is no need to wait for the 24th - they've been SOLD as of today and hence why Tui can state that all the rights have now been taken up

CWWX - Those quoted are the banks that have handled the rump sale - you have to think that our Top 10 holders of stock will have nibbled away again - selling nearly 30 million shares in less than 6 hours, simply shows what good value they are - now onwards to TERP at £8 and above