Member Info for MikeS02

Whilst of course I hope everyone gets better really quickly, I find it a little bizarre that all the negativity sits with Tui? Accor is a huge hotel group and having stayed in some of their hotels ourselves, something major has clearly happened vs their 5 star status. Accor needs to help and deal with those affected accordingly and hopefully very quickly too

Avocet123 - I disagree with your premise - surely you know that many BOD's are actively incentivised for their SP performance over time and it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Tui BOD's are equally incentivised for SP performance too. Whilst I totally understand that if they are incentivised for SP, that this will be only one metric, but it is an important one. After all, Investors invest because they want more money from a business, either through an increase in SP or through a dividend and ideally of course, both - without a dividend, the board will know that getting a decent SP will be hugely important for their credibility right now and indeed their investment options going forward

We really need some positive messages out of the TUI BOARD - until that happens, we seem to be missing out on general rises in the market, which is disappointing - so come on TUI - out with positive messages into next week

So just thought I'd check in on the short positions ref Tui and interestingly Aqr Capital Management have now closed their position and at a LOSS of 2.19 million euros which is lovely to see eh!!

However, looks like another 'shorter' has just opened up a new position - Voleon Capital.

Overall though positive, as the total short position with Aqr included was 1.82% of stock and with Voleon included, now down to 1.6% of stock shorted

See link below for full details:

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi Stille, Many thanks for sharing your thoughts - fun? Grinding of teeth I think for most currently and until we see a concerted move upwards - so the end of next week, marks out week 7 since the ending of the RI and from w.c. 12th June, hopefully 'enforced' selling by ii's and LTH's will be in the rear view mirror

Hi mas - As mentioned in a post last week and looking at 4 other historic RI's, it can take up to 7 weeks to clear through ii and LTH selling and tomorrow marks the end of week 6 - so assume we're in quite a tight range until w.c. 12th June 2023 - of course I understand that looking at historic information is no guarantee of the future, but it's at least a starting point eh - hope this helps

Just would appreciate any thoughts.

I wonder if the fact that we are dual listed is affecting our SP performance - clearly most stocks simply need to move within their own listed arena, but for us it looks to me like when both the DAX and the FTSE/FTSE 250 is down, then we're hammered even more? There clearly is overspill from one to the other, as just look back a couple of weeks when we had a bank holiday Monday and our shares were very strong in Germany on that day - when our market opened up on the Tuesday, we had a great day and even though the broader indices in London were all down!

So if anyone has knowledge of this, I and I'm sure others would be really appreciative of you sharing your thoughts, Many thanks

Hi Marcinkus and Hexam, Totally agree with both points actually, which may seem a little strange.

Hexam, totally get where you're coming from and totally agree that the Q3 update on the 14th August and the final numbers in December need to be 'very good' - that's what the CEO has promised all this year, with his phrase 'significant profit increase', although of course what constitutes 'significant' will then determine if analysts; big corporates and indeed individual investors buy in.

Secondly though and it's where I believe Marcinkus is coming from, is that as well as the hard figures and profitability etc, there then comes into play, what analysts etc 'believe' could be the future of the business and this of course comes down to confidence in the board; its strategy and very importantly, the delivery of that strategy, which of course links both together, ie hard data and future opportunity.

Based on this linkage, I do indeed believe that a double digit SP is absolutely achievable by the end of this year; early next, but there's several key milestones that the business needs to deliver to get us there - just thought I'd share my thinking

Shaidm2 - Can you tell me and others what's 'manufactured?' - Inflation at 8.7%; Core at 6.8%; mortgages on the way up again with 2 year fixed now at 5.35% and 5 year fixed now at 5.05% and for a generation who simply didn't know inflation existed; nearly 2 million will re-mortgage this year and a typical 2 year fixed taken out 18 months ago for £200k will now cost £300 more per month! These are NOT manufactured; they're real and all new potential home buyers will be really worried - bet at the next updates from all homebuilders, they see a dramatic downshift in reservations and move their yearly numbers back down. It might be worth north of £20, but certainly not right now and in an environment that's only going to continue to get worse in the next 6-12 months - the pressure to the SP is certainly on the downside

Hi Stupmy, Don't read anything into holiday's at 50% off - it will ALL be in their marketing/business plan - Also, the 50% off will be on selected holidays/destinations which may be weaker than anticipated and it's what companies do to drive final volume - having worked in retail for many years, it's simply what's done and of course to the buyer it feels like a great deal when in reality, as I say, it's all part of the plan and already fed into the margins; profitability etc etc

So as I promised a while ago, I'll NEVER directly go back to C, as that's exactly what he is. So for the broader community and shows how useless C really is - just take a look at how he continuously tried to undermine AML's shareholders on this BB and how he has simply crashed and burned - so much so, that the SP has tripled since it's low and a Chinese company has invested even more into the company only last week. As I've mentioned many times before, what C lacks - apart from a brain of course - is the intellect to have a vision for the future; taking in broader opportunities and where things may take us

Hi Stupmy, Many thanks for your thoughts back - today and it will undoubtedly happen in the next few days if the US don't get their finger out ref the debt ceiling - is it's ALL about sentiment and fear and sentiment and fear as you know can be a huge disruptor to all risk assets. Genuinely believe our stock could drop to low to mid £4's if the debt ceiling issue isn't resolved and worldwide stocks take a massive hit downwards - simply hoping that common sense prevails and we hear good news out of the US sooner rather than later and then things can return to 'normal trading' etc

Quickdip - I don't hold shares in Persimmon, although at some stage I might, but not until inflation is 'way back' in control. So coming to your Q - Persimmon is by far the most reliant on FTB's and of course it's this population that's hardest hit with regards mortgage rates. Today specifically, it's the fact that the core inflation rate has come in 'hot' at 6.8%, which is now suggesting to markets that the interest rate will go into the 5%'s and maybe 5.5%, which again is a huge negative for home builders in general, but specifically Persimmon and FTB's - just my thinking of course, but may add to the conversation

Hi Stupmy - Today is 'not' a typical day - the core inflation reading coming in hot at 6.8% and of course the debt ceiling chaos in the US is totally influencing today's action and of course the debt ceiling could continue destabilising world markets in the next few days if indeed idiot politicians can't get their fingers out and actually do a deal! So suggest your daily stuff isn't relevant currently, as it's the macro that's driving everything - suggest if the debt ceiling stuff isn't sorted in the next two days, ie they reach an agreement, then afraid all bets are off for us all

OTCDS - Can't see any news with regards the drops for airlines, but at the close, both WizzAir and EasyJet were 5% down and IAG, nearly 2% down - I guess this sentiment, hit us towards the close too

As most know, I'm a new investor into Tui and bought in during the RI itself, although I've been an investor for the last 15 years and simply thought that following research, that Tui was at an opportune time to invest in and I still believe that today.

The reason for sharing this post, is that Tui was also my first and undoubtedly my last RI related stock, but as such, wanted to do a little research into how things tend to pan out after an RI - so I selected 4 companies to look at - IAG; EasyJet; Rolls Royce and M&S - all having completed RI's in the last 2-3 years and accessing historic share price movements was easy.

What I found was that the RI 'impact' can certainly continue to influence the share price for about 6-7 weeks (this week closes out week 4 for us) and assuming that's down to ii's continuing to sell back into the market etc and of course, LTH's dropping the stock and new investors coming in etc. After that time though, it's a strong picture upwards and I'm talking SP's moving 50% higher in a short number of weeks.

So certainly not trying to predict anything and suggesting that we undoubtedly may well have another 3 weeks of stronger volatility in the SP - but by mid June and with ii's and LTH's having done their stuff, we could be on the verge of movement to TERP.

What I've loved about this week, is that you can already see that things are starting to settle each day and it's starting to move back to normal types of trading, which can only be a decent sign - hope this helps a little

Hi Stupmy and all - Please see below for clarity from the Rights Issue Prospectus and hope it helps:

Will this be the last capital increase or will there be others?

The agreement with the Economic Stabilisation Fund (WSF) provides for the intended complete termination of the stabilisation measures granted by the WSF. In addition, a substantial reduction in KfW credit lines is envisaged. Pursuant to the agreement, the repayments shall be carried out by the end of 2023 and would be financed with the proceeds from two capital increases with subscription rights carried out at the same time. After completion of these transactions, no further capital increases are planned to reduce the Group's debt.

Hi Savage - Ref a future RI, guess can never say 'never', but that applies to any company really. All I would say is that when the last RI was announced, the Board made a clear statement that there would be NO more RI's with regards reducing debt - also looking at how past RI's have materialised - if indeed any others do come about, think it will be at least 2 years away minimum and hope this helps - finally, they don't need to dilute Mordashov anymore as his current holding is pretty much in limbo

Yuir.F - Can I suggest you actually read the statements from the CEO before making such claims ref break even; profitability etc - and you'll see that's EXACTLY what they will do this year, 2023

I've actually gone with juice! Couldn't muster up any positivity - thought the half year presentation was poor - positive messages were simply lost amongst the plethora of everything else - believe the board need to learn how to downsize their reporting and keep key messages simple - will break open the alcohol in the coming days