Member Info for MikeS02

Golitha/Greylady - Would either of you be able to clarify why the shorts figure provided by Golitha and myself runs at 2.83%, whilst Greylady's runs at over 8% - can't be both correct? Is it to do with open vs closed positions I wonder and therefore which one is correct??

Should have also mentioned that I'm not overly concerned with today's move as other travel businesses also 2.5-3% down too, ie carnival and easyJet

Hi all, I know that this is usually Golitha's domain, but based on today's action, thought I'd take a quick look at the shorts and it's great news again - so as Golitha shared yesterday, looks like the 4th 'shorter' hit it's price and closed it's position yesterday and open shorts are now down to 2.83% from 3.34% yesterday and clearly moving in the right direction.
That said though, the 3 remaining are pretty big shorters in amounts of stock they've borrowed, so likely will take a 'substantial move' to see them close or adjust theirs. Hope this helps

Just finished watching Bloomberg and tonight's after the bell results, eg Microsoft, Alphabet etc etc and all look strong, so agree Golitha, the end of today's US trade was looking not so great, but with results after the bell, looks like tomorrow US side will actually be pretty good and reverse some of today's losses which should be positive and supportive for European trading - for interest the DAX futures are now positive

Hiya,
Thanks for coming back - to be honest, I'm VERY happy to stick up for the big boys if now, they help send the SP higher and higher - other than that, if they sell down and bank some profit in an orderly way, then that's good for me too

RonnieH - Not quite sure what you're saying? I'm simply referring to the 3 'red' sale lines shown after close and as per the values quoted - also Greylady - clearly not manipulation of any sort, as it has a name; it's covered by the LSE and it's then marked up as such at the end of trading, so hardly manipulation? Also, why don't institutional investors want the shares? Doesn't make sense - they all took up their rights and bought even more in the rump sale - if what you mean is that they are drip feeding some profit taking, I totally understand that, but if they do it in a controlled way, ie through this single protected transaction route and which doesn't necessarily manipulate the day's trading - for me, that's fine and dandy - others will simply hold on and offload higher up the SP price

Hi all,
I know there's been a few comments about the £2m and 2 x £98k sales after the close.
If you look at the right hand side and hold your curser over the 'i', you'll see that they are all 'single protected transactions' - had a look on the LSE stockopedia and please see below for clarity and hope it helps:

Single - If reporting a single protected transaction. A protected transaction occurs when a large order is going through the market. The buyer (or seller) may wish to keep the order anonymous from the rest of the market as the size of the order could greatly alter the price of the stock. With a protected transaction the dealer will put the trade through in small quantities rather than knock the whole order out in one hit. The entire transaction is reported once the deal is completed. The LSE is notified at the start and at the end of the transaction, however, the market as a whole isn't told until the end, thus the order is protected.

So basically these sales have been progressing throughout the day and then fully declared at the end and so their impact has already been taken into account by the market price.

That said, there are other pretty large buys or sells after the close too, so will be interesting tomorrow first thing - with such a decent rise today though, wouldn't surprise me at all if we give back 5-10p or so first thing and maybe then upwards if the market is pretty stable

Last week was a short sellers food fest, ie looked like loads piled in to take advantage of the end of the RI and therefore taking the % shorting to over 9%, which I think was the highest ever for Tui and ranked it number 1 for shorts % in Germany - now we're down to 6th position. Interestingly, Citigroup had 2.2 million shares on loan declared last Wednesday and of course for these massive players, even a couple of days at depressed lower prices can earn big bucks if they were playing both sides of the fence

Hi Stupmy - It's not to say of course that companies won't buy new short positions going forward - they may well do, but as we all know, shorts are predicated on a share achieving a certain price and if that doesn't work or the SP moves up and much more importantly on a continuous basis, then either those shorting can and will lose loads of money - let's hope eh or they will close their short positions enabling an even higher SP as the drag down effect is lessened - what would work for me right now, is a steady daily increase in SP, let's say 10-20p each day for the next few days and then we really will have the shorters on their backside very quickly

Huge thanks Golitha as usual - undoubtedly having a positive effect on the share price and as posed last week, think it's a simple case of shorts dilution as the new shares have come on board - hoping that's the way it stays if not lower and of course as the SP continues upwards, some will start to be 'forced' to close anyway - again huge thanks for posting

c2645sg - Not sure what to say really.

I'm not asking anyone at all to listen to me, I'm simply sharing a link to an MSN report which was published today and bodes well for our stock - you seem fixated? Oh and do we make mistakes in life and investment calls, of course we do - what I would suggest, is that the MSN report is way better than your pessimism

yes please!

Thought I'd post this on this thread as well, as makes more sense and maybe adds a little interest to the conversation:

Thanks to Golitha who very kindly provided an update on the shorts position below and I simply read an article at the bottom of the graph - please take a look:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/tui-lsetui-price-target-increased-by-829percent-to-83319/ar-AA1aeRl4

Hi everyone, Following Golitha very kindly supplying the shorts position in Germany - read an article below the shorts graph and thought you'd like to see

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/tui-lsetui-price-target-increased-by-829percent-to-83319/ar-AA1aeRl4

c2645sg - Hmm - You're not answering my Q for the second time of asking, so actually I believe you don't own any stock at all.
You clearly have no idea what momentum can do; re-ratings can do; analyst upgrades can do; outperformance can do; shorts ceasing or being considerably reduced can do etc etc - you're stuck at the low point with simply no vision at all - must be a little sad in your head eh, whilst us investors get quite excited at the prospect.
What I will do for you - come September time, as I'm sure you'll get bored of this bb once the price starts rising, I'll drop you a line as to how the share price is doing

c2645sg - will keep this one short and it's just for you if you don't mind and based on some of your commentary and some of my previous posts to you:
1. I asked in a post a little while ago if you are actually a stock holder of any company and you didn't answer - out of courtesy, it would be nice to know either way?
2. You're not a holder of Tui stock I believe and based on your clearly negative view - so if so, why on earth continue on your platitudes? We get it - you hate the company and see it down the tubes - fine for you - many of us don't and if we're rose tinted or not, who cares - we're bulls; have bought in at a price and are actually quite excited at the possibilities and so if it all comes crashing down, on our heads be it - we really don't need you constantly bleating
3. You 'mock' the £19 per share scenario - so here's some facts - before the RI and 10 for 1 consolidation and ALL this based on financials already known to all analysts and investors, the share price last April 2022 was £2.65 per share, out of a 1.78 Billion share allocation and giving an MCAP of £4.72 Billion - taking this figure and dividing by the new share capital and you have a minimum recovery price of £9.30 and that's without any re-ratings; analysts upgrades; best performances being delivered since covid etc etc - so to many of us, £19 is certainly achievable and double digits, a simple fact of life in the coming weeks

c2645sg - Many thanks for sharing below - but how do you explain then that the share price prior to the RI was £14 and as high as £24.60 in the last 12 months - ALL predicated on the figures you quote below and of course, even worse debt at the time; still coming out of covid etc etc. Also, WHY would investors take up 90% of the rights and investment houses take up the rump in under 6 hours - what you and others are missing is the opportunity, which is exactly what investors and indeed investment institutions look at and surely you have to agree that this year and possibly next will be 'stunners' compared to the last 3 years. So it's about possibility - below is backward looking and not forward looking, which is how winners are spotted and huge returns delivered - you've said many time before to never ignore the big boys - well they've spoken and snapped up the bargain of the year

Great and many thanks for your replies - aspers - totally understand thank you. chumba, totally agree with your sentiment - guess those paid big bucks need to come up with some sorts of figures that are supposed to make sense, but like we all know, starting anything with the word Theoretical says it all really. Guess where we're all aligned is the sooner it gets to TERP the better eh - here's to a strong week coming up - let's put the rocky RI behind everyone and get back to some sort of sanity, which would certainly work for me

chumba and aspers - many thanks for coming back with thoughts, although I have a Q for you both and a comment - so let's start with the Q - can you share why you believe the SP will go down to £4.50 - I know all of us have a bit of 'arbitrary' thinking and finger in the air jobs, but interested to know your thoughts - guess where I'm coming from as at the start of this chain, is that unless those shorting invest quite a bit more money to keep their shorts at the same sort of level, the dilution will occur and there then has to be a 'bump' to the upside - also, whilst I get that many of the biggest institutions loan some of their shares to short or indeed short themselves, eg Blackrock, why would they now, when new shares arrive - wouldn't they simply want the price to pick up big style and cash in that way and especially as most of these players simply loan out about 10% of their stock - surely upside to their 90% now that the RI has been done and dusted is a much bigger move and profit generator for them? With regards my comment - chumba, you mention that the SP is already 45% lower than the Tui advisers - well not really, as of course you're quoting TERP which is simply a calculation based on the closing share price before the RI starts, whilst the RI was set at £4.88 and which to date hasn't been breached and I don't believe it will be - anyway, of course we'll all find out tomorrow and good luck

So here's an interesting thought I'd like to share as like many, I've been pondering why the shorts have gone to 9% when let's be honest, apart from the RI, nothing has changed with regards the Company's basic financials etc - if anything they get better from here and yet the increase in shorts.
So here's my thinking - I believe that the institutions have built up their short positions recognising the fact that they will be diluted when all shares start trading Monday - Right now out of a total of c178m shares, 9% are being shorted, ie approx 16 m shares. With regards the new shares though, all of these are only physically released to all accounts on Monday, including to investors and as per the prospectus link shared below and as we know, you have to have the shares physically in order to be able to offer them to others to short etc - so that just like the Russian's holding, surely all short positions will be hugely diluted too - ie by the 65% of bringing in new shares to the overall total and if this is true, then shorts will immediately decrease first thing from 9% to only 3%, ie still the 16m shares but now amongst a total of 507 million shares in circulation. For me what that means is that the 'opening price' in the market first thing should 'pop' as the downside draft applied from shorts has been hugely diluted and here's me both hoping but predicated by what I'm saying above, is it will start at over £6 (By the way, this of course is a purely finger in the air job, but a 20% increase in SP at the start for a 65% dilution in shorts doesn't feel crazy). Whilst institutions may then build new short positions, who knows, but if it stays around the 3% mark, then it will be much more in line with historical norms etc and would make much more sense to me and I'm sure many others too and which at a level which shouldn't be so damaging on the SP moving forwards - Finally, I don't believe you'll be able to compare to other RI's, because it's predicated on the amount of shorts going into the stock opening after the RI, which of course is hugely different by company - as I've been trying to get my head around this for a few days, this will certainly be my last post on the matter, but food for thought eh

https://www.sharecast.com/news/Company-Announcement-General/TUI-AG-Publication-of-Prospectuses--dl33392613.html