Member Info for MikeS02

Ok, so that's all over - the Wagner mercenaries have been told by their leader to fall back to their Ukranian field positions, following a brokered deal via the Belarusian guy.

So with all that drama sorted, it sadly means that the Ukranian war goes on!

Closer to home though and with this cleared up, you would think that with the agreement with the banks brokered by Hunt, that Monday might be a strong day for us - onwards and upwards eh

Hi all,

Hope everyone is keeping well and enjoying the sunshine!

So a couple of things that may move the markets here in the UK on Monday and hopefully for the better and our SP too:

1. So it looks as though the agreement between Hunt and the banks has gone down well and as such, should really help to alleviate many hundreds off thousands of people and families facing a significant increase in their mortgages - markets in the UK should undoubtedly see this as helpful and beneficial and whilst it largely helps over the next 6-12 months, any help I'm sure will be hugely appreciated etc and should help people and families not just with their costs, but also to enjoy their holidays too! As we also know, once things like this are started, they're pretty easy to keep going over time, so whilst it may be initially a 6-12 month scenario, could easily see it being extended if needed

2. You may have seen on the news this morning that Wagner, the mercenary head in Russia has taken over the army HQ in Russia itself and is basically lining up a rebellion and even a coup. Clearly the next 24/48 hours will determine what happens next, but you have to think that those in the Russian army and the conscripted ones in particular, are so fed up to the back teeth, that they may well join Wagner and/or simply drop arms against him etc. Could this even topple Putin, who knows, but of course it could be hugely volatile and may really help markets or terrify them too? So this one, not so sure of the impact come the opening of Asian markets Sunday night and then ours Monday morning - clearly hoping that it is the first major step in reversing the Ukranian war - wouldn't that be amazing!

So as I say, just sharing.............

Hi Stupmy,

I know we've shared a few messages today - don't like to do loads, but today feels a little different anyway.

What a pretty disastrous day all around for travel/tourism/holiday stocks today eh and unfortunately, it also feeds into the pattern in the last 3 or 4 weeks of a decent start to the week and then Thursday and Friday's sell off, often, although as I say, today was poor for all - here's to Monday and a strong start recouping - we hope!

With regards your specific about Carnival - please see link below and whilst I don't actually see much value in reading The Motley Fool, at least he supplies information in a clear way - as you'll see, the analyst upgrades were a week past Monday and by the end of the week, shares were up 20%!! Hope it helps

https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/16/why-carnival-stock-jumped-this-week/

Hi Stupmy,

Surprised you're comparing Carnival, after it received a double upgrade last week, so of course it would fly and as such, won't show such weakness in the short term etc.

A double upgrade or indeed a single upgrade like Deutsche a couple of weeks ago is exactly what we desperately need, but if anything like this comes our way, will undoubtedly have to wait until Q3 numbers in August is my thinking

Hi Stupmy and Stille,

Many thanks for thoughts back.

As always in life, it's about what's most important to you and your family and from what I've read and coming out of Covid and lock down, 'passing' on a holiday and travel appears to be the very last thing that people want to give up.

So whilst the reaction this week to rate increases and concern on discretionary spending, the travel/holiday/tourism bit looks well anchored and supported.

As mentioned though, there likely comes a crossroads, whereby people have cut pretty much everything and then they look to cut their planned holiday, which I totally understand.

That said, I don't actually believe that this year will be the 'pain' and it will be into 2024, when the real pain hurts and we possibly go into recession etc - believe this point will be recognised by investors into the near term and hence support for our SP

Hence why I and suspect many will keep their faith in this stock for now and very likely take a good long look later this year and into early 2024, to see where things have settled.

Sorry, should have also said that the DAX has had an awful week this week and as our shares are in effect 'split' over two trading systems, then there's always a knock on when one is significantly struggling.

Again, if and when the DAX stabilises and hopefully into next week and the end of the month and half year in trading terms, let's see where we go. Finally, some stability in the US markets would undoubtedly help too and simply from a sentiment viewpoint.

Stupmy and Golitha,

Whilst I and others find your commentary around technicals interesting from time to time, you surely must know and understand that what we've seen this week is simply all about interest rate rises and much more importantly, the possible impact of these on discretionary spending - nothing else.

To back that up, ALL stocks relating to travel; tourism; holidays have been hit this week and it's simply those holders of the stock who have decided they don't want to be in them anymore based on what I share above.

Once those holders have gone and hopefully today will be the end of it, then the share price will look attractive to other investors etc etc and so I'm firmly in the 'mas' camp on this one

Sharefall - I don;'t believe that people are catastrophising or suggesting a collapse - I think a number on this BB together with myself are suggesting that there is further downside to come and for the following reasons:

1. With rates now at 5% and likely to top 6% by the end of the year and as predicted by market pricing, you have to think that this will be 'terminal' to FTB's which Persimmon in particular rely upon - why would ANYONE get into the housing market with such huge rates staring them in the face? The tried and tested theory of 'we have a huge housing shortage etc' is waring thin when rates are so high and remember FTB's simply haven't operated in this sort of rate environment, so why would any take the plunge? Don't think they will

2. Persimmon will declare their half year results in July and you have to think with the current rate scenario that they will announce a suspension of any further divi this year and likely next year too - obviously a downer with regards the SP

3. Unfortunately I believe that a number of analysts will post downgrades to the PSN SP and just look what Jeffries have done today - in 3 short months, they have declared a 25% reduction in their target price and based on today, you have to think that a number of analysts will continue this downtrend too

So as I say, don't think we're catastrophising at all - think we're simply being realistic and based on where rates are going to in the relatively short term.

Everyone will make their own judgement and as always, time ill tell...........

BOG - All holiday companies offer deals - guess you're one of the lucky ones where they have some spare capacity and let's be honest, selling millions upon millions of hols, they're going to have some spare capacity from time to time eh - certainly not concerned and enjoy the saving and the hols

Hi mas,

Yes, not been a fan of the last couple of days for sure.

Did see quite a few relatively 'big' sells today which didn't appear to be ii's, so again, looks like LTH's have had enough and leading the charge downwards.

Tomorrow is an important one and probably more important than the BOE decision on Thursday (unless they go the whole hog and raise them by 0.5% - 0.25% is already baked in), as we release the next inflation print and the one to watch for is the core rate which last month 'shocked' at 6.8%, which was higher than expected.

So the headline is expected to fall again, but analysts believe the core will stick at 6.8% again - if it comes in under, you have to think that the market will react favourably and could play to our advantage after two days of sell off, which I'm assuming is because of all of the negative press around about mortgage rates and rates in general, which of course could hit consumers hard and likely move us into recession and whilst the recession is likely in 2024 (if at all), investors are making their thinking known now and through selling.

So here's to a weaker core print tomorrow, which undoubtedly will hold the BOE to a 0.25% rise on Thursday - a bad and higher print though, again we'll likely need to hang on to our hats......

Hi Stille,

Ref your Q and Credit Suisse and UBS - think it's simply a technicality based on UBS finalising the acquisition of CS last week and as such, taking over their stock positions - all I can think of

Hi wozzer70 - Many thanks for sharing your thinking and certainly interesting. Guess for me, I'm not quite sure that such technicals apply as of course, we know that the stock has recently come out of a major RI and as such normal trading rules wouldn't apply?

That said, I think today's 'recovery' of 12p from the low is a really good sign. and as such, believe it will break through £6 again in the next day or two and then onwards and upwards - ALL of course dependent on market forces, but again, a pretty significant rise this pm vs a DAX and FTSE250 quite a bit down, suggests a good sign to me

Hi all, It feels a little heated today, which is a shame, as usually everyone shares in good spirits.

For those who read my posts from time to time, you'll know that I'm currently negative on HB's and for reasons I've shared previously. Again as previously shared, I do believe that HB's SP will be higher in 2 to 3 years time than they are today.

Think what is inflaming things, is that current LTH's of PSN will be concerned at where the SP is right now, whilst those possibly looking at investing into the future, simply want the lowest possible SP as their entry point and of course arguments on both sides are relevant, but of course come from these different positions.

All I would ask is please respect the views of others, as often they come from the best of places and no one I believe is truly trying to wind anyone up, but it certainly feels to me, like some are getting agitated and that's a real shame.

Just my ramblings................

Hi mas, Many thanks for sharing as always.

For me, I actually think that the 0.25% rate increase next Thursday is already priced in, as it's been well telegraphed by the markets etc.

So I only think there will be a sizeable reaction if the BOE goes 'extreme' and raises them by 0.5% on the day, which right now is only priced in at 15%, with the 0.25% priced in the markets to 95%.

As always, let's see but with us now ending yesterday at 8 weeks since the ending of the RI and moving further and further away from ii's offloading and LTH's likely 'done' in offloading too, continue to think that the coming weeks will see us move upwards towards TERP and pretty quickly too.

What we REALLY need are other bank analysts coming out with upgrades like Deutsche last week and if so, we'll 'fly' - just look what a double upgrade did for Carnival last week

Whilst the fall off at the end of today is a bit disappointing, we can't complain at a weekly rise of 44p, or 8% increase - that said, reaching a high of £6.10 today and to end at £595.5 is a bit disappointing eh.

It's really interesting that we seem to always start the week strongly through to mid week and then Friday always seems to disappoint, as it has done today.

So already looking forward to Monday and kicking through that £6 scenario - have a great weekend all

Thanks SKR and Yes, a superb sign

Hi mas and SKR - mas, no Gladstone hadn't dropped their short, but what they had done was set up a new entry point yesterday of 6.88 euros - they still are the biggest short holder at 1.09%, so if the SP moves in line with SKR's thoughts, which of course we all would think superb - then you have to think that they would both close up pretty quickly and if they do of course, then sunshine to be had! Equally though, interesting that both have changed their entry point numbers quite a bit higher, which you would also think is a decent sign moving forwards

So just sharing - after a couple of days, Voleon has opened up a new short position of 7.03 euros and as per the link below - well, they lost close to a Million last time, let's hope it repeats again in the very near future too eh

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi Golitha,

Many thanks and yes, certainly very interesting that they have re-set their starting SP.

My sense is that with another 3 days positive out of 4 this week and indeed 7 positives out of 9 in the last fortnight, that things could move quite quickly.

Clearly £6 is likely to be quite a psychological SP and if we breach that tomorrow and into next week too, then maybe Gladstone will withdraw pretty quickly - let's hope eh

Best and thanks again

Hi Golitha,

Huge thanks for the information and clarity - they certainly made a packet off the back of the RI and clearly they saw it as a good 'risk' at the time etc

Thanks again