Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

I have to say that I find today's price drops for us and of course all other tourist/holiday/airline brands, an absolute knee jerk reaction to what's happening in the Greek Islands.

Why I strongly believe that our SP will be above last Friday's closing price of £6.09 by the end of this week (barring of course any other natural disaster), is because what today is 'taking over' in the media is the real and huge positive off last weekend - ie that the 'peak' Summer holidays abroad got off to an amazing start with no issues whatsoever and apart from the Greek Islands scenarios - just think back to the start of last summer and the chaos at airports; cancellations of flights etc etc.

Now we know that there are still some obstacles, the biggest of which is the European Air Traffic Controllers and whether they will actually go on strike during the rest of the Summer Holidays - let's hope not. This pm we also learn that Unite has parked further strikes at Gatwick for other baggage handlers, so that seems to be sorting itself out nicely - see link below.

When we hear that the wild fires are under control - hopefully the next 48 hours or so; Rhodes holidays can re-start from Wednesday and millions continue to get away with no hassle whatsoever, the SP will bounce back accordingly and so it should!

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-unite-union-says-more-dhl-workers-suspend-strikes-gatwick-2023-07-24/

Hi all,

So let's start with the not so good - again, we repeated the Thursday and Friday declines which have been our scourge since the RI - believe that until we reverse these into growth, our SP will languish.

Now for the good news - we stayed above £6 at the close and gained 23.5p on the week; we also had Voleon close their short position today too which has to bode well and gives the right message ref our SP into the future.

For the week, we held up very well against other tourist/holiday companies, with EZJ -3.4p and after their Q3 update; IAG +1.02p and Wizz Air +0.17p on the week.

We have to acknowledge positive movement in the right direction and whilst it feels like a grind up, I think we'll all be relatively ok with that through to our Q3 update in August - also we have the start of next week to look forward too, as we always start the week strongly - so here's to a great start Monday onwards and hopefully strong days on Thursday and Friday too - have a great weekend all

Hi strictlybricks and all,

I shared the 90% comment and if you're interested please see link accordingly and hope it helps - probably always useful to refresh thinking etc

https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-60554/why-90-of-traders-lose-money/

Hi all,

Just keeping everyone updated - so Voleon has closed its short position in totality this time and after the 0.10% shaving yesterday.

That said, we saw last time this happened, that they opened a new short the next day, so let's see where it takes us into next week, but obviously a good sign going forwards if they've closed for good!

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi all,

Just sharing that Voleon has shaved its short position from 0.59% to 0.49% and with a start price of 7.07 euros - previously, its start price was 6.58 euros and delighted to share that this caused them a 1 million euro loss at that price!!

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

Hi all,

Just thought I'd share this - I wonder if the drop today is down to the costs, which you can see in the link, aren't great (ie deterioration vs Q3 2022 and pretty much across the board) and in that scenario, I wonder if analysts and ii's decided to mark the stock down today?

Overall though, I totally agree with sentiment that the results in totality are strong, but as I say, wonder if the costs are proving a drag?

Have included the statement and you can scroll down to the figures accordingly - clearly understand that it's only my view, but trying to understand the fall like everyone else and aside from market manipulation!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EZJ/trading-update-for-the-quarter-ended-30-june-2023-k1jgw0600jik11u.html

Stevebt - just wanted to say thank you for your posts this pm and providing some further clarity - one thing's for sure then - we're in the same club of having lost money on investments - sure many others are part of this same club and hence why I ask for everyones views to be heard and respected - thanks again and good luck with PSN

Stevebt - Your postings are interesting - many times you've said that the SP will decline, only to be shown as not the case and equally you believe that you can spot when shares will fly - hmmmm - don't think any of us have those particular skills!

Steve and I'm sure you know this, but just as a reminder - 90% of investors LOSE money - fact!

I'm an investor and have had the highs and lows and quite rightly today, celebrate the increases, but please have some respect for other views, rather than just your own.

You know as well as many others, that there's much more bad news on its way when it comes to HB's and FTB's in general and to be frank, today means nothing at all for FTB's - all fixed rates are still above 6% and still hammers FTB's even considering taking out a mortgage.

So please, less of the 'wheres your £4 now' commentary etc - you didn't believe that the stock would ever get below £12, just a few short months ago and don't remember anyone 'calling you out or indeed anyone out', because we all have valid views to share - just saying

Hi Stupmy and SK - Enjoy reading your comms, but have to disagree with your current thinking. ALL markets have inflection points and of course based on significant piece(s) of data and today is exactly that - a significant piece of data. For the last 5 months, UK inflation has simply gone up and up and today likely means that's broken and into the coming months we'll see inflation falling significantly, which can only be good for the cost of living crisis and meaning more disposable in people's pockets etc etc. If you look at inflation across the globe, it's falling and falling pretty quickly - if and I know it's a bit if, but if inflation is say 4% here in the UK by the end of the year, you have to believe that overall sentiment will go through the roof and clearly support tourism in an even bigger way than it is now.

Let's be honest, the biggest drag on our SP (apart from the RI of course) has been that this year could be seen as a one hit wonder - what today does, is strengthen the case that it won't be a one hit and that the good times could start rolling into 2024 too.

We know that EZJ will be strong tomorrow; likely AIG will be when they declare towards the end of July and then of course, our own results into early August - Tui have already shared that Q3 will be a blow out and due to their already announced 'best ever' Easter in the UK and the German CEO stating that bookings for them in June were ahead of 2019 - all of which sits in our Q3 - but what I believe could be the icing on the case on Q3 results day, would be the blow out that is building for Summer 2023 and of course our profitability - have every confidence that they will deliver 1 Billion euro EBITDAR for this full year and if we do, clearly we'll race to the moon and beyond - investors believing that these good times roll into 2024 too will be important for our SP to hit double digits by year end

OSG - Totally agree and of course for tourism stocks, it's simply the best time ever for such a reading - why - because it's the start of the Summer hols and of course our peak time to pile in the profit - this might well be the huge psychological lift that we're all waiting for and will pretty much guarantee that for those who have not booked a holiday so far, that they see today's figure; look outside and see the miserable weather and get themselves online to book a holiday abroad!!

Certainly expecting a nice 'jump' today and why not - we've certainly had the bit hits down when the other way has happened in the last few months - guess we'll soon seen and of course EZJ tomorrow, so hopefully will help maintain the momentum out of today

Hi Gary59,

Think you already know my view - believe they will cancel any interim and feed the monies into the pot, which right now would simply make business sense - that said, if we get a soft reading tomorrow on inflation and especially on the core side of things, then it may give the BOE some wriggle room for only a 0.25 rate increase in early August - if however, the core stays anywhere near the 7.1% of last month, then it will definitely be a 0.5% rise again and then you have to think that a cancelled interim will be baked in

Hi mas,

Many thanks for your thoughts, although not quite as simple I'm afraid.

It's only those aligned to Easyjet who have suspended, whilst the rest are still down to strike - please see link below and hope it helps.

That said, would seem ridiculous that the other airlines including us and BA can't come to a better offer and let's hope it's soon and all done and dusted - will unfortunately need to keep watching this one, until it is:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/some-workers-suspend-strikes-londons-gatwick-other-strikes-still-union-2023-07-18/

Pandamonia, Guessing your post is in 'jest'? No-one, whether they're bulls or bears would 'ever' suggest that stocks move in straight lines and so for us who are on the bleak side of things, yes, we do believe that the stock has significant downside, but clearly not in a few days and weeks and don't believe anyone has ever said that. Late this year and into 2024, when events and rates and the housing market and the state of FTB's will come into greater focus will we all know

Terry, Can I suggest that you look back on various comms we've all had about this previously and if you're interested

Yes mas, totally agree - was really hoping that the 4 days of 'ups' would take us nicely into Friday and it started off so well - ah well, not surprised at where we finished based on the Gatwick news, although the papers are interesting this morning - building up the 'panic', but when they quote industry bodies eg ABTA, they are much more sanguine and say that the airline industry is so much better prepared this year and will have back up plans in place if needed - they also say that unions within the travel sector tend to target key holiday times as it's their best leverage etc etc and which makes total sense, but that most get resolved quickly!

So may have some hangover with the headlines into Monday, but could recoup into next week if any good news flow starts coming out and guess the inflation report next week will likely prove important too - so a decent market next week; decent inflation numbers and a great update from EZJ, could break us through that pesky £6.10 mark - have a brilliant weekend

Hi all,

So today, 14th July, Gladstone has reduced its short position by 0.11% and down to 0.88%, as well as increasing its starting price from 6.87 up to 6.98 euros.

I'm sure they'll keep shaving in the coming weeks and hopefully at the Q3 results in August, the results will be so good that a jump in the SP forces them and Voleon to close in totality.

Finally, lovely to see that both have made a loss on their positions and to the tune of over 1 million euros each, although the link below doesn't show that for GLA, as they've already incorporated the new starting price - enjoy!!

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=TUI%20AG&land=germany

So whilst the SP weakened 'again' towards the pm and close, it's the 4th day of increases and if indeed it manages to increase the SP tomorrow, not only will it be the first time since the RI that the SP has managed 5 days of 'ups' back to back, but it will break the cycle of every Thursday and Friday since the RI of going down on one or both of those days, which has to improve momentum.

So tomorrow is an important day and let's see.

Stupmy, have to say good luck with your thoughts on the £5.17 mark, but have to be honest and think you're way off the mark - think those sorts of levels are in the back rear view mirror. Generally, the overall market sentiment feels positive right now and I believe strongly that this will be reflective in our SP continuing its move upwards and will certainly be cemented tomorrow if we continue upwards and through the low £6 mark

Hi Savage - Many thanks for sharing, although if Tui have the stellar year I'm sharing and which I believe they will, there's no way they would need another RI and thank goodness for that eh - that said, a full on deep recession would change everything and to that we all need to be very conscious etc etc

Hi boyasaka - Of course anything is 'possible' in life and thank goodness for that eh!

So if we reached £14 per share, that would give it a capitalisation of £7.1 Billion, which certainly isn't unheard of, but to get to that heady height, think a few things need to fall into place:

1. As many on here have said, we need stellar updates for Q3 and the full year in December - which I believe will materialise

2. Let's say that they make their £1 billion EBITDAR for their full year results, then they should be able to pay down more debt than already done through the RI and therefore improve the quality of profitability into 2024 and beyond

3. Re-instate a divi - now I have to say that I'd prefer the company to pay down more debt with their profits this year, but if indeed they have a stellar one, they may squeeze out a small divi of say 10 cents and which will only cost them 50 million euros - to be honest, it will be much more about the message and intent than actually doing anything at the end of the year - but do remember, that because Tui is a German owned company, by law they can only pay out a divi alongside the year end results

4. Probably the most important one - we NEED to dodge a recession and/or interest rates need to start falling at the end of the year - if either of these prove true or ideally both prove to be true, alongside inflation, then people will have more disposable and investors will only see positive things when it comes to holidays/flights going forwards into 2024 and beyond

So in summary - do I believe it can happen - absolutely it can, but there are a number of roadblocks as above ahead which need to be cleared first and hope this helps

Stevebt - I know you're an investor and very keen to see the bottom, as we've all been there.

Talking about it though is very different from the reality and GLP haven't closed their short position, they've simply shaved a bit off - you also still have Citadel with an open short position too.

It's the macro that matters and right now, nothing changes and indeed won't change for the foreseeable future - we'll all know the reality in 4 weeks or so at the half year results and have to say that I still believe it won't be a good story at the time - likely pull the interim divi and FTB number bookings will be pretty horrendous and we all know what that will do to the SP - totally understand that this is only my view