Member Info for MikeS02

SKR, Many thanks for sharing thoughts back - ass mentioned earlier, I have a simple mind and a simple thought process - brilliant results tomorrow; firing up the SP significantly and simply hunting out and extinguishing the short sellers in one go! Best wishes

Hi OTCDS2023,

Many thanks for posting - really interesting stuff.

Just a couple of things to add, which hopefully helps:

1. If indeed we post an underlying EBIT for the 9 months in question of 150 million euros, that will be a brilliant result and very well taken by the market I would suggest - why, because that takes them to 'bang in line' with 2019 for the first 9 months - and as importantly, suggests that they can indeed hit the 893 million FY of 2019 too, which would be 'massive' and likely one of the first holiday/tourist companies to actually hit and maybe even exceed 2019 results - it would also confirm what the CEO has been saying in the last two Q's and Half Year of a significant jump in underlying EBIT vs 2022 and from memory, 2022 FY underlying EBIT was 409 million, so around the 900 million mark would be 'significant' and a real achievement

Finally H1 of 2023, underlying EBIT was -395 million euros, so to move that to a surplus of 150 million, is over HALF BILLION addition to EBIT in only 3 months - that would get analysts and investors excited I would suggest!

2. Ref the Greek fires - really hope that they mention absolutely NOTHING in tomorrow's results - why - because they occurred in Q4 and as such, aren't relevant in these results, which to me may well detract from a brilliant comms to the market - not saying hide it away, as of course everyone knows it happened, but bide their time in discussing and releasing details when it suits Tui and not the market - might actually do it in September when they do a pre close announcement to the market - usually they share Q4 information and likely FY then, so seems like the right time to share the fires scenario too

Just my thinking of course and hope it helps - have to say that what you've shared has got me a bit more excited about the positivity of tomorrow and GLA

So here we go yet again - more market manipulation by ii''s/short sellers etc and tanking the price and as evidenced by the fact that all of the other holiday/flight related stocks are down a tiny amount vs us and we've had this scenario over the last few days - shameful, although I simply have one hope and expectation - that the results tomorrow are a blow out and all these idiot manipulators LOSE very big time - that's it for me really, manipulators losing their shirts! GLA

SK and OSG - OSG, totally agree with your synopsis - I too find it 'strange' that all other tourism/flight oriented stocks in the last 3 days have fallen about 3-4%, whilst we have fallen in effect, nearly 10% and for what reason totally alludes me.

SK - Don't believe the movements in the last 3 days have little to do with the UK - it's down to the US, which as we know, if it gets a 'cold' we get the flu etc etc. The downgrade certainly started things off, but looks like this evening, the US stock market is moving in and out of the green and if they maintain the green til close, would suggest that the European markets tomorrow, might also open in the green and the first in 4 days, which might help.

My only 'guess' OSG, is that with both the UK and German markets under quite a bit of pressure in the last 3 days, that because we're dual listed, that this has somehow made our situation and SP worse than the others - the other bit of course is that all of the others have recently declared good results, whilst we are still to declare and that may well have fed into the disparity seen too - guess we might be able to test that hypothesis if both markets are in the green tomorrow and therefore we might see some sort of rebound - if not, have no idea whatsoever. Thought it might be ii's doing their 'thing' or indeed some sort of manipulation, but to be honest, I'm not really in those camps and as such, I'm simply a little confused by the last 3 days and simply hope in some form of reversal tomorrow with a supportive FTSE and DAX

Jezmaster,

I totally agree. Two days ago the bank regulator pretty much insisted on all banks offering below rate saving products to basically explain why that was the case by the end of this month and IF, the regulator isn't convinced, which of course they won't be, then they will enforce corrective rates - that's why this week, all banks are haemorrhaging and if you believe that banks offering low rates will get away with this, which is basically all the Top 5 UK banks, then think again and as above. so I can see the future already - various banks being forced to implement new savings rates at a much higher level which will then clearly impact future and indeed projected NIM baked into future profit forecasts - be prepared

Hi all,

Two other things caught my eye to be honest - the first was the 24% cancellation rate vs 14.4% in H1 2022 and the other was the decline in operating margin from 20.4% in H1 2022 to 14.4% now and resulting in £ operating profit pretty much halved yr on yr - I guess it simply shows what we know, ie that the environment is tough, but of course you don't want too much more declines in these areas as it then becomes problematic

Hi all,

As mentioned a number of times, we often start the week well, with weakness Thursday and Friday.

As we all know, that changed last Friday, when we had the first 'up' day on a Friday since the RI, which was great, albeit at 3.5p!

Today is an important price point though - since the RI, our highest close has been £6.24 and so if we close above this point today, then we will have reached a new high, which technicians will tell you is a strong signal and bodes well for the week - also, you have to think that other investors including ii's may well take a look at us this week and moving into the figures a week on Wednesday - so suggesting a decent week coming up and baring of course any market turbulence etc. GLA

Hi mas,

Yes. totally agree - looking for double digits after the full year results in mid December 2023! GLA

MaryBr190,

Many thanks for sharing, although of course all of this is based on previous performance as you know. As I say, what Tui need to do on the 9th August, is provide clarity on the year end result and as you share and as I've said also, sentiment and expectation is so low right now, that if indeed the BOD do this properly, we will certainly 'pop' - just look at what happened to Rolls Royce this week and very much like Tui - very low expectations etc and they knocked it out of the park

Hiya,

Yes, it's been a pretty long road since the RI and for LTH's, undoubtedly 'hell on earth'.

I think what might play in our favour, is that sentiment is 'so low' and there's certainly no sense of any expectation out there and as I said below, largely because the CEO has consistently quoted the 'significant' word and nothing more concrete, that if indeed the BOD does put in their numbers into the Q3 release for full year, there or there about and why shouldn't they with most of the money in the bank for Summer etc, then that's what I mean - sentiment and expectation very low - deliver substantive numbers that align to their commitments and we're off to a party - famous last words I know, but it's why I invested in Tui straight after the RI having looked at lots of alternatives and hope this helps

Hi botbot1202,

I think it's a good Q and statement you make.

The KEY thing for me will be that Tui gives an update on where EBIT will be at the end of the year - for clarity, at the Q1 and Half Year presentations for this year the CEO quoted 'Tui is on track to deliver a significant increase in FY23 underlying EBIT vs PY' - for comparison, Underlying EBIT was: FY22 409m; FY21 -2,075m; FY20 -3,033m and the KEY one for comparison will be the FY19 of 893m euros - so I know that they stated significant increase vs 2022, but in reality all the analysts etc will compare vs 2019

I guess using the word significant is a decent 'ploy' because it gives them loads of wriggle room, but now is the time to put meat on the bones, just like pretty much everyone else has, eg IAG, EZJ etc etc as it's now much closer to year end and they will have that visibility.

So the absolute key number to look out for and hopefully they publish will be around the FY19 figure for underlying EBIT of 893m euros - then believe the SP will fly!

The second one to watch out for is the Leverage Ratio, which is simply Net Debt divided by Reported EBITDAR and again they made a commitment that the FY 23 Net Leverage Ratio will be less than that in FY19, which at that time was 3.0 - again for clarity, they've always had a Leverage Ratio 'Rule' of between 2.25 - 3.0 for this measure and indeed it's what drives giving out dividends. Now not sure if they'll be able to give total clarity on this one at the next update, but again, if they do, it will be seen as a really strong positive.

If they don't provide any clarity on these 2 key commitments, I'd be hugely frustrated and so will the market and investors and quite rightly they will punish the SP.

BUT, if they do declare where they believe the full year EBIT and Leverage Ratio will end up for FY23, then have no doubts whatsoever, that the SP will fly on the day; analysts will quickly come out and upgrade our stock thereby continuing the rise accordingly into the coming weeks too.

As you say, 'Simple' should be the mantra and as such, the KEY lead figures of the presentation should state that they will fully deliver on their commitments of an underlying EBIT of let's say 800-900m euros and a Leverage Ratio of 2.7 - why not and let's see the SP fly!

Apologies for the length, but just wanted too provide a little bit of clarity ref my thinking and hope it helps..........

Hi mas and Mary - Yes, must have had a 'moment' with regards the Q3 update date - you're of course quite right with the 9th August and many thanks for updating

Hi JY,

Many thanks for your thoughts.

Have to say that I'm a 'total' non believer in share buy backs - I'm an investor and pay me divi ANY day of the week, which I can pocket and spend as I want.

I'd challenge ANYONE to show us all how buybacks add ANY value whatsoever - Barclays SP - so over the last 12 months, Barclays SP has DECLINED by 2p, with various buy backs in place! So on the 27th July 2022 it was £1.5766 - today it's £1.5540.

Compare that to the market - in the UK, grown by 4.7%; in the US, S&P grown by 14.1%

It's shameful and the BOD should be held to account

As I say, buy backs add no value whatsoever and I'm always amused by those who think it does.

Hi OSG,

Many thanks - if interested, please see link as below with the most up to date information - interestingly, with package holidays, they're offering clients up to the 11th August to change; refund etc, which of course is interesting as it's just ahead of our Q3 update on the 14th - hopefully with our Q3 update, it will focus on the 'amazing' Q3 results, with just a line or two on how Rhodes is processing and with temperatures being predicted to actually be BELOW the seasonal norm across the Med this weekend, then hopefully things will have truly settled by then and customers can truly enjoy their hugely earned Summer hols

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/tui-greece-flights-holidays-hotels-093715290.html

Solo - Many thanks for coming back. Of course they can 'always explain' - my point is that BOD's are paid 'hugely' to be ahead of the game and deliver results. In a rate environment that is very unlikely to be repeated for decades to come, they FAIL. If the BOD can't deliver in such an amazing and positive rate environment and they can't make their business model fire on all cylinders, that tells me they have the wrong leaders in place who are incapable of leveraging their business model or simply the wrong leaders and/or the wrong business model - unfortunately as investors, all we seem to do is 'accept the excuses'

Can you believe a bank states it will make less NIM by the end of the year, when it's original full year projection was based on a full year rate of 4.25% and yet now at 5% and undoubtedly rising to 5.75% by the end of the year, they will make LESS money - as I say, what an absolute joke!

Hi all,

Just sharing the link below, which is on the Tui investor site - great to see our CEO visiting Rhodes yesterday and getting a 'true view' of what's really going on etc etc and being amongst customers and colleagues alike

https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/stories/2023/july/2023-07-25-forest-fires-on-rhodes-ceo-ebel-thanks

Oh Stupmy,

Thought you were bigger than this.

I'm certainly not asking anyone to toe any line whatsoever, as you know - I was simply stating a fact with you and if you feel a little bruised by it, then afraid so be it - as I say, you've mentioned your low gaps so many times, I'm an expert myself!

Hi all,

By the way, should have added that current weather experts are predicting a significant 'cooling' down of the affected areas by the weekend as an invigorated jet stream brings in cooler air - the sooner the better eh!

Hi Stupmy,

I read your posts with interest, but would ask that you may like to take a break from posts about the lower gaps etc etc, which to be honest we've all read ad infinitum.

We get that you believe in the lower gaps, but as you've mentioned before, there are upper gaps too, which you rarely share and I'm not looking for any further guidance personally and thanks.

Finally and this is the bit where I feel a post like this is futile, is that all that's happened over the last 2 days, is the macro picture, ie the wild fires have caused tourist/travel/airline stocks to drop - absolutely NOTHING to do with technicals.

I understand that this is only my viewpoint, but may be shared by others - as I say I often enjoy your posts, but right now it's simply the macro and nothing to do with technicals, which I know you'll understand.

What we need is simply for the Greek authorities to say that the fires are now under control and all affected SP's will rise back up!