Member Info for MikeS02

Hi all,

Hope you're all well, apart from the pricing scenario currently, which we're all feeling hit by and hope it passes soon.

As previously shared, I don't hold EZJ, but I do drop in here from time to time as I enjoy (generally) the chat.

Following the announcement last week and reading commentary ref key reasons for the decline, I really do wish that people would actually do some basic research, before throwing out vagaries!

So let me try and help a little - I'm simply sharing what I know ref the Dividend and suggest that one of the key reason's for the fall in recent days is down to a re-rating of the stock and because of the dividend scenario:

I'll take you back to 2019 and before as that's when things were pretty normal - EZJ's Dividend Policy read: Dividend will be paid on the equivalent to 50% of Headline Earnings Per Share and this meant payments PER SHARE, were:

2019 - 43.9p; 2018 - 58.6p; 2017 - 40.9p and 2016 - 53.8p

As we all know, the Board has announced a new Dividend Policy last week which is 10% of PAT for 2023 and then 20% for 2024.

For this year, that will likely translate at approx 2.5p per share

So as you can see, a pretty huge gulf and as such, the stock has and will continue to be re-rated in the short term I'd suggest - undoubtedly a good future, but think it will stall a bit in the next 12 months and based on this re-rating for shareholders

As I say, Please DYOR and hope this helps a little

Hi Poleaxe,

Afraid it doesn't relate to the 'old shares'. The new shares have in effect been traded since the open of the RI and hence why the price has plunged so much, so afraid in % terms nothing will change as of tomorrow, unless there is significant movement in those companies that actually hold the shorted shares etc - all tomorrow does is 'legally' move the new SYNT shares to its new total and hope this helps

Do I need to say anymore??!!

Philpot1001 and those interested in divi calc:

Hi all, seems to be a bit of confusion ref the potential divi payment for FY2023 - so looking at the figures released, the company for FY 2023 is expecting PBT of £440-460M, so let's simply stick with the mid point at £450m which is exactly what the analysts were predicting!

Corporation tax is 25%, so taking that off, leaves £337.5M PAT (I understand there may be various deductions, so may get a little back).

At 10% for FY2023, you're looking at £33.75M divided by 750Million shares and so a divid of approx 4.5p and hope this helps

Hi Poleaxe,

Not quite sure what you mean by the short selling position in SYNT falling to 1.2% tomorrow - simply won't be the case if I'm understanding you properly - if anything it will continue to go up, as the SP continues to decline and the ii's start offloading their positions by offering more shares to short sellers etc - this will especially be true if there is a large rump sale, ie suggest anything greater than 15%

Hi max_run and all,

Brilliant results for you all and huge congrats.

max, just checking that you've calculated based on Profit AFTER tax, which is what I believe the new divi is based on?

Hi fairlysolvent,

Great name by the way and sincerely hope you are in these very uncertain times!

If you look at the top of the page, and under Director Deals, it looks as though he's made 4 sales totalling approx 230k of rights - just interesting that a Director sells approx two thirds of his rights and rather than taking them up in total - guess for me it just would be a confidence sort of thing, but guess for many, doesn't mean too much at all - guess everyone will see come Friday

Hi all,

Whilst not an Easyjet share holder, I do hold Tui, which like all of the Tourism/Flight stocks is very unloved right now and has been for several months by those 'city folk'!

I'm hoping that you have a blow out tomorrow, which will be great for yourselves, but I'm also hoping that it will provide a lift for all Tourism/Flight stocks and then IAG at the end of the month to do the same etc etc.

Hoping that such on-going great news will at long last confirm to ANALysts and ii's what we already know, which is that our market is HUGELY undervalued and it's our time to get noticed by investors for the rest of this year and onwards.

In case you don't know, the city consensus for tomorrow, is Revenues of £8.2 Billion and Pre-Tax Profit of £450 Million.

Again, good luck........................

So a Director of the company has sold 'lots' of nil paid rights to fund tail swallowing - doesn't fill you with loads of confidence eh!!?? Anyway, very best of wishes for Friday, which I know is a very important day for you all

Hi GMHK and all,

With regards Friday this week - if there is a poor take up of the RI, then the rump will be sold to ii's at a price that may well be less than the 197p offered and that's a sizeable risk as if so, then yes, the SP of SYNT will clearly go below the offer price and maybe even on Friday and as others have already stated, ii's will simply have a hay day whilst regular retail investors take all the crap!

Hi m1600,

Many thanks for coming back to me, but I'm not looking in 'any' direction - I'm simply sharing information that people may want to take a look at - nothing less, nothing more.

Best Mike

Hi all,

Whilst I think no long term investor wants to see their shares shorted, it is now a fact of life for many companies and as such, it interests me and hopefully yourselves to see who is shorting Synthomer as of this weekend.

If you look at the first box, you'll see it's second highest shorted in UK stocks (no surprises really during an RI) and if you'd like to know which companies are shorting, simply click on the name - for those who don't know, within the UK, companies shorting stocks of 0.5% or more of stocks in issuance have to legally declare their positions - so what the enclosed will never show of course are those companies etc who take out a short position of less than 0.5%

Just for ref for everyone

https://shorttracker.co.uk

Hi Poleaxe,

Many thanks fro your reply and just as a little point of clarity - as Tui is dual listed on the UK and German stock markets (with the UK market being its main listing), the RI was conducted under both UK and German law and done as separate entities. So I was simply quoting what has happened here within the UK since the RI and hope this clarity helps,

Best Mike

Hi all,

Just thought I'd share as I know some have commented about ii's taking stakes etc.

Exactly the same happened with Tui and assuming AML and others through recent RI's and like some on this board, I took it to be a positive sign in terms of investment etc.

The reason I say 'beware' is that pretty much all of them then took the opportunity to 'loan' shares to various shorters and what became very clear was that they were of course hedging both sides of the fence so too speak - which of course large ii's such as Goldman etc can do.

Not saying that some may simply hold on to their holdings, but with Tui, you started to see multiple short players taking hold and equally the ii's were constantly selling; upping when they saw fit, with the overall being great I'm sure for them and a nightmare for us retail investors as they basically played us like 'toys'! As I shared previously, whilst being an investor for 15 plus years, Tui was my first and only RI stock and the ii's and short sellers still have their claws into us to this day.

The next big watch out for you all will be towards the end of next week and the announcement on how many have taken up the rights - with Tui it was 91% and a 9% rump sale to ii's which again played beautifully into their hands and again in the weeks and months after ii's simply played the market to their tune to clear as and when they saw fit and of course dragging the price down accordingly - what I didn't get at the time and probably many retail investors don't, is that because the ii's can take a stake worth millions, then they will sell for a 5; 10; 15% profit, which for the basic retail investor just wouldn't make sense. As such, it significantly held down the price in the months after the RI closed and just for your reference

I know this sounds 'bitter' and probably it is, but I'm also trying to honestly share what you have to be prepared for and will end it there

Hi pandamonia,

Whilst clearly stating the facts for where you live, it does suggest that prices where you are are TOO high and based on history, although we all know that new builds always ask for a premium to local market conditions.

Whilst you state that there is plenty of margin, I would disagree.

PSN historically has carried an SP premium because of their margins and simply look at their last report and you'll see that the margins are declining rapidly.

It's like any business, it's fine until it's not, ie PSN has had the luxury of strong margins in the last few years, but now that sales are dreadful, they're dipping in to their margins 'big style' and it only goes one way - significant margin erosion,. leading to significant profit decline and at some stage and maybe at their next trading update in November, the pips begin to squeak so much, that they issue a profit warning, which is what I'm expecting.

PSN declines have a LONG way to go into 2024 and afraid likely one of the worst hit - of course just my thinking

AP - I did try to warn you and others as per my previous post and today's drop perfectly mirrors Tui - infact worse, as Tui on the first day fell 50% and you're at 67%.

If you stay invested you HAVE to prepare for more downside as the ii's, the institutional investors now hold all the cards and rest assured, they will play them as and when they want.

More losses tomorrow unfortunately and then into next week, where the SP will undoubtedly fall close to, if not below the RI price - your options are now very limited I'm afraid

Hi all,

Just to add to the commentary - I'm invested in Tui, so absolutely in the same boat.

What is striking though in the last 6 months, is that ALL travel/tourism stocks here in the UK have been hit hard - excluding CCL, which had specific upgrades back in early Summer that has helped that one for sure.

So right now, it's all about sentiment amongst big investors and for whatever reason and what you've already shared will undoubtedly play into that, we basically need a significant shift in sentiment, which will then buoy the whole sector!

Interestingly, travel stocks seemed to do particularly well from October - March last year, so hoping sentiment will shift again during this period and as we head into trading months that tend to be much more positive.

GLA

Hi Savage,

Many thanks for sharing, but some might think you're talking about the value - so absolutely right, he bought 50k shares yesterday and at a value of nearly 225k euros - BIG BUY!! As you say, says loads about the current SP and hopefully it will help accordingly

Best Mike

Hi Marc74 and all,

This will be my last message as I know that everyone simply needs to make a decision that is right for them.

I've already shared my story ref Tui and I guess as an investor you have one Q to ask yourselves - would you be ok with the SP dropping to around the £1.50 mark when this is all done and dusted and if not lower, as AML and Tui for sure, suggest that could be the path of travel.

Mark you mention 1 week in your thinking - as mentioned and it was also relevant with AML, the declines lasted well into months and likely 5-6 months for which you need a cast iron stomach, please believe me! If indeed the SP recovers quickly, I'd truly be delighted for everyone!

That's it and again the very best in whatever you decide to do

Hi all,

Just came across this one and just wanted to share the 'nightmare' of an RI I've just been through over the last 5 months.

I'm invested in Tui, the Travel/Tourism company who carried out a share consolidation of 1-10 and then an RI back in March-April of this year and I simply wanted to share what to expect.

RI's give the 'big boys, the Market Makers' TOTAL POWER and rest assured they will use it every which way they can to manipulate the SP in THEIR FAVOUR!.

To give you an understanding and heads up - Tui after the consolidation, but before the RI was running at about £14 per share (they are dual listed in the German and UK markets with their main listing on the LSE) - once the RI commenced it immediately plunged in one day to around £7.50 and then further over subsequent days into the £5's, where it remained for many weeks - highest it's got to over the 5 months since the RI was £6.30 back in mid July 2023.

TERP was meant to be £8.30 and is a pipe dream right now with the SP at £4.37 as of today.

I actually invested after the RI, but I'm still underwater 25%, whilst LTH's of the stock are down 60-70% - for clarity Tui's RI price was £4.88 per share.

I totally understand that your Company is in a different market, but at a time of significant market volatility and high inflation; high rates etc etc, as I say above, your Company will be a 'gift' for huge manipulation by the Market Makers, as they were and unfortunately still are with Tui.

Clearly it's your choice, but I'm sure that if you'd ask ANY Tui LTH if they'd have a choice in hindsight to sell out before the RI, they would bite your hand off literally.

Just wanted to share and if you do decide to stay invested; take up the rights etc, there's one thing I can guarantee you in the coming months - HUGE volatility in the SP and you'll need tough grit to get through it all - as for me, right now I certainly regret getting involved even after the RI - could that be different in 6 months - of course it could and I'm hoping, but significant upside needs to occur in order for me to get back on side.

So I'll finish off by stating that this is clearly only about Tui and as shared above, your Company is in a very different market.

It's also a very personal journey and share for me and whilst I've invested for 15 years, this was my first investment after an RI - for ME, I'll NEVER look at any share going through an RI ever again.

If you do decide to take up the RI, I genuinely wish you the VERY BEST and PLEASE DYOR and hope this little insight helps