Member Info for MikeS02

I'm new to housebuilders, but possibly looking to invest - have been looking at all of the housebuilders and for me it's come down to Persimmon vs Taylor Wimpey and as such, will certainly be watching their market updates a week Thursday and Friday. Just wanted to share one thing about 2008 and as it's been mentioned a few times below - the key difference for me is back in 2008, all the house builders had pretty significant debt, whereas now, they have none or very little and for me this is a major consideration ref being able to remain profitable and provide a decent dividend too. Persimmon back in 2008 had debt of £900 Million - debt now as you all know is ZERO! Certainly interested to hear next week's updates - I do have one Q though if you don't mind which I simply cannot find anywhere online or maybe I'm simply misunderstanding the basics - does anyone know how much Persimmon 'spends' in a typical year building its units etc - sorry if this is a really basic Q, but again for me, will. really help me to understand how much cash they will need each year to weather the storm going forwards, whilst hopefully being able to pay out a decent divi too? Thanks and really appreciate any support

paradrummer and all - please take a look at the link - it gives key facts about nurses in the UK - so one fact is that whilst 27k nurses left; some 48k nurses joined and of course it's these sorts of facts that we should know about without having to find them ourselves etc. Also, pay isn't mentioned as one of the top 10 reasons for leaving - just wish facts were provided so that as a country we could have a decent and proper conversation etc

Hope it helps and everyone have a brilliant Christmas and 2023

https://www.nurses.co.uk/blog/stats-and-facts-uk-nursing-social-care-and-healthcare/

Totally agree Berlinner and Phippsy - so the very least a nurse will get is £27k and that's for a nurse starting his or her role - average nurse pay is c£35k and indeed many nurses earn in excess of £40k, which for Millions of people is way above what they can earn. Phippsy, as you mention, we clapped for ALL essential workers, including bin collectors; those working in supermarkets and local stores etc etc and certainly NOT just for the NHS. There is NO WAY that I and I'm assuming millions of others would support a 19% pay increase - it's fantasy land and the RCN have simply got their backs against the wall with this and as such, is trying anything and everything to put the blame on the government - the 4.75% pay award was a decent one and they should get NO MORE this year - next year they should negotiate with the government accordingly. Oh and here's an interesting piece of information if you're interested - the RCN recently bragged about the fact that they had a £50 Million warchest for strikes - well they pay nurses £50 each per strike day - which by the way is less than HALF what the nurse could be earning on their lowest pay band - so with c100,000 on strike out of a total of nearly 800k nurses in the UK, then in two days they've spent £10 Million - another 8 strike days and they'll be 'bust'! Er, what do you think Rishi will do!!

Hi DT - Not sure if this one is a joke? If not, maybe it should be, as have to say in the 20 years or so investing, I've NEVER heard of this one and have to say that I think the site name says it all - WE BULL!! Tickled me though

Hi Bhants - Market expectations are important because lots of highly paid analysts are employed by and followed by big institutions to predict company performance based on a whole range of metrics and if these fail to materialise, then something has changed negatively to the downside and for that reason, the stock tends to get hit and in the current environment, hit hard - this can also play to the upside with any upside surprises and so it's not just one way. Of course we never complain when these analysts 'upgrade' a stock, which NWG has had numerous times in recent months and again, because such analysts are followed by many big investors, when there is an increase in their assessment, then of course the stock tends to rise accordingly. Finally though and based on your final thoughts - there's loads of unknowns right now, from the next budget and what will happen with taxes; to whether the BOE will change how much interest they pay banks for holding their money on deposit and for NWG this aspect could be quite a substantial hit to their future profitability and dependent on how long such a move might last; through to the war in Ukraine; inflation; interest rate increases etc etc So think the next 6-12 months will still be highs and lows unfortunately and probably until the Fed in the US 'pivots' away from aggressive rate hikes, which I don't see until mid 2023 at the earliest, then this also could put a dampener on things in the short to medium term - certainly not trying to be negative, just highlighting what probably most people know about the current and on-going risks, which of course don't just affect banks, but indeed everyone - hope this helps and of course it's simply my thinking

Just sharing my opinion on tomorrow's Q3 results - think they'll 'kitchen sink' the results unfortunately as I believe the other banks have this week too - believe it's simply to ward off further tax hits from the UK government and by kitchen sinking, they'll hope that this keeps the tax man at bay!!

Hello Alas_Smith - Whilst I 'am' retired, I've been using drawdown for the last 4 years - here's a thought for you though - how about an annuity? Clearly these were 'pants' in a low rate environment, but I asked my financial advisor to do me some numbers last week and my goodness, how things have already changed and like you, believe that Bailey and co will have no choice but to put 200 points onto the base rate by Christmas and as such, annuities will only get stronger into 2023 - just a thought and good luck in your endeavours

Scad, Think you reply is appalling and will be reporting it accordingly - shameful

Scad, Whilst I understand your comment, I think you need to be a little bit more respectful of many readers who might be harbouring large losses right now and under significant stress. Maybe, just maybe keep your triumphalism close to hand and rather than sharing - just a thought

Alas_Smith - Good luck with your purchase, although I sold out at £2.26 a couple of weeks ago - simply far too many risks for me - from the current gilt issues which for me can only get worse over the coming days and have no doubts there will be 'panic' when the BOE stops buying at the end of Friday - they will either have to re-start and keep up for a long time, or sterling will be hammered again and likely parity with the dollar, which will simply drive up inflation even higher. Strongly believe that the rising rates scenario is more than offset by this and other world events, such as a strong dollar; rising fuel costs again from the cut in production from Opec+, which will also add to inflation and also crazy Putin getting more desperate than ever and goodness knows what that will bring - so for me, simply too many negatives happening and simply happy to leave things alone for quite a while and until I can see the dust settling - but believe this will be at least 6 months away! For you and other investors though, simply wish you all the very best

Hi Cllwyd, Think your Q is a very reasonable one. I have to say that unfortunately for me, I think there is a way to go downwards as yet and for the following reasons - the US market certainly hasn't bottomed and as much as we would love our FTSE to be an island, it isn't of course, so at a top level this in itself will put downward pressure on all stocks until a bottom is reached and that won't be until there is capitulation in the market which history shows HAS to happen for a bear market bottom to form - so a while yet. Clearly the tax plans are a negative for our stock, in that they will 'force' the BOE to ramp up rates in the near term and whilst this would normally be advantageous to banks, there is clearly a growing risk of mortgage defaults occurring if the rate reaches 5 or 6% and the bank having to set aside monies to cover accordingly and from my perspective, this is a growing and important issue for all banks in the UK - so the bank was very upbeat at the half year and with no monies set aside for possible defaults, so what they say and do at the end of the month could be a significant market mover for us. Finally, if ultimately the world goes into recession later this year and into 2023, then again there will undoubtedly be further pressure on possible defaults etc - so in one sentence, Q3 results are going to determine our sp direction for a number of months going forward - let's hope it's a surprise to the upside eh!! Historically, I've been very positive, but believe that the market and sentiment has darkened in the last month or so and hence my 'downer'

Hiya NL again, Just feeling a little guilty in not saying this too in my other post, so here goes - as we know, the people I've quoted and many other senior investment people operate in the Billions arena and as such, they have a lot or 'space' to manoeuvre in and their investments. For us mere mortals, it's OUR money for one and as you state, losing can be VERY painful. So the key point I should have added in my first post, is this - as it's OUR money, only ourselves know how far we can let an investment fall and especially if it's our ONLY investment. So please, if it's either getting hugely stressful for you or the level at which the current price stands is at the lowest point you can afford to lose, then you should seriously consider selling. I hope this helps and as usual, we've ALL sold at a loss at sometime during our investments and knowing the right time to sell is as important as finding the right price to enter a stock too - hope this helps and again, good luck

Hiya NL - Like others on this forum, I've been around the block a few times and invested in shares for around 20 years or so. Whenever there are issues in the market, I look to 'real and amazingly talented investors' such as Warren Buffet and Mohamed El-Erian, which again I've followed for a number of years and for their wise words and wisdom - can I suggest if you haven't linked in with their theories etc, it might be worth a look. So taking Mr Buffet - one of his mantras is 'run when everyone is being greedy and be greedy when everyone else is running' - so right now, he'll undoubtedly be adding to his portfolios of stocks! These two and many other long term investors will also tell you that you have only LOST money when you CASH IN - so right now, you might FEEL that your stock value is diminishing, but it's ONLY true when you press that button to sell - I've certainly had a number of moments like you and I'm sure many others have too - what I found hugely valuable a few days ago at the weekend and listening to a guy on Bloomberg was ' Investors who get rich, do so by buying into a really good quality company; with great cashflow and profitability and ability to grow and by staying with those companies until they achieve a price they believe is right to sell'! So a down market may well delay when you get 'rich', but stay the course and likely you will and provided you've chosen the correct companies to be with! So I hope this helps a little - for me, NWG ticks these boxes and I'll be happy to stay the course and hoping that one day, they will get to a place where I will indeed feel 'rich' - whatever you chose, good luck and best wishes

What's wrong with Bailey and our committee - they are simply losing ground vs other major countries around the world and I strongly believe, losing trust and indeed confidence within the financial community. So numerous country banks have this week raised their rates by at least 75 basis points, with a couple 100 basis points and Bailey goes with the meagre 50 basis points. This will CRUSH sterling even more over the coming weeks and months and as LOADS of 'stuff' is bought in US dollars, we'll simply be importing MUCH MORE inflation than would be necessary if Bailey et al 'WOKE UP'.
It's still ok for NWG as the assumptions at the half year with their updated forecasts etc were based on a rate of 2% for the full 2022 year, so already above that and with undoubtedly a couple more rises on the agenda, then more money flowing in and hopefully into our pockets into 2023. Bailey though needs to get his act together in the WORLD arena, or be sacked

Hi Pantherax,
What a to do eh!! Many thanks for your clarity back and update and apologies, I was simply working on the £'s and of course your query was about the pence - so a lesson learned before commenting!! Certainly sounds a little strange on the calculation side, but from a £'s point of view, you're good to ENJOY the payout!

Hi Pantherax,
Afraid BOTH payments are absolutely correct - thought you were using the incorrect special divi, but you quote it correct too - just thought I'd let you know - not quite sure what you've done, but key thing is payments are correct

Just to keep you in the picture if you're unaware - so the government has sold some shares on the 15th September - just declared on our NWG site today - have reduced their holding from 48% to 46.91%, so hopefully lots more in the offing and especially as our share price is doing well - hope the update helps

jimjam, Actually think that the BOE will certainly raise by 50 points next week, if not 75 points and for a few reasons really - so believe that the fiscal budget is now happening on the 23rd September and with this in mind together with the recent news on the energy cap for consumers and likely something for businesses too - ALL of this puts money back into people's pockets and likely raises consumption and possibly inflation too - so believe the BOE will have no choice but to counter this with rate rises - also a big concern for the BOE must be how sterling is trading and again, with the US rate setters undoubtedly announcing another 75 points next week, the further we fall behind in rate terms, the weaker sterling will be and meaning anything bought in dollars, which of course is loads and loads of stuff will simply get more expensive; fuelling inflation even more - so guess we'll see of course, but believe there are far too many reasons for Bailey not to act and quite decisively too

Hi all,
Just coming through with an update to the GAP analysis I do vs Barclays and which I've done over the last 14 years since I owned the stock - back after the financial crash, Barclays' sp was always significantly ahead of ours and remained so for a number of years. About 5 years ago, sp's started to match and then ours moved ahead by about 30p and again for about 3 years or so - in the last two years though, ours has moved forward with conviction and I'm delighted to share that as of today, our GAP in sp vs Barclays has hit the £1 mark - so us at £2.69, vs Barclays at £1.69 and it's the highest GAP since I started monitoring it - guess we all know that our bank is 'in favour' and this vs Barclays simply confirms - indeed I'm certain the same would be true of Lloyds too and with them 'stuck' mid 40p's, don't see any momentum for them in the near term. Clearly the city and major investors like our story; like our capital and like Ms Rose as our CEO - so onwards and upwards and just thought I'd share such a key metric

Hi everyone, So thought I'd share a little thinking and following two days of good increases in sp - it reflects what others are saying, but in black and white, hope it helps:

So a little while ago we hit our 52 week high of £2.63 - in terms of where this would sit following share consolidation and of course the half year divi too, it's as simple as adding back in the 20p, so to get us back to the 'reality' of a new high following the half year pay out, the sp to watch for is £2.83 - at this price, not only has the price truly reflected the value of our shares ref the previous 52 week high, but then in reality too, we've all pocketed our money 'for free'!! Finishing at tonight's close, we're only 14.5p away - so wouldn't it be superb it we moved to this figure for this Friday and pay out day!! Hope it helps and just thought I'd share